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Tomasz

Is Russia as an ally of China really in the interest of the United States?

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(edited)

As far as I know, one of the assumptions of American geopolitics is that a new hegemon should not appear in Eurasia.
Taking into account the current state of affairs, in my opinion, the result of Western policy is that Russia has become China's junior partner lets say it clearly a vassal.
I am not saying that the fault is solely with the West. Russia is a country specific in many ways a little pathological one..
But the fact is, at least in the 90s, she was much more willing to cooperate with the West. Until the Georgian war, it reacted rather reactive to the actions of the West. In my opinion, it is worth listening to Putin's speech in Munich in 2007 because it is such a list of complaints on the part of Russia.
Of course, I know that Russia is a pathological country, but the result of Western policy is that for at least 10 years Russia has entered into a stronger and stronger relationship with China as a weaker partner in tandem.
It is, after all, a country of almost 150 million people with 17 million kilometers, the largest resource of raw materials in the world, modern military technologies that are still better than Chinese ones, yet a certain resource of civil technologies, including information technology, and what is worth emphasizing, and maybe not everyone knows about it with large resources well-educated people.
Maybe I am really stupid, but I don't understand the behavior of Western countries that generally force Russia to become increasingly dependent on China.
I do not blame only the West for this, because Russia is a very difficult partner, but I simply do not understand how it improves the geopolitical situation of the USA in the long term, especially since China is many times stronger than the USSR it ever was because it is much more powerful in terms of economy and population.
Someone will say that these situations can be easily reversed.
Note that, according to a 2019 Gallup poll, 29% of Russians have a positive opinion of the USA. 72% of respondents have a positive opinion of China. This is the biggest difference in the study.
I know, of course, that Russia is ruled by the Kremlin tops, not the sovereign, and secondly social feelings can be managed quickly and effectively.
I would just like to emphasize because I hear many times that when Putin is overthrown, the Russian society will choose a democracy and support the West. And I am reviewing various such studies of the Russian society and honestly it does not result from them in any way.
I realizes that if someone reads for example, the Western liberal press, he may think that the mood in Russia is generally pro-Western and pro-democratic.
However, if someone delves into the results of the research, even of a relatively independent Levada Institute he will find out that, especially after the Second Maidan, these moods are not pro-Western, especially pro-American, and in general the degree of anti-Western resentment over the last 30 years is definitely higher than in 1991 and it might be a suprise but this is best sign that  most Russians generally view the actions of the West as hostile to Russia.
 If you read the relevant research, many people may be surprised, but the Russians anno domini 2020 are definitely more anti-American than they were when the USSR collapsed in 1991.
There are even some Russian analyzes available, which show that within 10-15 years Russia's dependence on China will be so great that the freedom of maneuver and Russia's transition to the West camp will be very limited and even impossible
As I say, Russia is a pathological country, but is it really in the interest of even the USA at a time when China is its greatest rival?
Well, the only available explanation is unbridled greed. Sheer greed and pride that always comes first before the fall I will only mention the famous "too big to fail" and pumping public money into private banks. Unfortunately, the last one turns off the light.
After Putin, the West will have a "democratic leader " ala Shoygu or, worse, someone like General Lebed. Although it may sound strange, they may still miss Vladimir

Edited by Tomasz
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(edited)

1. Assumption of American geopolitics is that a new hegemon should not appear in Eurasia,as it is the only place where new hegemon can appear (China, India or Russia). But because new hegemon is large China 1.4 billion people, Russia 0.15 billion people cannot play pivotal role, cannot impact in any important way, how would China develop. Russia is just too small and too weak for this game. Russia is for China what Canada is for US. Without alliance with Canada United States would still have current position. In case of Russia and China it is nearly the same, the only difference is superior Russian military technology that China still needs.

Russian GDP is 1.7 trillion USD, about 12% of Chinese GDP that is 15 trillion USD (Again the same relation is between Canadian and US GDP).

Russian area is much larger than Chinese or US, but it is a weakness with relatively small Russian military budget and Russia needs China a lot in Central Asia.

Summary: Russia is too small and too weak a country to play any counterweight against China , and thus be useful for US.

2. Difficulty of approach. There is very limited way that United States can engage with Russia. There is an exclusive club of allied democracies and the rest of the world. And Russia is in the rest of the world. On top of that since annexation of Crimea Russia is a global outlaw with many sanctions. US co-operates with many vassal countries in Middle East and elsewhere, no problem. But always engagement is very limited, so any potential relation with Russia can be like with Saudi Arabia. It would be politically suicidal for any US politician to engage with Russia.

3. Lack of any meaningful US gains from any alliance with Russia. Russia is important cause it is an exporter of natural resources. No matter what, these resources would flow cause Russian economy needs budget  revenues.

Russia is too weak vs China so no gain in this area. Russian military needs export revenues, China is a very good client, and US is the strongest competitor for Russian military gear.

4. Russia is not an important part of global supply chains, not a beneficiary of globalization. It is a closed economy, closed society, not many people-people contacts. And at the end of the day it does not matter what Russian opinions are , it is Vladimir that decides. Opinion polls are important in democracies cause people have impact on government.

Edited by Marcin2
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Lets see attitude of Chinese

Quote

 

Neighbors don’t always make the best of friends but, faced with growing international tensions, China and Russia are being drawn closer together. It comes as Chinese citizens increasingly write off better relations with the US.

A new poll published by the widely read Global Times newspaper, which has close links to the ruling Chinese Communist Party, found that over half of the nearly 2,000 respondents viewed Russia as the country’s most important relationship.

There was a sharp reduction in the number of people saying that ties with the US had the biggest impact on China, dropping to only 47.5 percent, compared to 82.1 percent when the question was asked last year.

ALSO ON RT.COMBiden’s call for building anti-China blocs is like telling EU ‘cut off your nose to spite your face’, easier said than done

Diao Daming, an expert on US studies at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, said the results showed Chinese people are “seriously offended by the unilateral moves made by the US government to harm bilateral ties; but, on the other [hand], their favorable impression toward American society and culture has not been affected too much by some irresponsible moves made by US politicians.” 

At the same time, China’s official state news network Xinhua reported on Monday that the country’s premier, Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin had shared warm words over future partnerships earlier this week. According to the outlet, which is closely linked with Chinese decision makers, the two leaders resolved to “unswervingly develop the comprehensive strategic partnership” between their countries.

Beijing has become the most significant commercial partner for Moscow, and the country is the leading destination for the export of Russian commodities, and a source of more than $56 trillion in imports. Some Western commentators have previously argued that China, the world’s most populous country, would struggle to see Russia as an equal partner given its growing monopolization of world trade. However, shared political obstacles with the EU and the US appear to be playing a role in the two nations stepping towards closer and closer political ties.

 

 

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