Ward Smith

Kalifornistan, CO2, clueless politicians, climate hustle

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20 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Propane will never compete with diesel, as of to date I know of no propane designed engines. 

To that point there design would extremely basic and cost effective. And if done dino engines would become passe 

Apparently you have never payed any attention to the lowly forklift or tow motor as it is known. They have had propane engines on them for years, and are the industry standard still. Them and electric ones

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26 minutes ago, El Gato said:

Apparently you have never payed any attention to the lowly forklift or tow motor as it is known. They have had propane engines on them for years, and are the industry standard still. Them and electric ones

 

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1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

 

Well now i never gave a thought to a forklift engine, i would suspect a 60's circa engine converted to propane as all engines i know of. Interesting i will do some snooping. To my point... propane burn cycle/ignition timing along with cam timing..and of course bore is very much different than petro fuel...A entirely different animal as emissions...

https://www.toyotaforklift.com/blog/the-history-of-toyotas-4y-engine

As i thought a gas engine retrofitted to run on propane.

Not quite sure how i accomplished that posting...lmao

 

Here is abit to what i am speaking to..creating useable torque in a engine evolves around compression ratio and timing curves. Propane can sustain much higher compression ratios than gasoline and diesel can sustain much higher compression ratios than propane.

Its all about timing.

https://www.drivingline.com/articles/ecoboosted-why-ford-s-small-cube-forced-induction-mills-are-so-popular/

Quote

 

 

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Correct. While I have you online, how great a threat is the benzene in diesel and in copiers etc.? I had a daughter die of a the worst form of leukemia. She did a lot of copying work. I understand benzene is involved in copiers. Do you have any knowledge of that?

I found this. https://www.who.int/ipcs/features/benzene.pdf

I think that she had acute myeloid leukemia. It has been twenty years. We are still watching over her daughter. 

Sorry to hear that Ron. Parents should never outlive their children

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20 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

How often do category 5 hurricanes make it all the way to New England? I remember Sandy, but IIRC it was a 2 and maybe a 1 after landfall? I can't even imagine if Sandy had been a 5.

The last one was in 1938.  But that is not the issue.  Those big storms make New England landfall about once every 75 years, that has been the pattern.  So NE is now overdue for a serious hit.  There are several problems associated with the next landfall.  First, the tree growth is now over-saturated, lots and lots of very tall mature trees of several species, and lots of them right on the coast. It is anticipated that 100% of that tree cover will be felled.   Second, there is no feasible way of "cleaning up" such a large tree drop.   Third, several States will be totally paralyzed as the manpower and machinery is not there to clear the roads from fallen trees, and those "big ones" that fall will typically have a trunk diameter of several feet.  Fourth, until the trees are removed nobody can go to work on the power lines, and most of the lines will require re-setting new power poles, and there is not even remotely enough poles in stock to meet that requirement.  Fifth, to cut the trees on the road up, fist you have to ensure that the power lines themselves are shut off, and nobody can get to the disconnect points as the roads are all clogged with fallen timber. 

Sixth, these big storms typically happen at the end of the hurricane season, so it will be cold and darkness comes early.  The population will be stranded.   Seventh, huge numbers of people will need to be evacuated from homes due to lack of power, heat, and food, and so priority hs to go to removing displaced people, but there is no place for them to go and no transport to move them. Eighth, there is no provision for pets and you can anticipate that folks are going to flatly refuse to be evacuated without their pets.  So you are in chaos.  Ninth, you can anticipate large numbers of washouts of bridges and roads and there is no provision for expedient repairs, so several communities will be cut off.  Tenth, some 97% of New England fire departments are all-volunteer, and aside from the manpower not being available as the men will be attending to their own old folks and families, they will be utterly unable to cope with the large-scale fires that will result from such a storm. Eleventh, the insurers will be unable to cope and there will be no cash advances on claims, as there will be no plausible way to process claims.  Twelfth, essential services such as hospitals will fail because the personnel will be unable to rotate. 

The next big Cat-5 storm will thus result in mass collapse of effective government action.  With govts paralyzed, the people will be on their onw.  With no fuel, limited to no food, no heat, no reads to the outside, no ability to evacuate, you will have societal chaos.  It will take easily a year to recover to a functioning society.  Can society hold out that long?  I rather doubt it. 

