What is the cost of isolationism?

So, according to a study by a consortium of analysts, the difference between open and closed trade policies could cost the U.S. economy $2 trillion by 2022. The study by Zurich Insurance, Ernst & Young, the Atlantic Council and the Organization for International Investment also found that isolationism could spur the loss of 1.3 million jobs. However, another scenario is U.S. focus trade on Europe and the Americas to the detriment of other trade partners, would result in the loss of $502 billion in GDP and 428,000 jobs. And third possibility, if the trade is increased and import taxes and restrictions on movement scaled back, would add $505 billion to the economy relative to current projections and produce an additional 428,000 jobs.

Now question is, which of these options the administration will follow?

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Issue is the that U.S. economy will remain strong over the next three years and no matter which of these administration use, it will take credit for it. But happens next....

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Republicans are now campaigning on positive effects from its tax policies ahead of November's midterm elections, arguing that the law will boost jobs, wages and investments. My concern is that is all shallow. Very few of the companies that benefited on tax reform will channel their tax savings into new U.S. investments.

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1 minute ago, Stephen said:

Republicans are now campaigning on positive effects from its tax policies ahead of November's midterm elections, arguing that the law will boost jobs, wages and investments. My concern is that is all shallow. Very few of the companies that benefited on tax reform will channel their tax savings into new U.S. investments.

combined with 2 trillion in national debt from the republican tax scam 

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No wonder the majority of investors forecast a U.S. recession in the next two years, while some economists warned that U.S. growth would not keep pace with its fast-mounting budget deficit, on track to top $1 trillion by 2020. Even billionaire Microsoft founder Bill Gates said recently that another recession like that of 2008 was "a certainty."

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Just now, Meanwhile said:

No wonder the majority of investors forecast a U.S. recession in the next two years, while some economists warned that U.S. growth would not keep pace with its fast-mounting budget deficit, on track to top $1 trillion by 2020. Even billionaire Microsoft founder Bill Gates said recently that another recession like that of 2008 was "a certainty."

small victories, elaborated by Twitter feed, are only for voters

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U.S. trade team meeting with Chinese officials. - it is called negotiations. Have some patience

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4 minutes ago, JohnAtronis said:

U.S. trade team meeting with Chinese officials. - it is called negotiations. Have some patience

While he is negotiating, planting season of soybean has already begun, and farmers have no idea how much to plant. We sell half of our soybean crop to China.

 

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3 minutes ago, Hajga Loma DK said:

While he is negotiating, planting season of soybean has already begun, and farmers have no idea how much to plant. We sell half of our soybean crop to China.

 

liberals always looking at the immediate future 

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Just now, JohnAtronis said:

liberals always looking at the immediate future 

no. I just took soybean farmers as example. They cant afford Trump's tactics.  They rely on cash flow. 

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People should just read up about Brexit to see what will happen to the US. Basically, the forecast is that workers will earn less while the cost of living will go up. Tell me how that is a good thing. Also, businesses are leaving the UK and before it's over people will fully realize what they wanted is nothing so wonderful.

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5 minutes ago, Hajga Loma DK said:

no. I just took soybean farmers as example. They cant afford Trump's tactics.  They rely on cash flow. 

China just stopped exporting all American Soybeans, they were our largest consumer at 30% until trump's trade war

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Look at the stock market since in the last 12 months. The prediction for the 2018 GDP has been scaled back from 3% to 2.3%. GOP prognosticators are forecasting a 30 to 40% market correction to be imminent. 

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i suggest the reading of Us vs them by Ian Bremmer, a very useful reading for this thread.. 

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haven't read that, would welcome your brief 'review'. for those who don't know about it ... 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-05-07 at 9.34.03 AM.png

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I am allergic to soybean and believe me soybean farmers are making as much as the oil industry. Just like oil in cars, soybeans are in every damned USA household. I am and this is the truth, thinking of growing the beans myself. Those farmers are rich!!!!! Otherwise, me being a newer member cant decided educated which route it should go exactly, but to me, it seems more money and more jobs seem like the best route to go for the short and long term. So, I hope it goes the third. 

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17 minutes ago, valarie said:

I am allergic to soybean and believe me soybean farmers are making as much as the oil industry. Just like oil in cars, soybeans are in every damned USA household. I am and this is the truth, thinking of growing the beans myself. Those farmers are rich!!!!! Otherwise, me being a newer member cant decided educated which route it should go exactly, but to me, it seems more money and more jobs seem like the best route to go for the short and long term. So, I hope it goes the third. 

Um, I grew up on a farm in the Midwest in the USA.  50 head of dairy cows, and 2 square miles of farmland.

The biggest source of our family farm income was from milk.

The next biggest source of income was from soybeans (raw crop used to make margarine and vegetable oil). 

Other cash crops were wheat, oats, and corn.

I left the family farm early on, to see the cities in the USA.  Been to all 48 lower states.  Couldn't wait to get off the farm, because dairy cows don't take vacations, ever.  Dairy cows need to be milked twice a day, every day, 365 days a year.  We started milking at 5:00 am and 5:00 pm every day.  Looking back, I had a strong work ethic engrained in me early on.  These days, I'm normally up at 4:30 every morning, including weekends.  So I can get a lot of stuff done before lunch.

Anyway, both of my parents are in their 80s.  Way past retirement age.  Both working full time on the farm, 7 days a week.  Waking up Every. Single. Morning. 7 days a week, working full time on the farm.  (See, that 4:30 am wakeup stayed with me, even after I left the farm.)  Normal working day is 14 or so hours.  Every. Single. Day.

They can't retire.  They are not rich.  Hard working - you bet your @$$ they work hard.  Rich?  Nope.  Taxes eat up most of the small amount of profits they make from busting their @$$ every single day.

So. ... I take issue with your view about soybean farmers being rich.  Been there, done that.  Soybean farmers ain't rich, by any stretch of the imagination.

Go do some hard physical labor on a soybean farm for a few weeks.  Pretty sure your viewpoint will change.  A few weeks of planting, cultivating, pulling weeds for 14 hours a day, picking up rocks in the field so the rocks don't break the plowshares, then harvesting 20 hour days to beat the rain... yeah, that doesn't really fit the idea of being "rich".

My Dad says he will work on the farm until the day he dies.  Ain't no retiring in farming.  On the other hand, it's good, honest labor.  No sales slogans, no marketing meetings.  Just hard, physical work. Thankfully, my parents love farming.

Anyway, you may want to rethink that "rich soybean farmer" idea.  Cause it ain't true.

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Thats who built America.. thank you for sharing!
 

 

 

 

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Being more inclusive should be of utmost importance to all employers in an increasingly diverse society and competitive global marketplace.
 

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