A Million Tesla Semi Trucks can replace 3 million barrels of oil per day?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

3 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Calling sweat equity free means you do not value your time.

Feel free to bust your dirty knuckles wrenching on old crap, I'll pass thanks.

Thank you for reminding me why I blocked your pretentious smarmy arse.  I am sorry I ever replied. 

You just called 99% of every farmer on earth, valueless.  You know what 99% of every farmer on earth does?  Wrenches on old crap to get another year out of a tool so they can save money allowing them to fix the barns roof and maybe buy more than 2nd hand clothes for the majority of them.  To assholes in cities you are typical.  One bug and you pretentious sniveling rose smelling turds scream like 5 year old girls.  Yet demand to eat high on the hog while paying nothing and demanding ZERO tariffs from other countries while you pile on regulation after regulation increasing cost at home but not abroad.

PS: If I get banned at this point I do not care.  Sick of pretentious holier than thou city slickers trampling over rural folks all the while sneering at them.

Edited July 20, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[NickW + 2,714]

36 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Thank you for reminding me why I blocked your pretentious smarmy arse.  I am sorry I ever replied. 

You just called 99% of every farmer on earth, valueless.  You know what 99% of every farmer on earth does?  Wrenches on old crap to get another year out of a tool so they can save money allowing them to fix the barns roof and maybe buy more than 2nd hand clothes for the majority of them.  To assholes in cities you are typical.  One bug and you pretentious sniveling rose smelling turds scream like 5 year old girls.  Yet demand to eat high on the hog while paying nothing and demanding ZERO tariffs from other countries while you pile on regulation after regulation increasing cost at home but not abroad.

PS: If I get banned at this point I do not care.  Sick of pretentious holier than thou city slickers trampling over rural folks all the while sneering at them.

I bet you gave Teddy a right beating and then threw him out of the pram.

Seriously this is a forum with different views for discussion. I like to read those views even where they are at 180 degrees from mine without the need to throw in loads of insults at the other party. Why not just explain your rational without resorting to insults. You make some fair points but undermine yourself with the insults. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

This was a great read! I worked on a farm as a young teen . RE (×20) Painted the tractors every year (and truck frames, and iron rails around the porch , and  just about everything my boss would find lol). But for a dairy farm my boss had 4 tractors,  2 daily use older ones 80's (2wheel and 4 wheel drive) and 2 nice 90's big ones he rarely used. As a kid I always loved seeing the big one come out and the smoke poor out for the first 30 seconds of run time. 

My uncle and brother are truckers one long haul the other 32kph max in a steel mill for dofasco (arcelor mittal). My uncle's rig is the year before electric logs and just had cat battlefield replace the engine for 45k$ with million mile warranty.  My brothers maching has no suspension and the train tracks make him go through the roof of the cab and if there is an error and a steel roll falls off or the trailer drops off it blows the windows out of the cab . So my point is old fixable machines probably out number new and fancy. Theres a time and place for complex 5-10year life less fixable things but seems to me HD applications are usually long life. About 5 years ago I had a boss buy  a 1960's ford diesel tractor for snow removal at a auto garage. My buddy who was a mechanic but horse farmer on the side fixed it up in days (when parts arrived) and that tractor is still the snow plow there. Coolest thing was the clutch job as the engine/ bell housing / transmission IS THE FRAME .

For power (within the limits of the fuel) theres displacement,  boost (effectively increasing displacement without a bigger block therefor less friction) , and compression. 

Some special applications: truckers like my uncle in the past had tunes for ultra heavy loads. So on a hill he had 450hp turn into 900hp (pure diesel) . Or like in a massive farm they may have an un fixable john Deere combine with GPS routes and a computer for everything because the rare fix is worth less than the efficiency gain.  

And finally to the original post ... how many electric semi trucks could tesla make per year? 40k then climbing ? So to replace 1M trucks what see you in 20 years? 

