US unveils plans to counter China’s rise in Asia

[Marcin2 + 724]

Just 1 number to show , that it is impossible to confront China from the perspective of any country (apart from the US).

Since 2017 China produces more steel than the rest of the world combined, and the trend is that share of China is still increasing. Last year, in 2020 , China manufactured 30% more steel than the rest of the world combined. Just the BORG civilization. You want to compete with China, first bring an order to your own house - the US, and prepare sound economic plan.

 

Top 10 steel-producing countries
Rank	Country	2020 (Mt)	2019 (Mt)	%2020/2019
1	China	1053.0	1001.3	5.2
2	India	99.6	111.4	-10.6
3	Japan	83.2	99.3	-16.2
4	Russia (e)	73.4	71.6	2.6
5	United States	72.7	87.8	-17.2
6	South Korea	67.1	71.4	-6.0
7	Turkey	35.8	33.7	6.0
8	Germany	35.7	39.6	-10.0
9	Brazil	31.0	32.6	-4.9
10	Iran (e)	29.0	25.6	13.4

Edited February 6, 2021 by Marcin2
typo

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

Just 1 number to show , that it is impossible to confront China from the perspective of any country (apart from the US).

Since 2017 China produces more steel than the rest of the world combined, and the trend is that share of China is still increasing. Last year, in 2020 , China manufactured 30% more steel than the rest of the world combined. Just the BORG civilization. You want to compete with China, first bring an order to your own house - the US, and prepare sound economic plan.

 

Top 10 steel-producing countries
Rank	Country	2020 (Mt)	2019 (Mt)	%2020/2019
1	China	1053.0	1001.3	5.2
2	India	99.6	111.4	-10.6
3	Japan	83.2	99.3	-16.2
4	Russia (e)	73.4	71.6	2.6
5	United States	72.7	87.8	-17.2
6	South Korea	67.1	71.4	-6.0
7	Turkey	35.8	33.7	6.0
8	Germany	35.7	39.6	-10.0
9	Brazil	31.0	32.6	-4.9
10	Iran (e)	29.0	25.6	13.4

https://theconversation.com/myth-busted-chinas-status-as-a-developing-country-gives-it-few-benefits-in-the-world-trade-organisation-124602

Myth busted: China’s status as a developing country gives it few benefits in the World Trade Organisation

Whether China is a “developing” or a “developed” country for the purposes of the World Trade Organisation matters a lot to the US president.

President Donald Trump ignited a new front in the US-China trade war in July by tweeting that the world’s richest nations were masquerading as developing countries to get special treatment.

They were “cheating”, according to Trump.

What does “developing” even mean?

In the WTO, developing countries are entitled to “special and differential treatment” set out in 155 rules.

However, none of those rules define what a “developing country” is.

Instead, each member is able to “self-designate”, subject to challenges from other members.

Being recognised as a developing country was one of the three key principles China insisted on when negotiating to join the WTO in 2001.

It faced resistance. Several members cited “the significant size, rapid growth and transitional nature of the Chinese economy”.

In response the WTO took what it called a “pragmatic approach,” meaning that China got hardly any of the special treatment that would normally be accorded to a developing country.

---

Read more: Vital Signs. Blame Trump, not China for the looming trade and currency war

---

For example, under the Uruguay Round of tariff reductions that applied to developing countries already in the WTO, China would have only needed to cut its average industrial tariff from 42.7% to 31.4%. Instead, it agreed to cut it to 9.5%.

Similarly, it agreed to cut its agricultural tariff from 54% to 15.1%, instead of the 37.9% that would have been required had it already been in the WTO. These put its commitments on par with those of developed rather than developing countries.

On some issues, China’s commitments far exceeded those of even developed countries. For example, it agreed to eliminate all export subsidies on agricultural products, an obligation that developed countries were only able to accept 14 years later.

It also undertook to eliminate all export taxes, which are still allowed under WTO rules and still widely used by many governments.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[frankfurter + 562]

5 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

https://theconversation.com/myth-busted-chinas-status-as-a-developing-country-gives-it-few-benefits-in-the-world-trade-organisation-124602

Myth busted: China’s status as a developing country gives it few benefits in the World Trade Organisation

Whether China is a “developing” or a “developed” country for the purposes of the World Trade Organisation matters a lot to the US president.

