Minerals, Mining and Industrial Ecology

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

The following video gives details about the Ronan Manly article above. 

Basically, SLV is a "scam" if you are looking for an ETF that has custody of the appropriate quantity of physical silver.

PSLV is an ETF with integrity which holds physical silver.

https://youtu.be/JgfRDX6g71o

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

(2 minutes)

Silver Breaks the Matrix! 💎 🙌 🦍

https://youtu.be/NUeQUYSD7tA

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Silver is About to Tear People's Faces Off

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-02-13/silver-about-tear-peoples-faces

Feb 13th

EXCERPTS

Silver in London's underground vaults is running low.

Derivative powers that be are on full defense.

Going on various fiat bubble vision shows, trying to belittle growing interest and physical bullion buying.

Not gonna work. Surely along the way, they will win day-to-day derivative battles. Ultimately, they will lose the physical bullion war.

Ronan Manly of BullionStar reported this past week about shrinking London silver bullion float inventories here on ZeroHedge.

According to Ronan's best estimates of this convoluted almost fully opaque market. Just over 100 to 125 million troy ounces of silver remain unallocated in London...

...As we have seen thus far in 2021, one hundred to one hundred twenty-five million troy ounces of silver can be bought out by investors in a mere matter of a few heavy buying and silver betting days. ...

...Earlier this week, I sat and listened through a bunch of #SilverSquealer interviews scoffing at the influence of new silver bullion and $PSLV share buyers. This week we will focus on the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, Jeff Currie.

In the video above, we cover some of Jeff Currie's February 2nd, 2021 interviews where he tries to.

Only but a handful of days before Jeff Currie went on TV and lied to everyone, the CME Group COMEX silver futures contract size limits doubled from 1,500 to now 3,000 contracts. So Comex traders can soon legally hold sway over a 15 million leveraged price discovery derivative position. Of course, read too that these position limit doublings are merely effective in April 2021, not to be held under compliance until 2022.

But since JP Morgan has such an outsized position underlying over half the fraction silver bullion COMEX pile, it will be through their COMEX warehouse-size that they will likely continue trading exempt from these new 3,000 contract position limits. Working for alleged clients like perhaps the People's Bank of China for instance. 

While the media continually wants to spin this ongoing #SilverSqueeze, playing it off as mere retail bullion buying populism. The underlying truth is that we will likely continue to see larger financial players, commercial users, and perhaps even sovereign nations enter into the fray.

Some to merely make momentum trade profits, but some perhaps even, to better secure strategic silver bullion stockpiles for their future.

Last few years China's silver import demand has plateaued around 3,500 metric tonnes per yr, a little over 110 million ounces per yr.

That is nowhere enough silver for the coming production needs and ambitions of the Chinese 2049 agenda.

I am showing this to you because the silver squeeze will likely become way larger than the mere retail level.

Like Russia, China has been gearing up and stockpiling for this 21st Century cold war.

Of course, everyone paying attention already knows about the massive tonnage of gold both those nations stockpiled in the 2010s.

What we do not know is just how much silver bullion do the Chinese authorities have stockpiled?

How are they going to bid silver away from growing western silver store of value buyers?...

Silver Price Outside New York Trading Hours Now $225.76 oz

ARTICLE CONTINUES

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

SLV: "Authorized Participants May Be Unable to Acquire Sufficient Silver..."

Feb 14th

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-02-14/slv-authorized-participants-may-be-unable-acquire-sufficient-silver

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/1_19.png?itok=u0s7g553

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/2_15.png?itok=DZpiFFpY

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/Screenshot_63.png?itok=FQHx1zHm

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/Screenshot_64.png?itok=MJsucNB7

MORE AT ARTICLE

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

FEB 17TH

A Silver Price Manipulation Primer

by Sprott Money

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-02-16/silver-price-manipulation-primer

EXCERPTS

...plainly evident by the actions of both JPMorgan and Aberdeen in regards to their allegedly "fully backed and allocated" ETFs.

Thanks to @BullionStar and https://t.co/DIvFwhiogM for alerting me to change in #SLV prospectus that let's [sic] SLV off the hook if it is full of paper instead of #silver. This admission by SLV could be the trigger that launches the silver rocket. More here: https://t.co/w1EabVxOAN pic.twitter.com/0qr5NUj4Cy

— James Turk (@FGMR) February 14, 2021

 

Now SIVR (Aberdeen Silver ETF 1140 MT AG) has changed its Prospectus 2 Feb, panicking that "an online campaign intended to harm hedge funds & large banks is encouraging retail investors to purchase silver and shares of Silver ETPs to intentionally increase prices" #silversqueeze pic.twitter.com/WyEg7sL7pq

— BullionStar (@BullionStar) February 15, 2021

As an aside, ask yourself why the fund manager Aberdeen would feel the need to voice a concern regarding an "online campaign intended to harm large banks". What the heck does that have to do with their supposedly fully-allocated silver fund? But I digress…

Since late January, the movement to squeeze The Banks has consistently gained momentum, and I've been asked on multiple occasions to compile a list of all the posts I've written for public distribution through Sprott Money since 2016. So, here's the list. Please feel free to sort through, read, and forward as many as possible....

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

GWh for GWh comparison shows Tesla isn't a “battery company”

Even when assigning zero value to automakers’ non-EV business, Tesla’s valuation based solely on battery capacity deployed are multiples of Volkswagen, GM, BYD, Hyundai, Nissan and others. Read full story

https://www.mining.com/gwh-for-gwh-comparison-shows-tesla-isnt-a-battery-company/

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Copper price keeps soaring as bullish sentiment prevails

MINING.COM Staff Writer | February 19, 2021 | 9:43 am Intelligence Markets Top Companies China USA Copper Nickel Tin 

https://www.mining.com/

https://www.mining.com/copper-price-keeps-soaring-as-bullish-sentiment-prevails/

 

Copper prices continued to soar on Friday, surpassing the nine-year peak seen during the previous session, as bullish sentiment towards base metals resumed after the Chinese New Year.

Copper March futures jumped to as high as $4.0910 a pound ($9,019.16 a tonne) in New York, its highest since September 2011.

The industrial metal is on its way for a third straight weekly gain, having gone up by nearly 15% year-to-date and 7.3% over the past week alone.

Click here for an interactive chart of copper prices.

While copper’s ascent may be an indicator of higher demand, some market analysts believe it may have been squeezed on the supply side too.

Citigroup analysts have pinned the global copper deficit at about 500,000 tonnes starting this year

“You have to remember that commodities like copper are built by both the supply and the demand story. The supply story in copper actually is part of the problem here,” Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global and chief market strategist at Lido Advisors, told CNBC in an interview.