Edited July 20, 2020 by Rob Kramer
Typo

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Along the lines of different power sources for machines.... trains around here (Ontario) are diesel generators with electric motors (I'm pretty sure) and I saw a bill board saying that each box is 2L/100km (pretty amazing considering a volt or Prius is around 4L/100) . But my question is why not use natgas theres unlimited fuel storage engine size and weight capacity.  Also with any ammount of fuel tanks can have refuel at any point. Or worth lng trailer drop at rural refuel location. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Thank you for reminding me why I blocked your pretentious smarmy arse.  I am sorry I ever replied. 

You just called 99% of every farmer on earth, valueless.  You know what 99% of every farmer on earth does?  Wrenches on old crap to get another year out of a tool so they can save money allowing them to fix the barns roof and maybe buy more than 2nd hand clothes for the majority of them. 

That's not what I wrote.  You have to account for the value of your time - on the books.

If you have been doing heavy duty mechanics, you should be accounting for that at like $80/hour.  You may learn that you can pay someone else to do that and make even more money doing something else with your valuable time.

You say your time is free, I disagree, the complete opposite of valueless.

 

P.S. we have a farm / ranch in the family.  Big machines with air conditioning etc.  No dirty hands other than birthing cows and picking potatoes.  I'd probably help more if it were small-time and fun to look around, but there are no horses, chickens, etc.  It's a far cry from Old McDonald's farm.  Just big machines for feed (hay and grains), and 160 cows depending on time of year.

My expertise would be better used doing field soil sampling and analysis to save $ on fertilizer. 

Edited July 20, 2020 by Enthalpic

[dgowin + 43]

On 7/18/2020 at 5:14 PM, Jan van Eck said:

In a spark-ignition engine you would have to stay within spark-ignition parameters.  In a diesel, which are typically built between 16:1 and 24.5:1, the way that is don is to have a scavenging charge injected at the top end of the power stroke which will then ignite and start the burn of the natural gas.  So it uses a thimble-ful of diesel fuel on each cycle. Just enough to fire the gas charge.  You can burn the entire gas charge at that elevated compression, the diesel can handle it, but you likely will have to adjust at what point in the power stroke the burning starts.  

To go to a pure nat-gas engine, you would have to modify the "head" of the motor by installing a spark plug, and also install either a distributor or magneto or some form of crankcase sensor and processor to time the spark.  So it becomes a different motor.  Can you use the same "short block"?  Well, that depends on whether or not you install spacers where the head gasket goes.  I have seen amateur conversions where they mill up a spacer, then install it with two head gaskets, one above and one underneath, and that lowers the compression ratio.  Then you can run a gasoline engine on kerosine!    Lots of tricks out there for the innovative.  Cheers. 

Its easier to have your fuel provider add DME to your Natural Gas. DME has a cetane rating of 110. Its the perfect fuel for the diesel engine. It will also make the EPA happy. The EPA and DOE intentially have no regulations on DME. A 30% DME to 70% NG will work fine.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

3 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

That's not what I wrote.  You have to account for the value of your time - on the books.

If you have been doing heavy duty mechanics, you should be accounting for that at like $80/hour.  You may learn that you can pay someone else to do that and make even more money doing something else with your valuable time.

You say your time is free, I disagree, the complete opposite of valueless.

 

P.S. we have a farm / ranch in the family.  Big machines with air conditioning etc.  No dirty hands other than birthing cows and picking potatoes.  I'd probably help more if it were small-time and fun to look around, but there are no horses, chickens, etc.  It's a far cry from Old McDonald's farm.  Just big machines for feed (hay and grains), and 160 cows depending on time of year.

My expertise would be better used doing field soil sampling and analysis to save $ on fertilizer. 

Yes and No. My old farm boss was a lifestyle farmer. Up early working all day & stop work only for eating.  Completely happy to farm 24/7 most of the year no matter his financial situation (from what I understand of canadian milk quota and land prices he would be well off if he sold). But ya if your on the get rich or die trying hamster wheel you have to count everything . Not everyone wants to retire on a farm house and re build a old triumph tr 6 and lend a hand to his son to run the farm. Most want a beachfront home sports ,car ,bike and boat lol if there not vacationing the various destinations(because their life was worth far more than most peoples throughout history I suppose) ofcourse.

