Trump's Principal Legacy

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

One out of every thousand Americans have died from COVID-19 so far this year.  How does that compare with 12 other selected countries with greater than 20 million population? 

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

WSJ:  How South Korea Successfully Managed Coronavirus (9/25/20)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-south-korea-on-how-to-manage-covid-11601044329

Excerpt:

“South Korea appears to have cracked the code for managing the coronavirus. Its solution is straightforward, flexible and relatively easy to replicate. . . .As a result, South Korea never had to mandate a lockdown, so restaurants and business were able to stay open, cushioning the blow to the economy.”

End Excerpt.

The inside story of how Trump’s denial,
mismanagement and magical thinking
led to the pandemic’s dark winter

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/trump-covid-pandemic-dark-winter/?itid=hp-top-table-main

After their warnings had gone largely unheeded for months in the dormant West Wing, Deborah Birx, Anthony S. Fauci, Stephen Hahn and Robert Redfield together sounded new alarms, cautioning of a dark winter to come without dramatic action to slow community spread.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, among the many Trump aides who were infected with the virus this fall, was taken aback, according to three senior administration officials with knowledge of the discussions. He told the doctors he did not believe their troubling data assessment. And he accused them of outlining problems without prescribing solutions.

The doctors explained that the solutions were simple and had long been clear — among them, to leverage the power of the presidential bully pulpit to persuade all Americans to wear masks, especially the legions of Trump supporters refusing to do so, and to dramatically expand testing.

“It was something that we were almost repetitively saying whenever we would get into the Situation Room,” said Fauci, who directs the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “Whenever we got the opportunity to say, ‘This is really going to be a problem because the baseline of infections was really quite high to begin with, so you had a lot of community spread.’ ”

On Nov. 19, hours after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised against Thanksgiving travel, Vice President Pence, who chairs the coronavirus task force, agreed to hold a full news conference with some of the doctors — something they had not done since the summer. But much to the doctors’ dismay, Pence did not forcefully implore people to wear masks, nor did the administration take meaningful action on testing.

As for the president, he did not appear at all.

Trump went days without mentioning the pandemic other than to celebrate progress on vaccines. The president by then had abdicated his responsibility to manage the public health crisis and instead used his megaphone almost exclusively to spread misinformation in a failed attempt to overturn the results of the election he lost to President-elect Joe Biden.

“I think he’s just done with covid,” said one of Trump’s closest advisers who, like many others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss internal deliberations and operations. “I think he put it on a timetable and he’s done with covid. . . . It just exceeded the amount of time he gave it.”

Now, a month later, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States is reaching records daily. The nation’s death count is rising steadily as well, this past week surpassing 300,000 — a total that had seemed unfathomable earlier this year. The dark winter is here, hospitalizations risk breaching capacities, and health professionals predict it will get worse before it gets better.

My comments:

Let's assume that the Trump Administration chose to emulate South Korea's approach to the virus, and let's assume that they were successful in this regard.  In round numbers, and extrapolating current data,  this would probably imply that we would see a total cumulative COVID-19 death count of about 5,000 or so, through Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021.   

A recent study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which so far appears to be approximately accurate, suggests (as of 12/19/20) a most likely US total death COVID-19 count of about 421,000, as of Inauguration Day, 1/20/21:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Based on this Wikipedia entry, the total number of US combat deaths, since the Civil War is about 430,000:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

In other words, Trump’s decision not to follow the lead of countries like South Korea arguably may have caused the unnecessary deaths of Americans just through the end of his presidency that is approximately equal to the total number of American combat deaths in all conflicts since the Civil War.

Note that recently more than 1,000 current and former CDC officers signed an open letter expressing dismay at the nation’s public-health response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

And given Trump’s position and access to data, one could plausibly make a case that he is probably guilty of depraved indifference, and interesting enough, a former federal prosecutor agrees with me:

More Than 1,000 Current and Former CDC Officers Criticize U.S. Covid-19 Response

https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-000-current-and-former-cdc-officers-condemn-u-s-covid-19-response-11602884265

Excerpt:

More than 1,000 current and former officers of an elite disease-fighting program at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have signed an open letter expressing dismay at the nation’s public-health response to the Covid-19 pandemic and calling for the federal agency to play a more central role.

“The absence of national leadership on Covid-19 is unprecedented and dangerous,” said the letter, signed by current and former officers of the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service of outbreak investigators. “CDC should be at the forefront of a successful response to this global public health emergency.”

Signers included two former CDC directors: Jeffrey Koplan, who led the agency under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, and Tom Frieden, who served under President Barack Obama.

All of the signatories were writing to “express our concern about the ominous politicization and silencing of the nation’s health protection agency” during the current pandemic, said their letter, which was published Friday in the Epidemiology Monitor, a newsletter for epidemiologists.

End Excerpt.

Depraved Indifference Law and Legal Definition

https://definitions.uslegal.com/d/depraved-indifference/

Excerpt:

“The crime (depraved indifference) differs from intentional murder in that it results not from a specific, conscious intent to cause death, but from an indifference to or disregard of the risks attending defendant’s conduct.”

