The Quad naval alliance forming.

[0R0 + 6,251]

India is finalizing creation of a Quad of Pacific navies to stand against China. Australia Japan India and US.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-take-a-call-on-australias-inclusion-in-malabar-exercises-with-japan-us/article32034664.ece

Will apparently have Australia join in 4 way exercises.

@Wombat's projected action to sink the Chinese navy appears to be coming right along.

China wins new friends and influences people.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

On 7/11/2020 at 10:13 PM, 0R0 said:

India is finalizing creation of a Quad of Pacific navies to stand against China. Australia Japan India and US.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-take-a-call-on-australias-inclusion-in-malabar-exercises-with-japan-us/article32034664.ece

Will apparently have Australia join in 4 way exercises.

@Wombat's projected action to sink the Chinese navy appears to be coming right along.

China wins new friends and influences people.

Looks like it is heating up a smidge...

 

https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqdQgKIm9DQklTVFRvSmMzUnZjbmt0TXpZd1NrQUtFUWkycHBtZWtJQU1FZTNReXFVSkNjeXpFaXRWVXlCeVpXcGxZM1J6SUVKbGFXcHBibWNuY3lCVGIzVjBhQ0JEYUdsdVlTQlRaV0VnWTJ4aGFXMXpLQUFQAQ?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

Edited July 14, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[0R0 + 6,251]

It is only a question of time till Philippines Malaysia and Vietnam are "protected" by the Quad navies as they show up on the Chinese reef and sand islands and claim them for themselves under the protective umbrella. I can see some of them perhaps becoming new bases for members of the Quad.

I don't believe the Chinese thought they could go on with this for long before their actions cause a counter attack. It was just a matter of the regional powers organizing to act. When we see joint Quad exercises with Vietnam Philippines and Malaysia we will know they are ready to evict the Chinese.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

59 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

It is only a question of time till Philippines Malaysia and Vietnam are "protected" by the Quad navies as they show up on the Chinese reef and sand islands and claim them for themselves under the protective umbrella. I can see some of them perhaps becoming new bases for members of the Quad.

I don't believe the Chinese thought they could go on with this for long before their actions cause a counter attack. It was just a matter of the regional powers organizing to act. When we see joint Quad exercises with Vietnam Philippines and Malaysia we will know they are ready to evict the Chinese.

I would suggest they are being given a eviction notice. It is one thing to align a political power base it is another thing to steam in two carrier groups. 

[specinho + 439]

On 7/12/2020 at 1:13 PM, 0R0 said:

India is finalizing creation of a Quad of Pacific navies to stand against China. Australia Japan India and US.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-take-a-call-on-australias-inclusion-in-malabar-exercises-with-japan-us/article32034664.ece

 

Shall this explain why they should stand alone?

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 7/12/2020 at 3:13 PM, 0R0 said:

India is finalizing creation of a Quad of Pacific navies to stand against China. Australia Japan India and US.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-take-a-call-on-australias-inclusion-in-malabar-exercises-with-japan-us/article32034664.ece

Will apparently have Australia join in 4 way exercises.

@Wombat's projected action to sink the Chinese navy appears to be coming right along.

China wins new friends and influences people.

Indeed, that is why I am so happy that Trump won the last election. China would have walked all over Hillary "Surrender-monkey" Clinton. Did you know that the UK's new carrier will also be based in the Far East? Not exactly sure where, but my guess is Singapore. Japan is also building carriers, and the two Australian "amphibious landing ships" look remarkably like carriers that could handle the F-35C if we ever buy that variant as well  The US will not strike this year IMHO, the alliance is approx 24 months away from full strength. All about the JSF (which India also announced last week it will be buying), plus the first US Ford class carrier is still in commissioning process. You would be surprised how many US interests are at stake in this region, whether it be Chevron's LNG plants in Western Australia, or the fact that Taiwan produces 80% of global memory chips. Taiwan Semi-conductor is opening a $12bn factory in US, all part of the preparations. Covid has also woken us all up to the necessity to break China's monopolies on rare earth metals and even pharmaceutical raw ingredients. I don't know what progress is being made on the pharma side, but the rare earths will be produced in USA within 24 months, with the assistance of the Pentagon. That is what is also key to the timing, as much as more F35's and perhaps a second Ford class carrier. Not sure how many Wasp class carriers the US will have by then, but they also very potent projectors of power.

[Wombat + 1,028]

18 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It is only a question of time till Philippines Malaysia and Vietnam are "protected" by the Quad navies as they show up on the Chinese reef and sand islands and claim them for themselves under the protective umbrella. I can see some of them perhaps becoming new bases for members of the Quad.

I don't believe the Chinese thought they could go on with this for long before their actions cause a counter attack. It was just a matter of the regional powers organizing to act. When we see joint Quad exercises with Vietnam Philippines and Malaysia we will know they are ready to evict the Chinese.