President Donald Trump ignited a new front in the US-China trade war in July by tweeting that the world’s richest nations were masquerading as developing countries to get special treatment.

They were “cheating”, according to Trump.

What does “developing” even mean?

In the WTO, developing countries are entitled to “special and differential treatment” set out in 155 rules.

However, none of those rules define what a “developing country” is.

Instead, each member is able to “self-designate”, subject to challenges from other members.

Being recognised as a developing country was one of the three key principles China insisted on when negotiating to join the WTO in 2001.

It faced resistance. Several members cited “the significant size, rapid growth and transitional nature of the Chinese economy”.

In response the WTO took what it called a “pragmatic approach,” meaning that China got hardly any of the special treatment that would normally be accorded to a developing country.

---

Read more: Vital Signs. Blame Trump, not China for the looming trade and currency war

---

For example, under the Uruguay Round of tariff reductions that applied to developing countries already in the WTO, China would have only needed to cut its average industrial tariff from 42.7% to 31.4%. Instead, it agreed to cut it to 9.5%.

Similarly, it agreed to cut its agricultural tariff from 54% to 15.1%, instead of the 37.9% that would have been required had it already been in the WTO. These put its commitments on par with those of developed rather than developing countries.

On some issues, China’s commitments far exceeded those of even developed countries. For example, it agreed to eliminate all export subsidies on agricultural products, an obligation that developed countries were only able to accept 14 years later.

It also undertook to eliminate all export taxes, which are still allowed under WTO rules and still widely used by many governments.

Amazing to see someone like you post this. Take caution, lest you be targeted by your neo-McCarthy govt as a communist sympathiser. For me, the article is nothing new. Had I posted similar, would anybody here accept my word? If we take this as fact, which it is, it proves China has entered the WTO on the same terms as the US and EU, and still has out-competed both of them. Think about it.

 

[frankfurter + 562]

On 2/6/2021 at 1:48 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Everything I read that's coming out of Beijing gives me the impression that the CCP is itching for a fight, any fight.  Will cooler heads prevail, or will ego?

amazing.  you murcans send your warships to 40 miles off the China coast, and yet you say China is looking for a fight?  you people are warped.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/4/2021 at 3:37 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I would suggest that when the time comes for the United States to confront China, there will be few if any allies. A confrontation will likely come b/c of Taiwan. But who will join us?

The UK is pretty much out, due to history. Hong Kong was obtained by the British Empire via an illegal opium trade, which resulted in the first Opium War. By that time, China was pretty thoroughly addicted. The second Opium War involved France as well--so there goes the European Union's role in all of this. The handover of Hong Kong in 1997 basically was giving back a province to its rightful owner. The U.S. can enjoy trading with HK as a sovereign state all it wishes, but there is at this point almost zero autonomy of HK from the Chinese Communist Party. 

Taiwan is more in question. There was no handover of Taiwan. Plus, Taiwan has its own constitution. Taiwan will have to be taken by force.

Therein lies the mystery of the Spratly Islands. For a long time, those islands have been on maritime charts as atolls, reefs, outcroppings--the remains of useless horsts that were left behind in a fault-block. If you look at SpaceKnow photographs from 2009, they were nothing more than troublesome little cays on a ridge line in the sea. Before the satellite eyes of all the countries of the world, the Chinese built those reef remnants into well-organized island bases. The U.S. did absolutely nothing as these jagged protrusions in the South China Sea--far, far from Mainland China--were built into military installments. Though the Philippines are the closest and you can see the circle of an atoll involving the Philippines, and though they claim the manmade islands, there is nothing they can do. The same is true for Japan and Malaysia, who also claim them.

One has to ask the question why the Chinese built out the South China Sea islands. Well, about 25% of all crude oil goes through that part of the world; there's that. But what will China do, hijack supertankers? No, these islands were meant for strikes. 

Ms. Tsai, who is becoming surer by the day that Taiwan is an independent, sovereign state and was reassured by President Biden that U.S. resolve is "ironclad," was forced to endure a veritable barrage of Chinese fighter planes and nuclear-enabled bombers entering the outer marker, intruding into the identification zone of Taiwan, two days in a row. The U. S. State Department sent a rebuke, trotting out those "Six Assurances" from the Reagan Administration. The Teddy Rosevelt group was sailed into the S. China Sea: that beats the Six Assurances, I suppose.