End Excerpt.

Former federal prosecutor: Trump admitted to '2nd degree murder' in Woodward interview

https://news.yahoo.com/former-federal-prosecutor-trump-admitted-190200145.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=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&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMdckgbmlYsXWHn-gmhjHbdB7WTOmF1itUapXFSdQCBg5kZUZxeKuDs0kZ8tsyx0347-ToN_oJ0lxY0gGTvzc1zvm1MogNOX-RTuNPxGJNWKVFhJYNyl3Y_f_uF95Dv7fLjM2MAnbl9x6TR71xLDjYUi1r9RfVgijAWDn-t6rRBv

Excerpt:

"There are only two elements for second-degree murder. The first is you caused the death of another," Kirschner said Thursday. That factor was fulfilled because Trump "was lying to the American people about the danger this virus posed," and now 190,000 people are dead, Kirschner said. "The second element is the intent element," which would "get tricky if we didn't have Trump's incriminating admissions," he continued. But "in my opinion as a career prosecutor," Trump admitted to "conscious disregard" of the risk his coronavirus downplay created, thus admitting to "second-degree murder" that he "must be held accountable" for, Kirschner finished.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

33 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

WSJ:  How South Korea Successfully Managed Coronavirus (9/25/20)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-south-korea-on-how-to-manage-covid-11601044329

Excerpt:

“South Korea appears to have cracked the code for managing the coronavirus. Its solution is straightforward, flexible and relatively easy to replicate. . . .As a result, South Korea never had to mandate a lockdown, so restaurants and business were able to stay open, cushioning the blow to the economy.”

End Excerpt.

The inside story of how Trump’s denial,
mismanagement and magical thinking
led to the pandemic’s dark winter

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/trump-covid-pandemic-dark-winter/?itid=hp-top-table-main

After their warnings had gone largely unheeded for months in the dormant West Wing, Deborah Birx, Anthony S. Fauci, Stephen Hahn and Robert Redfield together sounded new alarms, cautioning of a dark winter to come without dramatic action to slow community spread.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, among the many Trump aides who were infected with the virus this fall, was taken aback, according to three senior administration officials with knowledge of the discussions. He told the doctors he did not believe their troubling data assessment. And he accused them of outlining problems without prescribing solutions.

The doctors explained that the solutions were simple and had long been clear — among them, to leverage the power of the presidential bully pulpit to persuade all Americans to wear masks, especially the legions of Trump supporters refusing to do so, and to dramatically expand testing.

“It was something that we were almost repetitively saying whenever we would get into the Situation Room,” said Fauci, who directs the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “Whenever we got the opportunity to say, ‘This is really going to be a problem because the baseline of infections was really quite high to begin with, so you had a lot of community spread.’ ”

On Nov. 19, hours after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised against Thanksgiving travel, Vice President Pence, who chairs the coronavirus task force, agreed to hold a full news conference with some of the doctors — something they had not done since the summer. But much to the doctors’ dismay, Pence did not forcefully implore people to wear masks, nor did the administration take meaningful action on testing.

As for the president, he did not appear at all.

Trump went days without mentioning the pandemic other than to celebrate progress on vaccines. The president by then had abdicated his responsibility to manage the public health crisis and instead used his megaphone almost exclusively to spread misinformation in a failed attempt to overturn the results of the election he lost to President-elect Joe Biden.

“I think he’s just done with covid,” said one of Trump’s closest advisers who, like many others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss internal deliberations and operations. “I think he put it on a timetable and he’s done with covid. . . . It just exceeded the amount of time he gave it.”

Now, a month later, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States is reaching records daily. The nation’s death count is rising steadily as well, this past week surpassing 300,000 — a total that had seemed unfathomable earlier this year. The dark winter is here, hospitalizations risk breaching capacities, and health professionals predict it will get worse before it gets better.

My comments:

Let's assume that the Trump Administration chose to emulate South Korea's approach to the virus, and let's assume that they were successful in this regard.  In round numbers, and extrapolating current data,  this would probably imply that we would see a total cumulative COVID-19 death count of about 5,000 or so, through Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021.   

A recent study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which so far appears to be approximately accurate, suggests (as of 12/19/20) a most likely US total death COVID-19 count of about 421,000, as of Inauguration Day, 1/20/21:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Based on this Wikipedia entry, the total number of US combat deaths, since the Civil War is about 430,000:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

In other words, Trump’s decision not to follow the lead of countries like South Korea arguably may have caused the unnecessary deaths of Americans just through the end of his presidency that is approximately equal to the total number of American combat deaths in all conflicts since the Civil War.

Note that recently more than 1,000 current and former CDC officers signed an open letter expressing dismay at the nation’s public-health response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

And given Trump’s position and access to data, one could plausibly make a case that he is probably guilty of depraved indifference, and interesting enough, a former federal prosecutor agrees with me:

More Than 1,000 Current and Former CDC Officers Criticize U.S. Covid-19 Response

https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-000-current-and-former-cdc-officers-condemn-u-s-covid-19-response-11602884265

Excerpt:

More than 1,000 current and former officers of an elite disease-fighting program at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have signed an open letter expressing dismay at the nation’s public-health response to the Covid-19 pandemic and calling for the federal agency to play a more central role.

