Wind, Solar & Gas in California. How's that working out for you?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I leave the article with but one comment:  Power outages and brownouts in the United States of America?  Tsk, tsk California.

- -

Tonight, the California Independent System Operator or CA ISO declared a Stage 3 Electrical Emergency, marking the first time this level was reached since the state's 2001 power crisis.

Shortly before 10 p.m., officials tweeted that the alert, saying it was no longer needed. In a statement they said the began "ordering utilities to implement rotating power outages" about 6:30 p.m. and were able to stabilize the grid just before 9 p.m.

CA ISO manages the power load across the entire state of California, including Southern California Edison’s very large service territory.

The California Independent System Operator (ISO) is declaring a Stage 3 Electrical Emergency due to
high heat and increased electricity demand. The emergency initiates rotating outages throughout the
state. https://t.co/43vSSVldNq

— California ISO (@California_ISO) August 15, 2020

When the ISO is calling a stage 3 emergency, that can be serious for our region.

Why did this happen on a really hot day? Most of our power comes from solar and wind, some from gas-powered generating plants. At sundown, when solar power goes away, and if the wind is also low, and people come home and turn up their lights and air conditioning, the demand for power is highest. That puts a big strain on the electrical grid.

And when you have consecutive days of high power usage and warm nights of continued air conditioning happening, then the equipment can’t cool down and a utility runs the risk of parts of its system shutting down. That puts more demand on other parts of the system.

So rolling blackouts are a way of managing the demand (also called the load) on the system. It can keep the power grid from getting too much load and having a more serious outage.

What can we do?

• Turn off lights, and everything else that you don’t need to run.
• Hold off on running the dishwasher or washer and dryer.
• Keep your refrigerator and freezer closed.
• Unplug appliances that are not needed.
• If you need air conditioning, turn it to 80 or so to give the system a break.
• Charge up your devices now before the power goes off.

One important note: the CA ISO does not include Los Angeles LADWP or a few other cities that work directly with L.A., like Burbank. The LADWP told customers it had sufficient power to avoid rolling outages. Still, if you are in the city of L.A., it would help the system if you cut down on your power use.

That's because the longer this heat spell lasts, the harder the DWP’s aging equipment has to work. With less rest, the system is more likely to have breakdowns.

The extreme demand for power in this heat wave is creating a serious situation. Before the rolling blackouts were canceleed, SoCal Edison officials said in a statement:

Southern California Edison has been directed to reduce its electrical load. This is being accomplished by taking circuits, or “blocks” of customers, out of service on a rotational basis until CA ISO can sustain reserve levels.

The controlled rotating outages will last about one hour for each rotating outage group, but could be shorter or longer in duration, depending upon circumstances. More information on rotating outages and affected communities can be found at: www.sce.com/rotatingoutage.

"In anticipation of several days of high heat, Southern California Edison has taken the necessary steps to prepare for the heat wave and crews will be available to make repairs as quickly and safely as possible,” said Tony Edeson, SCE’s director of Grid Operations.

Check the status your power provider:

• LADWP customers
• Southern California Edison customers

MORE ON THIS HEAT WAVE

• How (And Where) To Get Relief As LA Goes Into A Brutally Hot Weekend
• How To Survive The Heat In LA: Hacks And Tips For Staying Cool Without Air Conditioning

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Edited August 15, 2020 by Dan Warnick

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Most of our power comes from solar and wind, some from gas-powered generating plants. At sundown, when solar power goes away, and if the wind is also low, and people come home and turn up their lights and air conditioning, the demand for power is highest. That puts a big strain on the electrical grid.

And when you have consecutive days of high power usage and warm nights of continued air conditioning happening, then the equipment can’t cool down and a utility runs the risk of parts of its system shutting down. That puts more demand on other parts of the system.

As to the solar power going away that is why we are building all these big batteries. Problem solved soon.

As to the equipment not having time to cool down, I hope you realize that is an issue regardless of fuel source. We could be completely fossil fuel driven and would still have the exact same problem of grid components over heating.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

The demand overload was caused by an unprecedented heat wave. Yes, the power companies should have been planning for this, as yearly high temperatures have been rising steadily over the last three decades, in lockstep with the increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The utilities have been reluctant to acknowledge this. This type of outage can be readily solved by adding massive batteries. Other areas of the country are also seeing unprecedented weather extremes (e.g., hurricanes and floods) that cause massive power outages that are much harder to fix.

