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Taiwan Semiconductor has a 50% global share in the foundry. You can't have the next iPhone 5G without their technology. This basically is what puts semiconductors at the center of the war between the U.S. and China. 

Why? Because semiconductors power the modern world. And nobody can make semiconductors like TSM. 

Believe it or not, those semiconductors are important enough to future technological advances that whoever controls them controls the technology innovation space and therefore the world. This seems so bizarre as I write it, but that's the way it is. 

No Taiwan Semiconductor, no 5G. No 5G, no compete in the world marketplace. 

This is so dispositive that I would be very surprised if Taiwan Semiconductor didn't telescope its operations somewhere else. For example, they're building a fabrication plant in Arizona. This also signals that they want a closer relationship with the United States.  

China has deeper reasons for going after Taiwan, but it's the threat of losing the semiconductor that has them jelly-kneed. With a Biden presidency, I see an acquiescence that would stun Confucius. I truly don't think Mr. Biden has the mojo for much of a conflict, with anyone.  

 

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35 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Taiwan Semiconductor has a 50% global share in the foundry. You can't have the next iPhone 5G without their technology. This basically is what puts semiconductors at the center of the war between the U.S. and China. 

Why? Because semiconductors power the modern world. And nobody can make semiconductors like TSM. 

Believe it or not, those semiconductors are important enough to future technological advances that whoever controls them controls the technology innovation space and therefore the world. This seems so bizarre as I write it, but that's the way it is. 

No Taiwan Semiconductor, no 5G. No 5G, no compete in the world marketplace. 

This is so dispositive that I would be very surprised if Taiwan Semiconductor didn't telescope its operations somewhere else. For example, they're building a fabrication plant in Arizona. This also signals that they want a closer relationship with the United States.  

China has deeper reasons for going after Taiwan, but it's the threat of losing the semiconductor that has them jelly-kneed. With a Biden presidency, I see an acquiescence that would stun Confucius. I truly don't think Mr. Biden has the mojo for much of a conflict, with anyone.  

 

He is beginning to fracture already, one simple unanticipated question during a staged event and poof! up in smoke. https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-cbs-news-reporter-bo-erickson

Good old uncle Joe and those damm lying dog faced pony soldiers..

Perhaps a time to go beyond talks of ww2 war strategies. We live in a time of tech and technical warfare that might challenge the minds of many in terms of a sudden and violent confrontation. The Chinese naval group may well look great in a parade, but when called to task, abject failure comes to mind. The very infa structure is archaic..have a read

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-chinas-aircraft-carriers-compare-to-us-navy-flattops-2020-10

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4 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Perhaps a time to go beyond talks of ww2 war strategies. We live in a time of tech and technical warfare that might challenge the minds of many in terms of a sudden and violent confrontation.

You are correct.

The US has states full of people who think a simple gun is an effective weapon of war.  How cute.  Sure you can use it to shoot your wife, neighbour, and yourself, but is is not an effective means of modern warfare anymore.

Computers are the new weapons.  Watch how fast a nation can be destabilized once our software attacks the infrastructure network. 

Like Stuxnet but far more distributed.

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On 11/22/2020 at 7:19 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Taiwan Semiconductor has a 50% global share in the foundry. You can't have the next iPhone 5G without their technology. This basically is what puts semiconductors at the center of the war between the U.S. and China. 

Why? Because semiconductors power the modern world. And nobody can make semiconductors like TSM. 

Believe it or not, those semiconductors are important enough to future technological advances that whoever controls them controls the technology innovation space and therefore the world. This seems so bizarre as I write it, but that's the way it is. 

No Taiwan Semiconductor, no 5G. No 5G, no compete in the world marketplace. 

This is so dispositive that I would be very surprised if Taiwan Semiconductor didn't telescope its operations somewhere else. For example, they're building a fabrication plant in Arizona. This also signals that they want a closer relationship with the United States.  

China has deeper reasons for going after Taiwan, but it's the threat of losing the semiconductor that has them jelly-kneed. With a Biden presidency, I see an acquiescence that would stun Confucius. I truly don't think Mr. Biden has the mojo for much of a conflict, with anyone.  

 

TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, those are the big dogs, and only TSMC is a foundry, so many chip companies now are fabless, or just run pilot R&D lines. You are so right, hard to underestimate TSMC's importance.

That said, so much of 5G isn't 8 micron state-of-the-art. Analogue chips, essential for the tech, and more likely to be 40 microns. Working on a project with the US Broadcom. 

That wonderful modern smart phone has 100s of chips, but only two or three leading edge ones in some senses. The US still has some leading edge chops, just need more thru put.

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On 11/25/2020 at 10:51 AM, John Foote said:

TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, those are the big dogs, and only TSMC is a foundry, so many chip companies now are fabless, or just run pilot R&D lines. You are so right, hard to underestimate TSMC's importance.

