United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

Wholesale prices in Germany have been fairly stable since 2010. Its taxes that are responsible for most of that increase. 

Some of that tax has been to support renewables with tax credits. others have been to support end use efficiency programs as well as public transport (electrification of rail, trams etc) 

The Germany economy has hardly suffered.  Its got the highest / 2nd highest trade balance in the World. 

Yes, buddying up with China and Russia pays in the short run for them. Merkel has been their Manchurian candidate and a big winner. She has really messed up German culture from what I have seen. 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

For a quick, 'layman's explanation of just what Texans are currently experiencing with this cold snap impacting electricity prices ...

As per this posting, the ERCOT Day Ahead data for today -  Sunday, the 14th - Houston customers will pay a cost $7,000 per Megawatthour wholesale during the morning and evening 'rush hours'.  If this appears on a retail bill (usually the case, although nominal mark ups are permitted by various regulatory agencies throughout the country), then Mr. Houstonian will pay $7/Kilowatthour.

That is, having ten 100 watt incandenscent light bulbs on for one hour will cost 7 bucks (versus the 20 cents normal cost).

These wholesale costs are determined in increments of 5 minutes, averaged into hourly/daily/monthly segments and then presented as a bill  to the end customer, often several months into the future as the averaging/layering in billing process somewhat buffers customers from abrupt, dramatic increases.

Although the above is illustrative, and not completely explanatory, this current cold snap will (should?) prompt in depth, honest examination of all the components that have brought this situation to arise (skyrocketingly expensive, tenuous electricity service, that is).

There are many electrical systems across the globe that are not too far away from experiencing Texas' current drama, although the particulars vary from locale to locale.

[NickW + 2,714]

10 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Yes, buddying up with China and Russia pays in the short run for them. Merkel has been their Manchurian candidate and a big winner. She has really messed up German culture from what I have seen. 

You might want to take a look at the destination of German exports and who holds the No.1 spot 😉

Germany Exports By Country (tradingeconomics.com)

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

For a quick, 'layman's explanation of just what Texans are currently experiencing with this cold snap impacting electricity prices ...

As per this posting, the ERCOT Day Ahead data for today -  Sunday, the 14th - Houston customers will pay a cost $7,000 per Megawatthour wholesale during the morning and evening 'rush hours'.  If this appears on a retail bill (usually the case, although nominal mark ups are permitted by various regulatory agencies throughout the country), then Mr. Houstonian will pay $7/Kilowatthour.

That is, having ten 100 watt incandenscent light bulbs on for one hour will cost 7 bucks (versus the 20 cents normal cost).

These wholesale costs are determined in increments of 5 minutes, averaged into hourly/daily/monthly segments and then presented as a bill  to the end customer, often several months into the future as the averaging/layering in billing process somewhat buffers customers from abrupt, dramatic increases.

Although the above is illustrative, and not completely explanatory, this current cold snap will (should?) prompt in depth, honest examination of all the components that have brought this situation to arise (skyrocketingly expensive, tenuous electricity service, that is).

There are many electrical systems across the globe that are not too far away from experiencing Texas' current drama, although the particulars vary from locale to locale.

My electricity is purchased through Constellation, which is in Texas although I live in central Illinois. It is a vendor of sorts. I imagine that they are being hurt financially by all this. We are allowed to chose our vendor from all offers. I hope there is nothing in my agreement that raises my bill. The taxes and my delivery charges are nearly as high as the natural gas and the electricity. https://www.constellation.com/

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/22675-ng-spot-prices-hit-triple-digits-for-weekend-delivery/

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 minutes ago, NickW said:

You might want to take a look at the destination of German exports and who holds the No.1 spot 😉

Germany Exports By Country (tradingeconomics.com)

They think China will be taking over the top spot. I realize Americans love German cars. I have never had one. Many are assembled in South Carolina which does benefit the U.S. I have had three South Korean and three Japanese plus Ford, Chevrolet, and Mercury. 

[NickW + 2,714]

8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

They think China will be taking over the top spot. I realize Americans love German cars. I have never had one. Many are assembled in South Carolina which does benefit the U.S. I have had three South Korean and three Japanese plus Ford, Chevrolet, and Mercury. 

Given Chinas population size thats fairly predictable in the long run. 

I always opt for UK built Japanese cars - either Toyota or Nissan. We currently have an Auris (Corolla) estate and hatch. 

 

[Boat + 1,324]

On 12/21/2020 at 7:37 PM, ronwagn said:

Russia has carried on a major propaganda campaign, against fracking, in the United States and Europe for a decade. 

FACTS

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/china-worlds-largest-energy-consumer-and-greenhouse-gas-emitter/

[Boat + 1,324]

You can see the Chinese energy transition in action. There are many complaints about China in many areas but moving towards cleaner energy is not one of them. 