Sanchez said reduced production in Peru, which services demand in top consumer China, may have driven copper prices higher.

Citigroup analysts have pinned the global copper deficit at about 500,000 tonnes starting this year, according to Bloomberg.

Inventories of copper in warehouse registered with the LME are near 2005 lows at 75,700 tonnes, keeping the premium for cash copper over the three-month contract elevated.

The rally in copper prices has also sent the valuations of the metal’s producers higher. Shares of top producers including BHP, First Quantum Minerals and Southern Copper Corp have all seen double-digit gains YTD (12.8%, 15.4% and 17.5% respectively).

The stock price of Freeport-McMoRan has gone up so much that Barrick Gold, which has been rumored to be interested in a merger of equals, has said it will move on to other opportunities.

Other industrial metals

Copper is not the only industrial that has seen monumental gains in 2021.

Nickel has surged 17.3% YTD to 7-year highs as automakers continue to ramp up EV production in response to changing consumer demands, while battery composition continues to change favoring nickel-dense chemistries.

Tin, used in personal electronics and electric vehicles, has rocketed 24% YTD to a decade high, with global mine supply is squeezed due to coronavirus restrictions.

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

MINING.COM MINUTE: Biggest stories of the week - February 15-21 2021

one minute

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ_nEyvXZ3E

https://www.mining.com/

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Shortages, shipping and stocks feed bullish tin price narrative

Reuters | February 19, 2021 | 8:02 am Battery Metals Intelligence Markets Asia Europe Tin 

https://www.mining.com/web/shortages-shipping-and-stocks-feed-bullish-tin-price-narrative/

 

Rapidly rising tin demand from electronics firms, together with supply and shipping disruptions and historically low inventories, are in the near term likely to buttress prices of the soldering metal that have shot up to nine-year highs.

Tin prices on the London Metal Exchange are close to $25,550 a tonne, the highest since February 2012, after a gain of 24% so far this year.

Sign Up for the Battery Metals Digest

 

Consumption of tin, also used in the manufacture of chemicals and lead-acid batteries and to coat steel cans to prevent corrosion, outpaced supply last year.

James Willoughby, analyst at the International Tin Association, estimates supplies dropped 8% to 327,200 tonnes last year, leaving a deficit of 15,000 tonnes.

“We understand producers sold stocks to the tune of 10,000 tonnes, leaving the market with a real deficit of 5,000 tonnes,” he said.

“In the short term, high prices are likely to be sustained. We are seeing extremely high demand and there are still supply issues in the market. We could see a deficit of 6,000 tonnes this year.”

Shipping issues are delaying deliveries and some consumers are paying more to guarantee delivery.

The problem is particularly acute in the United States where physical premiums paid above the three-month LME price have climbed to $1,000 a tonne, double the levels seen in December.

Tight supply last year was largely caused by falling output at major producers such as Indonesia’s PT Timah estimated to have produced less than 50,000 tonnes last year compared with more than 76,000 tonnes in 2019.

“Some of these companies are still operating at reduced capacity,” said Roskill analyst Adam Slade, adding that he expects a deficit of 10,000-15,000 tonnes this year compared with a shortfall of 20,000-25,000 last year.

Shortages meant draws on inventories in LME registered warehouses, which fell below 800 tonnes towards the record lows hit in May 2019.

Stocks have climbed in recent days due to the attraction of a hefty premium or backwardation for the cash over the three-month tin contract, which surged to an all-time above $5,000 on Monday.

But they are still low and the premium is still above $2,000 a tonne.

(By Pratima Desai; Editing by Barbara Lewis)

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-warns-historic-shortage-copper-explodes-higher

and at OILPRICE.COM ...

https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Goldman-Sachs-Historic-Copper-Shortage-Loom-As-Prices-Rocket.html

Goldman Warns Of Historic Shortage As Copper Explodes Higher

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Feb 19, 2021 - 13:05

The endless flood of both central bank and fiscal stimulus means that hundreds of billions of liquidity - to the tune of approximately 0.7% of global GDP every single month...

... are entering the market every month, and the result is not only the continued push higher in risk assets but soaring commodity prices, with industrial metal prices powering to the highest in years on bets an economic recovery and worldwide push for cleaner, greener energy will unleash vast, pent-up demand.

 

As the chart above shows, nowhere has the recent surge been more evident than in the dramatic gains across the base metals complex, with nickel at its highest since 2014 and copper eyeing a record stretch of monthly advances as it creeps closer to $10,000 a ton.

And looking at copper, which is already where it traded just before the global financial crisis...

... it is only a matter of time before we see a new all time high. Indeed, overnight copper extended its surge to a nine-year high as Goldman Sachs warned of a historic shortage with "the market now on the cusp of the tightest phase in what we expect to be the largest deficit in a decade" as Chinese buying "triggers the next leg higher" adding to expectations that prices will near a record sooner rather than later. Here are some highlights from a note published overnight by Goldman analyst Nicholas Snowdon:

China’s return from the LNY holiday has heralded a burst of onshore investor copper buying after the holiday season with limited inventory builds evident so far. This latter trend during a period of what should be peak surplus generation onshore, has particularly bullish implications given that the market is now on the cusp of the tightest phase in what we expect to be the largest deficit in a decade. The very low starting point for inventories at the beginning of this year has been further exacerbated by a counter seasonal stock draw so far in Q1 on a scale only seen once before in recent history (in 2004). These trends point towards a high risk of scarcity conditions over the coming months. In this context, the fundamental outlook for copper remains extremely bullish with no evidence that current price levels are yet stimulating softening effects to reverse both spot and forward fundamental tightening trends. We continue to forecast the largest deficit in 10 years in 2021 (327kt), followed by an open-ended phase of deficits as peak copper supply (2023/24) and a record 10-year supply gap on the horizon. To reflect the rising probability of scarcity pricing our new 3/6/12M copper targets increase to $9,200/$9,800/$10,500/t (from $8,500/9,000/10,000/t previously). We consider below the key bullish increments for copper supporting the revision higher in price targets.