“The absence of national leadership on Covid-19 is unprecedented and dangerous,” said the letter, signed by current and former officers of the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service of outbreak investigators. “CDC should be at the forefront of a successful response to this global public health emergency.”

Signers included two former CDC directors: Jeffrey Koplan, who led the agency under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, and Tom Frieden, who served under President Barack Obama.

All of the signatories were writing to “express our concern about the ominous politicization and silencing of the nation’s health protection agency” during the current pandemic, said their letter, which was published Friday in the Epidemiology Monitor, a newsletter for epidemiologists.

End Excerpt.

Depraved Indifference Law and Legal Definition

https://definitions.uslegal.com/d/depraved-indifference/

Excerpt:

“The crime (depraved indifference) differs from intentional murder in that it results not from a specific, conscious intent to cause death, but from an indifference to or disregard of the risks attending defendant’s conduct.”

End Excerpt.

Former federal prosecutor: Trump admitted to '2nd degree murder' in Woodward interview

https://news.yahoo.com/former-federal-prosecutor-trump-admitted-190200145.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=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&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMdckgbmlYsXWHn-gmhjHbdB7WTOmF1itUapXFSdQCBg5kZUZxeKuDs0kZ8tsyx0347-ToN_oJ0lxY0gGTvzc1zvm1MogNOX-RTuNPxGJNWKVFhJYNyl3Y_f_uF95Dv7fLjM2MAnbl9x6TR71xLDjYUi1r9RfVgijAWDn-t6rRBv

Excerpt:

"There are only two elements for second-degree murder. The first is you caused the death of another," Kirschner said Thursday. That factor was fulfilled because Trump "was lying to the American people about the danger this virus posed," and now 190,000 people are dead, Kirschner said. "The second element is the intent element," which would "get tricky if we didn't have Trump's incriminating admissions," he continued. But "in my opinion as a career prosecutor," Trump admitted to "conscious disregard" of the risk his coronavirus downplay created, thus admitting to "second-degree murder" that he "must be held accountable" for, Kirschner finished.

It is commentary of this nature that brings one to a singular conclusion...Occam's Razor.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

35 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

The inside story of how Trump’s denial,
mismanagement and magical thinking
led to the pandemic’s dark winter

Tell you what, Jeffrey. If you'll go to S. Korea and establish citizenship, stop posting all this anti-American horse shit on an oil and gas forum, I'll pay for your ticket and all the little umbrella drinks you wish on the voyage.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

California has 613 deaths / mil pop;  Florida has 988 deaths / mil pop.

For the trump fans who are weak at logic 613 < 988.

Keep telling us trump how Florida is doing better.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Edited December 27, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

7 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

California has 613 deaths / mil pop;  Florida has 988 deaths / mil pop.

For the trump fans who are weak at logic 613 < 988.

Keep telling us trump how Florida is doing better.

An indigent or illegal goes into an ER with a non-Covid condition and dies, the hospital takes about a $20,000 hickey. 

Same person goes in with Covid, the hospital gets paid $13,000. If placed on a ventilator--even for a minute--goes up to $33,000.

Hospitals all over have had to pause elective surgeries. They are in danger of going bankrupt. 

Truth: No one really knows what the statistics are. Deaths, sure, but of what? About all that can be said with surety is that there is a lot of dying occurring. It seems to be occurring more where Covid is surging. California is experiencing a major surge--no one knows why. It's pretty hard to blame it on Trump, as California has marched to its own drummer: Governor Gavin Newsom. He has ordered the strictest lockdown in the nation. May be that lockdowns don't work well, that perhaps it's better to tell people how to protect themselves and others and trust them to do the best they can. I'm sorry this is happening to California. 

The human sprit in a democracy rebells against mandates, especially being allowed to walk in the sunshine on a beach, or eat out in the open air. People can stand solitary confinement only so long, and then they crack. Businesses can shut down only so long before they go bankrupt. There are many ways to die--death by virus is really quite a small cause in the general scheme of the universe. 

I am no Trump apologist, but I've said many times: the man saved tens of thousands of lives by issuing a travel ban on people coming in from mainland China as early as January 10, at which point he was called a xenophobe. On the very day that he did this, Dr. Fauci was urging the American public to refrain from wearing a mask. Then Mr. Trump got all the major vaccine company CEO's together and told them the U.S. government would be writing them a blank check--get us a vaccine. They called it Operation Warp Speed. 

Let me ask you, as a math wizard, which person do you honestly believe saved more lives? Dr. Fauci who at the beginning of the outbreak urged on national TV no mask, or President Trump what banned infected people from coming in from China and got a vaccine built in six months? Take your time: it's a theoretical question. The only reason I'm asking it is because if I read the writing of one more idiot blaming Mr. Trump for all these deaths, with absolutely no attention to facts, and then consider the fact that all the presstitutes censored the news in order to get him overthrown, I'll throw up. 

