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Jim Rickards: Brace for a Great Escape from the Dollar and a Flood of Money into Gold and Bitcoin

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Jim Rickards: Brace for a Great Escape from the Dollar and a Flood of Money into Gold and Bitcoin

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Harry Dent

In the late 1980s, Dent forecast that the Japanese economy, then the darling of the world, would soon enter a slowdown that would last more than a decade. In the early 1990s, he predicted that the DJIA would reach 10,000. Both of these predictions were met with much skepticism, and yet both eventually came to pass

The basis of Dent's investment thesis, spending wave theory, is that consumer spending related to the generational formation of families has a profound effect on the market value of investments such as financial securities, real estate, and gold. Dent's spending wave theory posits that young adults spend little within the greater economy, and spending increases while they rear children. It peaks as children leave home and then slows during the last 15 years of working life (48-63). According to Dent, the decreased spending patterns of the current generation of US baby boomers entering retirement will cause a pronounced downturn in the greater macroeconomy and an associated decline in the value of financial markets.

Harry Dent: Market Crash Coming in 2-3 Years; Economy ‘Already Dead’

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/12/03/harry-dent-market-crash-coming-in-2-3-years-economy-already-dead/

And another round of stimulus won't revive it, the "Contrarian's Contrarian" tells ThinkAdvisor.

Nearly a fifth of public companies are “zombies” propped up by debt, Harry Dent says.

With its “zombie” public companies and small-business failures, the U.S. economy is “dead,” and a second stimulus won’t revive it, Harry S. Dent Jr. argues in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.

“The Contrarian’s Contrarian,” as Dent is known, forecasts that the pandemic-afflicted U.S. economy, amid an enormous Federal Reserve-created bubble, won’t bottom until 2023.

“The crisis ahead of us is a big detox of the biggest financial drug stimulus in history,” he warns.

The stock market will bottom late in 2022 or early 2023, he predicts. It will be “the lowest stock market of our lifetime.”

Dent, 67, accurately called Japan’s 1989 economic collapse, the dot-com bust and the populist wave that delivered the presidency to Donald Trump. He uses propriety research and bases predictions mainly on demographics and trends....

Harry Dent: Stocks to crash 40% by April and won't rebound for decades, here's why (Pt. 1/2)

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(edited)

Lance Roberts out of Houston, Texas is pretty sharp.  I watch his YouTube occasionally and read some of his stuff.

This article is really good, but it is long.  The concept is worth understanding.

Why The Second Stimulus Won't Have Much Economic Impact

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-second-stimulus-wont-have-much-economic-impact

[[[[  LAST TWO SENTENCES OF ARTICLE...

Due to the debt, demographics, and monetary and fiscal policy failures, the long-term economic growth rate will run well below long-term trends.

Such will ensure the widening of the wealth gap, increases in welfare dependency, and capitalism giving way to socialism.

Edited by Tom Nolan
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(edited)

23 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

Harry Dent: Market Crash Coming in 2-3 Years; Economy ‘Already Dead’

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/12/03/harry-dent-market-crash-coming-in-2-3-years-economy-already-dead/

And another round of stimulus won't revive it, the "Contrarian's Contrarian" tells ThinkAdvisor.

Stock market started off probably

1. with kind intention of elder generations to share companies' profits with the public, mainly with the not so rich (In South East Asia for example). They let people purchased at very low price e.g. few cents per share and pay them dividends for their investments every quarter...........

2. offered to investors who would like to be partners with capital and get a return on their investments

However, things might have changed in the market........ The younger generations, mostly friends, relatives and distance or not so distance friends of the rich (family usually no need to do any of those to get money they need, hence not commonly involved), who earn easily with granted permission, found ways to skip the routine and skewed from the original purposes........ This video might depict what happens rather well........ Raph breaks the internet

The regulation is so weak that with some companies not earning a penny, stagnant sale, with huge debts, having stock prices sky rocketing........... for what is in question............

The latest concept "too big to fail" requesting bail out trend could be what mega projects world wide are heading to....... Bad example well copied............ (free and easy money for no show after all, some people would do it, no??...............)

People do not know what they are doing or copying is the key culprit (like shown in the video)...........  real estate market is a mess, banking system is a mess, financial market is a mess, economy is a mess, law institution is in much delaying mess, basic concepts are in mess etc............. Whatever can go wrong has gone wrong........ 

Yet, solutions could be obliviously easy............. Like minded of the righteous and kind gather, good things will happen.........  How soon?? ...................

Edited by specinho

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(edited)

On 12/24/2020 at 11:02 AM, Tom Nolan said:

Lance Roberts out of Houston, Texas is pretty sharp.  I watch his YouTube occasionally and read some of his stuff.

This article is really good, but it is long.  The concept is worth understanding.

Why The Second Stimulus Won't Have Much Economic Impact

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-second-stimulus-wont-have-much-economic-impact

[[[[  LAST TWO SENTENCES OF ARTICLE...

Due to the debt, demographics, and monetary and fiscal policy failures, the long-term economic growth rate will run well below long-term trends.

Such will ensure the widening of the wealth gap, increases in welfare dependency, and capitalism giving way to socialism.

Sadly people always think that they are the one winning in total (moving up) while others losing in total (moving down). Stock market is the great indicator for this behavior.

IMHO, I think that bit Harry Dent is missing. He didn't take into account the US socialism policies & high taxes that will make the recovery much tougher than in the past, the next US generation will not be able to spend as much as the previous and current generations which will affect world's consumption and the growing of South Asia, South East Asia or Africa. These all are currently in average income trap and wouldn't start from 0 or negative like China or Vietnam before (economics were weak and poor but not much debt back then and there were no form of financial system) unless these got into bankruptcy first, reform the political system or social hierarchy  and rebuild from scratch. Ironically they have very little burden of  existing welfare system.

Edited by SUZNV
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