This means that Goldman now expects copper to be trading at record highs in 1 year. Anyway, back to the note:

Chinese investors have refocused on copper. The absence of Chinese investor copper buying for the year-to-LNY period was a clear restraint on copper price action. Chinese buying had been the key buying channel from early November which took copper from $6,600/t to $8,000/t in just six weeks but then dissipated from year-end. However, today on the open after a week holiday we saw SHFE copper interest increase by 22k lots (+8%) set against a strong rise in price (Exhibit 3). This points clearly to the return of very strong onshore investor buying. The absence of this investor flow pre-LNY was in our view predominantly related to typical position squaring into the holiday period rather than reflecting a substantially different view on copper. With that calendar restraint now passing, we expect a sustained wave of Chinese buying. We would note that total SHFE copper open interest (324k lots) is still 16% below late November recent peak (377k lots) as well as 40% below record highs. Therefore we believe there is ample capacity for further onshore positioning extension in copper. We would also note that positioning on Western exchanges (LME, COMEX) has remained relatively stable at significant net long levels, but still substantially below record net length (COMEX money manager net long still 30% below September 2017 record net long). In our view the market remain some distance from approaching peak spec long capacity

Citi agreed with Goldman, expecting a substantial supply deficit until at least 2023.

It wasn't just copper: other commodities have also soared with lithium, key to powering electric cars and backing up renewable energy, rebounding. And while tin headed for an unprecedented 16th straight weekly gain amid a supply squeeze, Platinum has been this year's top-performing major precious metal, thanks to its use in catalytic converters.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Tom Nolan

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

SILVER

February 20th - Saturday

Physical silver is still in extremely high demand. People are paying very high premiums to get it (if the dealer is not out).

I have been following the scuttlebutt and silver COMEX prices daily.

GATA – Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee – GATA.org is a good source for news items. They have been at this game a long time.  http://www.gata.org/

Some pretty wild recent developments which highlight the covert manipulation to keep silver prices depressed…

There are some big silver ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) which are supposed to add physical silver into their vaults when people purchase their stock shares. Examples SLV and SIVR.

  These ETFs are supposed to be for the shareholders who advocate physical silver and higher silver prices.

They also have intimate ties to the Big Banks. Just after the huge spike in silver prices a few weeks ago, they quietly amended their Prospectus to imply that they do not have to add physical silver. In fact, they made it where the shareholder gets taken for a ride, and also stated that they did not want higher silver prices.

This article lays out exactly what these two ETFS did...  “Twilight Zone as ETF Provider Warns Buying Silver will Harm Hedge Funds and Large Banks” by Ronan Manly – Feb 16th

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/twilight-zone-as-etf-provider-warns-buying-silver-will-harm-hedge-funds-and-large-banks/

There are a host of “silver” YouTube Videos out there which discuss this.  This video by well known David Morgan gives an overview of the article mentioned above.

PSLV is a Sprott owned physical silver ETF. This one has integrity. Recently, money has been flowing away from the corrupt ETFs into this one.

  Sprott is well respected in the precious metals sector.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Tom Nolan

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Friday – Feb 19, 2021

INSANE Silver Demand #SILVERSQUEEZE | Andy Schectman @Miles Franklin

 (20 minutes)

https://youtu.be/Q2BtRn4pcrc

1,000 ounce bars typically are used for deliveries by COMEX and many industrial buyers. They are not available.

 VIDEO DESCRIPTION

#SilverSqueeze has made current demand “the closest thing I’ve seen to insanity” Miles Franklin’s president Andy Schectman says, “Phones are ringing off the hook.” He says current demand pales in comparison to the huge demand we saw last March.

  

Are precious metals manipulated by naked short selling or spoofing? Learn more about the debate: (LINK in show notes)

For important context,  “The Elite Others”. Andy Schectman lets us know what the Elite of the world are doing with their quiet buying of precious metals.  See LINK

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/22262-minerals-mining-and-industrial-ecology/#comment-145052

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Best Uranium Stocks for 2021 GRADED by Rick Rule! | URANIUM SHORT SQUEEZE?

n this video, Rick Rule graded my best uranium stocks for 2021 and gave an update on the uranium market and 2021, as also the rumoured uranium short squeeze and much more.

Rick Rule will gladly rate YOUR portfolio on a 1 to 10 basis, for free here: www.SprottUSA.com/RANKINGS

https://youtu.be/THbXINrxYrk

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

SILVER

Monday February 22nd - Silver prices were up overnight and then in the U.S.  ... An hour after open, silver was up 2% at around $27.80 ounce with miners and PSLV following the trend.  First Majestic Silver (which has a large short position) is up around 8%,  "Silver Short Squeeze" has been the talk throughout the precious metals space.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

In previous articles and videos about silver, many people have pointed out how the ETF SLV is a scam.  That SLV changed their rules shortly after the big spike in silver prices to $30 a few weeks ago.  Here is a Bloomberg article about it...

BlackRock Silver ETF Adds Warning on Shortages as Investors Bail

Katie Greifeld

Tue, February 16, 2021, 11:27 AM·2 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-silver-etf-adds-warning-172743113.html

(Bloomberg) -- The Reddit crowd may not have taken full control of the silver market in the end, but they did enough to rattle the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the metal.

The ETF at the heart of a recent day-trading storm -- BlackRock Inc.’s $17 billion iShares Silver Trust (ticker SLV) -- posted a near-record outflow of $712 million in the past week, after absorbing $1.5 billion the prior week in its biggest-ever inflow.

Amid the back-and-forth, the prospectus for SLV -- which is physically backed by silver -- has been updated to warn that the fund’s authorized participants, who work with the issuer to create new shares of the ETF, may be unable to acquire enough of the metal. As a result, the trust “may suspend or restrict the issuance” of baskets of shares, according to new wording in the risk section of the prospectus.

The outflows and the new warning follow a tumultuous few weeks for SLV. After day traders from Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum descended on the likes of GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings last month, the craze spread to silver. Cash poured into SLV after a post on the platform declared the metal “THE BIGGEST SHORT IN THE WORLD” and encouraged traders to buy the ETF.

It looks like the WSB moves may have worried them “and they’re being safe here by writing in that it may have to halt creations,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas. “It definitely raises concern about whether the ETF will function properly if it were to keep growing.”

BlackRock didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

SLV is up just over 3% this year after posting a 47% gain in 2020. The fund’s price jumped to a 5% premium over its net-asset value at the height of the recent buying as the ETF rallied more quickly than its underlying holdings.

If basket issuance is halted, it’s likely that SLV will trade at a premium again, given that authorized participants won’t be able to create new shares to meet a pick-up in demand, according to Dave Nadig.

“Anytime new issuance is impeded in any way, if there is exogenous demand, you’ll see a premium,” said the chief investment officer at data provider ETF Trends. “They’re just giving themselves options for an unpredictable future.”

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Investment In Battery Tech Exploded In 2020

By Robert Rapier - Feb 22, 2021, 10:00 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Investment-In-Battery-Tech-Exploded-In-2020.html

Last fall Swedish lithium-ion battery maker Northvolt announced that it had raised $600 million in equity to invest in capacity expansion, research and development, and large-scale recycling.

