Famine, Economic Collapse of China on the Horizon?

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Uh, ORO,,, you do realize most of the USA double crops South of the Midwest right?  Florida triple or quadruple crops depending on vegetable grown.  Same reason Brazil grows so much sugarcane/soy... they can triple crop.  Sure, their yields in some cases are worse than an optimum region such as the Midwest USA, but when you can double crop, well, who cares.  Their annual yield is superior.  Takes a bit more work, but higher yield per hectare.

Yes, I am aware, but the summer crop is much larger than the others, and the upper Yangtze has 2 to 3 crops limited by precipitation patterns - less so as it approaches Shanghai..If I remember correctly. Looking at soy prices, they obviously had a hard hit on that crop. The Yangtze is subtropic, the Pearl river is near tropical. The Yellow river and its great plane and Manchuria are Northern and don't do well for rice..

They practice gardening rather than agriculture so produce much more per acre but at an abysmal labor and chemical productivity. And output has not grown since 2016 and just barely since 2014. Yet farm incomes are growing at a pace far ahead of migrant labor income for the decade, the gap should close soon, but they claim there is no food inflation diverting people's incomes to the point of their having to cut consumption of industrial products.

In the meantime, they did import lots of dairy, and meats and now soy and corn.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 9/21/2020 at 6:58 PM, Tomasz said:

Well, the facts are that China will have around 2% GDP growth this year and the US around 4% decline this year.

Do you really believe China has positive GDP growth? I made a prediction back in January, with a couple friends who pay attention to this stuff, that the CCP would report positive GDP in spite of the virus. Both my friends (who do business in China and know whats going on) laughed and said no way they would doctor their numbers that much. What a surprise, as usual it's always sunny in Beijing. That 2% positive GDP number is as trustworthy as the Covid19 reported deaths statistic that miraculously flattened at 80K. No way CCP is anything near 8% growth next year, they weren't at anything close to that before the virus.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 9/21/2020 at 10:27 PM, 0R0 said:

But the recent projects are creating duplication and economic dislocation as business drains from existing working airports and train lines to split among duplicated new project functions so that neither the new nor the older projects produce enough cash flow to cover their costs, which is why the Total Factor Productivity in China is significantly negative even with official numbers, and severely in the red when calculated with more credible numbers.

All those new coal power plants coming online but not used to capacity are shining examples of this waste.

[0R0 + 6,251]

23 hours ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

Do you really believe China has positive GDP growth? I made a prediction back in January, with a couple friends who pay attention to this stuff, that the CCP would report positive GDP in spite of the virus. Both my friends (who do business in China and know whats going on) laughed and said no way they would doctor their numbers that much. What a surprise, as usual it's always sunny in Beijing. That 2% positive GDP number is as trustworthy as the Covid19 reported deaths statistic that miraculously flattened at 80K. No way CCP is anything near 8% growth next year, they weren't at anything close to that before the virus.

Yep, like they shut down Yunnan on a 1 person a day infection breakout. They are such sticklers for factual reporting....

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Yep, like they shut down Yunnan on a 1 person a day infection breakout. They are such sticklers for factual reporting....

Factual reporting, doubtful. 

Effective strict quarantines using authoritarian measures, possible.

Better handling covid than the US, likely.

Edited September 25, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well China has a lot of internal problems.

But lets see macro picture according to trading economics and World Bank

USA gdp nominal 2019 21439

China 14140

So in 2019 China gdp was about 0,659 of US total gdp

Estimations at the end of 2021 thanks to COVID and trade war

US 21000

China 15200

So China is forecasted to be about 0,723 of US total nominal gdp at the end of 2021

 

In general, to some extent, your economic Wall Street policy in last 40 years has brought up a rival called China  now far more powerful than the USSR ever was.

The largest US corporations and China earned the most, and the ordinary American worker and US lost the most, and here, in my opinion, Trump is absolutely right.

And thanks to the policy of maximum pressure on contemporary Russia after 1991, you de facto pushed it into an alliance with China, because finally after supporting the Maidan, the Russians decided that its really better to even be a vassal of China than a second Yugoslavia sometimes in the future.

So now you are facing a rival far more powerful than in the second half of the 20th century. And I would say US is far weaker than 30 years ago in Reagan era and Trump is probably really only good option to fight with China,.

In particular, if Biden wins and begins to impose  sanctions on Russia, which would further increase the dependence of the country with military technologies and the largest resource base on China. So biggest winner of such policy will be China.

At one time, Mearsheimer, one of the best American strategists, said that contemporary America pursues a policy whose equivalent would be if Roosevelt in 1941 declared war on both the Third Reich and the USSR in defense of human values because both these countries were totalitarian regimes.

In history, it has happened many times that a naval power entered into an alliance with a weaker land power against the strongest challenging  land power in Euroasia. So here you have 2 candidates for potential allies - either Russia or India because the European Union is in internal crisis in which each of the 27 countries has different interests towards China and Germany and France is not very eager to the Cold War with China .

Good luck but now to be honest  I personally  bet on China in this game for global domination.

 

Edited October 4, 2020 by Tomasz