.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Have you ever been to Nigeria? You think they're all upstanding citizens there. Been giving your account information to Nigerian "princes"? 

Here's why there's oil spills somewhere in the world. The world has continually been moving about 100 million bbls of oil per day. This is a scale beyond your ken.

Remember, those modern wind turbines consume 4 tons of REE's each. That means they moved 8000 tons of earth to recover those 4 tons. You'd be screaming bloody murder if they dug up 2000 tons of oil sands to recover 1 ton of oil. 

Let me help you with your economics. The weight of the item is not what is relevant it is the value. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

8 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Let me help you with your economics. The weight of the item is not what is relevant it is the value. 

Let me help you with your misdirection. The environmental disaster caused by Chinese REE production is vastly greater than the miniscule improvement to the environment from less CO2 from your feel good virtue signaling electric cars, photo voltaics and windmills. You pretending it isn't happening because it's over there doesn't make it go away. All you've done is exported your pollutants. Let me guess, you probably cheered when the sole REE producer in the US in California was closed down by environmental regulations? 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

28 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Let me help you with your misdirection. The environmental disaster caused by Chinese REE production is vastly greater than the miniscule improvement to the environment from less CO2 from your feel good virtue signaling electric cars, photo voltaics and windmills. You pretending it isn't happening because it's over there doesn't make it go away. All you've done is exported your pollutants. Let me guess, you probably cheered when the sole REE producer in the US in California was closed down by environmental regulations? 

Let me help you with your ignorance. The oil spill pollution is far far greater than REE mining pollution. Oil spills will be eliminated by the transition to EV. Plus, the majority of that REE pollution so far is for electronic equipment that has nothing to do with renewable energy, such as the device you are reading this on.

As to your other claim, Mountain Pass mine was not shut down. It is in full production as we speak and being expanded as I understand it.  Environmental regulations did not shut it down.

Edited September 4, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Let me help you with your ignorance. The oil spill pollution is far far greater than REE mining pollution. Oil spills will be eliminated by the transition to EV. Plus, the majority of that REE pollution so far is for electronic equipment that has nothing to do with renewable energy, such as the device you are reading this on.

As to your other claim, Mountain Pass mine was not shut down. It is in full production as we speak and being expanded as I understand it. The only problem is that the Chinese bought it 5 years ago. Environmental regulations did not shut it down.

Bacteria eats oil... Oil is self cleaning genius.  Just takes some time.  It is a question of quantity.

Transition to EV will only happen because it becomes CHEAPER and more convenient, not because of your religion. 

Mountain pass mine was RE-opened under Federal Government subsidy/order for national security reasons while still NOT applying tariffs to REE products and NOT helping Canada or Australia grow their REE mines...  You and your hypocritical ilk are busy trying to stage protests at those mining companies in share holder meetings by buying a couple shares all the while demanding REE products.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

34 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Bacteria eats oil... Oil is self cleaning genius.  Just takes some time.  It is a question of quantity.

Transition to EV will only happen because it becomes CHEAPER and more convenient, not because of your religion. 

Mountain pass mine was RE-opened under Federal Government subsidy/order for national security reasons while still NOT applying tariffs to REE products and NOT helping Canada or Australia grow their REE mines...  You and your hypocritical ilk are busy trying to stage protests at those mining companies in share holder meetings by buying a couple shares all the while demanding REE products.  

Cost is my religion, so yes, EV's are happening because of my religion.

Edited September 4, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

The valuation analysts at Kelley Blue Book today reported the estimated average transaction price for a light vehicle in the United States was $37,851 in January 2020 

Currently the price of a Model 3 is $37,990.

Edited September 4, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[BLA + 1,666]

On 9/3/2020 at 7:57 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

But as you say EV's are ready for prime time. So OPEC can't hold us hostage because we can just escape to EV's. 

 

I believe transition to EVs will take time . People aren't going throw out their ICE cars for EVs all at once.

Come on let's get realistic.

I do believe sometime between 2025 to 2030 EV sales will hit an inflection point and soar.  

EV transition will not be as fast as the greenies (like you) think .   .   .   .   . and not as slow as OPEC thinks (or hopes)

A lot will be dependent on the development of next generation of batteries.  Solid State batteries with faster charging times, increased watt and lower cost.  They are coming.

Edited September 6, 2020 by BLA

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

I believe transition to EVs will take time . People aren't going throw out their ICE cars and EVs all at once.

Come on let's get realistic.

I do believe sometime between 2025 to 2030 EV sales will hit an inflection point and soar.  

EV transition will not be as fast the greenies (like you) think .   .   .   .   . and not as slow as OPEC thinks (or hopes)

I'm not so much a greenie as an aficionado of disruptive or exponential economics.

The inflection point is happening in 22-23. Battery price will reach $100/kwh and massive factories are scheduled to be coming on line. That is not a coincidence.  The battery cost curve has been pointing at Q4 '21 as reaching the $100/kwh milestone for years now. 