The capital raise included institutional investors Baillie Gifford, Baron Capital Group, Bridford Investments Limited, Norrsken VC & PCS Holding together with private investors Cristina Stenbeck and Daniel Ek. It was joined by current Northvolt shareholders Goldman Sachs, IMAS Foundation, Scania, and Volkswagen AG.

The $600 million represented a substantial capital raise for a company that isn’t exactly a household name in the U.S., but Northvolt CEO Peter Carlsson had previously made clear the company’s intent to upend Chinese domination of the European market: “There’s a pretty significant export flow of used batteries to China, and that’s stupid. It’s important to keep these flows within Europe.”

Northvolt made the biggest deal in the battery space in 2020, but it was a huge year overall for the rapidly-growing sector. Mercom Capital Group, a global communications and research and consulting firm focused on cleantech, recently released its Q4 and Annual 2020 Funding and M&A report for the battery storage, smart grid and energy efficiency sectors.

Some of the key findings from the report include:

• Battery storage, smart grid and energy efficiency companies brought in $8.1 billion in corporate funding in 2020, compared to $3.8 billion in 2019.
• Corporate funding in battery storage was up 136% with $6.6 billion in 54 deals in 2020.
• Global VC [venture capital] funding for battery storage, smart grid and efficiency companies in 2020 was 12% higher with $2.6 billion. compared to $2.3 billion raised in 2019.

The report noted that lithium-ion based battery technology companies received the most VC funding in 2020, with $649 million. But other storage categories also received funding, including solid-state batteries, energy storage downstream, energy storage systems, and flow batteries.

Related: Goldman Sachs: Historic Copper Shortage Loom As Prices Rocket

Investor interest in the space is clearly on the rise. In 2020, 105 VC investors participated in battery storage deals compared to 78 in 2019. Breakthrough Energy Ventures was the top investor in 2020. Utilities and oil and gas companies were involved in four battery storage funding deals in 2020.

The report’s highlights also noted:

“In 2020, announced debt and public market financing for battery storage companies was up significantly with $5 billion in 22 deals compared to $1.1 billion in 10 deals in 2019. This is the highest amount raised in public market financing since 2014. Northvolt’s $1.6 billion and Plug Power’s $1 billion loan were the largest public market financing deals in 2020.

There were 19 M&A transactions in the Battery Storage category in 2020, of which two disclosed transaction amounts. A total of 24 battery storage and solar plus storage M&A transactions were announced in 2020 compared to 11 in 2019.”

To date, China has dominated the lithium-ion battery space. The country has a major advantage of cheap labor, plus China has more lithium reserves and greater lithium production than most countries. In 2018, Chinese lithium production was 7,500 metric tons, third among all countries and over eight times U.S. lithium production.

But some of the deals announced in 2020 represent an important shift in developing a robust battery industry that isn’t fully reliant on China.

A big part of this strategy is reflected by Northvolt’s investment in battery recycling. A recent IHS Markit Report noted:

“Large waves of end-of-life batteries (batteries at the end of their usable life) are set to begin this year, creating a sizeable repository of recyclable material. IHS Markit expects that over 500,000 tons (57 GWh) of batteries will reach their end-of-life point in 2020. That figure is expected to rise to 1.2 million tons (121 GWh) in 2025 and reach 3.5 million tons (350 GWh) in 2030—a seven-fold increase.”

With the world increasingly moving in the direction of electric vehicles, and with the expected explosion in the volume of batteries that need recycling, the significant investment in Northvolt seems to make perfect strategic sense.

By Robert Rapier

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Silver Monday Feb 22nd - Up over 3%

March silver futures prices hit a three-week high today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a four-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $30.25 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at $28.25 and then at $28.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $27.33 and then at $27.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 625 points at 413.70 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a contract and nine-year high. The copper bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 426.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 380.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 321.60 cents and then at 425.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 406.65 cents and then at 400.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-22/Short-covering-bargain-buying-boost-gold.html

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Europe’s Rare Earth Dependency Dilemma

By Irina Slav - Feb 22, 2021, 4:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Rare-Earth-Dependency-Dilemma.html

Solar panels. Wind turbines. Electric vehicle batteries and motors. These are just four of the things that need one or more of a group of minerals known as rare earths. Incidentally, these are also four of the things the EU is basing its future on. And it produces next to none of these critical rare earths.

Like lithium, rare earths are abundant. Deposits large enough to make economic sense, however, are only found in a limited number of areas around the world, with the largest deposits discovered so far in China. Rare earth exports are a lucrative business for Asia’s biggest economy, where it has virtually established world domination. And this domination is not good news for Europe—or the United States, for that matter.

In 2020, China mined 140,000 tons of rare earths. The United States was a distant second with an output of 38,000 tons, and Burma was third with 30,000 tons. Europe doesn’t even figure in the list of rare earth producers globally.

“Europe is heavily dependent on imports of rare earths from China. China has very big and good quality resources of rare earth elements. China was lucky in this case,” one academic from the Technical University of Athens told Euronews last year. In a bid to reduce that dependence, the European Union devised an action plan to boost domestic production of rare earths.

The action plan listed research and development of new mining and processing methods, sustainable financing of new mining projects, and recycling opportunities among the steps to be taken to reduce the rare earth dependence on China. It also led to the establishment of a European Raw Materials Alliance to promote wide collaboration on boosting European rare earth output. Yet all this is, for now, more talk than action.

Related: The Texas Cold Blast Was A Warning To Hydrogen Investors

Meanwhile, a mining company made a discovery in Norway that could go a long way towards reducing Europe’s dependence on China. Possibly the most massive phosphate deposit in the world, Norge Mining’s discovery in southwestern Norway contains not just phosphate—which is on the EU’s critical materials list—but also battery-essential vanadium and titanium.

This discovery must have certainly drawn applause from Brussels and from the HQs of carmakers that are getting ready to churn out millions of EVs—once the chip shortage is solved, that is. However, chances are that the Norwegian rare earths will be costlier than Chinese rare earths: after all, China has the most of these and can afford to produce, process, and export them more cheaply than Norway, where production is just beginning, and labor costs are substantially higher. Besides, one discovery might not be enough to secure all the rare earths Europe will need to make its Green New Deal dream come true.

This is the second time the European Union has underestimated the importance of domestic supply. The first time was when European electronics makers and car manufacturers allowed themselves to become dependent on imported rechargeable batteries. Now they are trying to fix this by building local manufacturing facilities. But the problem with rare earths is bigger: China may simply decide to stop exporting the minerals. Compared to that, the threat of Russia turning the gas tap off is a minor inconvenience, especially for a continent that relies more on wind and solar power than gas.

