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[BLA + 1,666]

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Edited September 18, 2020 by BLA

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,132]

7 hours ago, BLA said:

BP stated the obvious . .   Oil going down over 30 years . BP projects 2050 demand at 55 mm bbls/day.  Even with that in the last 4 months EVERY major OPEC member has announced increasing their production capacity.

Why ? Are they concerned about "Stranded Oil" .   Do we see a "sell it while you can" sooner ?

No one is worried about "stranded oil" possibilities many decades in the future.  Problems today are low oil revenue and they have nothing else...

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Over the past 7 years, global investment in the conventional oil sector has probably fallen by more than half. For the previous dozen or so years, they were the largest in the history of the industry until the collapse in 2014.

The average time of introducing a conventional deposit to production is approximately 7 years.

Apart from the that, I would not treat a year as crazy as 2020 in which I have the impression that from the end of last year and the bombing of deposits in Saudi Arabia and then the murder of Suleimani, there is still a commotion on the oil market and biggest world depression since at least 1929 as something normal for coming decade.

Just as I am not against Trump in general, war with Iran is still possible.

Besides, considering that America has already become an net exporter of oil and China is its largest importer in the era of this competition, low oil prices are not something in favor of America.

The Chinese manipulate global oil prices - they bought it in the spring when oil was cheap, now they limited purchases.  

They know that high oil prices probably harm nowadays the most China and India and not necessarily looking at the shale sector the most in the US especially in competition for global domination with China.

[BLA + 1,666]

18 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

No one is worried about "stranded oil" possibilities many decades in the future.  Problems today are low oil revenue and they have nothing else...

Respectfully disagree.

BP says demand will drop to 55 mm bbls day by 2050.  Almost half. 

How 'bout 2040 ? How much demand ?

How 'bout 2030 ?

ALL major OPEC members planning to increase oil production btw 10% to 20%

 

The next Mideast war could be a price war.   With a price war everyone loses. 

OPEC was never a very Democratic organization.  Each member does have one vote . . .  BUT only the Saudi's vote counted. Now UAE , Iraq and others realize the the OPEC facade no longer works.  Survival of the fittest = real free markets = Price Wars coming .

 

But what are OPEC/Saudi options ? OPEC never cut production in reality. Maybe during this pandemic  . . . .  They had to, storage was full.  

PRICE WAR ?

Edited September 15, 2020 by BLA

[BLA + 1,666]

8 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Over the past 7 years, global investment in the conventional oil sector has probably fallen by more than half. For the previous dozen or so years, they were the largest in the history of the industry until the collapse in 2014.

The average time of introducing a conventional deposit to production is approximately 7 years.

Apart from the that, I would not treat a year as crazy as 2020 in which I have the impression that from the end of last year and the bombing of deposits in Saudi Arabia and then the murder of Suleimani, there is still a commotion on the oil market and biggest world depression since at least 1929 as something normal for coming decade.

Just as I am not against Trump in general, war with Iran is still possible.

Besides, considering that America has already become an net exporter of oil and China is its largest importer in the era of this competition, low oil prices are not something in favor of America.

The Chinese manipulate global oil prices - they bought it in the spring when oil was cheap, now they limited purchases.  

They know that high oil prices probably harm nowadays the most China and India and not necessarily looking at the shale sector the most in the US especially in competition for global domination with China.

Yea  . . . .  

So what ?

Too much oil.  

Oil was trading $50 to $52 before pandemic.  But OPEC dreams of sustained $60s , $70s and $80s are just dreams, wishful thinking.  Why did Saudis just cut prices ?  Because China bought cheaper oil from Iran , Iraq , U.S. and (Russia ?) for delivery in July, August and September. So Saudis cut October prices (plus additional discounts).

We will see $50s again.  

You call China buying low "manipulating" market ?  It is called supply and demand ?  China has more control over price than OPEC .

BP says "end of demand growth".   OPEC is committed to supply growth.  It's basic math.  

Do you think Libya , Iran and Venezuela oil will never come back.

"Come on man "

Edited September 15, 2020 by BLA

[Tomasz + 1,608]

19 minutes ago, BLA said:

Respectfully disagree.

BP says demand drop to 55 mm bbls day by 2050.  Almost half. 

How 'bout 2040 ? How much demand ?

