Surviving without coal is a challenge!!

[D Chandrasekharam + 3]

I remember, while I was in school my teacher asked us to write various uses of coal. As a kid, I know that only power can be generated from coal. I wrote power. Then my teacher started writing a list of uses of coal:    coal is used for steel production, coal is used in the cement industry, coal is used in alumina refineries, coal is used in the paper industry, coal is used for making activated carbon filters, coal is used for making carbon fibers, coal is used for manufacturing fertilizers, coal is used for…….coal is used for……so this list was never-ending. Now the message is bold and clear. This world cannot survive without coal!!.

The global steel market size is expected to reach US$ 1.01 trillion by 2025 registering a CAGR (Cumulative Annual Growth Rate) of 2.6 %. Steel is one of the most important resources for infrastructure development of every city, town, and village on earth. Growing demand for sustainable, low cost, and durable buildings in the residential and commercial sectors is driving this demand and this will keep growing in the future. Global steel export volumes have risen from 29% in 2014 to > 31 % in 2018. Top export countries are China, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, and Brazil and the top importers are the US, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the European Union. In the last few years, Russian exports showed a steep climb, from 27% to 31% and Ukraine from 17% to 18 %.

Next to steel is the cement industry with a current CARG of 7.8% and with current global market size of about US$ 683 billion.

There is no point in mentioning the global market size of other industries like fertilizers, the pharmacy that depends on coal.

China leads the way in cement consumption and production in the world. Interestingly China also is a major cement exporter country. Major cement importing countries are the USA (> 33%), Spain (11%), Italy (> 4 %). This trend is continuing for decades.  Since there is no substitute for cement, this will be a green industry forever and coal will tag along with these industries together with the steel industry!! The cement industry is the only industry where CO2 emissions come from two sources.......coal and limestone. Since the cement is essential for infrastructural development, no country will pledge to reduce cement production and utilization.

 

I have not included thermal power here!! the USA was not keen on signing the Kyoto Protocol, for these reasons. To reduce CO₂ emissions IPCCC recommended a 5% cut in the CO₂ emissions by all countries. Imagine ....to cut 5% reduction in emissions means the use of coal has to be cut by all industries. This will affect the financial growth of, especially, countries like India.  Don’t you think the USA was cleaver in moving away from this clause while all other countries kept discussing this issue and supporting the development of renewable energy sources for power generation especially like solar pv.

Germany produces a large chunk of lignite in the world and uses it for power generation. Nearly 22 % of electricity comes from coal here. Lignite emits more CO₂ than normal coal. Although Germany has abandoned its 200-year-old hard coal mines in the Ruhr region, it continues to generate power from coal imported from Russia, Canada, and the United States!! Its steel industry consumes nearly 40 % of coal. Replacing lignite will be a tough job for Germany. One has to wait and see its future.

Russia is a big exporter of coal and the buyers are China, India, and Vietnam. China is a major importer of coal from Russia.  Currently, China is importing 30 million tones of coal/year and planning to increase it to 55 million tones in the coming decade.  In southeast Asia, Indonesia is the largest exporter of thermal coal. Russian largest coal mines, the Elginskoye coal mine, were sold to an IT company recently planning to escalate the exports to the above figure. Coal will stay in Russia for now.

Greta Thunberg’s protested to reduce CO₂ emissions by Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, and Turkey.  Somehow China was not on her radar ...surprising.  It is more surprising how  China’s new 148 GW capacity thermal power plant has escaped Greta’s attention. All efforts by other countries to reduce emissions are nullified by China!! It is ironical.....China has pledged to reduce its CO₂ emissions by 2030 as part of the Paris agreement but started building mega coal-based power plants! The emissions by China in 2030 will be more or less equal to that of Europe. Last year China’s added 25.5 GW of coal-based power while the rest of the world reduced coal-based power by 2.8 GW. The US is clever again......left the Paris agreement. Besides, China has merged the Shandong Energy group and the Yankuang group, two coal mining company and created a mega coal company. This mega-company will contribute 7% of the total country’s coal output.

 

These mega industries cannot thrive without coal and renewable cannot support these mega industries.

The so-called crusaders of CO₂ emission reduction targeted Solar PV as the best source that can substitute coal or gas in the power sector. But what the pundits did not realize is, solar PV is not like apples that can be plucked and used. Manufacturing solar PV cell is a process, starting from mining quarts, refining, and preparing electronic-grade silicon from quartz. It is a highly energy-intensive process. Coal also forms a part of this process. During this process, the amount of CO₂ emitted is more or less similar to small coal-based power plants.

Replacing coal in the industries discussed above is not possible at least for now. No country will be able to reduce their economic developmental activity. Solar PV however discussed, supported, and encouraged cannot meet the demand and over some time this will be a declining source........Sun may be eternal but natural resources are not! Quartz and Li are the two important ingredients in solar PV based energy. Quartz may be in plenty but Li is not. By giving subsidies countries think that solar PV can compete with oil/gas and coal. But the truth is the supporting ancillary industries. If solar pv is not supported these industries will collapse throwing millions jobless, especially in Europe. This story will unfold once the subsidy is removed for solar. Everyone knew about it. Whatever said and done the giant will rule the world....that is coal.