[0R0 + 6,251]

21 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

That's great, but is not how new business will work. 

Automation and advanced recovery machines will improve profits by cutting labour and improving yields.

how does that change anything about longevity and reliability?

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, 0R0 said:

how does that change anything about longevity and reliability?

An automated machine will never forget it is in need of service.

The charging station could have an arm that greases every nipple.

Computers work about 23/7, humans work less and take more sick days...

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 7/17/2020 at 11:35 AM, Keith boyd said:

Electric semi never going to happen mate.

While I agree that Elon Musk is an arrogant bastard, his track record is excellent so far. In California, more Model 3's are sold  than any other sedan, an the Model Y is  selling like hotcakes. The SpaceX reusable Falcon 9 has redefined the space industry.

The Tesla Semi is real. It will operate on short-haul routes immediately. It cannot replace all long-haul trucks because it is range-limited. Tesla is solving this by building truck charging stations along certain routes. The trucks will be sold to companies that operate along those routes. Apparently a truck will charge at about one megawatt. Apparently, the plan is to build out the charging routes and ramp up truck production to match the demand as the route map grows. I'm skeptical. But I was skeptical of the model 3, the model Y, and reusable Falcon 9s also.

[Kandace Pierce + 4]

I love the comments about how truckers won't want to sit around and charge electric semis, as if the Tesla Semi doesn't *drive itself* and those guys will still have jobs in 30 years.   The semis might haul smaller loads, but they'll make up for that with never needing sleep or lunch breaks, and a fleet of charged semis will be sitting at the ready with an automated system that swaps the load from one to the other  or with very little human intervention.  

If you don't believe me lets talk about it.  I'll lend you a dime for a payphone.  I think there is one outside of Blockbuster.  Or maybe we can meet at the soda counter at the five and dime for a malt.  I'll print this article on the electric John Deere because I'm betting a lot of people in this thread still have rotary dial phones.  

*eye roll* 

https://www.futurefarming.com/Machinery/Articles/2020/3/John-Deere-We-believe-in-electric-tractors-100-552869E/

[Rob Kramer + 696]

11 minutes ago, Kandace Pierce said:

I love the comments about how truckers won't want to sit around and charge electric semis, as if the Tesla Semi doesn't *drive itself* and those guys will still have jobs in 30 years.  

In 30 years most of those guys will be retired. Rot and rust combined with obsolete parts will also take effect over 30 years also the age group of those farmers that run the hole show vs a driver or someone who orders the essentials and let's the bots do the work . I thought we were talking about now to 5 years out . At 30 years why not say well in 100 years everything will be different except the old houses lol.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

23 minutes ago, Kandace Pierce said:

If you don't believe me lets talk about it.  I'll lend you a dime for a payphone.  I think there is one outside of Blockbuster.  Or maybe we can meet at the soda counter at the five and dime for a malt.

In 1889, a public telephone with a coin-pay mechanism was installed at the Hartford Bank in Hartford, Connecticut, by the Southern New England Telephone Co. It was a "post-pay" machine; coins were inserted at the end of a conversation.

The first professionally managed video rental store in the U.S. was opened by George Atkinson in December 1977

With a history that dates back to 1908, Berdine's Five & Dime is America's oldest Five and Dime store. When you walk through the doors of this treasure, you will feel as though you've travelled back a century. This store is located at 106 N Court St., Harrisville, West Virginia. At its peak, there were some 2,500 Ben Franklins nationwide, but by the time Ben Franklin Stores declared bankruptcy 1996, only about 860 were left. Today, a handful still exist.

..... so your saying let's use 50-120 year old things to prove technology that's been advancing exponentially will have changed current life . I dont think anyone here disagrees lol.  