If New York City gets hit with a Cat-5 then you may anticipate that all the road and subway tunnels under the East and Hudson Rivers will flood out, and the City will need to be evacuated.  Where do you put seven million people?  New Jersey?  I don't think so. 

The Federal FEMA is a historical backwater, a dumping round for incompetent managers who are political hangers-on.  FEMA will fail.  Can the military do the job?  Possibly, but remember the military is stretched thin, with deployments outside the USA.  The ability of FEMA and the military to respond to the whacking of Puerto Rico is not inspiring of confidence.  And Puerto Rico does not have a heating problem for the residents. Not one in one hundred people will be able to tough it out through a Cat-5.  All the rest, basically everybody, will have to be evacuated. And without any fuel for the transport, either.  That should be interesting.

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16 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I am wondering what the cost of burying lines is like versus liabilities for power lines, tree trimming, repairing lines replacing poles etc. Maybe someone here knows.

In some areas of New England a new development must have all the lines buried; there are no poles for anything, including internet and telephone. The costing of burial is always a function of whose ox gets gored;  the utility company, or the homeowner or town.  Overall, direct burial is the way to go, assuming you don't want massive service interruptions. 

The last big storm in Connecticut knocked out over 700,000 people for up to 10 days.  Now the utility is being sued for billions for its negligence.  Either way, somebody pays. 

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On 9/26/2020 at 10:02 PM, ronwagn said:

...I think President Trump is the greatest national leader of my lifetime...

For anyone to have this opinion of trump is simply mind-boggling. The guy is a total fraud and it's plain as day. He has no clue what he is doing. And never has. There is not one thing genuine about him. You, obviously, do not and cannot see it. If I knew you, it would be tough for me to trust your judgment on anything. I do like your natural gas love, lol, because I have extensive nat gas holdings but who knows what will happen there. I certainly hope it improves. I am sure you don't care what I think, I wouldn't expect you to, but without a doubt, the trump love is the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my life. You're in the cult and can't escape. Best of luck to you.

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4 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

In some areas of New England a new development must have all the lines buried; there are no poles for anything, including internet and telephone. The costing of burial is always a function of whose ox gets gored;  the utility company, or the homeowner or town.  Overall, direct burial is the way to go, assuming you don't want massive service interruptions. 

The last big storm in Connecticut knocked out over 700,000 people for up to 10 days.  Now the utility is being sued for billions for its negligence.  Either way, somebody pays. 

I'm not a power EE, but have friends who are. There's an interesting factoid about buried plant (what the utility folks call it). The capacitance builds up in that neat little cylinder the power is run in, and you get all these little micro spikes blowing holes in the insulation, continuously. Oddly, buried plant has only 1/3 the life expectancy of overhead, and that's counting storms and tree falls.  I'm all for it, my entire subdivision has buried plant, not a power pole for a mile. Amusingly, the last time we lost power (for several days) the high voltage lines almost exactly 1.5 miles from my house snapped. My buried plant didn't do much good when the feeder system isn't. 

As for your treatise about New England above. Sheesh! I'm thinking the super volcano caldera I'm next to is going to get a run for it's money in the next disaster film called reality. Then there's the Cascadia Fault, and let's not forget the epic disaster of the San Andreas finally going boom. I'm curious how everyone will feel about their useless paperweights called EV'S when there's no way to charge them. Hopefully I'm in the great beyond by then, and my grandkids too. 

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25 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

For anyone to have this opinion of trump is simply mind-boggling. The guy is a total fraud and it's plain as day. He has no clue what he is doing. And never has. There is not one thing genuine about him. You, obviously, do not and cannot see it. If I knew you, it would be tough for me to trust your judgment on anything. I do like your natural gas love, lol, because I have extensive nat gas holdings but who knows what will happen there. I certainly hope it improves. I am sure you don't care what I think, I wouldn't expect you to, but without a doubt, the trump love is the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my life. You're in the cult and can't escape. Best of luck to you.

Your MSM programmers thank you for your slavish devotion. 

NPC-13-groupthink.jpg

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(edited)

38 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

For anyone to have this opinion of trump is simply mind-boggling.