The threat is not just a hypothetical one, either. The Financial Times reported earlier this month, citing unnamed sources, that China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had proposed new controls on the production and export of the group of 17 minerals known as rare earths. In addition to that, government officials had asked industry executives how badly companies in Europe and the United States would be affected by a curb on rare earth exports.

Related: Even Bill Gates Is Struggling To Go Completely Green

In all fairness, the U.S. is the more likely target if China ever decides to go from researching the subject of rare earth export curbs to applying it in practice. Yet the very fact Beijing has the rare earths weapon and can yield it at will should cause insomnia in Brussels. After all, the Chinese already did it once, back in 2010, when they cut off rare earths supplies to Japan for a month after the detention of a Chinese boat captain, Bloomberg recalls in a recent article. During the one-month supply cut, shipments to Europe and the U.S. were also affected, which goes to show just how essential Chinese rare earths have become globally.

What’s more problematic is that there is no alternative to these minerals. In this respect, Europe’s recycling efforts make good sense. That’s not just because recycling could ensure some local production but because it also eliminates the processing stage of the rare earth-bearing ore, where China is dominant, too. So dominant, in fact, that rare earths mined elsewhere, including the U.S., are sent to China for processing because China has the large-scale facilities to do it economically.

Europe, according to 2015 estimates, has enough rare earth reserves to be self-sufficient in their supply. Or rather, it would have enough for self-sufficiency if there was an economical way of extracting and processing the rare earths it has. Apparently, it has yet to find this economical way.

So far, Europe has been good to China. It even made it its biggest trade partner recently. But their relationship is nowhere near a relationship of equals. Melodramatic as it sounds, Europe’s green energy future hangs by a thread. This thread is made of the 17 elements that constitute what we commonly call rare earths, and it’s in the hands of China.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

DISCLAIMERS

PAID ADVERTISEMENT. This communication is a paid advertisement and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Safehaven.com, Medtronics Ltd, and their owners, managers, employees, and assigns (collectively “the Company”) has been paid by United Lithium ninety thousand US dollars for this article and certain banner ads. In addition United Lithium has granted the Company stock options to acquire shares exercisable for 2 years at at price of $0.86 per share.This compensation is a major conflict with our ability to be unbiased. This communication is for entertainment purposes only. Never invest purely based on our communication.

SHARE OWNERSHIP. The owner of Safehaven.com may be buying and selling shares of this issuer for its own profit. In addition, Safehaven has been granted 1M stock options exercisable at a fixed price. This is why we stress that you conduct extensive due diligence as well as seek the advice of your financial advisor or a registered broker-dealer before investing in any securities.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Oilprice.com

Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply

Article at Yahoo Finance

Editor OilPrice.com

Mon, February 22, 2021, 6:00 PM·20 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-prices-soar-tesla-apple-000000850.html

 

The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is gaining serious momentum.

According to experts’ projections, demand for electric vehicles should rise at a 21.1% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) until 2026.

The extraordinary demand that is forecast for EVs over the next five years has now begun to trigger a massive disruption in the global energy markets.

As demand for EVs continues to move higher, the demand for lithium – the critical component needed for the batteries that power all those EVs – is also projected to climb higher.

According to Roskill Information Services, “lithium chemical demand from end-use sectors is expected to increase year-on-year to around 280,000 tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent.”

These projections have already begun to have a profound impact on the price of lithium in the marketplace.

Lithium prices declined from 2018 through the end of 2020, but since December 1, 2020 the price of lithium has soared 71.24% -- and could be poised to climb even higher.

With rising lithium prices and soaring projected demand, what is the best high risk / reward way for investors to play this EV-powered trend for maximum upside potential?

One under-the-radar company, United Lithium Corp. (CSE:ULTH; OTC:ULTHF), appears that it could be at the right place at the right time.

United Lithium’s flagship project is a recently discovered lithium deposit located in central Sweden. The company has agreed terms to acquire the project, with closing expected by April.

This project is a near-surface, near-market, exploration-stage lithium property that appears poised to help the company take advantage of Europe’s soaring demand for electric vehicles, and the EU’s strong push for lithium self-sufficiency.

United Lithium Corp.’s Bergby Project: A Near-Surface, High-Grade Deposit Offering Significant Upside Potential

The Bergby project is a recently discovered lithium-rich pegmatite deposit in central Sweden that offers an ideal location.

This property is near to the world famous Woxna graphite mine, the new Northvolt lithium battery gigafactory and close to major mining and transportation infrastructure, workforce and equipment suppliers.

The Bergby project, if proven up as a commercial deposit, is optimally positioned to benefit from access to the EU market and its growing demand for alternative energy vehicle manufacturing, high tech devices and grid storage systems.

In addition, the project’s proximity to next generation lithium-ion battery manufacturing plants is critical, as is access to nearby EU educational institutions and low power costs for processing hard rock lithium bearing minerals cost-effectively.

The Bergby lithium property should be able to capitalize on three key elements:

1. Probable low cost surface and near-surface extraction...

1. Well-established mining and transportation infrastructure, and...

1. Rapid fulfillment of trade regulations allowing tariff-free sales to potential EU lithium customers.

But the location of the Bergby lithium project is only part of the story of its potential.

Historic Sampling Shows Extensive Lithium Mineralization

Mapping and sampling of United Lithium Corp.’s (CSE:ULTH; OTC:ULTHF) Bergby property site defined an extensive field largely comprising boulders with abundant lithium-bearing minerals.

Assay results from 41 boulders shows Li2O (lithium oxide) values averaged 1.06% within a range from 0.03% to 4.56% Li2O; and Ta2O5 (tantalum pentoxide) assays averaged 168ppm, ranging from 1 ppm to 499 ppm Ta2O5.

Further mapping located lithium mineralization in outcrops. Fifteen samples collected from three outcrops returned Li2O values averaging 1.71%, ranging from 0.01% to 4.65% Li2O; and Ta2O5 values averaging 133 ppm within a range from 16 ppm to 803 ppm Ta2O5.

In 2017, the first and only drill program was completed at the Bergby project.

IN that drilling program, 28 of the 33 holes drilled on the property intersected lithium mineralization along approximately 450m strike length.

The deepest holes tested to only 65m below surface with mineralization is still open along strike in both directions and well as down dip.

Three principal styles of lithium mineralization have been observed in widely -spread boulders and outcrops at the Bergby property, providing encouragement that mineralization may be extensively developed.