That said, so much of 5G isn't 8 micron state-of-the-art. Analogue chips, essential for the tech, and more likely to be 40 microns. Working on a project with the US Broadcom. 

That wonderful modern smart phone has 100s of chips, but only two or three leading edge ones in some senses. The US still has some leading edge chops, just need more thru put.

True. Currently, China lags behind the producers you note. But the gap will be closed soon.

China claims TW as part of its territory taken away by force and now supported by a foreign power by threat of force. This is vastly different from any commercial value TSMC may present, especially in a tech world wherein the pace of tech advancement renders products obsolete in a few months.

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On 11/23/2020 at 12:42 AM, Enthalpic said:

You are correct.

The US has states full of people who think a simple gun is an effective weapon of war.  How cute.  Sure you can use it to shoot your wife, neighbour, and yourself, but is is not an effective means of modern warfare anymore.

Computers are the new weapons.  Watch how fast a nation can be destabilized once our software attacks the infrastructure network. 

Like Stuxnet but far more distributed.

This is proven by how we have rolled over Afghanistan the last 19 years and made it into a peaceful, Taliban-free paradise.

Another good example is Portland, Oregon where we have stopped the rioting, looting, and burning.

It was really cool how we deposed Assad of Syria with a flip of the switch.

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(edited)

23 minutes ago, Michael Sanches said:

 

Another good example is Portland, Oregon where we have stopped the rioting, looting, and burning.

It was really cool how we deposed Assad of Syria with a flip of the switch.

Those are your failures - not ours. 

Trump fails are common.

Edited by Enthalpic

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(edited)

11 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Those are your failures - not ours. 

Trump fails are common.

Lay of the bud or turn the heater back on. It would seem the synapse's are experiencing a connectivity issue'...Maybe just a cheese burger.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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55 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Lay of the bud or turn the heater back on. It would seem the synapse's are experiencing a connectivity issue'...Maybe just a cheese burger.

Gain a sense of humour.  Only Ward thinks I'm a collective.

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On 11/26/2020 at 2:12 AM, frankfurter said:

True. Currently, China lags behind the producers you note. But the gap will be closed soon.

China claims TW as part of its territory taken away by force and now supported by a foreign power by threat of force. This is vastly different from any commercial value TSMC may present, especially in a tech world wherein the pace of tech advancement renders products obsolete in a few months.

The gap, technically and in volume, chip production wise, is quite substantial, and US policy is working hard to keep it that way. You can't American made and ship to SMIC soon.

Imagine trying to do Fabs without AMAT, or Lam. You can't. A source of grief to the folks that buy the tools.

In efforts not widely publicized, but similar to how the US tries to keep Iranian oil off the market, foreign tool manufacturers are also under heavy pressure not to sell state-of-the-art. Maybe five years ago technology, but not state of the art. If someone, anyone, thinks you could knock off high end semiconductor manufacturing tools, it would have been done some time ago. It takes a few years and over the years it's gone from a garage industry and tools made by the original semiconductor companies, to highly specialized and full of theoretical PhD physicists with years in the business. Hard to clone them. And the process recipes are extremely well guarded quite well. TSMC figured out 8 nano meter and even Intell struggled, and buying from the same manufacturers. Leading edge tools are collaborative with the manufacturer as well. I've seen the specs on what goes to China. Mid-90s stuff. Still very impressive.

The strange relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland benefits them both. Nixon was right, above all money is the power they seek, and taking down Taiwan would cause economic disruptions hard to overstate. More for the West than China, but a definite lose/lose.

The IOT, internet of everything, that will explode the use of semiconductors. As BTO would say, you ain't seen nothing yet. The pie is expanding faster than ever. Tools that were expected to be obsolete 15 years ago, new ones are being built for raw capacity, and the factories making the tool are booked to capacity and looking to expand. 

Most of the chips in China won't be leading edge design, and yes, China is on a fab building spree like the world has never known. But it will be five years before it really starts to impact.

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(edited)

Odd you speaking to China building fabs on a that level. In 2011 Intel began construction on facilities in Hillsboro OR. on a level that is still strange to this day. Strange defined...Knife River delivered thousands of truck delivery's of base rock for foundation's. At the time i knew a logistics foreman for Knife River the logistics just overwhelmed him. Listening to him it was as if Intel was laying mountains of rock. Yet no news of it..and as of now they are cutting back personal in large numbers locally.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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4 hours ago, John Foote said:

The gap, technically and in volume, chip production wise, is quite substantial, and US policy is working hard to keep it that way. You can't American made and ship to SMIC soon.

Imagine trying to do Fabs without AMAT, or Lam. You can't. A source of grief to the folks that buy the tools.