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

25 minutes ago, Kandace Pierce said:

I love the comments about how truckers won't want to sit around and charge electric semis, as if the Tesla Semi doesn't *drive itself* and those guys will still have jobs in 30 years.   The semis might haul smaller loads, but they'll make up for that with never needing sleep or lunch breaks, and a fleet of charged semis will be sitting at the ready with an automated system that swaps the load from one to the other  or with very little human intervention.  

If you don't believe me lets talk about it.  I'll lend you a dime for a payphone.  I think there is one outside of Blockbuster.  Or maybe we can meet at the soda counter at the five and dime for a malt.  I'll print this article on the electric John Deere because I'm betting a lot of people in this thread still have rotary dial phones.  
*eye roll* 

https://www.futurefarming.com/Machinery/Articles/2020/3/John-Deere-We-believe-in-electric-tractors-100-552869E/

Could have made the same point without the snarky attitude. Bottom line, trucks are dangerous enough today without having to worry about software glitches and sensor failures. Maybe in 30 years software will have advanced enough that we won't worry about "bugs" in the machine, but I'm not holding my breath. The only way self driving semis will get to roll on US highways is if they get their own lanes or their own roads. Maybe humans are the problem, but they're still humans and a runaway semi can kill a lot of us, as we saw in France when it was a terrorist at the wheel. Now imagine it's been hacked…

Meanwhile the John Deere article was very good and I'm pretty confident farms aren't going to be as concerned about autonomous vehicles rolling around. I've already seen autonomous mowers on farms, just a matter of time until they deploy the rest. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

On 7/19/2020 at 8:45 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Batteries(ones with high energy density) all lose capacity every single year whether you use the machines or not.

True, that. Most people who have implanted lithium-powered pacemakers don't use them over 2% of the time. However, the batteries have to replaced after a few years because of battery decay. 

I'm angry at the lithium-powered automobile industry because they made the cost of pacemakers higher . . . and also depleted a scarce source of cobalt. 

Battery science is very difficult. A guy named Greatbatch invented the first pacemaker and it was a very long time before we had much of an improvement on that. I'm sure there is a replacement for the lithium-cobalt-nickel-zinc battery but it's a tough nut to crack to do away with the cobalt and almost impossible to do away with the lithium. 

An interesting concept is "petrolithium." It turns out that as a well ages it draws in salt and water. If lithium happens to be in that vicinity it will be one of the salts. In occasional basins (like the rugged old basin in Utah--Bear something), there is a very, very high concentration of lithium salts in the bottom of end-of-life wells. Wouldn't be a bad business. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

 

Meanwhile the John Deere article was very good and I'm pretty confident farms aren't going to be as concerned about autonomous vehicles rolling around. I've already seen autonomous mowers on farms, just a matter of time until they deploy the rest. 

With tractors going much slower and range needing to be what 10km? And therefore charge time lower the problem of a tractor vs a long haul are very different. I think tractors could work if the battery is small and cheap enough.  And the fuel and labour saves the battery cost moreso on a big operation not on the family farms . But as you said a large field to mow like a sod patch with very square and repetitive tractor path would def be safer and cheaper electric and computerized.  

[Jerry Stout + 7]

For those posters who dough the viability of electric semi's let me inject some insight from my 30 years experience managing major private fleets.  A class eight sleeper weights about 17,000 LB, the drive train account's for 5,000 LB so we can have a 5,000 LB battery with no weight penalty.  A tractor / trailer with proper streamlining will have a co of drag similar to a Tesla Model S.  The thing that every one is ignoring is the regenerative breaking, every time the driver wakes up the neighborhood with the Jake Break or smokes the brakes and over revs the engine going down the 7% grade the electric truck is recharging it's battery at about 95% efficiency.  So while your diesel is out there in the real world of start, stop, up hill and down hill the the electric truck is in it's own little world that is essentially study state and flat.  And the first time a driver gets passed on a hill like he was standing still they will all want one.    

[0R0 + 6,251]

14 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

An automated machine will never forget it is in need of service.

The charging station could have an arm that greases every nipple.

