Was Trump's Iran Move Bad for US?

[Royalblood + 14]

Thought it might be time to start a list of all the ways Trump's Iran withdrawal could go very badly: 

1. Give Tehran the idea that it can freely pursue a nuclear weapons program (what incentive does it have not to, now, if it's going to be sanctioned anyway?)

2. Gives Iran the moral high ground (Iran can now claim that it upheld all of its agreements and the US backed out, so it becomes a martyr) and weakens the alliance between U.S. and Europe.

3. Could empower the hardliners in Iran and weaken the moderates;

4. Iran will likely now seek to aid the Taliban in Afghanistan in order to boost influence there as the U.S. departs

5. China will use petro-yuan to buy oil from Iran ... this will be a great gift for the yuan crude contracts that have just launched, furthering the demise of the 'petro-dollar'

[William Edwards + 708]

1 hour ago, Royalblood said:

Thought it might be time to start a list of all the ways Trump's Iran withdrawal could go very badly: 

1. Give Tehran the idea that it can freely pursue a nuclear weapons program (what incentive does it have not to, now, if it's going to be sanctioned anyway?)

2. Gives Iran the moral high ground (Iran can now claim that it upheld all of its agreements and the US backed out, so it becomes a martyr) and weakens the alliance between U.S. and Europe.

3. Could empower the hardliners in Iran and weaken the moderates;

4. Iran will likely now seek to aid the Taliban in Afghanistan in order to boost influence there as the U.S. departs

5. China will use petro-yuan to buy oil from Iran ... this will be a great gift for the yuan crude contracts that have just launched, furthering the demise of the 'petro-dollar'

I am sure that as soon as the Iranian leaders reach your level of understanding as to how good this withdrawall is for them, they will express their heartfelt gratitude to Mr. Trump for his generosity toward them.

[Rodent + 1,424]

Chile is now buying Iranian crude too. Weird. 

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/chile-in-rare-purchase-of-iranian-crude-oil-sources-26959963

[Carlsbad + 19]

And here's more on the 'petro-yuan' promotion idea from Reuters: 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-nuclear-china-oil/iran-oil-sanctions-could-advance-chinas-petro-yuan-idUSKBN1IB32H

China is positioned to be a chief beneficiary of the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal as it would give China leverage to demand oil imports be priced in yuan, several currency experts said on Thursday.

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

So basically, what we have here is yet another blessing in disguise from Trump. At least a blessing for some. I really don't mind Europe trying to stand on its own two-or 30+-- feet for a change and China advancing the yuan, but #3 is worrying. I doubt Iran would try to start working on nuclear weapons -- the European signatories of the deal are important clients and there's no point in risking angering them.

[William Edwards + 708]

23 hours ago, Rodent said:

Chile is now buying Iranian crude too. Weird. 

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/chile-in-rare-purchase-of-iranian-crude-oil-sources-26959963

Consistent with the refiners' motto, Rodent - "If it is cheap enough I will buy it!"

[Tomasz + 1,608]

For 4 years I thought how after a 2 years market share war to reconcile interest of shale producers  (much higher market share and good price) with Russia and Saudi Arabia (also high price but defending market share from shale ).

 And now suddenly  I  get inspiration - sanctions on Iran and Venezuela is perfect solution.

Well sometimes I thought that the weakest players should be limited in market share  but after nuclear agreeent I didn't think it would be Iran.

Edited May 17, 2018 by Tomasz

[William Edwards + 708]

33 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

For 4 years I thought how after a 2 years market share war to reconcile interest of shale producers  (much higher market share and good price) with Russia and Saudi Arabia (also high price but defending market share from shale ).

 And now suddenly  I  get inspiration - sanctions on Iran and Venezuela is perfect solution.

Well sometimes I thought that the weakest players should be limited in market share  but after nuclear agreeent I didn't think it would be Iran.

What took you so long?What took you so long?

[jose chalhoub + 388]

On 5/10/2018 at 9:46 AM, Rodent said:

Chile is now buying Iranian crude too. Weird. 

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/chile-in-rare-purchase-of-iranian-crude-oil-sources-26959963

Very rare if you consider that now Chile is under capitalist rule of Sebastian Pinera...