Edited September 9, 2020 by D Chandrasekharam

[Boat + 1,315]

You probably run home to use the phone because your beeper went off. The rest of us moved on to smart phones.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

5 hours ago, Boat said:

You probably run home to use the phone because your beeper went off. The rest of us moved on to smart phones.

Exactly the sort of intellectual response I've come to expect from you

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

5 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Exactly the sort of intellectual response I've come to expect from you

Exactly the type of response we expect from you, no content just insults and out-of-date ideologies.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, D Chandrasekharam said:

I remember, while I was in school my teacher asked us to write various uses of coal. As a kid, I know that only power can be generated from coal. I wrote power. Then my teacher started writing a list of uses of coal:    coal is used for steel production, coal is used in the cement industry, coal is used in alumina refineries, coal is used in the paper industry, coal is used for making activated carbon filters, coal is used for making carbon fibers, coal is used for manufacturing fertilizers, coal is used for…….coal is used for……so this list was never-ending. Now the message is bold and clear. This world cannot survive without coal!!.

The global steel market size is expected to reach US$ 1.01 trillion by 2025 registering a CAGR (Cumulative Annual Growth Rate) of 2.6 %. Steel is one of the most important resources for infrastructure development of every city, town, and village on earth. Growing demand for sustainable, low cost, and durable buildings in the residential and commercial sectors is driving this demand and this will keep growing in the future. Global steel export volumes have risen from 29% in 2014 to > 31 % in 2018. Top export countries are China, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, and Brazil and the top importers are the US, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the European Union. In the last few years, Russian exports showed a steep climb, from 27% to 31% and Ukraine from 17% to 18 %.

Next to steel is the cement industry with a current CARG of 7.8% and with current global market size of about US$ 683 billion.

There is no point in mentioning the global market size of other industries like fertilizers, the pharmacy that depends on coal.

China leads the way in cement consumption and production in the world. Interestingly China also is a major cement exporter country. Major cement importing countries are the USA (> 33%), Spain (11%), Italy (> 4 %). This trend is continuing for decades.  Since there is no substitute for cement, this will be a green industry forever and coal will tag along with these industries together with the steel industry!! The cement industry is the only industry where CO2 emissions come from two sources.......coal and limestone. Since the cement is essential for infrastructural development, no country will pledge to reduce cement production and utilization.

 

I have not included thermal power here!! the USA was not keen on signing the Kyoto Protocol, for these reasons. To reduce CO₂ emissions IPCCC recommended a 5% cut in the CO₂ emissions by all countries. Imagine ....to cut 5% reduction in emissions means the use of coal has to be cut by all industries. This will affect the financial growth of, especially, countries like India.  Don’t you think the USA was cleaver in moving away from this clause while all other countries kept discussing this issue and supporting the development of renewable energy sources for power generation especially like solar pv.

Germany produces a large chunk of lignite in the world and uses it for power generation. Nearly 22 % of electricity comes from coal here. Lignite emits more CO₂ than normal coal. Although Germany has abandoned its 200-year-old hard coal mines in the Ruhr region, it continues to generate power from coal imported from Russia, Canada, and the United States!! Its steel industry consumes nearly 40 % of coal. Replacing lignite will be a tough job for Germany. One has to wait and see its future.

Russia is a big exporter of coal and the buyers are China, India, and Vietnam. China is a major importer of coal from Russia.  Currently, China is importing 30 million tones of coal/year and planning to increase it to 55 million tones in the coming decade.  In southeast Asia, Indonesia is the largest exporter of thermal coal. Russian largest coal mines, the Elginskoye coal mine, were sold to an IT company recently planning to escalate the exports to the above figure. Coal will stay in Russia for now.

Greta Thunberg’s protested to reduce CO₂ emissions by Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, and Turkey.  Somehow China was not on her radar ...surprising.  It is more surprising how  China’s new 148 GW capacity thermal power plant has escaped Greta’s attention. All efforts by other countries to reduce emissions are nullified by China!! It is ironical.....China has pledged to reduce its CO₂ emissions by 2030 as part of the Paris agreement but started building mega coal-based power plants! The emissions by China in 2030 will be more or less equal to that of Europe. Last year China’s added 25.5 GW of coal-based power while the rest of the world reduced coal-based power by 2.8 GW. The US is clever again......left the Paris agreement. Besides, China has merged the Shandong Energy group and the Yankuang group, two coal mining company and created a mega coal company. This mega-company will contribute 7% of the total country’s coal output.

 

These mega industries cannot thrive without coal and renewable cannot support these mega industries.

The so-called crusaders of CO₂ emission reduction targeted Solar PV as the best source that can substitute coal or gas in the power sector. But what the pundits did not realize is, solar PV is not like apples that can be plucked and used. Manufacturing solar PV cell is a process, starting from mining quarts, refining, and preparing electronic-grade silicon from quartz. It is a highly energy-intensive process. Coal also forms a part of this process. During this process, the amount of CO₂ emitted is more or less similar to small coal-based power plants.