Computers work about 23/7, humans work less and take more sick days...

 

You mean that the capital investment in replacement equipment includes additional capital required to do automated maintenance. The cost of electric motor and battery capital side vs. ICE and electric charge vs. diesel or CNG. I think it is a losing proposition in agriculture since the business end of the machines requires maintenance every season regardless of its drive, thus there is no maintenance automation that will solve the problem. It is a double or triple of capital cost with a gain on electric cost vs. Diesel/CNG so not in the same order as the maintenance savings issue in autos, where most of the maintenance is of the engine system (oil gas coolant electric generation). The maintenance of ag equipment has to be done anyway after the motor system.. .

 

[Kandace Pierce + 4]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Could have made the same point without the snarky attitude. Bottom line, trucks are dangerous enough today without having to worry about software glitches and sensor failures. Maybe in 30 years software will have advanced enough that we won't worry about "bugs" in the machine, but I'm not holding my breath. The only way self driving semis will get to roll on US highways is if they get their own lanes or their own roads. Maybe humans are the problem, but they're still humans and a runaway semi can kill a lot of us, as we saw in France when it was a terrorist at the wheel. Now imagine it's been hacked…

Meanwhile the John Deere article was very good and I'm pretty confident farms aren't going to be as concerned about autonomous vehicles rolling around. I've already seen autonomous mowers on farms, just a matter of time until they deploy the rest. 

I could have, but the snark is so much more fun.  

[Kandace Pierce + 4]

3 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

cost of pacemakers higher . . . and also depleted a scarce source of cobalt. 

"Tesla’s new batteries will rely on innovations such as low-cobalt and cobalt-free battery chemistries, and the use of chemical additives, materials and coatings that will reduce internal stress and enable batteries to store more energy for longer periods, sources said."

And they'll go a million miles, to boot.  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-secret-batteries-aim-to-rework-the-math-for-electric-cars-and-the-grid-idUSKBN22Q1WC#:~:text=The new “million mile” battery,familiar with the effort said.

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Could have made the same point without the snarky attitude.

That's rich... ever read your own posts?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

1 hour ago, Jerry Stout said:

For those posters who dough the viability of electric semi's let me inject some insight from my 30 years experience managing major private fleets.  A class eight sleeper weights about 17,000 LB, the drive train account's for 5,000 LB so we can have a 5,000 LB battery with no weight penalty. 

Can you math bro?  Drive train is still required 100%.  It does not disappear.  E motor/gear train will be at minimum 1000lbs if not 2000lbs. Great, now have 1.5 tons...   Battery energy density at pack level is ~200Wh/kg(assuming increases in future as I like round numbers currently is much lower than this).  Great, you can now add a battery(using your numbers) ~300kWh.  Trucks running 60mph(100kmh) are going to consume 100kWh on the flat if not much more when adding everything up.  Great, for free, according to your #'s, you have a 2-->3 hour battery when BRAND NEW and that range drops over time at about 2% per year.  Note, you still have to have reserve in case of temperature change(colder you lose range), hotter, you lose range, have to have reserve just for locomotion reasons getting to destination.   So, one needs to drive 12 hours a day and you have a 2--3 hour battery.  That is ok, Only need another 3--5 tons of battery instead of payload, assuming one breaks up that 12 hour day into two chunks.  Yea yea, I know, officially drivers are only allowed upwards of 10 hours averaging 8 a day... and we all know how those hours actually work out. 

Regenerative braking does nothing for long haul trucking.  Short haul?  Yes.  Long haul: No. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Regenerative braking does nothing for long haul trucking.  Short haul?  Yes.  Long haul: No. 

What? They don't have hills on long-haul truck routes?

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

4 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

That's rich... ever read your own posts?

People I respect never get snark from me. Try upping your game

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

12 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

People I respect never get snark from me. Try upping your game

How about you just write like an adult instead of a illogical bully?

Your simplistic snark doesn't phase me whatsoever, so carry on; I just got a laugh at you complaining to others about the same behaviour.

 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Enthalpic