Well, Bill, the nice thing about an open society is that every man can have his opinion.  I don't begrudge Ron his.  I think you will agree that what makes Mr. Trump so compelling is that he is quite prepared to go toe-to-toe with the establishment politicians.  A large problem with the USA is what I would call the "limousine liberals," the class of politicians that view themselves as perpetually entitled to political office.  A good number of those folks are utterly revolting. Call Mr. Trump whatever you want - fraud, boor, incompetent, a klutz, not genuine - he is still the ONLY elected person who is prepared to chuck all the others plus the "Deep State" of perpetual bureaucrats and embedded govt persons including FBI officials and State Dept lackeys.  You do not see that with, for example, Mr. Biden or any of the membership of the Democratic Party, which in turn has this idea that they are entitled persons to be genuflected to in perpetuity, simply because they are so grand. 

I ran into this mentality on the streets of D.C. while on business down there, where a continuing series of "motorcades" would proceed through the traffic.  You would get this convoy of police vehicles, then some bureaucrat or politician limo, then more tail police, all with sirens blaring so that some self-important jerk could get across Town to some meeting ten minutes faster.  That this burdens the rest of the society is not even in the thinking of these, who are so disdainful of ordinary people.  It is a rude, inconsiderate, obnoxious mentality, embrace by the entire political class in Washington, and one that Trump finds so disgraceful.  To his credit, Mr. Trump does not do that. 

I personally do not think Mr. Trump is the greatest.  He seems to have alienated much of Europe, which in my view is a bad thing to do. But that issue, of Mr. Trump on the scale of world politicians, is not the issue.  The real issue is, who is worse?  Trump or Biden/Harris?   Will Mr. Biden do better  (assuming he is able to maintain office for any appreciable time, which is dubious)?  Probably not.  

In America, the good candidates get pushed aside. The marginal candidates end up  selected.  This is a complex process and I will not attempt to dissect it, other than to say that, generally speaking, marginal candidates seem to be selected by the process. So there are two issues facing the voters.  Issue #1: have you had enough?  (Enough of the crap of the ruling party).  Issue #2:  Who is goin to be least-worst? 

In the case of the up-coming election, I don't see how Mr. Trump can prevail, so the issue is likely moot.  I anticipate that the electoral College votes will come in with Mr. Trump at about 202 votes.  He needs 270.  I don't see how he can get there.  He may well get better than 48% of the popular vote, even over 50%, but that is not the criterion: he has to prevail at the Electoral College.  The very College that carried him the last time around is likely to seal the election against him this time around. It is in theory possible to imagine a tie, 269-269, in which case the election gets thrown into the House of Representatives. That would be extraordinary.

Again I mention that, as a Monarchist, I am indifferent as to how it turns out. I have no axe to grind either way. Will America ever get back to electing really good candidates?  Probably not. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Well, Bill, the nice thing about an open society is that every man can have his opinion.  I don't begrudge Ron his.  I think you will agree that what makes Mr. Trump so compelling is that he is quite prepared to go toe-to-toe with the establishment politicians.  A large problem with the USA is what I would call the "limousine liberals," the class of politicians that view themselves as perpetually entitled to political office.  A good number of those folks are utterly revolting. Call Mr. Trump whatever you want - fraud, boor, incompetent, a klutz, not genuine - he is still the ONLY elected person who is prepared to chuck all the others plus the "Deep State" of perpetual bureaucrats and embedded govt persons including FBI officials and State Dept lackeys.  You do not see that with, for example, Mr. Biden or any of the membership of the Democratic Party, which in turn has this idea that they are entitled persons to be genuflected to in perpetuity, simply because they are so grand. 

I ran into this mentality on the streets of D.C. while on business down there, where a continuing series of "motorcades" would proceed through the traffic.  You would get this convoy of police vehicles, then some bureaucrat or politician limo, then more tail police, all with sirens blaring so that some self-important jerk could get across Town to some meeting ten minutes faster.  That this burdens the rest of the society is not even in the thinking of these, who are so disdainful of ordinary people.  It is a rude, inconsiderate, obnoxious mentality, embrace by the entire political class in Washington, and one that Trump finds so disgraceful.  To his credit, Mr. Trump does not do that. 

I personally do not think Mr. Trump is the greatest.  He seems to have alienated much of Europe, which in my view is a bad thing to do. But that issue, of Mr. Trump on the scale of world politicians, is not the issue.  The real issue is, who is worse?  Trump or Biden/Harris?   Will Mr. Biden do better  (assuming he is able to maintain office for any appreciable time, which is dubious)?  Probably not.  