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Boat

The Haoji rail line just came online a year ago.

This engineering marvel is over 1,000 miles long, cost almost $30 billion (that's 30 billion) and is specifically designed to transport 200 million tonnes per year of Inner Mongolian coal.

That is enough to fuel 60 massive 1,000 Megawatt coal plants.

Several of the mines in Inner Mongolia are open pit.

 

I will never understand how so many people can exhort their fellow citizens to continue to sacrifice in so many areas when other nations are charging ahead and demonstrably embracing pathways that are so roundly demonized in much of the rest of the world.

 

When, Boat, when will we see Greta standing at a podium in Bejing and giving Xi a vicious tongue lashing?

 

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Boat

The Haoji rail line just came online a year ago.

This engineering marvel is over 1,000 miles long, cost almost $30 billion (that's 30 billion) and is specifically designed to transport 200 million tonnes per year of Inner Mongolian coal.

That is enough to fuel 60 massive 1,000 Megawatt coal plants.

Several of the mines in Inner Mongolia are open pit.

 

I will never understand how so many people can exhort their fellow citizens to continue to sacrifice in so many areas when other nations are charging ahead and demonstrably embracing pathways that are so roundly demonized in much of the rest of the world.

 

When, Boat, when will we see Greta standing at a podium in Bejing and giving Xi a vicious tongue lashing?

 

If that 200mt was effectively stranded coal before the rail line was built then this would explain one reason why suddenly China bans the import of Aussie thermal coal when then extra home supply becomes available. 

It wont be 200mt of extra coal to burn. Just displace imports. 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 hour ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

The Haoji rail line just came online a year ago.

This engineering marvel is over 1,000 miles long, cost almost $30 billion (that's 30 billion) and is specifically designed to transport 200 million tonnes per year of Inner Mongolian coal.

That is enough to fuel 60 massive 1,000 Megawatt coal plants.

Several of the mines in Inner Mongolia are open pit.

Well, I suppose you can look at it this way: about ten million EV's could be charged from all that extra energy. 😊

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Let me tell you a secret - Russia is an ideal trading partner for the entire EU and Germany in particular.

It sells to the Union mainly raw materials of all kinds in huge amounts, including more and more food - whether Europe likes it or not, the Union has to buy it somewhere. 

Russia  does not put this large ammount  of money in her pocket, but buys European goods especially machinery , which is an ideal business for the European Union.

And the invasion of Ukraine, Georgia or Belarus? In my opinion  most people in the western world have this kind of associations - its part of Russia, part of the former USSR, generally the so-called "Russian mir" and the Russian sphere of influence.

And there is a problem because the role of Europe is increasingly being replaced by China - in Russia, you no longer buy Western smartphones, but Chinese ones, there are more and more Chinese cars, there are even Chinese car factories.

Sure, Chinese cars are probably much worse, but much cheaper.

The most popular smartphone in Russia- Huawei. The most popular online store - Alibaba. Partner building the 5G network - Huawei.

Well, it could have been German and French companies and thats a problem for Merkel an Macron.

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Maddox

While we all (most of us) may  find your EV-charging comment amusing, there were actually a few articles posted on 'environmental' sites that touted the fact that these trains are actually electrically powered.

Electrically powered.

Coal trains delivering 200 million tonnes per year are admirable since they are run on electricity.

 

Just speechless ...

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

6 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. Maddox

While we all (most of us) may  find your EV-charging comment amusing, there were actually a few articles posted on 'environmental' sites that touted the fact that these trains are actually electrically powered.

Electrically powered.

Coal trains delivering 200 million tonnes per year are admirable since they are run on electricity.

 

Just speechless ...

Just speechless...Clear Conscience and to the Point.

[Coffeeguyzz + 454]

Mr. Tomasz

While I cannot speak for others, the fossils from my generation were raised in an intense Cold War environment with the USSR  being openly recognized as an avowed and proximate mortal threat.

With the then-current Cuban Missile Crisis reinforcing our school time practice of ducking under desks in weekly drills, my generation was raised to view the Soviets/Communists as loathsome enemies.

 

Fast forward to 1992, and beyond, a great many changes have occurred. (Duh).

A strong case may be put forth that the Bolsheviks who ruled the USSR for decades have been displaced from power.

Indeed, the last 20 years have shown a staunch Russia First policy by the Kremlin's present leadership, not too dissimilar (in relating to the USA)  from that of  a certain American leader who - quelle surprise - has also been excoriated at every turn.

The newly opened Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces may manifest  the true, powerful sentiments of current Russian authorities, despite the non stop MSM vitriol claiming otherwise.

