Don't Forget About Venezuela With All the Iran Excitement ...

It's odd how the speculators respond more to the Iran nuclear deal withdrawal when it comes to oil prices, than they do to Venezuela, yet Venezuela's oil shock (more to come) is so much more fundamentally real to the market. The prospect of a reduction in Iranian oil on the market isn't even real yet, and no one even knows what it will look like (if anything). And then we have Venezuela ... and we're only two weeks away from crucial elections. 

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Possibly your basic premise is flawed. You seem to presume that speculators know anything or care at all about the reality of the business. When you accept the fact that speculators know little and care less about the fundamental realities, and make their decisions based on chatter and charts, then maybe your frustration level will decline. Accept the randomness of price that results.

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8 minutes ago, TraderTate said:

I keep telling myself that, but I just can't help it :)

You are both intelligent and honest. Great characteristics!

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I agree! Unfortunately, neither of these qualities work very well in the world of market speculation. haha. Trading gurus always say not to do things like trade 'tweets' or trade on headlines, but these days I think that's exactly what the market responds to most vehemently. It's so hard to 'accept randomness' when logic is staring you in the face, but it's certainly healthier. And while the stock market overall has had a very random few months, it seems to me that oil and gas has been the most randomly priced industry of all since 2014. 

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(edited)

40 minutes ago, cryptocurator said:

I agree! Unfortunately, neither of these qualities work very well in the world of market speculation. haha. Trading gurus always say not to do things like trade 'tweets' or trade on headlines, but these days I think that's exactly what the market responds to most vehemently. It's so hard to 'accept randomness' when logic is staring you in the face, but it's certainly healthier. And while the stock market overall has had a very random few months, it seems to me that oil and gas has been the most randomly priced industry of all since 2014. 

How about since 1975?

Oil Price History.png

Edited by William Edwards

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Well the problem today is that not only traders  - real people do this job but in increasing market share also computer programmes and mathematic algorithms. Maybe because of that it should more rational because of some algorithms but I wouldn't  expect a human intelligence or common sense from computer machine.

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3 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Well the problem today is that not only traders  - real people do this job but in increasing market share also computer programmes and mathematic algorithms. Maybe because of that it should more rational because of some algorithms but I wouldn't  expect a human intelligence or common sense from computer machine.

Please recognize the distinction between traders of futures contracts, which set the instantaneous price of futures quotes, and trading, handling and burning of real oil, which operates on an entirely different set of rules. Confusing the two separate activities is responsible for much of the misunderstanding of the oil business.

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Well I know "paper" oil and physical market. Paper oil is at least 20 times bigger than phisical market in every day of trading.

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11 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Well I know "paper" oil and physical market. Paper oil is at least 20 times bigger than phisical market in every day of trading.

I would say more like 20 billion times.

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