In America, the good candidates get pushed aside. The marginal candidates end up  selected.  This is a complex process and I will not attempt to dissect it, other than to say that, generally speaking, marginal candidates seem to be selected by the process. So there are two issues facing the voters.  Issue #1: have you had enough?  (Enough of the crap of the ruling party).  Issue #2:  Who is goin to be least-worst? 

In the case of the up-coming election, I don't see how Mr. Trump can prevail, so the issue is likely moot.  I anticipate that the electoral College votes will come in with Mr. Trump at about 202 votes.  He needs 270.  I don't see how he can get there.  He may well get better than 48% of the popular vote, even over 50%, but that is not the criterion: he has to prevail at the Electoral College.  The very College that carried him the last time around is likely to seal the election against him this time around. It is in theory possible to imagine a tie, 269-269, in which case the election gets thrown into the House of Representatives. That would be extraordinary.

Again I mention that, as a Monarchist, I am indifferent as to how it turns out. I have no axe to grind either way. Will America ever get back to electing really good candidates?  Probably not. 

The oddest thing to me is how anyone thinks trump cares about the little guy. He cares for nobody but himself. He doesn't care about anyone who will not kiss his a$$. And if you do today and don't tomorrow, you're toast. I've never been 'political' until the past few years. Not many politicians I care for. And nobody comes even close to the level of fraud that trump is. I think he's going down, as he should, and in a big way. Major drama is ahead.

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4 hours ago, BillKidd said:

For anyone to have this opinion of trump is simply mind-boggling. The guy is a total fraud and it's plain as day. He has no clue what he is doing. And never has. There is not one thing genuine about him. You, obviously, do not and cannot see it. If I knew you, it would be tough for me to trust your judgment on anything. I do like your natural gas love, lol, because I have extensive nat gas holdings but who knows what will happen there. I certainly hope it improves. I am sure you don't care what I think, I wouldn't expect you to, but without a doubt, the trump love is the most amazing thing I have ever seen in my life. You're in the cult and can't escape. Best of luck to you.

Of course the wise people agree with me not you Bill.  😊

Please see Vetting Joe Biden and Kamala Harris https://docs.google.com/document/d/19dWQ1ucBsPQyj0WuVMfXmr6DTTeG8TwKbVuWE9_Rswg/edit

Edited by ronwagn
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3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Well, Bill, the nice thing about an open society is that every man can have his opinion.  I don't begrudge Ron his.  I think you will agree that what makes Mr. Trump so compelling is that he is quite prepared to go toe-to-toe with the establishment politicians.  A large problem with the USA is what I would call the "limousine liberals," the class of politicians that view themselves as perpetually entitled to political office.  A good number of those folks are utterly revolting. Call Mr. Trump whatever you want - fraud, boor, incompetent, a klutz, not genuine - he is still the ONLY elected person who is prepared to chuck all the others plus the "Deep State" of perpetual bureaucrats and embedded govt persons including FBI officials and State Dept lackeys.  You do not see that with, for example, Mr. Biden or any of the membership of the Democratic Party, which in turn has this idea that they are entitled persons to be genuflected to in perpetuity, simply because they are so grand. 

I ran into this mentality on the streets of D.C. while on business down there, where a continuing series of "motorcades" would proceed through the traffic.  You would get this convoy of police vehicles, then some bureaucrat or politician limo, then more tail police, all with sirens blaring so that some self-important jerk could get across Town to some meeting ten minutes faster.  That this burdens the rest of the society is not even in the thinking of these, who are so disdainful of ordinary people.  It is a rude, inconsiderate, obnoxious mentality, embrace by the entire political class in Washington, and one that Trump finds so disgraceful.  To his credit, Mr. Trump does not do that. 

I personally do not think Mr. Trump is the greatest.  He seems to have alienated much of Europe, which in my view is a bad thing to do. But that issue, of Mr. Trump on the scale of world politicians, is not the issue.  The real issue is, who is worse?  Trump or Biden/Harris?   Will Mr. Biden do better  (assuming he is able to maintain office for any appreciable time, which is dubious)?  Probably not.  

In America, the good candidates get pushed aside. The marginal candidates end up  selected.  This is a complex process and I will not attempt to dissect it, other than to say that, generally speaking, marginal candidates seem to be selected by the process. So there are two issues facing the voters.  Issue #1: have you had enough?  (Enough of the crap of the ruling party).  Issue #2:  Who is goin to be least-worst? 