Kinda makes ya wonder ...

 

Americans, Mr. Tomasz,  could not - one in a hundred -  identify the Donbass, let alone  point to it on a map.

South Ossetia?

Fugeddaboutit.

We rely upon our leaders, our political/governmental authorities to act in the interests of our country with a strong inclination to do no harm in the process.

 

The fact that my last sentence is so obscenely unrealized is a shame to us all in this country.

We men of goodwill, worldwide, Mr. Tomasz, will continue to strive to kindle effective self education amongst our fellow global citizens  ... all the while remaining keenly aware that Bad Actors of all stripes -  whether  by design or through ignorance - are ever present to wreak mayhem as can be seen throughout all times and places in human history.

 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

This is pure gold!

Gold, I say!

Were I but one-half as eloquent!

This could allow us to save the country, should enough good men (and women) climb aboard the Goodwill Train.

[Gerd Wölbling (Woelbling) + 2]

Well, electricity is just one of the smaller sectors Germany aims to decarbonise.Talking about primary energy consumptioon, you see that the share of renewables is somewhere around 15-17%, due to tghe large share of Renewables in the Elctricity sector and some minor shares in Heating and the fuel sector. Even though there is massive support from the Government and some "Greenies", we have noticed some "dangerous" leverage with regard to the majority of apartment renters having to bear the costs for thw Renewable Energy feed in tariffs/ subsidies, while well-off House owner being able to afford to invest in Solar PV and heat pumps have been the ones, that profited. This is going to happen again with EVs, now those people, that  own a already depreciated PV now by a EV massively supported by tax breaks and subsidies from the state. While again people that live in flats and apartment blocks, who are happy to have a found a parking spot, are not willing and most of the time also not a financially well-off enough as well, being able to purchase a BEV. Having grown up in Eastern Germany, this more and more reminds of the way, we have screwed up our state. One famous example, which has some analogy with the electricity was, that you could sell eggs on "wholesale" level to the Grocery store for a higher price, than the retail price, so eventually you sold the eggs and bought them back at a cheaper price on the counter. 
This is were Germany wants to go https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/indicator-primary-energy-consumption#at-a-glance
 

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Let me tell you a secret - Russia is an ideal trading partner for the entire EU and Germany in particular.

It sells to the Union mainly raw materials of all kinds in huge amounts, including more and more food - whether Europe likes it or not, the Union has to buy it somewhere. 

Russia  does not put this large ammount  of money in her pocket, but buys European goods especially machinery , which is an ideal business for the European Union.

And the invasion of Ukraine, Georgia or Belarus? In my opinion  most people in the western world have this kind of associations - its part of Russia, part of the former USSR, generally the so-called "Russian mir" and the Russian sphere of influence.

And there is a problem because the role of Europe is increasingly being replaced by China - in Russia, you no longer buy Western smartphones, but Chinese ones, there are more and more Chinese cars, there are even Chinese car factories.

Sure, Chinese cars are probably much worse, but much cheaper.

The most popular smartphone in Russia- Huawei. The most popular online store - Alibaba. Partner building the 5G network - Huawei.

Well, it could have been German and French companies and thats a problem for Merkel an Macron.

Thats handy. Once they infiltrate your telecoms network they can steal all Russias cutting edge technology. No need to worry about patents or paying licence fees for usage. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

20 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

The Haoji rail line just came online a year ago.

This engineering marvel is over 1,000 miles long, cost almost $30 billion (that's 30 billion) and is specifically designed to transport 200 million tonnes per year of Inner Mongolian coal.

That is enough to fuel 60 massive 1,000 Megawatt coal plants.

Several of the mines in Inner Mongolia are open pit.

Coffee, you always give us great information about energy, particularly natural gas. 

If you have the time and inclination, I would appreciate more information. 

This will of course become known as the "Electricity Decade." But just today, the ERCOT grid faces a 10Gw shortage. Solar and wind have failed for the last three days in Texas. In even such a redundant grid as ERCOT, in a state producing more natural gas than one can imagine, there seems to be a humanitarian crisis today--with the threat of real, even catastrophic loss of life. I would imagine a large part of this is due to power lines down, but I also imagine that inadequate natural gas backup utility plants are in the grid. 

Do you have any insider knowledge on this? 

My "pocket" concern for a long time has had to do with the California grid, where they are decommissioning NG utility plants at an awful rate. They are of course installing large lithium-ion battery terminals to handle storage. I am a big believer in the Black Swan event. In Texas it may be in the form of a polar vortex.

[NickW + 2,714]

5 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Coffee, you always give us great information about energy, particularly natural gas. 

If you have the time and inclination, I would appreciate more information. 

