Dan Warnick

U.S. Presidential Elections Status - Electoral Votes

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2020 Presidential Election Live Results

A live counter is available at the link.  Brown colored states have not been called as yet.  Red is for Trump and Blue is for Biden.

If you guys would be so kind, add a current snapshot of the Electoral Map if I haven't updated it in a while.  Thanks.

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Just after midnight on the east coast of the U.S.:

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They just called Iowa (IA) for Trump, which is +6 EC Votes.  Makes Trump having 210, so the race is tied right now.

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Google shows 223 to 118

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NC is gonna recount, and Pennsylvania is a mess.  Contested election, folks.  Won't find out for at least another week.  

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(edited)

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I do believe Trump just won.

I believe so, too, but we won't find out until next week.  

 

234 + 35 = 269.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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It's weird being excited but not. Mabey it's because oils up tho. Haha. 

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Just now, Zhong Lu said:

I believe so, too, but we won't find out until next week.  

I not to sure about that....if I'm right he won't will not allow a few key players to leave the country.

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Just now, Rob Kramer said:

It's weird being excited but not. Mabey it's because oils up tho. Haha. 

For now, yeah.  

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14 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I not to sure about that....if I'm right he won't will not allow a few key players to leave the country.

What do you mean "key players"?

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237 Biden, 213 Trump.  Almost 1 a.m. on the east coast.

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(edited)

Time to sleep.  Whatever happens, it's not as if the S&P is gonna drop 10% in after hours/ pre market, right?

Edited by Zhong Lu

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(edited)

This is a live feed EC Vote counter.

Edited by Dan Warnick

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4 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I do believe Trump just won.

Obviously, as the stats require Biden to have 3/4 or more of the uncounted votes to win any of those states. Early voting did not give him over 65% in any of those states, not to speak of MI WI where Biden didn't manage that much of a lead over a substantial number of ballots.

AZ may not actually turn to Biden.

 

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1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

Obviously, as the stats require Biden to have 3/4 or more of the uncounted votes to win any of those states. Early voting did not give him over 65% in any of those states, not to speak of MI WI where Biden didn't manage that much of a lead over a substantial number of ballots.

AZ may not actually turn to Biden.

 

Arizona has not finalized the counts from Phoenix and Tucson, which are probably their 2 biggest cities, and more, so it's certainly not over until the results of the light Pink and Blue portions.

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(edited)

Here is the Electoral map.  If the Pink states finish out as wins for Trump his total electoral numbers will be 283 (270 to win).  Pink colored states are worth 70 votes in total.  Light Blue states NV & WI for Biden equal 16 votes total, giving Biden 254 total Electoral votes.

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Edited by Dan Warnick

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Michigan will flip blue in the next few hours

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(edited)

31 minutes ago, notsonice said:

Michigan will flip blue in the next few hours

That's certainly possible.  Trump only leads the popular vote by 55,813 votes at this time and looking at this map they still haven't finalized Detroit, Lansing, and Marquette who are all leaning towards Biden.  I also heard a Fox News analyst talking about how Michigan does not count mail-in votes until election day (each state makes its own rules on things like this), and mail-in votes were largely in Biden's favor nationwide.  So it's possible, we'll have to see how the count goes.

For those not familiar with the elections in the U.S., you will also notice below that there are actually 3 other parties running for President (that are getting much smaller numbers voting for them).  So you normally only hear about the 2 main parties, but there is usually at least one other minor party running in an election cycle.  In this case there are 3 other minor parties with a showing in this state.  In certain election cycles, these minor parties can make trouble for the major parties because they can take away voters that would otherwise vote for them, thus tipping the scales and "reversing fortunes", you might say.  In this case the minor parties have collected a total of 71,422 votes so far.   That's enough to change this state to a Biden win if they all voted for Biden instead of the minor party (just an example).

Finally, if this state flips to Biden, that's 16 electoral votes that would be taken away from Trump, giving him a total of only 267, which is 3 votes shy of the 270 needed to win.

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Edited by Dan Warnick

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Whats the likelihood of Nevada turning red??

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38 minutes ago, notsonice said:

Michigan will flip blue in the next few hours

Looks like it is going that way. A small portion of GOP turnout had to have voted Biden. Do you know if all the rural MI vote has been counted?

That leaves GA NC with a small but clear margin. The remaining precincts in both have less of a vote than the margin Trump has so far. The PA count is going to get closer as they count city VBM ballots but the required votes are just not there. The 25% of the vote remaining at this point would have to break 19:6 (76%) to overcome the current 12.6% lead. Calculating more carefully from the EV data and assuming no more GOP Biden votes than Dem Trump votes, then about 1.7% of the margin is fairly secure. So PA should be in Trump's hands if they don't have enough cooked votes in the precincts where Republican Election monitors were kept out of the polls.

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4 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Whats the likelihood of Nevada turning red??

Also possible.  Biden only has a 7,647 vote lead and only 67% of the vote has been counted.  Depends on how the big cities of Reno and Las Vegas tally up, but they look to be Biden-leaning cities according to this map.

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Doing the same calculation for MI, the result is a tie. Trump with a 17k margin, 0.3% which would also require a recount.

Nevada would turn out with -10k, a Biden win of 0.6%, also would require a recount.

 

 

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So we are still with a tiny margin in MI (or NV) deciding the election.

 

 

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