Our larger problem is the over-reaction we had to wildfires caused by downed power lines. By placing the blame and the liability entirely on the power companies, we forced the companies to start shutting down power lines during high wind conditions in hot dry days. The number of hot dry days has been increasing steadily over the last two decades, in lockstep with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.  This is a much harder problem to solve than the air conditioner overload problem. No amount of centralized generation or storage can fix it. Individuals can add behind-the-meter storage, but that's about it. 

[markslawson + 1,042]

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

As to the equipment not having time to cool down, I hope you realize that is an issue regardless of fuel source. We could be completely fossil fuel driven and would still have the exact same problem of grid components over heating.

 

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Yes, the power companies should have been planning for this, as yearly high temperatures have been rising steadily over the last three decades, in lockstep with the increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The utilities have been reluctant to acknowledge this.

Guys look, sorry, but both of you are have really bad policy days. The real problem in this is that the usual cycle of equipment renewal has been stopped by the obsession over climate. Mind you, America is remarkable among advanced countries in that it use to have blackouts, as I understand it, even before renewables. But climate politics would seem to have made thing worse through an insistence on renewables and a reluctance to build equipment that might make a difference such as gas plants - note the references to aging equipment. Instead the renewables crowd want to add another patchwork, unsatisfactory solution, namely batteries. Will the lunacy ever end? 

[Prometheus1354 + 178]

You have to give it too the Eco's; it's Climate Change.  It's Always Climate Change. 20 Years ago it was Global Warming, then it was Global Cooling, now it's...  (Yeah) Umm, Winter begets Spring, which turns to Summer which then drifts into Fall then the cycle begins again...  

Certainly here in California; we are well 'known' or Notorious for our Eco policies.  Some have proven to have helped.  Others not so much.  One of those, an I mention it Because it ties directly into the CAL-ISO power warnings/rolling blackouts the last few days. Is the CRIMINAL Mismanagement of out Forests.  They are egregiously overgrown! This because while we have Millions of trees, we have No logging industry. Zippo.  In the early 90's the Eco's convinced the Bill Mill to regulate them out of business.  Our home builders Import lumber from OR, WA  & LA.  Absolutely ridiculous! The Firestorms that erupt as a result of these dead and dying forests help cause the power issues as PG&E shuts down whole sections of the grid if the winds are up on hot days.

Over Millions of years the Earth has had Periods of warming followed by ice ages. This has been proven out time an again.  But I guess it was Haliburton's fault ohh an Can't leave out Orangeman.  Surely He alone caused the last Ice Age...  (Ooooooo! that was Racist!!)  Ahem...

The Earth self regulates...  It has been doing this since it cooled from a molten mass after its formation several Billion yrs ago.  But I'll let that go...

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 hours ago, Prometheus1354 said:

You have to give it too the Eco's; it's Climate Change.  It's Always Climate Change. 20 Years ago it was Global Warming, then it was Global Cooling, now it's...  (Yeah) Umm, Winter begets Spring, which turns to Summer which then drifts into Fall then the cycle begins again...  

Certainly here in California; we are well 'known' or Notorious for our Eco policies.  Some have proven to have helped.  Others not so much.  One of those, an I mention it Because it ties directly into the CAL-ISO power warnings/rolling blackouts the last few days. Is the CRIMINAL Mismanagement of out Forests.  They are egregiously overgrown! This because while we have Millions of trees, we have No logging industry. Zippo.  In the early 90's the Eco's convinced the Bill Mill to regulate them out of business.  Our home builders Import lumber from OR, WA  & LA.  Absolutely ridiculous! The Firestorms that erupt as a result of these dead and dying forests help cause the power issues as PG&E shuts down whole sections of the grid if the winds are up on hot days.

Over Millions of years the Earth has had Periods of warming followed by ice ages. This has been proven out time an again.  But I guess it was Haliburton's fault ohh an Can't leave out Orangeman.  Surely He alone caused the last Ice Age...  (Ooooooo! that was Racist!!)  Ahem...