How 'bout 2030 ?

ALL major OPEC members planning to increase oil production btw 10% to 20%

The next Mideast war could be a price war.   With a price war everyone loses. 

 

I will pay attention so culturally that there are several variants in the BP forecast. And the base variant definitely does not predict such a drop in oil demand by half, which is also reflected in the graph itself, which users comment on.

 

At a suggested $ 40 per WTI oil price, further shale oil output growth is rather questionable.

I believe it has accounted for some 80% of the increase in oil supply over the past decade. If the main engine of growth at such prices is out of breath and conventional crude oil has reduced investments by half, where will the future supply of crude oil on the market come from?

 BP has also already precisely calculated that thanks to COVID pandemy , for example, the GDP of developing countries by 2050 will be 3.5% lower than without COVID.

I read history books so I remember than 33 years passed between for example 1912  and 1945. In the meantime, we had 2 world wars, the great economic crisis, 2 totalitarian regimes, the holocaust of the Jews and other attractions.

Time for decades can be measured in peaceful times, not when the Chinese-American war is gaining momentum.

Anyway, allegedly American B-52s are practicing combat trials in Ukraine near the Russian border. Considering that at the same time aircraft carriers sail in the South China Sea, I would not call the calm times or 2020 a normal year from which to draw conclusions for the future.

Edited September 15, 2020 by Tomasz

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,132]

52 minutes ago, BLA said:

Yea  . . . .  

So what ?

Too much oil.  

Oil was trading $50 to $52 before pandemic.  But OPEC dreams of sustained $60s , $70s and $80s are just dreams, wishful thinking. 

We will see $50s again.  

You call China buying low "manipulating" market ?  It is called supply and demand ?  China has more control over price than OPEC .

BP says "end of demand growth".   OPEC is committed to supply growth.  It's basic math.  

Do you think Libya , Iran and Venezuela oil will never come back.

"Come on man "

 

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Respectfully disagree.

BP says demand will drop to 55 mm bbls day by 2050.  Almost half. 

How 'bout 2040 ? How much demand ?

There is no way possible for oil to drop 50%.  None.  Only 50% of oil is used for transportation.  India, Africa population exploding and likewise in S. America and increasing in oil use in transportation alone in those regions as they come up to rest of world before we talk all the industrial uses for oil.  25% of the oil used for transportation has no way of NOT being used for transportation(Air, Shipping, heavy equipment, rail)  Another 10% is next to impossible to electrify.  So right there alone, is 35% on top of their existing 55mm bbls/day even if we assume the rest of the world stays in place and is NOT going to want to use plastics, industrial products, etc in Africa/India/S. America.... I'll let you take bets on that coming true.   🙄  Not to mention China's use of plastics etc is only a fraction per capita that of the west so why the Hell would anyone predict 55MMBBLS.  Their standards are INCREASING, not decreasing.  Pretending we will get industrial plastics etc from solar/wind is beyond absurd in the near future.  Utopian pipe dream it technically is possible.  I won't hold my breath. 

You have to be delusional to predict only 55M barrels.  By 2050, Europe/China/USA will not be electrified for transportation.  If that is going to happen you better be the BIGGEST bull in the market regarding Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium as those companies will be worth 10,000X what they are today as that is roughly the scaler we need to increase those minerals extraction tonnages to even make a tiny DENT in what is required for that delusion.  The world better get cracking on mineral extraction exponential growth because currently, I do not see it... and without said extraction the fantasy of electrification is DOA.

PS: I have money in Argentina in full disclosure along with here in the USA.  Oil is going nowhere other than being smoked in utopian peace pipes

EDIT: There is only 1 way to hit 55MMBBL.... WW3

Edited September 15, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Over the past 7 years, global investment in the conventional oil sector has probably fallen by more than half. For the previous dozen or so years, they were the largest in the history of the industry until the collapse in 2014.

The average time of introducing a conventional deposit to production is approximately 7 years.

Apart from the that, I would not treat a year as crazy as 2020 in which I have the impression that from the end of last year and the bombing of deposits in Saudi Arabia and then the murder of Suleimani, there is still a commotion on the oil market and biggest world depression since at least 1929 as something normal for coming decade.

Just as I am not against Trump in general, war with Iran is still possible.