In efforts not widely publicized, but similar to how the US tries to keep Iranian oil off the market, foreign tool manufacturers are also under heavy pressure not to sell state-of-the-art. Maybe five years ago technology, but not state of the art. If someone, anyone, thinks you could knock off high end semiconductor manufacturing tools, it would have been done some time ago. It takes a few years and over the years it's gone from a garage industry and tools made by the original semiconductor companies, to highly specialized and full of theoretical PhD physicists with years in the business. Hard to clone them. And the process recipes are extremely well guarded quite well. TSMC figured out 8 nano meter and even Intell struggled, and buying from the same manufacturers. Leading edge tools are collaborative with the manufacturer as well. I've seen the specs on what goes to China. Mid-90s stuff. Still very impressive.

The strange relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland benefits them both. Nixon was right, above all money is the power they seek, and taking down Taiwan would cause economic disruptions hard to overstate. More for the West than China, but a definite lose/lose.

The IOT, internet of everything, that will explode the use of semiconductors. As BTO would say, you ain't seen nothing yet. The pie is expanding faster than ever. Tools that were expected to be obsolete 15 years ago, new ones are being built for raw capacity, and the factories making the tool are booked to capacity and looking to expand. 

Most of the chips in China won't be leading edge design, and yes, China is on a fab building spree like the world has never known. But it will be five years before it really starts to impact.

valid points. but I shall be not surprised if China shaves a few years off your estimates.

 

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Anecdotally, the USA obsession with China makes me suspect the USA has already been overtaken 

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On 11/12/2020 at 4:00 PM, Boat said:

Of course the US would retaliate over Taiwan, Hong Cong, South China Sea etc.

The reason there are not dozens of countries with nuclear weapons is the promise of retaliation by the US if your a basically fair trading partner with the Western world.

The US would have to demonstrate military superiority if China attacked basically anybody except Iran, N Korea, Syria, Russia. You know, traditional bad actors. But who knows the US might not like that either.

Any real attack against U.S. forces would immediately stop most trade with China, Russia, or any other country. Even under a Biden administration. We would at least go into cold war mode. If not the political kickback would be severe. China will happily put Taiwan on the back burner while it devour us as it did before Trump. It is salivating right now. All the while it will try to appear reasonable to the world. Australia and Canada are presently suffering economically for taking a stand against China. The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia  are already getting worried about their sea borders. 

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Since my current situation (extreme angry because of AMD and Nvidia) has to do much with the product of a "Foundry" and since Taiwan is the Saudi Arabia of these it seems, could they be easy evacuated? Why Taiwan for these (more or less) new 7 up to 14nm process or the 300mm wafers? Costs for employees should be a small part for such high tech?! I would want the EU to protect the save CPU/GPU and SoC production, except apple products^^

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4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Any real attack against U.S. forces would immediately stop most trade with China, Russia, or any other country. Even under a Biden administration. We would at least go into cold war mode. If not the political kickback would be severe. China will happily put Taiwan on the back burner while it devour us as it did before Trump. It is salivating right now. All the while it will try to appear reasonable to the world. Australia and Canada are presently suffering economically for taking a stand against China. The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia  are already getting worried about their sea borders. 

Devour? All they have done is piss off most of their trading partners. You call this acting reasonable and then list allies that don’t think it’s reasonable. 
You do know Japan, South Korea, India, the US and others all joined in the South China Sea in a show of force. They don’t look devoured. 

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7 hours ago, Boat said:

Devour? All they have done is piss off most of their trading partners. You call this acting reasonable and then list allies that don’t think it’s reasonable. 
You do know Japan, South Korea, India, the US and others all joined in the South China Sea in a show of force. They don’t look devoured. 

Boat, we just "elected",maybe, Biden. He is beholden to China and his son is totally exposed and should be going to prison. The American people have little choice but to buy the products available for a reasonable price. The media do not tell the truth and hide the truth. So who is pissed off enough to actually do anything regarding trade without Trump's leadership? Watch the Demoncrats and RINOS trying to kiss the asses of the Chinese. Do you think we will really switch our manufacturing to alternate countries without Trump? What other countries will face the reality and oppose China in any meaningful way? Serious questions. I would like everyone's opinion. 

Edited by ronwagn
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So if Americans are buying China stuff for the best bang for the buck, what’s not to like. 
What part of the media you worried about, Fox? Look, China hacked our F-35 data. Thats about as bad as it can get. They also have been bad actors in many other areas. But the military umbrella by the US has not gone away. Trump through tariffs has warned them of their bad behavior. 9 out of 10 of Chinas top trading partners are our allies. We have China by the nuts, not the other way around. Where we and our allies have been weak is just a lack of fair policies allowing China enough rope to get into trouble. I believe corporate power over all of us peons was good and bad but definitely not controlled enough. Put your fear aside.