This will of course become known as the "Electricity Decade." But just today, the ERCOT grid faces a 10Gw shortage. Solar and wind have failed for the last three days in Texas. In even such a redundant grid as ERCOT, in a state producing more natural gas than one can imagine, there seems to be a humanitarian crisis today--with the threat of real, even catastrophic loss of life. I would imagine a large part of this is due to power lines down, but I also imagine that inadequate natural gas backup utility plants are in the grid. 

Do you have any insider knowledge on this? 

My "pocket" concern for a long time has had to do with the California grid, where they are decommissioning NG utility plants at an awful rate. They are of course installing large lithium-ion battery terminals to handle storage. I am a big believer in the Black Swan event. In Texas it may be in the form of a polar vortex.

How often do you get events like that in Southern Texas? I read it will be 10 degrees warmer tomorrow. 

Is it really worthwhile building energy systems that insure against 1 in 100 year short term events? 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

21 minutes ago, NickW said:

How often do you get events like that in Southern Texas? I read it will be 10 degrees warmer tomorrow. 

Is it really worthwhile building energy systems that insure against 1 in 100 year short term events? 

Nick, this is very rare, but I have this suspicion that ERCOT has gotten ahead of itself. The wind/solar market--selling power to Florida via Next-Era--has become huge. Texas has ample solar and there is a wind corridor right through west central Texas, which has allowed them to become the leader in the U.S. in renewable energy generation.

HOWEVER, here we are. I just checked with a friend, whose mother is very elderly and lives in an a very nice assisted living facility. The power is going on and off. She's bundled up but it's cold inside her suite and fairly miserable. I would suspect that in Texas there are close to a million folks in a similar situation. That grid is very sophisticated and they monitor it well, but today--just today--we're going to be damn lucky not to hear of hypothermic mortalities in such facilities. 

You're right, it's going to be much warmer tomorrow. But today, well, who knows? It just boggles the imagination that in a state producing more natural gas than they know what to do with, they are experiencing a 10 Gw deficit. And that President Biden is shutting down the Dakota Access Pipeline at a time when we're clearly not energy-independent. A massive grid failure--even for a day--underscores the fact that we are not energy-independent. Not where it counts most. 

[NickW + 2,714]

14 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Nick, this is very rare, but I have this suspicion that ERCOT has gotten ahead of itself. The wind/solar market--selling power to Florida via Next-Era--has become huge. Texas has ample solar and there is a wind corridor right through west central Texas, which has allowed them to become the leader in the U.S. in renewable energy generation.

HOWEVER, here we are. I just checked with a friend, whose mother is very elderly and lives in an a very nice assisted living facility. The power is going on and off. She's bundled up but it's cold inside her suite and fairly miserable. I would suspect that in Texas there are close to a million folks in a similar situation. That grid is very sophisticated and they monitor it well, but today--just today--we're going to be damn lucky not to hear of hypothermic mortalities in such facilities. 

You're right, it's going to be much warmer tomorrow. But today, well, who knows? It just boggles the imagination that in a state producing more natural gas than they know what to do with, they are experiencing a 10 Gw deficit. And that President Biden is shutting down the Dakota Access Pipeline at a time when we're clearly not energy-independent. A massive grid failure--even for a day--underscores the fact that we are not energy-independent. Not where it counts most. 

How well insulated is Texas housing? I hope its not like OZ - greenhouses with a tin shack roof. Insulation works both ways and keeps heat out in summer.  A well insulated house will keep warm-ish for a couple of days without any heating. Also you in hurricane alley there? If so I would have thought most people prepared for these type situations and have a propane stove  on hand and other emergency items (lighting etc) 

I read that part of this problem is gas infrastructure freezing up. Possibly a feature not expecting this type of weather that far south. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

23 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

We rely upon our leaders, our political/governmental authorities to act in the interests of our country with a strong inclination to do no harm in the process.

 

The fact that my last sentence is so obscenely unrealized is a shame to us all in this country.

We men of goodwill, worldwide, Mr. Tomasz, will continue to strive to kindle effective self education amongst our fellow global citizens  ... all the while remaining keenly aware that Bad Actors of all stripes -  whether  by design or through ignorance - are ever present to wreak mayhem as can be seen throughout all times and places in human history.

I liked seeing this.  "Men of goodwill".

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

I was without power (gas heat and electric) much of Sunday late night/early morning, and then again most of Monday until about 3 or 4pm.  It was 5 degrees F (-15C) at 7:30am when the power came on briefly this morning in North Texas. 

Texas Deploys National Guard As 'Grid Chaos' Leaves Millions Freezing In Darkness - 3.368 million Texans Without Power

(long article with graphs & images)

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/grid-chaos-2-million-texans-without-power-rolling-blackout-begin