Besides, considering that America has already become an net exporter of oil and China is its largest importer in the era of this competition, low oil prices are not something in favor of America.

The Chinese manipulate global oil prices - they bought it in the spring when oil was cheap, now they limited purchases.  

They know that high oil prices probably harm nowadays the most China and India and not necessarily looking at the shale sector the most in the US especially in competition for global domination with China.

Most of our oil is used by American citizens so yes it benefits America more. Our prices for all our goods and our transportation are less than they would be if we were an importer like China. We sell LNG and oil to China and others so that is also a benefit. Oil may go up in price again if Asia, Africa, and South America start using more vehicles. Natural gas is also vehicle fuel so that is an option. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

 

There is no way possible for oil to drop 50%.  None.  Only 50% of oil is used for transportation.  India, Africa population exploding and likewise in S. America and increasing in oil use in transportation alone in those regions as they come up to rest of world before we talk all the industrial uses for oil.  25% of the oil used for transportation has no way of NOT being used for transportation(Air, Shipping, heavy equipment, rail)  Another 10% is next to impossible to electrify.  So right there alone, is 35% on top of their existing 55mm bbls/day even if we assume the rest of the world stays in place and is NOT going to want to use plastics, industrial products, etc in Africa/India/S. America.... I'll let you take bets on that coming true.   🙄  Not to mention China's use of plastics etc is only a fraction per capita that of the west so why the Hell would anyone predict 55MMBBLS.  Their standards are INCREASING, not decreasing.  Pretending we will get industrial plastics etc from solar/wind is beyond absurd in the near future.  Utopian pipe dream it technically is possible.  I won't hold my breath. 

You have to be delusional to predict only 55M barrels.  By 2050, Europe/China/USA will not be electrified for transportation.  If that is going to happen you better be the BIGGEST bull in the market regarding Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium as those companies will be worth 10,000X what they are today as that is roughly the scaler we need to increase those minerals extraction tonnages to even make a tiny DENT in what is required for that delusion.  The world better get cracking on mineral extraction exponential growth because currently, I do not see it... and without said extraction the fantasy of electrification is DOA.

PS: I have money in Argentina in full disclosure along with here in the USA.  Oil is going nowhere other than being smoked in utopian peace pipes

EDIT: There is only 1 way to hit 55MMBBL.... WW3

Footeab... you discover my plan???

[Wombat + 1,028]

7 hours ago, Tomasz said:

 

I will pay attention so culturally that there are several variants in the BP forecast. And the base variant definitely does not predict such a drop in oil demand by half, which is also reflected in the graph itself, which users comment on.

 

At a suggested $ 40 per WTI oil price, further shale oil output growth is rather questionable.

I believe it has accounted for some 80% of the increase in oil supply over the past decade. If the main engine of growth at such prices is out of breath and conventional crude oil has reduced investments by half, where will the future supply of crude oil on the market come from?

 BP has also already precisely calculated that thanks to COVID pandemy , for example, the GDP of developing countries by 2050 will be 3.5% lower than without COVID.

I read history books so I remember than 33 years passed between for example 1912  and 1945. In the meantime, we had 2 world wars, the great economic crisis, 2 totalitarian regimes, the holocaust of the Jews and other attractions.

Time for decades can be measured in peaceful times, not when the Chinese-American war is gaining momentum.

Anyway, allegedly American B-52s are practicing combat trials in Ukraine near the Russian border. Considering that at the same time aircraft carriers sail in the South China Sea, I would not call the calm times or 2020 a normal year from which to draw conclusions for the future.

We have B1-B's, B2's, and B-52's practising here in Australia. Also, not just US aircraft carriers, Japanese, Australian, British and Indian too. The military build-up is immense!

