Trump's Iran Announcement Won't Affect Oil Prices?

"We've already seen that bullishness factored in over the past few weeks ... The markets have already reacted to the expectation of less supplies going forward," Alejandro Barbajosa, vice president at Argus Media, told CNBC's Nancy Hungerford."

I don't know. I still think even without the element of surprise the announcement will push prices up, even a little for a while. Now, if it has an element of surprise, on the other hand...

 

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Dr. Fly, a financial contrarian wag with a strong irreverant streak that I read occasionally, posted this today:

==============================

IRAN OIL IRAN OIL IRAN OIL IRAN OIL TRUMP IRAN OIL IRAN OIL

"Dr. Fly  Mon May 7, 2018 

Nothing will happen.

Deal gets axed — oil goes down.

Deal gets done — oil goes down.

From now until the end of January, oil is dead money. Move on or prove me wrong."

==============================

Which goes entirely against the grain of the current Mainstream Media oil bull run / stampede.

Personally, I tend to think that Trump may indeed pull the plug on the Iran deal.  But what that will do to oil prices .... I don't really have an opinion yet.  Taking incertainty out of the picture may indeed deflate the oil risk baloon a bit.  Will have to wait and see.
 

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It's interesting what he will decide after lashing out at OPEC for pushing prices too high. He must be aware that a withdrawal from the deal will only push them higher -- it would make sense, even if Western Europe is not with him this time. So, if he doesn't like prices where they are now, he wouldn't like them even a penny higher, I'd think. But his animosity towards Iran pulls in the other direction. Interesting.

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Will Oil prices really 'stabilize' after the US - Iran Nuclear impasse ?

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10 hours ago, HILLARY said:

Will Oil prices really 'stabilize' after the US - Iran Nuclear impasse ?

sanctions on Iran's oil exports could cause the price of oil to surge across the globe

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Cokiga Damke said:

sanctions on Iran's oil exports could cause the price of oil to surge across the globe

Really?  Why?

Are we stimulus / response rats trapped in a maze?

Why exactly would sanctions on oil prices cause a spike in global oil prices - besides the goading of KSA.

Pretend I'm a stupid 3rd grader.  How exactly does sanctions on Iran justify a global spike in oil prices?  Does it mean the world will end next week, so what the heck, let's all pay more for oil?

(I haven't had any sleep for the last couple days, so I really am pretty stupid this morning...)

Edited by Tom Kirkman
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6 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Really?  Why?

Are we stimulus / response rats trapped in a maze?

 

We as a species hardly but day traders are exactly that, with all due respect, which, I admit, is not much. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry.

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12 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

We as a species hardly but day traders are exactly that, with all due respect, which, I admit, is not much. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry.

My turn to apologize.  Was traveling overseas this week, jet lag, and hadn't slept much for 2 days.  Last night no sleep at all - I can't sleep sitting up on planes.  So I was a bit cranky from sleep deprivation; please accept my apologies. 

(The meeting and site visit was a smashing success, so the trip was very much worth while.  I just needed to get some sleep afterwards, and get back in my usual time zone...)

● What I find bizarre is that during a bull run, any excuse whatsoever seems to be used to justify an increase in prices, due to potential risk.

● But during a bear run, any excuse whatsoever seems to be used to justify a decrease in prices, due to potential oversupply.

Hence my stimulus / response rats in a maze comment (I minored in Behavioral Psychology).

But educated humans are smarter than lab rats.  At least I hope we are.

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11 hours ago, Cokiga Damke said:

sanctions on Iran's oil exports could cause the price of oil to surge across the globe

My worries. Overly high oil prices could eventually hurt the world economy and it feels so sad. The overall global growth trajectories appears somewhat fragile and the world economy does not need these spikes in oil prices at this point in time ......

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The return of US sanctions could knock off part of the iranian oil production... or maybe just switch iranian export to markets less sensitive to sanctions?

China could absorb a greater part of iranian exports paid in petroyuan instead of...  importing US shale oil.

 

The US sanctions imposed before the iranian deal didn't affect the volume of exports to China, India and Turkey...

Résultat de recherche d'images pour "iranian oil exports destination"

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13 hours ago, Cokiga Damke said:

sanctions on Iran's oil exports could cause the price of oil to surge across the globe

Sarcasm from this end! I do not want to  think oil prices can inch towards $100 per barrel.It will be dampening in the final analysis . We do not need oil prices breaking new 'ground' at this point please !!!!!

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(edited)

< ahem >   Remember that risk thing I just mentioned above?  Here's an update.  Oil traders gonna act like stimulus / response lab rats:

Oil Surges, 10Y Yield Back Over 3%, Futures Jump In Iran Deal Fallout

"...But the most closely watched response was how oil would react, and sure enough the bulls have enjoyed the upper hand for now with WTI reversing Tuesday’s "fake CNN news" inspired slump to briefly surpass $71 per barrel, a new 4 year high, while Brent nudged $77 as the market came to terms with a U.S. message that buyers of Iranian crude have six months to curb their purchases."

=============================

And yep, I am very much aware this directly flies in the face of my minority opinion that Iran and the USA will normalize relations by the end of this this year, by the end of 2018. 

No worries.  I'll still accept friendly wagers; I'm 90% confident of my view.

Edited by Tom Kirkman

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20 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Really?  Why?

Are we stimulus / response rats trapped in a maze?

Why exactly would sanctions on oil prices cause a spike in global oil prices - besides the goading of KSA.

Pretend I'm a stupid 3rd grader.  How exactly does sanctions on Iran justify a global spike in oil prices?  Does it mean the world will end next week, so what the heck, let's all pay more for oil?

(I haven't had any sleep for the last couple days, so I really am pretty stupid this morning...)

I am ready to pay more. I am not sure about those chanting MAGA in late 2016. Don't forget that Americans are spoiled, cheap cars, cheap fuel, cheap milk. And still demand top notch service. In Europe fuel is $8 per gallon, cars are 30% more expensive...

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On 5/9/2018 at 2:14 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

My turn to apologize.  Was traveling overseas this week, jet lag, and hadn't slept much for 2 days.  Last night no sleep at all - I can't sleep sitting up on planes.  So I was a bit cranky from sleep deprivation; please accept my apologies. 

(The meeting and site visit was a smashing success, so the trip was very much worth while.  I just needed to get some sleep afterwards, and get back in my usual time zone...)

● What I find bizarre is that during a bull run, any excuse whatsoever seems to be used to justify an increase in prices, due to potential risk.

● But during a bear run, any excuse whatsoever seems to be used to justify a decrease in prices, due to potential oversupply.

Hence my stimulus / response rats in a maze comment (I minored in Behavioral Psychology).

But educated humans are smarter than lab rats.  At least I hope we are.

You state "But educated humans are smarter than lab rats.". Don't be too sure.

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