In the case of the up-coming election, I don't see how Mr. Trump can prevail, so the issue is likely moot.  I anticipate that the electoral College votes will come in with Mr. Trump at about 202 votes.  He needs 270.  I don't see how he can get there.  He may well get better than 48% of the popular vote, even over 50%, but that is not the criterion: he has to prevail at the Electoral College.  The very College that carried him the last time around is likely to seal the election against him this time around. It is in theory possible to imagine a tie, 269-269, in which case the election gets thrown into the House of Representatives. That would be extraordinary.

Again I mention that, as a Monarchist, I am indifferent as to how it turns out. I have no axe to grind either way. Will America ever get back to electing really good candidates?  Probably not. 

We Trumpists feel we can get the win. Thanks for explaining your views again. 

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2 hours ago, BillKidd said:

The oddest thing to me is how anyone thinks trump cares about the little guy. He cares for nobody but himself. He doesn't care about anyone who will not kiss his a$$. And if you do today and don't tomorrow, you're toast. I've never been 'political' until the past few years. Not many politicians I care for. And nobody comes even close to the level of fraud that trump is. I think he's going down, as he should, and in a big way. Major drama is ahead.

What do you think caused the record low unemployment level of Blacks and Hispanics? Luck? They would rather work than be on the Democrat Plantation forever. 

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2 hours ago, BillKidd said:

The oddest thing to me is how anyone thinks trump cares about the little guy. He cares for nobody but himself. He doesn't care about anyone who will not kiss his a$$. And if you do today and don't tomorrow, you're toast. I've never been 'political' until the past few years. Not many politicians I care for. And nobody comes even close to the level of fraud that trump is. I think he's going down, as he should, and in a big way. Major drama is ahead.

Bill, I am not sure I would go as far as you would go.  Let us just do a very brief, attenuated look at some of what Mr. Trump has accomplished. 

First up, he had the audacity to go meet personally with Kim Jong Un, who is, let's face it, a complete lunatic. Kim was busy developing nuke bombs and the rockets to launch them; Trump offered to meet personally in Singapore to discuss differences.  Later, Trump was the first and only President, ever, to go to Panmunjom and step over onto North Korean soil. He defused a credible threat of regional nuke war.  Now, can you see Hillary Clinton doing that?  No chance. 

Second, he has called out China for its mercantilist, and exploitative, manufacturing and trade policies. Let us remember that it was Bill Clinton that set in motion policies that caused the shut-down of some 50,000 American factories, the wealth shipped over to China.  The idea behind that was that of Milton Friedman and the Chicago School of economic lunacy, the idea of "free markets."  There is no such thing as free markets and "comparative advantage," all you have is "absolute advantage" and manipulated markets.  Mr. Trump called the political class and the "chattering class" on it and he was audacious to do so.  And, he was right. 

Mr. Trump has brought American heavy industry back to life.  The vast dumping of steel and aluminum, real basic industries, has been chopped by Mr. Trump by his Executive Order when the Congress failed so miserably to do it. Trump had the balls to chop the trade abusers down to size, and I cannot imagine any Democrat politician doing that. 

Now, has Trump failed in putting together a solid executive team?  Yes, he has failed.  Does he fail in refusing to even read technical reports and digests on the issues before the Nation?  yes, he has failed.  Has he shown leadership in the face of internal strife?  No, he has failed.  So, the man is a mixed bag.  But that does not mean that he has no accomplishments.  And some of those accomplishments are stellar. 

I remind you that Obama/Biden did nothing when the Russians invaded Crimea and the Donbas, egregious land-grabbing by force of arms.  Trump responds to the Russian abuse by shutting down the NordStream II pipeline with the threat of serious sanctions. Mr. Trump has no credibility problems when it comes to laying down the law to these international gangsters. So I give him credit for that. 

I could go on, but you get the picture.  Mr. Trump does not play by the limousine-liberal rules, and that has brought fear and loathing from establishment Washington.  And that is a big part of his appeal: the country is hungry for someone to kick some ass.   He does that. 

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8 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

 

First up, he had the audacity to go meet personally with Kim Jong Un, who is, let's face it, a complete lunatic.

[]

Second, he has called out China for its mercantilist, and exploitative, manufacturing and trade policies. 

