Glut Guessing

Best ridiculous quote of the day as the world's favorite oil talking heads wrangle over whether 2018 is going to be bullish for oil: 

Published by Bloomberg about two divergent guesses on the oil glut. Actually can't believe they put this quote in the story. It's beyond stating the obvious to the point that it's not worthy at all:

“Both cannot be right,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Whichever way the pendulum swings will have a significant impact on the market.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-15/oil-in-2018-is-a-duel-between-visions-of-opec-victory-or-defeat

 

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ah, yes, some more brilliant analysis from the people we're taking investments tips from ... 

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Yes... brilliant. So let me get this straight. The analysts are saying that OPEC will either be right or wrong? PROFOUND

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maybe it's so profound that it seems simple? 

more divergence ... 

 

Screen Shot 2017-12-15 at 12.53.29 PM.png

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let's see how the talking heads regale us with their profundity with the rig count down today ... 

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I see Canada added 22 rigs, though, but Canadian oil is trading at a major discount to WTI right now

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I think IEA's forecast will trump OPEC's optimism. Consider this: 

“The U.S. alone can achieve almost all of the supply growth that OPEC forecasts globally in 2018,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “So, without question, the IEA’s forecast is more convincing.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-15/oil-in-2018-is-a-duel-between-visions-of-opec-victory-or-defeat

 

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14 minutes ago, LAOIL said:

I see Canada added 22 rigs, though, but Canadian oil is trading at a major discount to WTI right now

Yeah, trading at a discount because of pipeline bottlenecks that are keep it in Canada, and swelling oil in stroage.

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@rod I would trade in your earlier rig count poll for a poll on whether OPEC or IEA is on the mark here ... 

 

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Oil looking great going into this week. Trading above $60 with reports that OPEC November production slipped. 

 

Screen Shot 2017-12-17 at 5.56.30 PM.png

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I laughed out loud when I read this Hansen quote.  What's the point of even comparing a producers' organization with an international regulator? Their stakes in the matter are so not the same. Still amusing, though, and one of the sides (my money's on IEA for the moment) will have the chance to say "I told you so!" Don't you feel sometimes the world has become one huge kindergarten? Or has always been.

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