China's impending economic meltdown

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Those old enough to remember know what China was 40 years ago. A painfully poor country that turned its back on the world and believed it was self sufficient (it wasn't). A succession of leaders realized the one resource China had, in abundance, was its people. The economic miracle of China was selling their citizens' labor for pennies, while the ruling elites pocketed billions. Will they shut their door, go back 40 years and attempt to weather the storm to come by hiding their heads in the sand? Only time will tell. 

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

If you are talking about the USA, very world fits perfectly. China, on the other hand, now has well-off middle class that did not exist some 40 years ago.

[BLA + 1,666]

14 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Those old enough to remember know what China was 40 years ago. A painfully poor country that turned its back on the world and believed it was self sufficient (it wasn't). A succession of leaders realized the one resource China had, in abundance, was its people. The economic miracle of China was selling their citizens' labor for pennies, while the ruling elites pocketed billions. Will they shut their door, go back 40 years and attempt to weather the storm to come by hiding their heads in the sand? Only time will tell. 

Trump's next move .   .   .   .

Ban Chinese IPO's on U.S. exchanges 

No more U.S. financing China's economic growth

That's just the start .  Trump turning up the pressure.

#1 TicToc

#2 WeChat

#3 Next Ban IPOs

Xi Jinping praying for Biden win. 

China owns the Bidens.

Edited August 7, 2020 by BLA

[BLA + 1,666]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

Trump's next move .   .   .   .

Ban Chinese IPO's on U.S. exchanges 

No more U.S. financing China's economic growth

That's just the start .  Trump turning up the pressure.

#1 TicToc

#2 WeChat

#3 Next Ban IPOs

Xi Jinping praying for Biden win. 

China owns the Bidens.

Important

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

27 minutes ago, BLA said:

Important

Biden should just cut to the chase and make his son Hunter his VP nomination. 

Quote

China owns the Bidens

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

23 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

If you are talking about the USA, very world fits perfectly. China, on the other hand, now has well-off middle class that did not exist some 40 years ago.

Yes, it has a middle and upper class to which appx 300 mil people belong, What about the other 1 billion+ ? The 76% who don't make it into high school? The 2/3 of the 30% of high school grads that go on to cram school college that provides them less than an online self directed study does? That only 1 in 10 grads of STEM are actually capable of doing what their diploma attests, as per US recruiters in China?

China is a 1st world Shanghai Beijing and Guangdong/HK who have colonized their neighboring states into a Chinese empire and have lived off of this indentured population for decades. The migrant workers in these provinces can't become permanent citizens. When they are unemployed they don't even count in the host province's unemployment rate, and the don't count as unemployed in their home provinces either since they were not working there. On the other hand, China is suffering from imperial overstretch as the burden of the rest of the provinces has become too great for the 3 leading regions to support.

[specinho + 440]

On 8/7/2020 at 6:11 AM, Ward Smith said:

Those old enough to remember know what China was 40 years ago. A painfully poor country that turned its back on the world and believed it was self sufficient (it wasn't). A succession of leaders realized the one resource China had, in abundance, was its people. The economic miracle of China was selling their citizens' labor for pennies, while the ruling elites pocketed billions. Will they shut their door, go back 40 years and attempt to weather the storm to come by hiding their heads in the sand? Only time will tell. 

 

On 8/7/2020 at 2:54 PM, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

If you are talking about the USA, very world fits perfectly. China, on the other hand, now has well-off middle class that did not exist some 40 years ago.

The art of modern economy might be in the ambiguity, or no?

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

This is the favorite American topic, Paul Krugman even as a regular annual analysis about the impending "it's-a-matter-of-months", inevitable China crash. Nothing. Just like nuclear fusion, it has always been and it will always be some 20 years away. 

Lookie here - one from 2012:

https://www.ocregister.com/2012/03/17/gwynne-dyer-chinas-impending-crash/

If you want a vintage one, buy Gordon Chang's global bestseller “The Coming Collapse of China.” from 2001. Apparently, Chinese themselves understood in time there was good money to be made writing about the impending Chinese collapses, all the while China grew and strengthened its position - mainly at the expense of the USA. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

2 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

This is the favorite American topic, Paul Krugman even as a regular annual analysis about the impending "it's-a-matter-of-months", inevitable China crash. Nothing. Just like nuclear fusion, it has always been and it will always be some 20 years away. 

Lookie here - one from 2012:

https://www.ocregister.com/2012/03/17/gwynne-dyer-chinas-impending-crash/

If you want a vintage one, buy Gordon Chang's global bestseller “The Coming Collapse of China.” from 2001. Apparently, Chinese themselves understood in time there was good money to be made writing about the impending Chinese collapses, all the while China grew and strengthened its position - mainly at the expense of the USA. 