 All *new* cars will be plug in by 2030, there might still be some PHEV. At that point the old installed base of ICE will dwindle off over the next 20 years. Especially as gas stations begin to close and the price of what gas you can find increases because the minimal volumes have to support same fixed costs as high volume once did.

Edited September 4, 2020 by Jay McKinsey
fix $100/kwh

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

31 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Battery price will reach 100kwh

What currency is kwh again? 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ward Smith said:

What currency is kwh again? 

$100 USD per kwh

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Let me help you with your ignorance. The oil spill pollution is far far greater than REE mining pollution. Oil spills will be eliminated by the transition to EV. Plus, the majority of that REE pollution so far is for electronic equipment that has nothing to do with renewable energy, such as the device you are reading this on.

As to your other claim, Mountain Pass mine was not shut down. It is in full production as we speak and being expanded as I understand it.  Environmental regulations did not shut it down.

Read and learn

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

Read and learn

And it came back online over 10 years ago and remains in production today because they have met the requirements.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

49 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And it came back online over 10 years ago and remains in production today because they have met the requirements.

I never said it was still closed, just that you cheered when it closed the first time. But not to worry, they ship it all off to China for final processing (and pollutant export). Part of that is the reclassification of thorium under NRC rules, but no biggie to send it overseas. 🤔

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

I never said it was still closed, just that you cheered when it closed the first time. But not to worry, they ship it all off to China for final processing (and pollutant export). Part of that is the reclassification of thorium under NRC rules, but no biggie to send it overseas. 🤔

I guess you are just a great big ole pollution lover. China could operate responsibly and be competitive but my guess is that corruption eats up the difference. What again is your point? Let's see are you still waiting on me to explain battery efficiency to you? 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

  7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You really want to get in a posting match over showing pollution when you are defending the oil industry? That doesn't seem wise considering the non stop stream of oil spills going on world wide.

No.  And in that posting I am not defending the oil industry.  But when someone or some group continues to tell us how "clean" their solution is to a "problem" that is the current energy supply, and thereby endeavor to force acceptance of their ideas of change that drains the treasuries of most civilized governments and their people, I feel compelled to bring light to certain "clean" realities.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The valuation analysts at Kelley Blue Book today reported the estimated average transaction price for a light vehicle in the United States was $37,851 in January 2020 

Currently the price of a Model 3 is $37,990.

Ah, arrogance is oh so fine... The USA is the world in your religion eh? 

The ol' Good for me, but not for thee... The ol' do as I say, not as I do...

Average price of a new car around the world is what again?  Try ~$10k

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

23 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Ah, arrogance is oh so fine... The USA is the world in your religion eh? 

The ol' Good for me, but not for thee... The ol' do as I say, not as I do...

Average price of a new car around the world is what again?  Try ~$10k

Please, please, please provide an example for all your adoring readers of a new vehicle priced around $10K that is selling gangbusters. Or any evidence at all that the average price of a new car on planet Earth is $10K. You do realize that you are claiming that a very large portion of new autos that are sold on planet Earth are less than $10K?

Edited September 4, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

11 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I guess you are just a great big ole pollution lover. China could operate responsibly and be competitive but my guess is that corruption eats up the difference. What again is your point? Let's see are you still waiting on me to explain battery efficiency to you? 

Where in my responses did you get that? My point is, has been, and continues to be that your holier than thou shtick won't fly with me, and it's apparently necessary that I point out your hypocrisy multiple times to get thru. 

I forgot about the battery discussion. Had this in my history  was looking for equivalent where they were using lithium ion batteries that weren't behind a paywall and got sidetracked. Even the Li batteries have similar issues. The problem is and always will be current flow. I^2R losses are a thing, a big thing and finding a paper where the current flow is trivial doesn't support the case of using MW battery storage as utility backup. Since battery voltage is so low, the current must be high to move a lot of power in and out. 

Interestingly this isn't my job so unlike certain interlocutors I could name I don't spend that much time here. Five minutes at a time is about it. My 5 minutes is now up. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Please, please, please provide an example for all your adoring readers of a new vehicle priced around $10K that is selling gangbusters. Or any evidence at all that the average price of a new car on planet Earth is $10K. You do realize that you are claiming that a very large portion of new autos that are sold on planet Earth are less than $10K?

There are some very cheap cars sold in India.  Most can not be sold in North America or Europe as they do not meet safety standards.

Not like anyone here would buy one anyways... they are like <1000cc / 80Hp with no options. 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

15 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I guess you are just a great big ole pollution lover.

The funniest part is that Ward owns an EV, and a crappy one at that! Volt

He only rarely mentions that between talking about how rich he is and how bad batteries are.

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Rufus + 15]

On 9/3/2020 at 9:36 AM, BLA said:

The new Democratic talking point to calm the public concern about energy is "we can only stop Fracking on Federal lands" of which there is a very minor percentage.