You would actually teach yourself discipline if you learned to think on your own, to not just blast out these little one-liners and run off. We're talking about life and death, right and wrong. Just as there has been a lot of dying, there has been incredible societal misbehavior. To use censorship in order to push a man out of the presidency--even one as brash as Mr. Trump--is inexcusable and smacks of the beginning of socialism. Add in violence and you're at Bolshevism, complete with its agitprop. Are you quite sure you wish to be a part of that?

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

39 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Let me ask you, as a math wizard, which person do you honestly believe saved more lives? Dr. Fauci who at the beginning of the outbreak urged on national TV no mask, or President Trump what banned infected people from coming in from China and got a vaccine built in six months?

 

Both of the people mentioned were poor mouthpieces of the actual science.  If trump saved lives early he lost lives later.

I actually applaud trump for funding vaccine research but the vaccine is far from his accomplishment as big pharma is in no need of handouts.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Many pharma factories are still pumping out your favourite drugs. Caffeine, alcohol, ibuprofen, and Viagra.  

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

20 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Tell you what, Jeffrey. If you'll go to S. Korea and establish citizenship, stop posting all this anti-American horse shit on an oil and gas forum, I'll pay for your ticket and all the little umbrella drinks you wish on the voyage.

I suspect that Germans in the 1930's who told the truth about Hitler were similarly accused of being anti-German. 

And as Michael Cohen noted, Trump is a proponent of the "Big Lie," as described by Joseph Goebbels:

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

Edited December 28, 2020 by Jeffrey Brown

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

13 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

 . . . if I read the writing of one more idiot blaming Mr. Trump for all these deaths, with absolutely no attention to facts, and then consider the fact that all the presstitutes censored the news in order to get him overthrown, I'll throw up. 

 

Unfortunately for the Trump Kool-Air drinkers, facts are stubborn things, and Trump is on tape admitting to Wooward that he deliberately downplayed the threat posed by the virus, and as a career former federal prosecutor noted, "In my opinion as a career prosecutor," Trump admitted to "conscious disregard" of the risk his coronavirus downplay created, thus admitting to "second-degree murder" that he "must be held accountable" for, Kirschner finished."

In any case, as Ayn Rand reportedly said,"We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality," and unfortunately for Americans, we are experiencing the consequences of Trump (publicly) evading reality, while in private acknowledging how serious the pandemic was. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Jeffrey Brown

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Personally, instead of comparing the number of deaths from coronavirus, which is very difficult to compare between countries due to methodological differences, I propose to compare excess deaths.

In this classification, as I recently looked at, the US had 330,000 excess deaths this year and compared to the total population it looks much better on a global scale than in the classification of COVID-19 deaths alone.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/24/fact-check-2020-more-deadly-than-recent-years-u-s/3927190001/

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

 

So if you compare the number of excess deaths, of course the USA is still doing rather poorly on a global scale, but it does not differ much from other large countries such as Russia, Great Britain, Brazil or France.

If someone would like to compare it with Chinese data, unfortunately we would have to  get real Chinese data first. Because here all the advantages and disadvantages of China come out.

On the one hand, it is known that China has a very efficient state administration based not on the principle of democratic election but meritocracy under the one-government system.

On the other hand, it is known that already at the local level, the data is falsified to prove themselves to regional and national authorities.

In my opinion the simplest explanation for a pandemic is like in case of the Chernobyl disaster  local authorities in Wuhan lied to the central government that the situation is under control until it gets totally out of control.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I will give you one example of how America is dealing with the coronavirus in some cases.

Among US veterans (with semi-private healthcare), the death rate among patients taking aspirin was almost 50% lower than among non-users.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.13.20248147v1

[Kirk + 12]

19 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Tell you what, Jeffrey. If you'll go to S. Korea and establish citizenship, stop posting all this anti-American horse shit on an oil and gas forum, I'll pay for your ticket and all the little umbrella drinks you wish on the voyage.

You’re right, Trump is anti-American 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

1 hour ago, Kirk said:

You’re right, Trump is anti-American 

Since you make this statement of anti American, I ask you. What is your understanding of being a American? 

Specifically your depth of understanding what it is to be a American. Google will be of no aid that I can assure you.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well Trump policy was to contain China economically

According to some newest  estimates China will have bigger total nominal  GDP than USA in 2028 or 2029 - 5 year earlier then previously predicted.

 Ironically, Trump’s trade war & Covid response only speed that process up

Quote

 

A recent study by a Britishthink tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), states that China will surpass the US to become the world’s largest economy by 2028. 

The report, not the only one of its kind making this forecast, had revised its projection forwards by five years, attributing the Covid-19 pandemic as a gamechanger which will take its toll on US growth in the long term. 

This comes amid Donal Trump’s attempt to solidify an aggressive legacy against Beijing, having sought to forcefully contain its rise and sustain American primacy, applying punitive measures in trade and technology.