TIme to update a smidge...Fusion has gone from theoretical to implementation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/10/30/a-breakthrough-in-american-energy-dominance-us-navy-patents-compact-fusion-reactor/#18aca59c1070

Green energy the road to nowhere? Better living thru chemical engineering...the energy of the sun captured thru chemical's? (fentanyl induced?) A road to nowhere. Which does present a problem for China's investment community does it not? The green subsidy program is ending one can only hope China's investment will pencil out on its own...without US subsidy's...what a world we live in.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/01/11/china-renewable-energy-superpower/#196a0ed5745a

Opps almost left out LNG....what is up with that? A 400 yr supply just buried in the ground..how much longer can it be ignored? 

Hmm maybe a deep kungfu dive is need in this direction..pretty heady material here; https://patents.google.com/patent/US10144532B2/en

Edited August 9, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

This is the favorite American topic, Paul Krugman even as a regular annual analysis about the impending "it's-a-matter-of-months", inevitable China crash. Nothing. Just like nuclear fusion, it has always been and it will always be some 20 years away. 

Lookie here - one from 2012:

https://www.ocregister.com/2012/03/17/gwynne-dyer-chinas-impending-crash/

If you want a vintage one, buy Gordon Chang's global bestseller “The Coming Collapse of China.” from 2001. Apparently, Chinese themselves understood in time there was good money to be made writing about the impending Chinese collapses, all the while China grew and strengthened its position - mainly at the expense of the USA. 

China has grown by the mendacity of politicians who have sold America down the river for years. The first politician (although it's obvious he is no politician) to actually stand up to China and call them out for their Bullshit? Oh yeah, Trump. No wonder you hate him. Meanwhile your disasters back home multiply by heaps. You must live in mortal fear you're going to get reassigned away from your cushy assignment and have to actually live there again. 

Meanwhile I wasn't talking about China's economic collapse, but its purposeful insulation and isolation from the world, occurring right now. The CCP never has understood mercantilism and still don't, but they're bound and determined to repeat the mistakes of the past. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Ward Smith

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

This is the favorite American topic, Paul Krugman even as a regular annual analysis about the impending "it's-a-matter-of-months", inevitable China crash. Nothing. Just like nuclear fusion, it has always been and it will always be some 20 years away. 

Lookie here - one from 2012:

https://www.ocregister.com/2012/03/17/gwynne-dyer-chinas-impending-crash/

If you want a vintage one, buy Gordon Chang's global bestseller “The Coming Collapse of China.” from 2001. Apparently, Chinese themselves understood in time there was good money to be made writing about the impending Chinese collapses, all the while China grew and strengthened its position - mainly at the expense of the USA. 

Back in 2000, I was all gung ho about China's development and monetary affairs. Their system looked in terrific shape going forward after the 1994-6 financial restructuring. Demographics were great and didn't turn over till 2010. Even then, savings could finance parallel investment and consumption. Only in 2020 did things have to slow down and only in 2025 did they have to turn pear shaped because of the demographics.

But somehow, they managed to trash their economy the moment Xi took power. After an enormous credit injection during the GFC they flattened out and suddenly GDP fell back relative to credit, with credit efficiency dropping like a stone so that delta debt produced a much smaller and now insignificant change in GDP. Then their industrial numbers stopped correlating to GDP numbers and even their own economists were pointing out the discrepancies and downscaling the estimated "real" numbers. Then data about their enormous credit impulses in the bank sector and grey market shadow financing came out showing enormous debt overhang that dwarfs the rest of the world. Then their reserves started leaking out and the grand opening of the capital market was a gigantic rush of escaping capital. .They shut it down but money kept finding its way out. Exports became merely a method for escaping capital. Total factor productivity sank into negative territory in 2013 and kept getting worse, then in recent 2 years, with corrected GDP numbers, it was -5%. That was the scale of collapse in Greece and Russia.

Their banking system was supposed to make money on industrial investment to supply retirees with cash withdrawals in the 2020s and onwards. But the deranged SOE investments and provincial SIV funded projects are not producing income so that makes the fund flows of the banks look like a Ponzi scheme with savers funding the losses from failed investments. In 2025 the outgoing flows to retirees would surpass the incoming flows from savers. Thus banks would no longer be capable of funding investment and no way to produce a return of capital to savers, not to speak of interest income. The PBOC would have to intervene with major monetary injections in increasing proportion to GDP. on the order of what the US is doing now temporarily, just on a permanent and increasing basis. 

