South African CV19 variant seems to evade antibodies. FDA Gottlieb says this very concerning. 1/6/21

[Roch + 537]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-seems-to-evade-antibody-drugs-which-is-very-concerning-ex-fda-chief-scott-gottlieb-says/ar-BB1cwu3b

The UK mutation was discovered weeks ago.  UK labs were testing current vaccines against new UK Covid. We hear nothing ?  

Instead we hear:

"There is no evidence that the vaccines do not work on the new variant"

Statements like this are evasive double talk.  Of course there is no evidence YET.  They either haven't finished testing or withholding info.

Likewise, there is also no evidence the vaccines do work on the UK variant.

SOUTH AFRICAN MUTATION DIFFERENT

Astra Zeneca believes the present vaccines  will not work on the South African mutation. Substantially greater mutations of the spike proteins structure. This is real concern. 

If present vaccines don't work we have a real problem.  Can be fixed but how much time will it take. 

THAT SUCKS

Now the more dangerous South African mutation.  This is different than the UK variant. Don't assume all mutations the same.  

How does this change the timing of the economic recovery ?  The oil market recovery ? 

We won't know until we get some transparency from the "experts" and government officials.  Don't hold your breath.

With this stronger South Africa strain I can't imagine oil market recovery until 2022.

Too early to determine.

"South Africa's health minister, Zweli Mkhize, said that the new variant there appeared to be linked to higher rates of severe illness in younger people, and that scientists are working to learn more about it."

Edited January 6, 2021 by Roch

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

New South African Covid Variant much worse than recent UK mutation. Much Concern.

In what ways is the S.African strain worse?

Is it more transmissible? if so by how much?

Is it more deadly? Again by what factor?

The UK variant and the S.African variant are extremely similar so its likely they will have the very similar transmission rates and death rates.

The UK strain is between 50-70% more transmissible than the original strain, it also seems to be affecting younger age groups ie 30's + however neither strain appears to be more deadly than the original strain in the first wave.

"There is no evidence that the vaccines do not work on the new variant".  This isnt "double talk" as you say, as the scientists need to be given time to see what if any issues these new strains will cause. It is likely that the current vaccines already developed will also be effective with these 2 new strains according to the scientists.

Let the scientists do their research and stop scaremongering!

 

[J.mo + 165]

What exactly do you guys consider a recovery? Price or demand?

Because prices are essentially where they were at last January pre covid and headed on a higher trajectory..

[Roch + 537]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

New South African Covid Variant much worse than recent UK mutation. Much Concern.

In what ways is the S.African strain worse?

Is it more transmissible? if so by how much?

Is it more deadly? Again by what factor?

The UK variant and the S.African variant are extremely similar so its likely they will have the very similar transmission rates and death rates.

The UK strain is between 50-70% more transmissible than the original strain, it also seems to be affecting younger age groups ie 30's + however neither strain appears to be more deadly than the original strain in the first wave.

"There is no evidence that the vaccines do not work on the new variant".  This isnt "double talk" as you say, as the scientists need to be given time to see what if any issues these new strains will cause. It is likely that the current vaccines already developed will also be effective with these 2 new strains according to the scientists.

Let the scientists do their research and stop scaremongering!

 

"South Africa's health minister, Zweli Mkhize, said that the new variant there appeared to be linked to higher rates of severe illness in younger people, and that scientists are working to learn more about it."

 

No Scaremongering bud.

All mutations are not alike.  You assume UK is the same as South African.  You assume wrong.  

I'm sure you will hear more about this in the next couple of days.  You heard it here first.

The new South African mutation has substantially more mutations of the spike proteins.

It does spread faster like UK.  It appears to higher rates of severe illness.  

This is a very serious concern amongst virologists and pharma. But they won't tell you that. Yet

They need time to analyze.  Takes time. 

Many on these forums to make investment decisions. The sooner we realize the risk obviously the better.  

NOTE ! ! !

Astra Zeneca said as a result, they believe the present vaccines may not be effective against South African variant.   

That would really suck.  

If so Recovery pushed out.  

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Roch

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

12 hours ago, Roch said:

You assume UK is the same as South African.  You assume wrong.  

No I said they are "extremely similar" not the same, the UK variant as I pointed out in my post seems far more virulent in younger age groups., like the S.African variant.

Regarding whether the vaccines work or not or to what extent frankly nobody knows yet.

This is why I asked by how much worse (percentages) is the S.African variant to the UK one which you havent answered as I dont believe anyone can at the moment.

As we both agree the scientists need time on this to find out. To post a headline as you have without any facts to back it up is IMO scaremongering.