1. Homogeneous, fine grained to medium grained leucogranite/aplite: Complex zoned boulders where the aplite material appears to intrude coarse grained pegmatite . This style is rich in tantalum, with an average grade from 31 boulders of 208 ppm Ta2O5. The lithium mineralogy of this style is not yet confirmed, however, the measured specific gravity of highest-grade samples was relatively light and suggests petalite is a dominant mineral (LiAlSi4O10).

1. Petalite dominated extremely coarse-grained pegmatite: Located in both outcrop and boulders; this style is relatively high in lithium and poor in tantalum.

1. Spodumene-bearing, very coarse grained pegmatite: Coarse spodumene crystals (LiAl(SiO3)2 have been recognized in boulders, with crystals up to 30 cm in length.

What’s Next for United Lithium Corp.’s Bergby Project

The European Union has sounded the alarm on critical raw materials shortages, estimating that to meet its climate neutrality goal, it will need up to 18 times more lithium and five times more cobalt in 2030 than current consumption.

By 2050, the EU estimates that it will need a staggering 60 times more lithium than current demand.

For this reason, the EU has added lithium to its critical materials list and launched a multi-billion dollar fund to help speed the production of raw materials to supply the European battery market.

This means there is potential for significant capital available for projects such as United Lithium Corp.’s Bergby project as the scope of the project comes into focus.

Now that a discovery has been made at Bergby, the next task for United Lithium (CSE:ULTH; OTC:ULTHF) is to define the overall size and grade of the lithium and tantalum resource on the property.

The deposit at Bergby is open along the strike to the north and south...and there are additional known pegmatites in the area that have never been tested for lithium mineralization.

A simple drill program on the property of another 25 to 40 holes could be hugely impactful for the company in a relatively short period of time.

It’s possible that such a modest drilling program – one that the company has the financial resources to undertake – could be completed within the year with the goal of uncovering a discovery of several million tonnes at the property.

Experienced Management Team is Ready to Deliver Results

One of the most important factors in evaluating any exploration company is the quality of its management.

In the case of United Lithium (CSE:ULTH; OTC:ULTHF) the company is led by an experienced leadership team with geologic expertise as well as a history for leading successful exploration companies.

This team includes...

Michael Dehn – President, CEO & Director

With over 20 years of experience in the mining industry, he worked as an exploration geologist and later as a Senior Geologist with Goldcorp Inc. Michael has been a director and officer of publicly traded and private junior mining companies.

His expertise lies in grassroots to advanced minerals exploration, and marketing and financing junior companies and Mr. Dehn has extensive experience in lithium and cobalt exploration and processing.

Faizaan Lalani – CFO & Director

Mr. Lalani is an accounting and finance professional with over 10 years of experience covering audit, financial reporting, corporate finance, and operations management. Mr. Lalani previously worked in the audit and assurance group at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Canada, where he obtained his CPA, CA designation, gaining vast experience in accounting practices in both the public and private sectors during his tenure.

Mr. Lalani has also served as a Senior Accountant for PortLiving, a Vancouver based real estate development company, since 2016 and, from 2014 to 2016, Mr. Lalani served as a Senior Accountant with Century Group, a Vancouver real estate development company. Mr. Lalani currently serves as a director and Chief Financial Officer of Soldera Mining Corp., and a director of IMC International Mining Corp.

Bottom Line: Why the Future Could Be Bright for United Lithium Corp.

* Demand for lithium is soaring – and the price of lithium has shot up 71.24% in the last two months. With the worldwide shift toward electric vehicles in full swing, the world is desperately seeking to bring new supplies of lithium online...and the markets are likely to reward any company that can do so handsomely.

* United Lithium is a company whose primary asset showing lithium mineralization is in the right place at the right time, as the Bergby project’s location in Sweden is near the new Northvolt lithium battery gigafactory and close to transportation infrastructure.

* Drilling at the Bergby project has shown an extensive lithium-mineralized surface boulder field. 28 of the 33 holes drilled on the property in a 2017 drill program intersected lithium mineralization and the project showed potential high-grade, near-surface lithium potential.

* The company plans to move forward with an additional drill program in 2021 that could potentially reveal a lithium deposit discovery on the property. Positive results from this drill program could be a true game-changer for the company with Europe – and battery companies – so desperate to bring new lithium sources on line as quickly as possible.

You can find more information on United Lithium Corp. here: (CSE:ULTH; OTC:ULTHF)

Other companies dependent on the battery boom:

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a leader in Big Tech’s sustainability push…but it’s more than just that. From the products themselves, to the packages they came in, and even the data centers powering them, Apple has gone above and beyond to cut the environmental impact.

But now, it’s even getting into the transportation business. "We're focusing on autonomous systems. It's a core technology that we view as very important. We sort of see it as the mother of all AI projects. It's probably one of the most difficult AI projects actually to work on." Apple CEO Tim Cook on Apple's plans in the car space. Electric vehicles aren’t likely to be left out, either…

Apple's rumored car design means that more active material can be packed inside the battery, giving the car a potentially longer range. Apple is also examining a chemistry for the battery called LFP, or lithium iron phosphate which is inherently less likely to overheat and is thus safer than other types of lithium-ion batteries.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a tech giant that creates everything from software to hardware and more. This is important because not only does it help companies with exploration of minerals, it relies on them just as much. Microsoft is a company that is also going above and beyond in its emissions goals, aiming to be carbon neutral in the next ten years. A feat that will not be an easy task for such a massive technology corporation. Why does that matter in the lithium race? Because the green energy boom will be destroyed without the vital metal.

That’s why Bill Gates’ tech giant has made numerous investments in clean energy across the globe. From Ohio to the Netherlands, Microsoft is pouring millions into solar and wind projects to not only help reduce its own carbon footprint but also help neighboring communities do the same.

In addition to its investments and green operations, Microsoft is also getting into the auto-game. Microsoft’s Azure cloud-based infrastructure and edge computing is going to be pivotal in this new industry. Not only will it allow automakers to analyze data and optimize their products, but it will also give them the opportunity to conduct advanced tests and simulations to fine-tune their software in risk-free environments. It’s even partnering with leaders in the auto industry such as Renault and Audi.

Mark Everest, Information Systems Development Manager, Renault Sport Formula One Team noted, “There are so many factors that are constantly changing and can affect race strategy: track temperature, tire performance, what the other drivers are doing. Simulation helps us quickly understand how to configure the car for a particular track."