[Tomasz + 1,608]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2020/09/15/peak-oil-demand-again/#

 

Quote

So, we’re now seeing a new round of predictions that oil demand has or is about to peak, including from BP (at least in one of their scenarios). These cannot be dismissed out of hand as the peak oil supply arguments could, inasmuch as they were either based on bad math or represented assumptions that the industry couldn’t continue overcoming its age-old problems like depletion. (See my book The Peak Oil Scare including chapters “The Hubbert Curveball” and “Get Thee to a Statistics Class.” Some of the quotes below are from Winning the Oil Endgame, Rocky Mountain Institute 2005)

Now, the news is highlighting various predictions that the pandemic will accelerate the point at which global oil demand peaks, which is certainly much more sexy than business as usual. When groups like Greenpeace or the Sierra Club predict or advocate for peak oil demand, it doesn’t make much news: dog bites man. But, as the newspeople say, when man bites dog it is news. Thus, when oil company execs seem to believe peak oil demand is near, you get headlines like, “BP Says the Era of Oil Demand-Growth is Over,” The Guardian newspaper proclaiming that “Even the Oil Giants Can Now Foresee the End of the Oil Age,” and Reuters in July: “End game for oil? OPEC prepares for an age of dwindling demand.”

Anyone who is familiar with the oil industry knows that a peak in oil production has been predicted many times throughout the decades, never to come true (or deter future predictions of same). But few realize that the end of the industry has been repeatedly predicted as well, including both the demise of an old-fashioned business model, but also replacement of petroleum by newer, better technologies or fuels.

Until the 1970s, few saw an end to the oil business. The automobile boom created a seemingly insatiable demand for oil, one which has only slowed when prices rose and/or economic growth stalled, neither of which has ever proved permanent. Yet there have been three particular apocalyptic threads put forward for the oil industry: the industry would spiral into decline, demand would peak, and/or a new fuel or technology would displace petroleum. 

The oil industry’s business model was challenged as far back as 1977, when Mobil XOM -0.7% CEO Rawleigh Warner tried to diversify out of the oil business for fear that those who didn’t would “go the way of the buggy-whip makers.” Similarly, Mike Bowlin, ARCO’s CEO, declared in 1999 “We’ve embarked on the beginning of the last days of oil.” Enron’s Jeff Skilling (whatever happened to him?) said he “had little use for anything that smacked of a traditional energy company — calling companies like Exxon Mobil ‘dinosaurs’”

Vanishing demand has been another common motif for prognosticators, especially when high prices caused demand to slump. Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson (whatever happened to him?) thought in 2009, when gasoline prices were $4/gallon, that gasoline demand had peaked in 2007. (The figure below shows how that worked out.)

U.S. Gasoline Demand (tb/d)

 THE AUTHOR FROM EIA DATA.

Sheikh Yamani, the former Saudi Oil Minister, warned in 2000 that in thirty years there would be “no buyers” for oil, because fuel cell technology would be commercial by the  end of that decade. (From 2000, oil demand increased by 20 mb/d before the pandemic.) The fabled Economist magazine agreed with Yamani in 2003, “Finally, advances in technology are beginning to offer a way for economies, especially those of the developed world, to diversify their supplies of energy and reduce their demand for petroleum…Hydrogen fuel cells and other ways of storing and distributing energy are no longer a distant dream but a foreseeable reality.”

They might have been echoing William Ford, CEO of Ford Motor Company F +1.7%, who said in 2000, “Fuel cells could be the predominant automotive power source in 25 years.” Twenty years later, they are insignificant.

Amory Lovins, whose has probably received more awards than Tom Hanks, has long argued that extremely efficient (and expensive) cars would reduce gasoline demand substantially, including in his (and co-authors) Winning the Oil Endgame, which argued that a combination of efficiency and celluslosic ethanol could replace our imports from the Persian Gulf (then about 2.5 mb/d). (They’ve been replaced, but by shale oil, and demand was unchanged since their prediction.)

He was hardly alone, with Richard Lugar and James Woolsey in a 1999 Foreign Affairs article calling cellulosic ethanol “The New Petroleum.” Perhaps they relied on a 1996 Atlantic article by Charles Curtis and Joseph Room (“Mideast Oil Forever”) which argued that cellulosic ethanol should see its cost fall to about $1/gallon (adjusted for inflation). (In 2017, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory put the cost at $5/gallon.)

One of my persistent themes has been that too much writing is not based on rigorous analysis but superficial ideas, a few anecdotes and footnotes, supposedly supporting Herculean changes. (See Tom Nichols The Death of Expertise.) Peak oil demand is the flavor of the month and people are rushing to publish predictions, prescriptions, guidelines, and fantastical views of a fantastical future. But petroleum remains by far the fuel of choice in transportation and the pandemic seems unlikely to change that. Sexy should be left for HBO and not energy analysis.

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Tomasz