Tom Kirkman

BP sees oil falling to between $50 and $65

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Seems I'm not the only one who thinks oil prices should be at around $65.

For the last few years (2015 to 2017) I have commented ad nauseum that I hoped oil prices would average $50 to $60, but probably closer to $50.  For a few years, $50 seemed the psychological Goldilocks "sweet spot" of not too high and not too low.

This year, I finally upped my hoping to $65 as that Goldilocks sweet spot - not too high and not too low.

Perhaps just by coincidence, BP seems to currently share my opinion on oil prices.

BP chief executive sees shale, Opec oil cooling markets

"BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley expects a flood of US shale and the reopening of Opec taps to cool the oil market after crude rose above $80 a barrel this week.

US President Donald Trump's decision to exit an international nuclear deal with Iran and revive sanctions on the Opec member country, as well as Venezuela's plummeting output, has helped to lift oil prices to their highest since 2014.

But BP sees oil falling to between $50 and $65 a barrel due to surging shale output and Opec's capacity to boost production, Dudley told Reuters."


And just a reminder for the oil bulls who this week were calling for $300 oil next year, here is one of my old Oilpro articles from 3 years ago (thankfully I had republished this article on LinkedIn, since all of the Oilpro articles and content were erased last year).  Note that the first point in my article (shale oil) is echoed in the current BP prediction.

Why Oil is Unlikely to Hit $200 in the Next Decade  (Feb 2015 article)

"Recently, OPEC has stated that oil may reach $200 / barrel if investment doesn't continue. I disagree. ..."


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YES!!! $300 oil is the most ridiculous prediction I've heard (even more ridiculous than wild bitcoin predictions because at least bitcoin doesn't have much by way of actual fundamentals to follow yet). $80 oil is artificial. $60-$65 oil seems in line with fundamentals. 

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Yes, I find it difficult to believe that some overly bullish people can call for $300 oil with a straight face.

$300 oil would decimate the global economy.  

If oil prices increase drastically, then demand will reduce, which will increase supply, which will lower prices.

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