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has made major progress towards a more sustainable tomorrow. And as a chipmaker, it is reliant on the production of key metals and minerals such as copper and lithium. But what makes NVIDIA even more special is that it is tackling the ESG trend on all fronts. In fact, it was ranked as one of the world’s top 100 companies to work for due to its incredible working conditions, hiring practices and professional development programs. In addition to its ranking as one of the world’s top companies to work for, it was also ranked on MIT Tech Review’s 50 Smartest Companies list and the Human Rights Watch’s Corporate Equality Index.

Not only is Nvidia a role model for companies in its social and governance stance, it is also firmly committed to building a greener future, as well. From its push to use renewable energy in its day to day operations to its innovative technological advancements in chipmaking which reduce the amount of energy needed to power devices, Nvidia is checking all boxes for impact investors.

This year, Nvidia has done something that many other companies have struggled to do. Not only has it stayed afloat in one of the most trying years in recent history, it has thrived. Since January 2020, Nvidia’s share price has increased from $293 to $525, representing a noteworthy 80% increase in value.

While electric vehicles are the talk of Wall Street right now, autonomous vehicles are on the horizon as well, and they too will rely on a number of key metals and resources. And the leader in this push is Waymo, a subsidy of tech giant Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Waymo may just be the de facto leader in the emerging autonomous vehicle industry. It’s already had cars driving themselves across the United States for several years. In fact, in Arizona alone, Alphabet’s self-driving cars have logged over 6.1 million miles. To put that in perspective, that means that Alphabet’s autonomous cars have driven the distance between New York City and San Francisco over 2100 times. Or, as the company explains, “over 500 years of driving for the average licensed US driver.” Even more impressive, however, the vehicles were only involved in 47 “contact events”, and the vast-majority of the collisions were the result of human error and none resulted in any sort of severe injury for anyone involved.

While these tests are extremely promising for Alphabet’s Waymo, there are still some hurdles to overcome. First and foremost, these lengthy trials took place in Phoenix, a city not exactly known for extreme weather. Second, an issue that may frustrate many drivers, the vehicles operated in a sort of hyper-cautious mode, driving at slower speeds and taking sometimes unnecessary precautions to avoid conflict.

While Alphabet’s Waymo gets a lot of credit for these massive accomplishments, a widely loved and wildly popular chipmaker is at its core. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and Waymo teamed up way back in 2017, and have worked together to fine tune their technology together ever since. Through their mutual knowledge of hardware and software, the tech giants have made leaps and bounds towards building the car of the future.

In addition to its efforts with Waymo, Intel has also been on the forefront of developing its own artificial intelligence and vision hardware. Back in 2017, it acquired MobileEye, a supplier of camera-based chips and software to the global mobile industry. And now, in a new deal with Luminar, another emerging tech company on the forefront of this movement, Intel is positioning itself as its own giant of this new sector.

Canada’s Silicon Valley is all in on the sustainability race, too. Shopify Inc (TSX:SH) Canada’s own e-commerce giant helps users build their own online stores. It has huge clients – everyone from Tesla to Budweiser are on board. And the company is beloved by millennial investors. In addition to its revolutionary approach on e-commerce, Shopify is playing an increasingly active role in creating a greener tomorrow. It has committed to spending at least $5 million annually to help combat climate change. It’s even making cuts throughout its own operations, decommissioning its data centers and sourcing renewable power for its buildings. Thanks the these efforts, Shopify has posted a return of 137% this year alone, and is showing no signs of slowing.

The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (TSX:DSG) is a Canadian multinational technology company specializing in logistics software, supply chain management software, and cloud-based services for logistics businesses. Recently, Descartes announced that it has successfully deployed its advanced capacity matching solution, Descartes MacroPoint Capacity Matching. The solution provides greater visibility and transparency within their network of carriers and brokers. This move could solidify the company as a key player in transportation logistics which is essential-and-often-overlooked in the mitigation of rising carbon emissions.

Another way to get some indirect exposure to the booming tech, EV and mineral industries is through AutoCanada (TSX:ACQ), a company that operates auto-dealerships through Canada. The company carries a wide variety of new and used vehicles and has all types of financial options available to fit the needs of any consumer. While sales have slumped this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, AutoCanada will likely see a rebound as both buying power and the demand for electric vehicles increases. As more new exciting EVs hit the market, AutoCanada will surely be able to ride the wave.

Burcon NutraScience Corporation (TSX:BU) is a Canadian tech firm rethinking the our diets. And while that may not seem exciting for minerals investors, it is a key stock to watch in the wider sustainability boom. With a focus on high-purity, sustainable, flavorful, and affordable products, Burcon has checked every box in the consumer’s book. Founded way back in 1998, the company has been at the forefront of the movement for over two decades, and it’s only become more refined since.

According to its mission statement, Burcon “seeks to improve the health and wellness of global consumers through the discovery and development of sustainable, functional and renewable plant-based products for the global food and beverage industries.”

Mogo Finance Technology Inc. (TSX:GO) is a new spin on unsecured credit, which is a burgeoning sub-segment of FinTech. Providing loan management, the ability to track spending, stress-free mortgages, and even credit score tracking, Mogo is at the forefront of an online movement to assist users with their financial needs.

Mogo’s software analyzes borrowers instantly and greatly reduces the traditionally cumbersome underwriting process for loans. It’s online only, so there’s very low overhead and a ton of cash to spend on marketing. Labeled as “the Uber of finance” by CNBC, Mogo is definitely turning heads.

With increasing membership growth and revenue lines continuing to improve, and a platform which many banks have failed to offer, Mogo could well become an acquisition target in the near future.

By. Jody Wilson

The technical information presented in this article has been reviewed and approved by Robert W. Schafer QP, PGeo, as defined by NI 43-101

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Nevada Overtakes Australia To Become World’s Top Mining Destination

By MINING.com - Feb 23, 2021, 2:30 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nevada-Overtakes-Australia-To-Become-Worlds-Top-Mining-Destination.html

The US state of Nevada is the new most attractive region for mining investors, replacing iron ore-rich Western Australia in the 2020 survey of resource and exploration companies released Tuesday by the Fraser Institute.

The new version of the think-tank’s popular ranking is based on answers from 276 participants, which provided sufficient data to evaluate the overall investment attractiveness of 77 jurisdictions.

The result is a combination of two indexes — Best Practices Mineral Potential, which rates regions based on their geologic attractiveness, and the Policy Perception Index, a composite indicator that measures the effects of government policy on attitudes toward exploration investment.

Second place was taken up by another US state, Arizona, which moved up from the ninth spot in 2019. Canada’s Saskatchewan province climbed eight spots from 11th in 2019 to third in 2020 and consolidated its place as the country’s most attractive jurisdiction for mining investment

Western Australia descended from the top spot last year to the fourth, and Alaska dropped from fourth in 2019 to fifth in 2020.