However, Trump’s efforts might just be too little, too late. Whilst China is choosing to avoid being complacent, with a Global Times editorial seeking to play down the significance of the CEBR report, there seems to be little question it will reach this landmark. China is expected to achieve a mammoth growth of 8.2 percent next year on top of an already positive GDP tier this year, whilst the US and many western countries recover from severe slumps. If anything, Trump has ultimately contributed to this shift rather than having had any meaningful success in trying to stop it. The President’s forfeiting of the Covid-19 pandemic will pose lasting damage to America, and this might explain the hyper aggression towards China that has dictated US foreign policy over the past few months.

In all its contemporary history, the US had not yet faced an adversary that was capable of outclassing it in terms of economic and military capabilities. The story of America’s rise throughout the 19th and 20th centuries has seen them defeat and outlast a number of rivals, including a once more dominant Mexico, the German Empire and later Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, the Empire of Japan and, of course, the European colonial empires of France and Britain. 

Indeed, since the 1920s the US has stood as the world’s largest economy and by extension, military power. Despite the flames of American McCarthyism spreading fear, at an economic level the US and the USSR didn’t really compete in the same league during the Cold War: the Soviet Union produced barely half of America’s Gross Domestic Product at its finale in 1991. 

However, the rise of China stands as a gamechanger, as it’s the first country in history that is set to not only outgrow the US but, according to the CEBR report, to quickly leave them behind, too. Whilst the average per-capita income in China still lags well behind that of the US, the prospect of it being larger is daunting enough and, not surprisingly, has set off the alarm bells in Washington. 

The Donald Trump administration transformed America’s foreign policy from cooperation to confrontation against Beijing, seeking to attack it on a number of fronts including trade, technology and investment. Yet, as his tenure comes to an end, it appears ultimately that China is closer to its goal of overtaking the US economy, than further away from it. How so?

The answer is Covid-19. The global pandemic has been an explosive turning point which has decimated the economies of western countries whilst China itself has come out intact, much to the resentment of many. But, rather than scapegoating Beijing for the virus, it is Trump’s own response to this crisis that has served as a self-fulfilling prophecy, with the President having long-since given up on trying to combat the virus, allowing the situation to spiral out of control. Although vaccinations have started, America is not out of the woods yet, with over 200,000 positive cases racking up every day and over 330,000 people now dead. The impact on the American economy subsequently has been harrowing, with renewed state lockdowns and curfews sapping away the recovery. As the CEBR report notes, US growth in the coming years will simply be no match for China’s.

Not surprisingly, this scenario is likely the logic which has driven the administration’s decision to pursue a hyper-aggressive, Cold War-like approach to Beijing, and to force through as many measures against it as possible before it leaves office, all geared at attempting to lockstep American hegemony. These tactics are not an affirmation of victory or confidence, but a sense of and urgency concerning a contest it is not guaranteed to win. Yet, there is a feeling of too little, too late. US actions aside, with China being the only stable market in the world in 2020, inbound foreign investment is at record levels; thus, despite all the fiery rhetoric, they are already swimming against a shifting tide.

In this case, Trump himself departs as a disruptive influence to US-China ties, but nonetheless a factor which has ultimately contributed to the shift in the balance of power in Beijing’s favour, then to their detriment. 

2020 will be looked-back-on in history books as one of those crucial years which set the stage for everything to change, in the same way 1914, 1939, 1945 and 1991 did, with the Covid-19 pandemic not only imposing drastic changes in how the world lives, but also shifting geopolitical tectonics from East to West. Whilst a lot can change in eight years, it is difficult to imagine China not reaching such a goal. Time isn’t on America’s side.

 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

38 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Time isn’t on America’s side.

But lots of other things are. Most people seem to have forgotten that the title of this forum is Oilprice.com. It is a type as you think place to consider the supply-demand ratio, conundrums, and most of all, the future of oil and gas and how that future is affected by new advances. 

Well, consider these unexpected possibilities: blockades on the Baltic Sea, oil fields attacked in the Persian Gulf, tankers targeted all the way from Hormuz to Osaka. Very soon the world will face global energy shortages unheard of in the modern age. In the least involved versions of the Twilight and Gulf Wars, and assuming no Tanker War, that's still 14mboed that goes offline.

The above paragraph isn't from me, but from The Absent Superpower, by Peter Zeihan. 

China is pretty much at the end of the global oil supply chain, no matter how you look at it. There has been a net lack of over a trillion dollars of investment in the global hunt for replacement fossil fuels over the last half decade. Granted, EV's and solar/wind energy are coming on strong, but certainly not nearly fast enough to fill the void. 

The FF haters can spout all the garbage they want, but the world still runs on FF. As EV's take over more and more share, there will be incredible demand for electricity. In fact, I predict that the 20's will be the Decade of Electricity. Most of that for the next five years will come from natural gas. After that, we'll see. 

Not only that but Taiwan isn't exactly fond of China right now. No Taiwan Semiconductor, no 5G. Taiwan Semi is putting a new factory not in Beijing but in . . . Phoenix. They are going to be the leaders for quite some time. 