Worst case scenario China does not join the free trading world norms. Well, over time in a joint effort the US and allies wind down trading and isolate China. 

But make no mistake we are still the worlds policeman at least when it comes to proportionate military response to a bad China incident.

Edited by Boat
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I will give Trump credit for taking some of corporate power away to problem solve. We will see how Biden runs his show. But it’s not like Trump stopped Musk from building a new car factory. It’s not like trading has stopped. It’s not like the trade imbalance has improved. It’s not like China’s troublemaking has improved. 

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On 11/8/2020 at 6:26 PM, frankfurter said:

Are you prepared to fight the most costly, the most deadly, most destructive war in history over an island of no value to you?

 

 

Give peace a chance "John Lennon" 1969

Edited by john fletcher
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On 12/1/2020 at 12:15 AM, Boat said:

So if Americans are buying China stuff for the best bang for the buck, what’s not to like. 
What part of the media you worried about, Fox? Look, China hacked our F-35 data. Thats about as bad as it can get. They also have been bad actors in many other areas. But the military umbrella by the US has not gone away. Trump through tariffs has warned them of their bad behavior. 9 out of 10 of Chinas top trading partners are our allies. We have China by the nuts, not the other way around. Where we and our allies have been weak is just a lack of fair policies allowing China enough rope to get into trouble. I believe corporate power over all of us peons was good and bad but definitely not controlled enough. Put your fear aside.

Worst case scenario China does not join the free trading world norms. Well, over time in a joint effort the US and allies wind down trading and isolate China. 

But make no mistake we are still the worlds policeman at least when it comes to proportionate military response to a bad China incident.

My concern is people living under totalitarian regimes. China trade should be minimized, not maximized. The evils of the CCP will not be reduced without weakening their power. They are the equivalent of Nazis and their goals are much more threatening in the long run. 

See China Stories: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Wb2YoQGpSWTz32ljsiA_ey6FLVqc2Dpe7Fnpiqn9lBs/edit

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On 12/7/2020 at 12:44 AM, ronwagn said:

My concern is people living under totalitarian regimes. China trade should be minimized, not maximized. The evils of the CCP will not be reduced without weakening their power. They are the equivalent of Nazis and their goals are much more threatening in the long run. 

See China Stories: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Wb2YoQGpSWTz32ljsiA_ey6FLVqc2Dpe7Fnpiqn9lBs/edit

While I supported Trumps tarrifs against China he wasn’t clear enough about what China needs to change and what it will cost them if they don’t. Get-er-done. List the issues on a timeline with the consequences for noncompliance. Get your allies involved and broadcast your backbone to the world. 

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On 11/8/2020 at 3:26 AM, frankfurter said:

For all of 2020, the USA govt and media has very strong rhetoric against China, and has now implemented a wide array of sanctions. China has responded with strong rhetoric and a few sanctions. China has desired to regain total control of Taiwan: whereas the USA has desired to prevent this. How such a conflict will end, and when, is moot at this time. But it raises key questions.

If China sends troops to Taiwan, are Americans prepared for a war with China to "liberate" Taiwan? How would this play out for Americans? Any war with China will be on a massive scale, and nuclear: unprecedented in history. Are Americans prepared for their massive deaths from such a war? What about the nuclear fallout that will poison the air and ocean for unknown time?  What would Americans hope to gain: there is simply nothing of value in Taiwan for America. China can retaliate to ensure America is on the receiving end of nuclear missiles. etc.

So let's hear from Americans.  Are you prepared to fight the most costly, the most deadly, most destructive war in history over an island of no value to you?

 

 

Hey FRANKIE,  if you a member of the CCP then why hide what you are?  The last great war began with a pro-genocidal regime.  You are looking for a honest reply from a person who is not American and embraces peace.  So here it is...The PROC concentration camps, organ harvesting and new crematoria look eerily familiar and likely move the world closer to war. 

How do you square that circle, my friend? 

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(edited)

On 11/27/2020 at 3:47 PM, John Foote said:

Most of the chips in China won't be leading edge design, and yes, China is on a fab building spree like the world has never known. But it will be five years before it really starts to impact.

You can build all the fabs you want, unless you have the cutting edge machines and expertise to fill them up it's really a wasted investment. SMIC has been around for some time now and they need state support to stay in business. A bunch more fabs of SMIC's caliber won't mean anything. It's no different than all those coal power plants that run at half capacity yet more get built every day.

Edited by Strangelovesurfing
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USA will back all Asia. Except china. They will look at Japan. there will be a huge mining explosion and tech to make Africa great. a Horn of plenty will explode growth. To have this fourth revolution oil and gas will power us in to a immense transformation. 

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