The Earth self regulates...  It has been doing this since it cooled from a molten mass after its formation several Billion yrs ago.  But I'll let that go...

Huh? None of these blackouts are due to forest fire risk. They have nothing todo with our forests. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

“The air quality, the communities near these plants,” will be hurt if the plants are allowed to stay open, she said.

- best closing line as closing these plants has caused emergency level air quality! Article from last year fortelling this event. 

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article235401372.html?__twitter_impression=true

Opening statement - California has been pushing for years to drive fossil fuels out of its electricity grid. Now it thinks it might have to tap the brakes — and keep a fleet of natural gas-fired plants operating past their scheduled expiration dates — to make sure the state has enough power.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Rob Kramer

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. McKinsey 

As of 2:30 PM, Pacfic time, wind is producing 437 Megawatts ... out of total demand of over 44, 400 Megawatts.

Less than 1%.

You're gonna need a bigger battery.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Coffeeguyzz

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Kramer

As of 2:40 PM, Pcific time, natgas is providing  25,000 Megawatts (and rapidly rising) into the California grid ... of the 45,000+Mw  total being used.

This is over 55% of the total and set to rise as the sun goes down (or, as happenned 4 days ago, clouds crossed the Central Valley mid day, diminishing solar contribution).

People who choose 17th Century approaches to support 21st Century infrastructure should not be surprised when ... issues ... arise.

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. McKinsey 

As of 2:30PM Pacific time, your battery system was CONSUMING 80 Megawatts of badly needed power.

Doesn't this strike anyone as just a little bit odd?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

6 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. Kramer

As of 2:40 PM, Pcific time, natgas is providing  25,000 Megawatts (and rapidly rising) into the California grid ... of the 45,000+Mw  total being used.

This is over 55% of the total and set to rise as the sun goes down (or, as happenned 4 days ago, clouds crossed the Central Valley mid day, diminishing solar contribution).

People who choose 17th Century approaches to support 21st Century infrastructure should not be surprised when ... issues ... arise.

They had solar panels in the 17th century?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. McKinsey 

As of 2:30PM Pacific time, your battery system was CONSUMING 80 Megawatts of badly needed power.

Doesn't this strike anyone as just a little bit odd?

no, working properly. The power shortage is in the late afternoon and evening.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

 

http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.aspx

 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. McKinsey

No electricity-producing solar panels back then of which I am aware, but the work of 'sun up til sundown' was induced by a dearth of nocturnal lighting.

So too, the ships at sea were highly reliant upon a 'fair wind' to get from Point A to Point B for millennia (galley-rowed by slaves excluded).

When I closely followed the protracted 'drama' in South Australia's power matters, one needed only to look at the weather forecast - specifically expected scorching temperatures combined with the routine sparse wind late afternoon - and realize that those folks were gonna be in a heap of trouble.

No, Mr. McKinsey, I am resigned to accepting the reality that folks NEED to experience the consequences of their dubious decisions, rather than expect change to come about by informed, pragmatic parsing of various potentialities.

 

Just as the hydrocarbon-loathing New Englanders have been getting 70% of their electricity from natty during this current  heat wave (90%+ including the nuke boys), the California population will need to make some hard choices in the coming years.

As for the starry eyed New Englanders during the coming winters' cold snaps?

They're just plain fucked.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Coffeeguyzz

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Seems red state Iowa's grid had problems in a storm as well: 

Iowans are hurting': 75,000 still don't have power one week after derecho; governor requests $3.9B

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/17/iowa-weather-derecho-power-governor-kim-reynolds/5600117002/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. McKinsey

No electricity-producing solar panels back then of which I am aware, but the work of 'sun up til sundown' was induced by a dearth of nocturnal lighting.

So to, the ships at sea were highly reliant upon a 'fair wind' to get from Point A to Point B for millennia (galley-rowed by slaves excluded).

When I closely followed the protracted 'drama' in South Australia's power matters, one needed only to look at the weather forecast - specifically expected scorching temperatures combined with the routine sparse wind late afternoon - and realize that those folks were gonna be in a heap of trouble.

No, Mr. McKinsey, I am resigned to accepting the reality that folks NEED to experience the consequences of their dubious decisions, rather than expect change to come about by informed, pragmatic parsing of various potentialities.