Here's where we are: The Covid-19 virus was used as a bioweapon. I don't think Xi intended for it to get out of the lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but when it did he neglected to warn the world for over a week. China has benefited mightily from this global disaster: the U.S. GDP has gone into the toilet over the last year (along with the UK & EU) and China's barely took a hit. Like him or not, President Trump was the only one who called Xi out on the virus. To Mr. Biden, referring to it as the Wuhan Virus or the China Virus is to be xenophobic--he will not go there. Led by Trump, Boris Johnson raised his hackles, but then he got sick and also realized 5G, Huwai, bad problem, so retreated to say no more.

China is emboldened. Everyone thinks trade sanctions will do the job. But if you're the UK or the EU, or Russia or the KSA, are you willing to lose China as a trading partner after having your economy decimated? I don't think so. What about the U.S.? Well, it would appear that Tesla is building a giant Gigafactory there, and lest we forget, something like 80% of all our pharmaceutical precursors are put together in China, along with our testing kits and reagents. For crying out loud, we don't even make our own Penicillin anymore! Try to sever ties with China right now, all at once, and you can say hello to 1960 medical practices all over again. 

In short, there is no plan to counter China's rise in Asia. There will be no plan until China makes a run on Taiwan. And that's going to be gut-check time, because the United States is very likely going to be on her own. If Mr. Biden's energy plan goes through, our military can run through our strategic oil reserves in about six weeks. So far, 2021 is not shaping up to be a great year. But it could well get worse.  

  

Indeed, it could get worse. The housing bubble might pop, the bond bubble might pop, or the share-market bubble might pop, perhaps all 3. That is what China and Russia are counting on, and only then will WW3 begin. There is a 50% chance it happens this year, a 75% chance by end of next year, and 99.9% chance by end 2023. It would take some kind of miracle to prevent. 

[frankfurter + 562]

12 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

But why are you angry about this ignorance ? This is site populated mostly by Americans so is pro-American and anti-Chinese by definition. Very few balanced commenters like @Hotone.

On the other hand (I suppose you are Chinese), I think you should like this ignorance. The fact that there is no comprehensive Chinese strategy in US government and US media present China in a very simplified way as authoritarian barbarians clearly plays into Chinese hands. It makes hegemony conflict from Chinese perspective a lot easier to win in the long time.

Ignorance is the reason why the world suffered WW1 and WW2. Ignorance will be the reason for WW3. The USA empire is now declining, and this will accelerate. The cowards that you are, you blame everybody and anything for your ills, rather than have the guts to see your failures are of your own making. Your national attitude is simple and clear: if we go down, we are taking the whole world with us. Your leaders laugh and scoff at your victims; 500,000 deaths of children in one country is "worth the price". You are the only nation to have used nuclear weapons against a civilian target. You allow your president to assassinate anybody at will. Year after year, your military occupies defenceless countries and murders thousands at will. You have the largest nuclear arsenal, and continually threaten the world to use it. again. You elect leaders who seek continually to erode your constitution and civil rights. All this, and very much more, is the result of ignorance, and unlimited avarice. The only question is, at what point in your decline will panic ensue and your great leader pushes the big red button? 

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/4/2021 at 3:37 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I would suggest that when the time comes for the United States to confront China, there will be few if any allies. A confrontation will likely come b/c of Taiwan. But who will join us?

The UK is pretty much out, due to history. Hong Kong was obtained by the British Empire via an illegal opium trade, which resulted in the first Opium War. By that time, China was pretty thoroughly addicted. The second Opium War involved France as well--so there goes the European Union's role in all of this. The handover of Hong Kong in 1997 basically was giving back a province to its rightful owner. The U.S. can enjoy trading with HK as a sovereign state all it wishes, but there is at this point almost zero autonomy of HK from the Chinese Communist Party. 

Taiwan is more in question. There was no handover of Taiwan. Plus, Taiwan has its own constitution. Taiwan will have to be taken by force.