Mr. Trump has brought American heavy industry back to life.

Trump, Kim, and Rodman. Three lunatics.

Called out China sure.  Accomplished anything, no.

Same with US industry, lots of words, no real results. Steel and Al is flowing just fine... trump caved to Canada quickly.

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Interesting information and advice about schools, masks and Covid-19 from our new friend Peggy Hall.

 

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On 9/28/2020 at 1:01 AM, ronwagn said:

Thanks for the explanation. I hope you saw the video, it says the Grapevine was no problem for a heavily loaded natural gas truck. If diesel stays cheap there is no real reason to spend money to switch to natural gas unless government demands it. I do not favor that if the diesel burns clean. Benzene is a carcinogen though and is , to my understanding, a diesel emission. 

IS true that Benzene, and other aromatics cause cancer, and are a big issue, In Distilled Diesel from Oil refineries*, You don't actually need to distill it from oil, but with either the Fischer Tropsch or the STG+, Neste does produce synthetic diesel with any feedstock that is Carbon and Hydrogen, either be animal fat, oil, vegetable oil, natural gas, or whatever you wan't

Synthetic fuel contains, no sulfur, no aromatics, only paraffins and oleffins compounds, has higher cetane numbers between 75 and 85, doesn't smell, and can be stored down to -45°C

photo_2020-10-02_08-40-50.jpg

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5 hours ago, Sebastian Meana said:

IS true that Benzene, and other aromatics cause cancer, and are a big issue, In Distilled Diesel from Oil refineries*, You don't actually need to distill it from oil, but with either the Fischer Tropsch or the STG+, Neste does produce synthetic diesel with any feedstock that is Carbon and Hydrogen, either be animal fat, oil, vegetable oil, natural gas, or whatever you wan't

Synthetic fuel contains, no sulfur, no aromatics, only paraffins and oleffins compounds, has higher cetane numbers between 75 and 85, doesn't smell, and can be stored down to -45°C

photo_2020-10-02_08-40-50.jpg

Sebastian,thank you for that. What is the availability and price? Is the feedstock plentiful enough?

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1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Sebastian,thank you for that. What is the availability and price? Is the feedstock plentiful enough?

That Neste Oil from what I have read is made out of Palm Oil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neste

If we are forgoing conventional diesel lets just skip straight to EV's for light vehicles and CNG - Hybrid systems for trucks and buses. 

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17 minutes ago, NickW said:

That Neste Oil from what I have read is made out of Palm Oil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neste

If we are forgoing conventional diesel lets just skip straight to EV's for light vehicles and CNG - Hybrid systems for trucks and buses. 

You have brought up a very good direction a hybrid driven propane car. With that being said it would still be quite expensive to the average Joe..Yet quite attractive to the mid level buyer, in the Auto business there are two types of customers..A wants buyer and a needs buyer, to that point i feel it quite safe to say 70% of the market are needs buyers.

Needs Buyer: Financial constraints.

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27 minutes ago, NickW said:

That Neste Oil from what I have read is made out of Palm Oil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neste

If we are forgoing conventional diesel lets just skip straight to EV's for light vehicles and CNG - Hybrid systems for trucks and buses. 

Glad to hear your support of hybrids. I have had many ideas about them being a natural answer. One example is a minimal ice engine and/or a generator that will keep a battery charging an EV. It could operate when parked in any OPEN space. No charger required. Of course it should be as quiet as possible. Add in braking energy charging the battery also. 

I have never seen a good discussion on the possible variations of hybrids. 

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(edited)

On 9/29/2020 at 6:33 AM, Jan van Eck said:

The last one was in 1938.  But that is not the issue.  Those big storms make New England landfall about once every 75 years, that has been the pattern.  So NE is now overdue for a serious hit.  There are several problems associated with the next landfall.  First, the tree growth is now over-saturated, lots and lots of very tall mature trees of several species, and lots of them right on the coast. It is anticipated that 100% of that tree cover will be felled.   Second, there is no feasible way of "cleaning up" such a large tree drop.   Third, several States will be totally paralyzed as the manpower and machinery is not there to clear the roads from fallen trees, and those "big ones" that fall will typically have a trunk diameter of several feet.  Fourth, until the trees are removed nobody can go to work on the power lines, and most of the lines will require re-setting new power poles, and there is not even remotely enough poles in stock to meet that requirement.  Fifth, to cut the trees on the road up, fist you have to ensure that the power lines themselves are shut off, and nobody can get to the disconnect points as the roads are all clogged with fallen timber. 