Replacing coal in the industries discussed above is not possible at least for now. No country will be able to reduce their economic developmental activity. Solar PV however discussed, supported, and encouraged cannot meet the demand and over some time this will be a declining source........Sun may be eternal but natural resources are not! Quartz and Li are the two important ingredients in solar PV based energy. Quartz may be in plenty but Li is not. By giving subsidies countries think that solar PV can compete with oil/gas and coal. But the truth is the supporting ancillary industries. If solar pv is not supported these industries will collapse throwing millions jobless, especially in Europe. This story will unfold once the subsidy is removed for solar. Everyone knew about it. Whatever said and done the giant will rule the world....that is coal.

There is more than one type of coal.  Don't clump them together.

[pfarley@bigpond.net.au + 36]

It is true that there are some uses for coal that are very difficult to replace, so there will be coal around for a long time, however

1. Almost all coal use for power generation can easily be supplanted over the next 15-20 years as Spain and the UK are close to demonstrating already. Coal use in the UK power sector has fallen 95% in eight years, 50% in the US and 70% in Germany .

2. There are a number of green cement technologies that vastly reduce or eliminate coal. Again this may never be 100% but 60-70% reduction is doable. The worldwide forecast growth rate is 2.2% not 7.8% as you claim

3. Recycled steel does not need coal and roughly 50% of steel in the US and Europe is recycled from scrap. There are at least three paths to coal free basic steel, direct reduction using Natural gas, Hydrogen reduced steel and electrolysis (like Aluminium) so there is no guarantee that a significant amount of coal will be used in twenty years in steel making. By the way the world steel institute forecasts a growth rate of 0.7% of which an increasing share will be from scrap.

4. There is no truth to your statement that renewables can't provide all the energy we need. Germany with old technology generates 750 MWh/year per square km of land mass.from renewables. Replacing all the 10 year + old solar panels with new and replacing all their pre 2015 wind turbines with one new for two old would triple the wind and solar output, thus pushing their combined renewable output to 1,500 MWh per year/ square km. On current trends that is more electricity than they will need. That does not include hydro, waste to energy or geothermal. The US with far better wind, solar and hydro resources than Germany currently only uses 500 MWh/square km/year from all electricity sources and with today's technology can generate about 1/3rd of its total electricity demand from rooftop solar. It could easily generate 2,000 MWh /square km/y with the same density of wind turbines (one per 12 square km) and solar panels that Germany has today.

5. Lithium is not used in solar panels nor in redox, zinc or sodium batteries, quartz, otherwise known as sand is the most abundant material on earth. Material shortage is not an issue for solar or wind.

In summary renewables will displace coal for power generation in most countries of the world within the next seven years. Here is an incomplete list of major countries where renewables already produce more power than coal. The US, Germany, the UK, Canada, Brazil, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Sweden, Austria, Norway, Ireland, Denmark, Portugal. Steel and cement will follow more slowly, but they will follow

Edited September 10, 2020 by pfarley@bigpond.net.au
incomplete data

[0R0 + 6,251]

13 hours ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

In summary renewables will displace coal for power generation in most countries of the world within the next seven years. Here is an incomplete list of major countries where renewables already produce more power than coal. The US, Germany, the UK, Canada, Brazil, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Sweden, Austria, Norway, Ireland, Denmark, Portugal. Steel and cement will follow more slowly, but they will follow

That is only possible with huge continent scale wire transmission. Otherwise, most of the renewables are not economical where people live, and require much subsidization and acceptance of high cost electricity. At this point, if you want to lower your CO2.footprint you just need to avoid China made products, since they pretty much gave up on effectively going renewable. Coal plants still popping up - really big ones, and now have new nuclear capacity in the plan for the next few years. Their particulate plume causes less Pacific evaporation and thus less rainfall in N America and even Europe and the ME as their plume reaches the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

That is only possible with huge continent scale wire transmission. Otherwise, most of the renewables are not economical where people live, and require much subsidization and acceptance of high cost electricity. At this point, if you want to lower your CO2.footprint you just need to avoid China made products, since they pretty much gave up on effectively going renewable. Coal plants still popping up - really big ones, and now have new nuclear capacity in the plan for the next few years. Their particulate plume causes less Pacific evaporation and thus less rainfall in N America and even Europe and the ME as their plume reaches the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic.

That almost sounds like anthropocentric climate change (not CO2 based, but still climate change due to human pollution).

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Tucker brings up some interesting points.

 

[D Chandrasekharam + 3]

Good discussion. Lets wait and see what will happen by 2025

[ronwagn + 6,290]

All of Asia will stick with coal for the foreseeable future. Renewables will be a minor factor except for hydro which should be in a separate category anyway since it is misleading to add it to wind and solar. The West should add extra tariffs to products coming from countries that over rely on coal plants and the degree of pollution they create.