Don't believe it.

They understate the amount of Federal leases.  

* First, the Federal land leases are substantial in New Mexico and Wyoming.  These two states have only just started to realize their huge potential. Also there are Fed leases in most other Fracking states.

* Second, if Democratic Party wins Senate you will see numerous new Federal legislation (1). Clean Air legislation, (2). Clean Water legislation, (3). New noise volume legislation (4). Many other regulatory hurdles all targeted at the Fracking industry.  THESE NEW FEDERAL REGULATIONS AND LAWS WILL MAKE IT PROHIBITIVELY EXPENSIVE TO FRACK IN ANY STATE.

* Third, They will end all current and future conventional oil drilling in Alaska Federal lands. (Huge)

* Fourth, they will most likely stop all future offshore lease auctions and may even revoke all currently held leases which have not yet commenced drilling.

TX , NM , OK , LA , ND.  CO , WY , PA , OH , WV  time to start worrying.

If you think Biden , Bernie , AOC can ot or will not do this you are wrong

*First - garbage. “Substantial isn’t a number. At least give a ratio of fed/private.

Other states have fed leases? So what? How many? How big?

*Second - What’s wrong with clean air in your lungs, clean water that doesn’t poison you or your kids? Regulations to prevent an OOPS that contaminates an aquifer for eternity? How is that a bad thing?

*Third - if drilling is going to decimate the wildlife or contaminate the tundra an permafrost areas WE DON’T NEED IT YET.
 

*Fourth - Remember that exporting oil and gas was illegal until 2015, that it’s not needed now, that offshore is expensive anyway, that the oil isn’t going anywhere and will still be there if needed. Leasing can resume later, if needed.

 

[markslawson + 1,042]

On 9/4/2020 at 7:03 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

the lack of a direct market access for the gas is the most prevalent reason for ongoing flaring." https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/08/f65/Natural Gas Flaring and Venting Report.pdf

Fracking requires so many wells to be drilled that it isn't practical to build all the infrastructure to capture associated gas at every well.

Nothing I say is going to make you listen, and I sincerely don't care. Oil is dying and there will soon be no need for fracking.

Jay - I would strongly recommend that you read the material you cite. That paper linked is quite informative about how the companies involved are doing their best to limit flaring. Its a problem of course, but one that can be overcome. Instead of insisting that it all be closed down and everyone starts walking to work, why can't we work with these guys to reduce the problem? The earlier jibe about clean air and water is similarly completely at odds with reality, as is the point about oil dying. As has been pointed out many times on this site and as you simply refuse to acknowledge, even if all the cars were replaced by EVs tomorrow that would still leave freight transport. In the US freight accounts for half of oil consumption and batteries in freight transport are simply impractical. In any case, the market share of EVs remains trivial. Sorry, no death of oil here..      

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 9/3/2020 at 8:53 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

The valuation analysts at Kelley Blue Book today reported the estimated average transaction price for a light vehicle in the United States was $37,851 in January 2020 

Currently the price of a Model 3 is $37,990.

Those light vehicles include a lot of big expensive pickup trucks, SUVs and large sedans. It will be interesting to see how electric pickups and larger electric vehicles sell. 

Our last new vehicle purchase was $14,400. 2018

Edited September 5, 2020 by ronwagn

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

There are some very cheap cars sold in India.  Most can not be sold in North America or Europe as they do not meet safety standards.

Not like anyone here would buy one anyways... they are like <1000cc / 80Hp with no options. 

 

We have a 78 h.p. Mitsubishi Mirage 3 cylinder that gets fantastic mileage and cost $14,400. It comes with a ten year warranty. We also own a minivan and a very large powerful van. 

https://www.mitsubishicars.com/mirage-g4/2020?cid=paid_search_brand_mirage_bing&&cid=paid_search_national_brand_mirage_bing&KWID=43700053649151763&gclid=3b9046fdfb691918854319af05dfc06a&gclsrc=3p.ds

Edited September 5, 2020 by ronwagn
error

[Jimc + 83]

Let’s make something very clear to you ignorant souls.,,,,

fracking does NOT contaminate fresh water!!!!

if any of you knew the basic technique of fracking and how a well is configured you would know it’s impossible!!!

fresh water is less than 1000’ feet from the surface 

most formations that are being stimulated by fracking are 5000-10,000 feet from the surface 

the fresh ground water is protected by at least 3 strings of casing and cement!!!

go read a basic primer on how an oil/gas well is drilled before you claim such ridiculous things!!

any “worm” on the floor of a drilling rig knows this you morons!!!

as you spew your green hatred of the oil business..... remember those of us who know how oil is produced and formations are made economically productive by fracking and actually know how it’s done simply laugh our asses off at you idiots!!!

keep it up.....it’s rather amusing!!