America is not going to become supplanted by China. Geopolitics always rule. And theirs isn't so hot.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I just want to point out that taking into account excess deaths the US fares much better than taking under consideration only the deaths from COVID.

In the USA, deaths due to a pandemic account for about 90% of the increased number of deaths.

 In many countries situation  is quite different in this respect, and the number of COVID  deaths due to methodological differences cannot be really compared between countries.

Russia will likely have close to 300,000 excess deaths in 2020. This is 40~50% worse than in the US in per capita terms, so it will compete with UK France Spain, Balkans, & other ex-USSR countries for worst #coronavirus outcome in Europe.

And lets rethink how many people really died of COVID-19?

Actually officialy we have about 1.8M Corona official deaths in 2020.

But undercount is 50% even  in heavily First World-biased sample, is of course higher in Third World statistical black holes.

So that's probably rather ~5-7M than 2 M Corona deaths worldwide (~10% of all global deaths in 2020).

Perhaps it will be about  10M total once vaccines stamp it out globally by 2022-23.

Thats probably real number how many people this pandemy really killed in 2020.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Tomasz

[dukeNukem + 80]

On 12/29/2020 at 4:54 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

 

America is not going to become supplanted by China. Geopolitics always rule. And theirs isn't so hot.

We shall see.....However I tend to believe this is just short-sighted self-confident American view

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 12/28/2020 at 6:08 PM, Tomasz said:

I just want to point out that taking into account excess deaths the US fares much better than taking under consideration only the deaths from COVID.

In the USA, deaths due to a pandemic account for about 90% of the increased number of deaths.

 In many countries situation  is quite different in this respect, and the number of COVID  deaths due to methodological differences cannot be really compared between countries.

Russia will likely have close to 300,000 excess deaths in 2020. This is 40~50% worse than in the US in per capita terms, so it will compete with UK France Spain, Balkans, & other ex-USSR countries for worst #coronavirus outcome in Europe.

And lets rethink how many people really died of COVID-19?

Actually officialy we have about 1.8M Corona official deaths in 2020.

But undercount is 50% even  in heavily First World-biased sample, is of course higher in Third World statistical black holes.

So that's probably rather ~5-7M than 2 M Corona deaths worldwide (~10% of all global deaths in 2020).

Perhaps it will be about  10M total once vaccines stamp it out globally by 2022-23.

Thats probably real number how many people this pandemy really killed in 2020.

According to that Canada had essentially no excess deaths.  Go us.

 

 

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 12/29/2020 at 2:58 AM, Tomasz said:

Well Trump policy was to contain China economically

According to some newest  estimates China will have bigger total nominal  GDP than USA in 2028 or 2029 - 5 year earlier then previously predicted.

 Ironically, Trump’s trade war & Covid response only speed that process up

 

Ha Ha, time might not be on America's side, but I am. Wait until the price of oil cracks $70 in about 6-8 months time. Then the US shale industry will come roaring back to life and China will be squeezed. Trump's trade war and covid response had nothing to do with US/China relative GDP. The US went into financial crisis Part 2 in November 2019, several months before covid. Sure, Covid made things worse, compressed the timescale and increased the severity, but as Churchill would say: "You should never waste a good crisis". Now that both sides of politics are awake to the Chinese threat, China will struggle. But the thing to remember is that the entire global political landscape has changed. Brexit has finally arrived, NATO is dissolving, and the Anglosphere is making closer alliances with Japan and India, who will overtake China as the worlds largest economy within 20 years. I would back US, UK, Japan, India alliance over EU, China, Russia alliance any day. The former grouping are all genuine democracies, whilst the latter are either socialist or communist. Once the Anglo+ block close their doors to China, their party will stop and so will that of the EU. Russia will be the big winner in that group. The US, UK, Japan, India and associates such as Australia, Canada, Vietnam, Thailand etc, all have a lot to gain from one another. For a very long time. None of us really need China for much longer.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 12/27/2020 at 11:19 AM, Jeffrey Brown said:

One out of every thousand Americans have died from COVID-19 so far this year.  How does that compare with 12 other selected countries with greater than 20 million population? 

What does that have to do with President Trump? Virtually nothing. The establishment opposed hydroxychloroquine. That was his idea and would have helped in a great way. Our medical leadership failed, not President Trump. 

The Latest News and Info on COVID 19

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MXY8T0j7k0oUBsHW4BfjJM__DRIyzqrDf_FSlV4hHpw/edit

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

What does that have to do with President Trump? Virtually nothing. The establishment opposed hydroxychloroquine. That was his idea and would have helped in a great way. Our medical leadership failed, not President Trump. 

The Latest News and Info on COVID 19

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MXY8T0j7k0oUBsHW4BfjJM__DRIyzqrDf_FSlV4hHpw/edit

 

Trump created a distrustful environment by flip-flopping on covid frequently.  He downplayed the severity numerous times. Still calls it china flu.

Look at the data.  Canada has 15,715 deaths at a rate of 415/ million pop.  The USA is 358,682 deaths at a rate of 1080/ million pop and the disparity just grows daily.