Therein lies the mystery of the Spratly Islands. For a long time, those islands have been on maritime charts as atolls, reefs, outcroppings--the remains of useless horsts that were left behind in a fault-block. If you look at SpaceKnow photographs from 2009, they were nothing more than troublesome little cays on a ridge line in the sea. Before the satellite eyes of all the countries of the world, the Chinese built those reef remnants into well-organized island bases. The U.S. did absolutely nothing as these jagged protrusions in the South China Sea--far, far from Mainland China--were built into military installments. Though the Philippines are the closest and you can see the circle of an atoll involving the Philippines, and though they claim the manmade islands, there is nothing they can do. The same is true for Japan and Malaysia, who also claim them.

One has to ask the question why the Chinese built out the South China Sea islands. Well, about 25% of all crude oil goes through that part of the world; there's that. But what will China do, hijack supertankers? No, these islands were meant for strikes. 

Ms. Tsai, who is becoming surer by the day that Taiwan is an independent, sovereign state and was reassured by President Biden that U.S. resolve is "ironclad," was forced to endure a veritable barrage of Chinese fighter planes and nuclear-enabled bombers entering the outer marker, intruding into the identification zone of Taiwan, two days in a row. The U. S. State Department sent a rebuke, trotting out those "Six Assurances" from the Reagan Administration. The Teddy Rosevelt group was sailed into the S. China Sea: that beats the Six Assurances, I suppose.

Here's where we are: The Covid-19 virus was used as a bioweapon. I don't think Xi intended for it to get out of the lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but when it did he neglected to warn the world for over a week. China has benefited mightily from this global disaster: the U.S. GDP has gone into the toilet over the last year (along with the UK & EU) and China's barely took a hit. Like him or not, President Trump was the only one who called Xi out on the virus. To Mr. Biden, referring to it as the Wuhan Virus or the China Virus is to be xenophobic--he will not go there. Led by Trump, Boris Johnson raised his hackles, but then he got sick and also realized 5G, Huwai, bad problem, so retreated to say no more.

China is emboldened. Everyone thinks trade sanctions will do the job. But if you're the UK or the EU, or Russia or the KSA, are you willing to lose China as a trading partner after having your economy decimated? I don't think so. What about the U.S.? Well, it would appear that Tesla is building a giant Gigafactory there, and lest we forget, something like 80% of all our pharmaceutical precursors are put together in China, along with our testing kits and reagents. For crying out loud, we don't even make our own Penicillin anymore! Try to sever ties with China right now, all at once, and you can say hello to 1960 medical practices all over again. 

In short, there is no plan to counter China's rise in Asia. There will be no plan until China makes a run on Taiwan. And that's going to be gut-check time, because the United States is very likely going to be on her own. If Mr. Biden's energy plan goes through, our military can run through our strategic oil reserves in about six weeks. So far, 2021 is not shaping up to be a great year. But it could well get worse.  

  

What on Earth makes you think you will have no allies? India is more supportive of Taiwan independence than the USA. The UK is seething about what the CCP have done to Hong Kong and have sent their new aircraft carrier to be based in the region. Japan and Australia have both had a gutful of the CCP bullying and are re-orientating exports and manufacturing to India. That twit that thinks RCEP will be a greater force than the Quad doesn't seem to know anything about history or how geo-politics actually works. The military build-up here in the Indo-Pacific is not just for "show". It is serious preparation for the looming "show-down"! The UK has effectively already joined the Quad, and you must remember that we can no longer limit war with China to the mere defense of Taiwan. Once that spark has been lit, we have no option but to try for regime change in China thanks to "the Covid effect". The sea lanes will be blockaded the moment China attacks Taiwan. Hong Kong will be re-occupied, and most likely Shanghai as well. Russia's Power To Siberia pipeline to Beijing will be a major target if they are silly enough to join in. PS: See my latest comment in Nord Stream - US/German consultations for a brief intro to the bigger picture.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

56 minutes ago, frankfurter said:

Amazing to see someone like you post this. Take caution, lest you be targeted by your neo-McCarthy govt as a communist sympathiser. For me, the article is nothing new. Had I posted similar, would anybody here accept my word? If we take this as fact, which it is, it proves China has entered the WTO on the same terms as the US and EU, and still has out-competed both of them. Think about it.