Xi and company made an impending problem into a massive disaster looming overhead. I can't have a positive outcome at this point. It is just too late.

So I suspect that China is sealing itself off as tightly as it can. It is only open to suck up more stolen technology from Tesla and other companies and others like Taiwan.

There is much more to be pillaged before China shut down contact with the outside world into a narrow tightly controlled flow..

Example

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/chinese-hackers-have-pillaged-taiwans-semiconductor-industry/

[BLA + 1,666]

24 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

 

 

24 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

So I suspect that China is sealing itself off as tightly as it can. It is only open to suck up more stolen technology from Tesla and other companies and others like Taiwan.

There is much more to be pillaged before China shut down contact with the outside world into a narrow tightly controlled flow..

Example

 

China has developed Mars space probe . 

It looks exactly like the U.S. design

China's new fighter jets look exactly like the U.S. advanced design.

Biden quote of only months ago 

"Come on man .  .  .  China's not a threat to U.S. "

Edited August 9, 2020 by BLA

[Wombat + 1,028]

2 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Back in 2000, I was all gung ho about China's development and monetary affairs. Their system looked in terrific shape going forward after the 1994-6 financial restructuring. Demographics were great and didn't turn over till 2010. Even then, savings could finance parallel investment and consumption. Only in 2020 did things have to slow down and only in 2025 did they have to turn pear shaped because of the demographics.

But somehow, they managed to trash their economy the moment Xi took power. After an enormous credit injection during the GFC they flattened out and suddenly GDP fell back relative to credit, with credit efficiency dropping like a stone so that delta debt produced a much smaller and now insignificant change in GDP. Then their industrial numbers stopped correlating to GDP numbers and even their own economists were pointing out the discrepancies and downscaling the estimated "real" numbers. Then data about their enormous credit impulses in the bank sector and grey market shadow financing came out showing enormous debt overhang that dwarfs the rest of the world. Then their reserves started leaking out and the grand opening of the capital market was a gigantic rush of escaping capital. .They shut it down but money kept finding its way out. Exports became merely a method for escaping capital. Total factor productivity sank into negative territory in 2013 and kept getting worse, then in recent 2 years, with corrected GDP numbers, it was -5%. That was the scale of collapse in Greece and Russia.

Their banking system was supposed to make money on industrial investment to supply retirees with cash withdrawals in the 2020s and onwards. But the deranged SOE investments and provincial SIV funded projects are not producing income so that makes the fund flows of the banks look like a Ponzi scheme with savers funding the losses from failed investments. In 2025 the outgoing flows to retirees would surpass the incoming flows from savers. Thus banks would no longer be capable of funding investment and no way to produce a return of capital to savers, not to speak of interest income. The PBOC would have to intervene with major monetary injections in increasing proportion to GDP. on the order of what the US is doing now temporarily, just on a permanent and increasing basis. 

Xi and company made an impending problem into a massive disaster looming overhead. I can't have a positive outcome at this point. It is just too late.

So I suspect that China is sealing itself off as tightly as it can. It is only open to suck up more stolen technology from Tesla and other companies and others like Taiwan.

There is much more to be pillaged before China shut down contact with the outside world into a narrow tightly controlled flow..

Example

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/chinese-hackers-have-pillaged-taiwans-semiconductor-industry/

Yup, there is a very good reason that Taiwan is moving half it's semiconductor manufacturing to the USA:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/tech/2020/05/15/taiwan-semiconductor-12-billion-arizona-investment-seen-big-deal/5200637002/

[Wombat + 1,028]

7 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

TIme to update a smidge...Fusion has gone from theoretical to implementation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/10/30/a-breakthrough-in-american-energy-dominance-us-navy-patents-compact-fusion-reactor/#18aca59c1070

Green energy the road to nowhere? Better living thru chemical engineering...the energy of the sun captured thru chemical's? (fentanyl induced?) A road to nowhere. Which does present a problem for China's investment community does it not? The green subsidy program is ending one can only hope China's investment will pencil out on its own...without US subsidy's...what a world we live in.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/01/11/china-renewable-energy-superpower/#196a0ed5745a

Opps almost left out LNG....what is up with that? A 400 yr supply just buried in the ground..how much longer can it be ignored? 

Hmm maybe a deep kungfu dive is need in this direction..pretty heady material here; https://patents.google.com/patent/US10144532B2/en

Yoshi got one thing right: "at the expense of the USA"! He is still in denial that "the strategic patience of the USA is over"?