Trump didn't use HCQ himself when he caught covid, and it was temporarily approved by the "establishment." so stop beating that long-dead horse.

 

How are your graphs looking? Still believe people like 0R0 despite being way, way off?

Edited January 3, 2021 by Enthalpic

[ronwagn + 6,290]

My estimate of total deaths for the year was off by 50%. That is still better than the 500 to 1,000 percent that were forecast by Fauci and his ilk. 

Possible reasons for Canada doing well are more difuse population and less minority populations. What do you attribute it to?

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

13 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

 

Possible reasons for Canada doing well are more diffuse population and less minority populations. What do you attribute it to?

 

Both those factors are likely at play.   Our hot spots tend to be hundreds of Km apart and we have far fewer households with large numbers of residents, which is more commons among minorities and the economically disadvantaged.

Other possibilities are that we have generally better access to healthcare, and were not undergoing an turbulent election during covid.  The politicians unfortunately used covid as a tool to divide the people and energize their bases. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Enthalpic

[Tomasz + 1,608]

 

Quote

 

Padded forty-fifth  How 2020 elevated and then destroyed Donald Trump "Kommersant" from December 30, 2020, 21:02 

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4637600

One of the most striking and dramatic stories of 2020 was the rise and fall of the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, the first long-term head of the White House to serve only one, not two terms. Under his leadership, the country began the year on the rise, with excellent economic performance and a stable situation, and ended it amid a coronavirus disaster, a sagging economy, large-scale protests and a loud scandal after the elections.

"The American Adventure Is Just Beginning!" - With such an enthusiastic appeal, US President Donald Trump addresses the nation during his annual State of the Union speech. It's February 4, 2020 . Donald Trump speaks in the House of Representatives Hall in Congress - the same hall where he was impeached just over a month ago. He is sure that his fellow party members in the Senate will acquit him the very next day, and he is the winner again. It is in this capacity that he addresses the nation.

“Three years ago, we started America's great comeback. Today I stand before you to share the great results. The number of jobs is increasing, incomes are growing, poverty and crime are decreasing, and confidence in the future is growing. Our country is flourishing and respected again. America's enemies are fleeing, its wealth is growing, and its future is dazzlingly bright, ”the president said. He promises to cover all patriots of America in a fatherly way with his caring hand: the poor, the workers and the soldiers. The leader of the nation reports: the number of illegal immigrants is decreasing, the power of the army is strengthening, a wall on the border with Mexico is being built, and socialism is being resolutely rebuffed.

Our nation is our canvas, our country is our masterpiece. We look into tomorrow and see endless frontiers waiting for their explorer. Our best discoveries are not yet known. Our most exciting stories have yet to be told.

Our greatest journeys have yet to be completed. The American era, the American epic, the American adventure - it's all just beginning. Our spirit is still young, the sun is just rising, but God's grace is still descending. My dear Americans, the best is yet to come! Thank you! God save you, and God save America! " - the president concludes the speech. Then the leader of the Democrats, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, in front of millions of people, will tear his copy of the President's speech, but this will not add political points to her.

The country is indeed thriving: unemployment is at its lowest in half a century, stock indexes are posting record after record, and satisfaction with the overall situation is over 40%: the highest level since 2005. Then America still really does not know anything about the new disease that has appeared in China. Nobody heard the name of George Floyd either.

By that time, the Democrats were disunited: in their camp there was a battle between ideologically moderate party functionaries (whose leader was Joe Biden) and a new radical wing that achieved no less socialist transformations: universal health insurance, free higher education and higher taxes on the rich. Its leader is Bernie Sanders, Senator from Vermont and a veteran of the US socialist movement. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg also claims to win. But in this situation, polls are increasingly predicting a victory for Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, life goes on as usual: by the end of February it becomes impossible to ignore the coronavirus - the disease is spreading around the world more and more rapidly.

At the first press conference dedicated to the situation, Mr. Trump assures his compatriots: there are only 60 infected people in the country, there are no deaths, the situation is under control - and urges them to wash their hands more often, and asks players in the stock markets to stay calm. “The threat to the American people remains low. We have the best experts in the world, ”sums up Donald Trump. And he refers to studies by Johns Hopkins University, from which it follows: of all countries in the world, it is the United States that is best prepared for a global epidemic.

But in March, the situation began to deteriorate rapidly. By the middle of the month, several dozen people die, the epidemic is slowly but surely spreading throughout the country, WHO declares it a pandemic. Donald Trump closes the entry to the United States for travelers from Europe and makes a fateful decision: no mandatory measures have been announced at the federal level, only recommendations. Decisions in each case are left to the mercy of the states. In the Democratic debate, the epidemic becomes the most important topic - in the intraparty race, meanwhile, Joe Biden actually wins.

By the end of March and at the beginning of April , several thousand people have already died, and the head of state admits the gravity of the situation. He recites his famous "We will turn heaven and earth to protect our great American people," heralding the toughest weeks of the battle against the coronavirus. Congress, meanwhile, approves the first package of aid to the economy, including payments of $ 1.2 thousand to each American.