It may well prove to be correct or it may not, time will tell. These are easy headlines for MSM but they may well be correct as I say, however most experts believe the various vaccines will have the same efficacy on the new strains as the previous ones

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/south-african-coronavirus-variant-more-of-a-problem-than-uk-one.html

One thing I think you should factor in is the standard of healthcare in the respective countries, as I would without a shadow of a doubt prefer to be treated in the UK, no disrespect to any South Africans.

I basically think we're on the same page though.

 

 

 

 

[Roch + 537]

44 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

No I said they are "extremely similar" not the same, the UK variant as I pointed out in my post seems far more virulent in younger age groups., like the S.African variant.

Regarding whether the vaccines work or not or to what extent frankly nobody knows yet.

This is why I asked by how much worse (percentages) is the S.African variant to the UK one which you havent answered as I dont believe anyone can at the moment.

As we both agree the scientists need time on this to find out. To post a headline as you have without any facts to back it up is IMO scaremongering.

It may well prove to be correct or it may not, time will tell. These are easy headlines for MSM but they may well be correct as I say, however most experts believe the various vaccines will have the same efficacy on the new strains as the previous ones

 

All I know some of the leading virologists in the world are "extremely concerned" about the S African variant. Even scientists that believe the present vaccines are "likely" to be effective against the UK mutation or public state there is " no evidence" that the vaccines don't work.  (trying to prove a negative) are very very concerned.

As an investor don't you want to know of any possible risks ?  

Your statement: 

"however most experts believe the various vaccines will have the same efficacy on the new strains as the previous ones" 

That's yesterday's news.  Most knowledgeable virologists don't believe that now.

First they said this before the recent information came out on South Africa strain.  "Most" are not saying that now.  "Most" now are extremely concerned.

The SA strain has (1) substantially more mutations to the protein spike structure.  (2) It now is affecting young people, teens with accompanying serious illness.  (3) This strain carries a much larger viral load.

The " however most experts believe" the standard reply so people don't panic or decide not to get the current vaccines.  That's fine. Nobody wants that.  But their words "most" and "believe" are misleading.  It gives the impression that there isn't any problem .  Why don't they just say , we don't know yet.  

Bottom line , hope for the best.  If you have investments that could be negatively impacted by a longer more deadly pandemic keep your eye on SA.

PS there is another serious strain developing in Nigeria.  No information on it yet. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Roch

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

1 hour ago, Roch said:

Bottom line , hope for the best.

Totally agree, and as I say I agree its too early to say how deadly the new strains are and whether the current vaccines will be effective or not, so lets wait for the science.

"PS there is another serious strain developing in Nigeria.  No information on it yet."  Got any good news?

[Capital Xtend 0]

But The good news is that the new variant doesn't appear to be more deadly. But it is much more contagious — researchers are still trying to determine exactly how much more, but many have estimated it could be 50% more transmissible than the original strain. Source of News- NPR
 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Selva
External links for advertising are not allowed

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

2 hours ago, Capital Xtend said:

But The good news is that the new variant doesn't appear to be more deadly. But it is much more contagious — researchers are still trying to determine exactly how much more, but many have estimated it could be 50% more transmissible than the original strain. Source of News- NPR
 

yes the UK strain is definitely 50-70% more contagious but no more deadly than the first strain, so thats my point about similarities to the S.African strain.

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

MUTATED SARS-CoV-2 and m-RNA Vaccines

Here is the deal.  Fauci's NIAID | NIH agency had isolated and modeled the spike of the SAR-CoV-2 (or so they tell us).  The m-RNA vaccines are designed to hi-jack your body's cells and program our normal body cells to manufacture the spike.

 

If the spike of the mutated SARS-CoV-2 is of substantial difference, the vaccine response will not target the mutation.  The vaccine will be useless.

That said, even the modeling and designing of the synthetically manufactured RNA proteins by the LAB experts who manufacture these vaccines is often wrong.  Here is one of the top experts in modeling of these "designer proteins" who describes all the problems and the many Labs which get it wrong.

 

[Roch + 537]

12 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

yes the UK strain is definitely 50-70% more contagious but no more deadly than the first strain, so thats my point about similarities to the S.African strain.

The SA variant carries a much high viral load.  

Remember the second SA mutation wave showing serious illness in 18 and under age group.  That's a first.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

This is inevitable, the hallmark of corona virus’s are rapid mutations. Unless researchers can find a protein structure on the virus that can’t mutate it will most likely outpace how we currently develop counter measures. The mutations are just getting started unfortunately.