Sixth, these big storms typically happen at the end of the hurricane season, so it will be cold and darkness comes early.  The population will be stranded.   Seventh, huge numbers of people will need to be evacuated from homes due to lack of power, heat, and food, and so priority hs to go to removing displaced people, but there is no place for them to go and no transport to move them. Eighth, there is no provision for pets and you can anticipate that folks are going to flatly refuse to be evacuated without their pets.  So you are in chaos.  Ninth, you can anticipate large numbers of washouts of bridges and roads and there is no provision for expedient repairs, so several communities will be cut off.  Tenth, some 97% of New England fire departments are all-volunteer, and aside from the manpower not being available as the men will be attending to their own old folks and families, they will be utterly unable to cope with the large-scale fires that will result from such a storm. Eleventh, the insurers will be unable to cope and there will be no cash advances on claims, as there will be no plausible way to process claims.  Twelfth, essential services such as hospitals will fail because the personnel will be unable to rotate. 

The next big Cat-5 storm will thus result in mass collapse of effective government action.  With govts paralyzed, the people will be on their onw.  With no fuel, limited to no food, no heat, no reads to the outside, no ability to evacuate, you will have societal chaos.  It will take easily a year to recover to a functioning society.  Can society hold out that long?  I rather doubt it. 

If New York City gets hit with a Cat-5 then you may anticipate that all the road and subway tunnels under the East and Hudson Rivers will flood out, and the City will need to be evacuated.  Where do you put seven million people?  New Jersey?  I don't think so. 

The Federal FEMA is a historical backwater, a dumping round for incompetent managers who are political hangers-on.  FEMA will fail.  Can the military do the job?  Possibly, but remember the military is stretched thin, with deployments outside the USA.  The ability of FEMA and the military to respond to the whacking of Puerto Rico is not inspiring of confidence.  And Puerto Rico does not have a heating problem for the residents. Not one in one hundred people will be able to tough it out through a Cat-5.  All the rest, basically everybody, will have to be evacuated. And without any fuel for the transport, either.  That should be interesting.

Jan, so glad to see someone else concerned about, what I call, civil defense. We need to think about all sorts of changes in the way we think and prepare for disasters of all magnitudes. As a field medic and having a second career as an RN, MA. I often thought that we are sadly deficient in training, preparation and supplies. Fortunately we have been able to respond to the disasters we have had so far. 

I have had some ideas I think should be used:

1. Train a maximum number of people in basic medical care and train as many as possible in higher levels of care. Above the basic assistant you would have many levels and specialties. Most of the training could be done online and tests could be administered online. The military has many books that could be put online for training as do many civilian organizations. 

2. Former military medics should be automatically recruited into civilian part time jobs as trainers and leaders, They should also be encouraged and funded as RN's if they have the academic ability and proclivity. They could also consider a field such as EMTs, physicians assistants, and Nurse Practitioners. 

3. Medical supplies should be stored in all areas. Many have expiration dates and need to be checked regularly. Before the expiration date they should be donated to needy areas in the USA and abroad. 

4. We have a lot of vacant real estate and it should be used for temporary hospital overflow if needed. 

5. We need to keep a large supply of grains and food in reserve. Also water purification systems plus bottling and local delivery systems. 

6. A fleet of drones would be useful for hard to reach areas. 

7. Communication systems need to be widely available and redundant. Maybe bring back CBers or something better. Any suggestions?

8. Gasoline and diesel refilling stations should be mandated to have generator backup systems. 

9. Citizens should be encouraged to store basic emergency supplies and foods that would keep for a long term. Water filters are commonly available. Some can filter large amounts of water which would still need to be boiled in most cases. 

Edited by ronwagn
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(edited)

On 9/28/2020 at 7:08 PM, El Gato said:

Apparently you have never payed any attention to the lowly forklift or tow motor as it is known. They have had propane engines on them for years, and are the industry standard still. Them and electric ones

Propane is a cleaner option than diesel or gasoline. It cannot be used in unventilated buildings though. It is heavier than air and highly explosive. It can be used in any ICE engine and as dual fuel. 

http://www.runpropane.com/

Edited by ronwagn
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