Vietnam, Malaysia and Phillipines might lack naval power, but they have sizable armies (as do Indonesia, Thailand and India of course). With their support, it may be possible to actually invade China and overthrow the CCP. That would win world peace forever.

[Wombat + 1,028]

17 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I would suggest they are being given a eviction notice. It is one thing to align a political power base it is another thing to steam in two carrier groups. 

There will be more like 8-10 allied carrier groups in the SCS when the time is right. But eviction is a nice way of saying it

[Marcin2 + 724]

Quad and other recent US military initiatives in Asia are to tell Asians „US is not leaving Asia for China out for grabs”.

It is not intended to change any status quo regarding international boundaries.

In Asia everybody wants to make rich and it is easiest to get rich while cooperating with China.

But Asian countries would be less vulnerable to their giant neighbour and would hedge their bets with both US and China.

Quad is also not directly dangerous for China. Nobody will fight any war between the 2 strongest nuclear armies.

For India it is better to keep ambiguity, not Enter alliance with US or China.

Indian Army is reliant on Russian gear, and does not have money to change for US mil hardware.

So India cannot Enter alliance against Russia and entering alliance against China means the same.

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Marcin2 + 724]

India in quad is effect of very ambitious pro American foreign minister of India.

Also Modi needs diversion because of deep economic crisis in the country.

When Covid and deep crisis hits countries like US , Italy or even much poorer Poland it manifests itself in falling sales of cars and other durable goods, and unemployment.

When Covid and deep crisis hits India it means at this very moment , it is past midnight in New Delhi , it means 300 million Indians has come to bed hungry. Well actually 400 million of them do not have beds and 600 million of them do not have bathroom with shower with running water.

[Marcin2 + 724]

It is good that US is not leaving Asia for China, but military should not be the only way to cooperate with Asia.

US leaves huge vacuum that China fills in.

China has BRI with infrastructure in construction in nearly every Asian country and is the largest economic partner of nearly all Asian countries.

Good idea would be to give tax incentives for companies that want to relocate from China to developing Asia.

It will not change much Chinese economic hegemony in Asia but would at least create some US counter weight, would show that US is still also economic player.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

19 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I would suggest they are being given a eviction notice. It is one thing to align a political power base it is another thing to steam in two carrier groups. 

The Big Stick was prowling around the area also. Apparently there have been noises about the CCP setting off an EMP and attempting to disable the carriers. Not sure if that's why the TR was kept out of the SCS but it's more than concerning if the EMP reports are close to accurate.

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/503252-chinas-surprise-years-in-the-planning-an-emp-attack

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

Not sure how many Wasp class carriers the US will have by then, but they also very potent projectors of power.

They just lost one to a big fire for the time being, I think it's down to 9 Wasp/America class.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34832/veteran-sailor-on-why-navy-ships-can-be-most-vulnerable-in-port-and-how-to-change-that

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

which India also announced last week it will be buying

Do you have a link to this? I've seen rumblings of India going after the F35 but nothing concrete.

[frankfurter + 562]

pathetic. observing the Trump cabal is like observing a group of aggravated chimpanzees. the glee expressed by people here to prepare for a nuclear war is beyond repugnant. seemingly, none of you have studied history, or you choose to ignore it. historical proof: alliances increase greatly the risk of war, not decrease. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

1 hour ago, frankfurter said:

pathetic. observing the Trump cabal is like observing a group of aggravated chimpanzees. the glee expressed by people here to prepare for a nuclear war is beyond repugnant. seemingly, none of you have studied history, or you choose to ignore it. historical proof: alliances increase greatly the risk of war, not decrease. 

Ohh quit the bomb throwing...and where did you ever come up with Nukes?

Do you really believe China's governing body would go nuclear with the US???

My god man you are insane.

[Wombat + 1,028]

12 hours ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

Do you have a link to this? I've seen rumblings of India going after the F35 but nothing concrete.

Sorry, I don't have the link but it sounded quite certain. There was talk of the F35 being the perfect "gap-filler" between India's Rafaele jets and their Migs. Will get back 2u if I can find a link.

[Marcin2 + 724]

12 hours ago, frankfurter said:

pathetic. observing the Trump cabal is like observing a group of aggravated chimpanzees. the glee expressed by people here to prepare for a nuclear war is beyond repugnant. seemingly, none of you have studied history, or you choose to ignore it. historical proof: alliances increase greatly the risk of war, not decrease. 

Do not get too excited.

Modi needs to play nationalistic card, the only one left for his government.

Military excercises and alliances are not important for nuclear powers, including US and China.

MAD is the most stable and peaceful concept humanity ever devised.

There would never be a war  between US and China.