Rounding out the top 10 are Quebec, South Australia, Newfoundland & Labrador, Idaho, and Finland.

Source: Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2020.

When considering how Canadian jurisdictions rank on the Investment Attractiveness Index, the country is the world’s second most attractive region for investment after Australia. This year, Saskatchewan, Quebec (6th), and Newfoundland & Labrador (8th) made it to the top 10, a significant increase compared to 2019, which didn’t feature any Canadian jurisdiction among the best 10.

Elmira Aliakbari, one of the report’s authors, said Canada’s overall investment attractiveness improvement was largely driven by investors’ better perceptions on mineral potential, a factor that weighs about 60% on the main index.

Source: Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2020.

“Policymakers in every province and territory should understand that mineral deposits alone are not enough to attract precious investment dollars,” Aliakbari noted.

When it comes to the ten least attractive jurisdictions for investment, the mining executives interviewed chose Indonesia, La Rioja (Argentina), Bolivia, Mendoza (Argentina), Zimbabwe, Spain and Michigan – in that order.

By Mining.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

• Oil Is Hot Again, But For How Long?
• Gas Companies “Hit the Jackpot” On Deep Freez

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

A New Commodities Supercycle Is Looming

By City A.M - Feb 23, 2021, 3:30 PM CST

CityAM.com is the online presence of City A.M., London's first free daily business newspaper. Both platforms cover financial and business news as well as sport and contemporary lifestyle.

https://oilprice.com/contributors/City-AM

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/A-New-Commodities-Supercycle-Is-Looming.html

Bankers at Goldman Sachs were the first off the line, declaring that the Covid-19 had created the right structural conditions for the same kind of multi-year price growth last seen in the 2000s.

The last couple of weeks have seen copper touch heights not seen by the red metal in nearly a decade, while platinum – a crucial element in the catalytic converters used in cars – is lingering around its highest price since 2014.

And while gold enjoyed a massive rally last year as investors sought safe haven assets during the stock market carnage, 2021 could prove silver’s year – it has even attracted the attention of Reddit’s merry band of bedroom traders, fresh from their “Charge of the Light Brigade”-style assault on Wall Street’s hedge funds.

All this led to a good couple of weeks for those investors backing the FTSE’s mining giants, which one by one set out new and attractive dividend policies.

On the back of its best set of earnings since 2011, Rio Tinto, for example, proposed the highest dividend in its 148-year history of 400p a share.

But despite the promising start to the year, economists are divided as to whether the rapid charge will continue.

What is a ‘supercycle’?

The UN defines a “supercycle” as a “decades-long, above-trend movement in a wide range of base material prices” which follows from a demand shift.

The most recent example of this came in the first decade of the 21st century, with the rapid industrialisation of the so-called BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – sent demand surging.

However, the onset of the 2008 financial crisis put something of a dampener on things, with only China delivering the growth anticipated.

With prices having plunged last year as the coronavirus pandemic shut down industrial activity, the resurgence of some economies – in particular China and the US – has now sent prices soaring again.

This, in combination with a newfound urgency for countries to get hold of precious metals crucial for net zero technologies, has raised hopes that prices could continue their stratospheric rise.

But will the surge continue, or, as others think, run out of steam within a couple of years?

Macro moves

For Jon Deane, former JP Morgan MD and now chief executive of commodities trader Trovio, the macroeconomic environment is primed for such a supercycle.

“One of the only levers governments have left to drive the Covid recovery is fiscal policy – and that means government spending on things like infrastructure, and that will lead to a naturally inflationary scenario pushing prices up”, he said, citing the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as examples.

“Then, you add the immediate demand for materials to the supply constraints caused by the pandemic as nations try to adjust their processes for import and export, and that again pushes prices in destination markets up again.”

In his native Australia, for example, Deane said that aluminium prices had jumped 300 per cent over the course of the year due to new costs related to getting the metal through customs and onto construction sites.

Finally, he said, more fiscal spending will see a weaker dollar. “That alone is going to put a bit under commodity prices of things like gold, silver and platinum as stores of value”, Deane added.

Correcting course

But, says Cailin Birch, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, doesn’t necessarily mean a multi-year growth cycle.

“It’s going to be another wild year for commodities, that’s for sure”, she said. “But apart form in a couple of areas, the conditions aren’t there for a supercycle”.

“The current surges are part of the initial rebound. Markets are currently awash with capital because of optimism about the bounce back and quantitative easing, and that capital is surging for returns.

“But though some economies like China and the US are doing well, many others have months if not years to go before they get back to pre-pandemic levels. So I expect the current enthusiasm to wear off somewhat in the coming months.”

Related: Oil Prices Soar As U.S. Oil Production Plunges 30%

That’s not to say, however, that prices are likely to fall again, Birch adds. “It’s notable itself that we expect the new prices achieved over the last quarter to be sustained over the coming years, especially for those metals used in the industrial sector.”

Pedal to the metal

Both Birch and Deane agree that those commodities set to do best over the coming months and years are those connected to so-called new growth industries.

“Essentially any metal that is going to be critical to high-tech industries – like those used in electric vehicle batteries or semi-conductors – will see a little more growth in the next couple of years, but nothing akin to what we’ve seen so far this year”, Birch said.

Aside from staples such as copper or aluminum, that brings into play a whole trove of other metals, like nickel or lithium.

But, says Deane, traders have been burned before by similar hype. “Two years ago there was a huge amount of hype around the lithium market on the back of developments with EV batteries.

“As a result, loads of capacity was brought onstream very fast – but then there wasn’t the demand.”

So are we about to see a long-term price boom, as several banks have suggested? Ultimately, no one knows for sure yet. But a little speculation never hurt anyone.

By City AM

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

• Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?
• Texas Winter Storm Highlights The Importance Of Fossil Fuels
• What The Media Isn’t Telling You About Texas Blackouts

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

Silver rallied towards $28 an ounce level on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and a dovish-sounding remark from US Federal Reserve chief’s Jerome Powell. The central bank will keep its monetary policy extremely easy for the foreseeable future to support the world’s largest economy. Adding to the bullish tone were expectations of increased industrial demand as investors bet on a swift global economic rebound.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver

[Tom Nolan + 2,441]

LME copper futures skyrocketed to a 9-1/2-year high of $4.1 per pound in the last week of February, as expectations for a stimulus and vaccine-fuelled economic recovery raised prospects for higher industrial demand. The commodity, considered an economic barometer, have been in a massive rally from its March’s multi-year lows on the back of unprecedented measures from central banks and governments to shore up economic growth.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

 

Much more News at

https://www.mining.com/