At the same time, a “culturally painful” split in society takes shape: if the Democrats are demonstratively wearing masks, rubbing their hands with antiseptic and calling to save lives, the Republicans ignore the masks and demand to save the economy.

The epidemic is raging with might and main: mobile morgues appear on the streets of New York, the USNS Comfort medical ship is approaching the city by water. By the end of the month, 50,000 people have died, but more than ten of the least affected states - in particular, Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma - are returning to their usual lives, allowing the opening of bars and beauty salons. The governors believe that the infection will remain in large urban centers on the east and west coasts (like the states of New York and California) and will not be affected. Donald Trump does not interfere: he fears an economic downturn, on which his political career directly depends. Doctors urge not to rush to the discovery, but Mr Trump does not listen to them.

At the end of May, a new attack falls on the country: in the city of Minneapolis, a policeman, detaining an African American George Floyd, stands for too long with a knee on his neck - a man dies. In the city, protests and pogroms break out, exacerbating the already difficult epidemiological situation. Donald Trump is irreconcilable: he criticizes local authorities for inaction, demands that the rioters be punished, and threatens to bring in US National Guard forces. Pogroms are taking place in many large cities.

At this time, against the backdrop of a worsening epidemiological situation, Donald Trump is shaping a new electoral course, enclosed in two symbolic words: "law and order." He is clearly on the side of the police and stigmatizes the rioters.

In early June , one of the most notable episodes takes place: the police disperse the crowd with tear gas near the White House so that Donald Trump can be photographed with a Bible in his hands in one of the local churches: the democratic press smashes him for insensitivity.

By July, the coronavirus wins a decisive victory in the battle for the United States: the newly opened states that were "slightly affected by the coronavirus" are facing an explosive increase in the incidence. People ignore recommendations, go to beaches, parks, cafes and bars. The authorities are urgently trying to return the restrictive measures, but the situation can no longer be saved - the number of people infected every day exceeds 50 thousand, hospitals are overcrowded, protective equipment is often lacking, as well as tests for coronavirus. Riots are not going anywhere either: in Seattle, police are cleaning out CHAZ, a de facto "autonomous zone" sanctioned by the local authorities in one of the city blocks.

By August, due to restrictive measures, the situation with COVID-19 will temporarily stabilize: the number of daily infections drops to less than 50 thousand. Congresses of the Republican and Democratic parties are held: Donald Trump and Joe Biden are nominated for presidency, respectively. Polls after months of epidemic, pogroms and economic turmoil predict a victory for Mr. Biden, and Mr. Trump proposes to postpone the elections due to the postal voting procedure approved in many states. He calls them unfair with no evidence - since then, the thesis about this (without concrete evidence) will be adopted and actively applied until the end of the year.

The political struggle is escalating, debates of candidates for the main post in the country begin. Taking advantage of the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, extremely popular in youth liberal circles, Donald Trump is nominating his protege, the Conservative Amy Connie Barrett, to this post. In early October , Donald Trump himself becomes infected with the coronavirus and in a few days he is cured with the help of a "cocktail of drugs", including a drug based on antibodies. Finally, on November 3, elections are held in the country - amid a raging epidemic.

During the voting, a "red mirage" happens: since Republicans are skeptical of the virus and go to the polls in person, and do not massively vote by mail, like their opponents, at first it seems that it is Donald Trump who wins, but then Joe Biden's advantage is recorded during the counting ...

Donald Trump himself and his associates disagree with the result: dozens of lawsuits have been filed with the courts. But during the meetings, Donald Trump's representatives under oath refuse to talk about fraud or fraud, and they also do not present evidence. The plaintiffs' main argument is that voting by mail is not democratic and does not provide transparency, the results should be reversed.

 

The main argument of the court: the states decide how they vote, and the procedure should be challenged not when your candidate lost, but when it was accepted. In addition, canceling votes by mail nullifies millions of ordinary Americans' votes. For such an exceptional and unprecedented step, serious evidence of the violations committed is required, but Donald Trump's associates present practically nothing. Claims "pour in" one after another. Finally, on December 14, the electors proclaim the will of the people: Joe Biden becomes the 46th President of the United States.

Donald Trump, starting with great chances for a second term, ended it with a losing "lame duck" with a terrible epidemic (200-250 thousand people fall ill in the United States a day, 3-3.5 thousand die each day) and a significantly sagging economy ( The IMF predicts a decline in the country's GDP by 4.6% for the year).

The outgoing head of the White House, however, has retained a powerful political movement: by 2020, the Republican Party is firmly rallied around him, and many Republican voters believe that it was he who won the election, despite the lack of evidence of widespread fraud and fraud.

Republican politicians also depend on his support: with one message on Twitter, he could end their political career. Be that as it may, but 2020 is leaving, followed by Donald Trump - at least from the presidency, but not from American politics. And from the White House to the Donald Trump Hotel in Washington, as you know, only 13 minutes walk.