 

Just as the hydrocarbon-loathing New Englanders have been getting 70% of their electricity from natty during this current  heat wave (90%+ including the nuke boys), the California population will need to make some hard choices in the coming years.

As for the starry eyed New Englanders during the coming winters' cold snaps?

They're just plain fucked.

New England will be powered by off shore wind in the coming years. 

California's hard choices are basically what to do with fire liability. Power supply choices have been made and are moving along rapidly, more solar, batteries and HVDC transmission from Wyoming wind. 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. McKinsey

Speaking of HVDC transmission and Iowa's current plight, with over 5 and a half thousand whirleys and the nation's highest per centage of wind-sourced electricity, it may be highly informative  to get an accurate, comprehensive analysis of just what, where, and how this destructive storm impacted the state's power grid.

 

Somewhat unrelated aside ... the forecast peak demand tomorrow in California is only 65 - say again with emphasis - 65 Megawatts below today's overall capacity.

Interesting day ahead for the Cali folks, Mr. McKinsey.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

12 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. McKinsey

Speaking of HVDC transmission and Iowa's current plight, with over 5 and a half thousand whirleys and the nation's highest per centage of wind-sourced electricity, it may be highly informative  to get an accurate, comprehensive analysis of just what, where, and how this destructive storm impacted the state's power grid.

 

Somewhat unrelated aside ... the forecast peak demand tomorrow in California is only 65 - say again with emphasis - 65 Megawatts below today's overall capacity.

Interesting day ahead for the Cali folks, Mr. McKinsey.

actually it looks to be over capacity

Edited August 17, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Kramer + 696]

52 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

They had solar panels in the 17th century?

Yes they pronounced it differently tho ya know old English style: "win-dow"

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. McKinsey

Speaking of HVDC transmission and Iowa's current plight, with over 5 and a half thousand whirleys and the nation's highest per centage of wind-sourced electricity, it may be highly informative  to get an accurate, comprehensive analysis of just what, where, and how this destructive storm impacted the state's power grid.

 

The turbines are designed to handle tornado wind speeds which are higher. I can find no reports of damaged turbines. Power outages seem to be due to downed power lines.

[markslawson + 1,042]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

New England will be powered by off shore wind in the coming years. 

California's hard choices are basically what to do with fire liability. Power supply choices have been made and are moving along rapidly, more solar, batteries and HVDC transmission from Wyoming wind. 

Jay - I don't think you realise what's happening in America.. they're getting rolling blackouts in California and other states during a heat wave and with a lot of people working from home, and everyone is laying the blame squarely on the renewables projects, with good reason. Big backlash. Now is not the time to be talking about offshore wind for New England, or to defend renewables projects. 

Look at the lead item on the gas sub-forum. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by markslawson
addition/clarification

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

@markslawson

You do realize i live in the San Francisco Bay Area? The backlash won't be against renewables that I guarantee you. Expect the effort to generate and store more renewable energy to be accelerated.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

37 minutes ago, markslawson said:

Jay - I don't think you realise what's happening in America.. they're getting rolling blackouts in California and other states during a heat wave and with a lot of people working from home, and everyone is laying the blame squarely on the renewables projects, with good reason. Big backlash. Now is not the time to be talking about offshore wind for New England, or to defend renewables projects. 

Look at the lead item on the gas sub-forum. 

Actually it gets better, the big problem that led to Saturday's blackouts wasn't a failure of renewables. It was a failure of an NGCC plant right at the peak when it was needed most!!!! The power plant was 470MW and that is exactly the amount of the rolling blackouts that were initiated.

Natural gas is the unreliable component in the system.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

On 8/15/2020 at 11:32 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

As to the solar power going away that is why we are building all these big batteries. Problem solved soon.

As to the equipment not having time to cool down, I hope you realize that is an issue regardless of fuel source. We could be completely fossil fuel driven and would still have the exact same problem of grid components over heating.

Wouldn’t peak consumption during a heat wave occur at peak production for solar? That implies that it simply didn’t generate enough power to start with. Batteries don’t fix that problem. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

No, peak demand from a heatwave is in the late afternoon when solar is fading. Temps are near the high for the day and people come home and turn everything on. From Saturday, light green is renewables:

http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

Edited August 18, 2020 by Jay McKinsey