But when you spend around 1 trillion US dollars on military ( and overspent at least 300 billion) you need justification.

Real game is in technology and economy area.

[Marcin2 + 724]

India cannot buy F 35. The place is crowded with Russian military advisors to service Russian military gear. Too easy to steal F35 by Russia. I mean not only blueprints but the whole aircraft !

Edited July 16, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

Reading some Aussy news. Funny how the "elites" are behind the curve but the general population was in favor in curtailing Aus/CCP relationship for quite some time. Sounds just like opinions in the US. For all the talk about how societies are becoming more fractured, public opinion is remarkably consistent across populations.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-can-t-bully-us-into-submission-the-pm-has-australians-backing-20200515-p54thb.html

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/rundown-of-china-s-spy-agencies-will-make-uncomfortable-reading-for-some-20200713-p55bhs.html

Edited July 16, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 7/15/2020 at 2:21 PM, Marcin2 said:

Quad and other recent US military initiatives in Asia are to tell Asians „US is not leaving Asia for China out for grabs”.

It is not intended to change any status quo regarding international boundaries.

In Asia everybody wants to make rich and it is easiest to get rich while cooperating with China.

But Asian countries would be less vulnerable to their giant neighbour and would hedge their bets with both US and China.

Quad is also not directly dangerous for China. Nobody will fight any war between the 2 strongest nuclear armies.

For India it is better to keep ambiguity, not Enter alliance with US or China.

Indian Army is reliant on Russian gear, and does not have money to change for US mil hardware.

So India cannot Enter alliance against Russia and entering alliance against China means the same.

 

The China make you rich story is over and has been declining for a decade. Those opportunities have burnt out. The arbitrage of China migrant (serf) labor off which the US corporations and Chinese coastal industry live, is coming to a close as 1/3 of it retires this decade and the replacement generation is 1/2 the size - and has less reason to leave their farms as incomes there have grown far faster than migrant incomes for a decade as farm productivity has stagnated.

You can not expect the boom driven by Chinese boomers to continue when they are preparing to retirement and then retiring this decade. Retirees have phenomenally low impact on economic activity. The Chinese market is a mirage and will  disappear into history over this decade.

[0R0 + 6,251]

18 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

19 hours ago, frankfurter said:

pathetic. observing the Trump cabal is like observing a group of aggravated chimpanzees. the glee expressed by people here to prepare for a nuclear war is beyond repugnant. seemingly, none of you have studied history, or you choose to ignore it. historical proof: alliances increase greatly the risk of war, not decrease. 

Ohh quit the bomb throwing...and where did you ever come up with Nukes?

Do you really believe China's governing body would go nuclear with the US???

My god man you are insane.

It is a common theme with the communists and their apologists in doing geopolitical analysis. China does not have the arsenal but Russia and the US do. Korea Japan Taiwan India Australia and UK+EU can go nuclear within months with arsenals bigger than China's The fissile material is just sitting there and the munitions assemblies available. Just need to put them together. China would not survive a nuclear excursion. It would be totally annihilated as a civilization. If they don't manage to do it to themselves anyway.

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 7/15/2020 at 2:21 PM, Marcin2 said:

For India it is better to keep ambiguity, not Enter alliance with US or China.

Indian Army is reliant on Russian gear, and does not have money to change for US mil hardware.

So India cannot Enter alliance against Russia and entering alliance against China means the same.

I don't think India is keeping its Russian alliance, it already broke from their military arsenal for its French Jets .

India doesn't need to pay that much and the financing is available from the rest of the Quad alliance.

India can obtain Russian standard equipment cheap. There is no end of it on the grey market. And there are still E European factories in mothballs that can go there.

There has already been a number of conversions of various militaries from Soviet Standard to NATO standard. Not that expensive, particularly with generous vendor financing.

It has been a decade since Russia broke from India and turned to China as a client and manufacturer. India has nothing to lose by dumping what is left of the Russian presence.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

7 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It is a common theme with the communists and their apologists in doing geopolitical analysis. China does not have the arsenal but Russia and the US do. Korea Japan Taiwan India Australia and UK+EU can go nuclear within months with arsenals bigger than China's The fissile material is just sitting there and the munitions assemblies available. Just need to put them together. China would not survive a nuclear excursion. It would be totally annihilated as a civilization. If they don't manage to do it to themselves anyway.

I read bits here and there about some giant underground tunneling network that is supposed to hide weapons/nukes in the CCP kingdom. Do you think any of those reports/rumors are credible?

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It has been a decade since Russia broke from India and turned to China as a client and manufacturer. India has nothing to lose by dumping what is left of the Russian presence.

Not sure if i'm reading the tea leaves wrong, but Russia's ambivalence regarding the CCP seems more out in the open these days.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/16/russia-china-belt-and-road-initiative/