 

Perfect perhaps now as world gentleman we will be able to demonstrate to the world that the US&China can begin trading on equal terms, no more of these nasty little spats in regards to imbalance's. While we are there one could also enter into the dialogue of this nasty IP issues and most importantly settle up with the Paris Accords. See how it is to be a would leader in the community....such a honored path.

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

25 minutes ago, Wombat said:

What on Earth makes you think you will have no allies? India is more supportive of Taiwan independence than the USA. The UK is seething about what the CCP have done to Hong Kong and have sent their new aircraft carrier to be based in the region. Japan and Australia have both had a gutful of the CCP bullying and are re-orientating exports and manufacturing to India. That twit that thinks RCEP will be a greater force than the Quad doesn't seem to know anything about history or how geo-politics actually works. The military build-up here in the Indo-Pacific is not just for "show". It is serious preparation for the looming "show-down"! The UK has effectively already joined the Quad, and you must remember that we can no longer limit war with China to the mere defense of Taiwan. Once that spark has been lit, we have no option but to try for regime change in China thanks to "the Covid effect". The sea lanes will be blockaded the moment China attacks Taiwan. Hong Kong will be re-occupied, and most likely Shanghai as well. Russia's Power To Siberia pipeline to Beijing will be a major target if they are silly enough to join in. PS: See my latest comment in Nord Stream - US/German consultations for a brief intro to the bigger picture.

So you do not see Taiwan as few barrages of missile volleys say a few hundred? 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/4/2021 at 7:16 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Oh brother.  How many times do we have to hash this one out?

Trump went to all other nations, including speaking at the United Nations, about his plans to confront and tariff China for all of the reasons known today.  Reasons that were not being addressed by anyone.  What happened?  The "allies" laughed it off, even openly in the UN.  Trump's speeches made it clear that he wanted all the Allies to recognize what was going on, join the U.S. in confronting China and taking strong steps to reverse what was going on with China.

Much later in time, the "allies", realizing that they had better join in and confront the issues that Trump had been taking action on for months or even over a year, confronted Trump and had the nerve to say that the U.S. had to do it their way.  Trump was already deep in action and told the "allies" (who are we kidding: the EU) they could join in or piss off, he had already been implementing his plans for months.

Show us the data that shows the trade imbalance going up instead of down.  If you have it, let's see how it breaks down, or in other words: What it's leaving out.  I'll believe it when I see it.  (please don't bother with CNN, NBC in any form, or others of their ilk as "references".  They are not references; they are left wing mouthpieces.

Dan, it was Trump that killed the TPP, which was the alliance to contain China. He is the one who thought he had the world at his fingertips and could go it alone. Then he failed to follow through. It was only after Covid that US policy toward China became sufficiently aggressive, mainly at the behest of Pompeo. Don't get me wrong, I like Trump and think he was treated in the most disgusting manner by the mainstream media, but his ego did cost something.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/6/2021 at 5:45 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Good observation. A few decades past, it was felt that the Spratly Islands--back when they were just reefs and outcroppings--were on the same order of magnitude as Kuwait in terms of oil and gas. Then U.S. engineers decided that the oil-rich area was more in the margin of the South China Sea.  

I always figured they were being built out by the Chinese because of strategic reasons, but maybe it's for the oil. China is going to really need a lot of oil and LNG over the next decade, as it weens off coal.

That is part of the equation, but so are the strategic reasons. The Chinese believe there are approx 100bn barrels of oil in the SCS, but u need to remember that they are after ALL the world's resources not just oil, everything. Water, land, metals, you name it. That is why they are in conflict with a record 27 countries, and even are demanding a stake in Antarctica. They want the world Gerry, and they want it ASAP. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

42 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

So you do not see Taiwan as few barrages of missile volleys say a few hundred? 

Of course not. Why do you think your aircraft carrier is passing thru the Taiwan strait? To say "Howdy China, we just wanted to wish you a great day"? It is not the first US carrier group to do so by the way. You have sent several missions thru the strait in the last 12 months, as well as fighter aircraft, nothing new and I very glad you do it, but don't assume that the Chinese will fire the first missile. Just remember that Trump was the first POTUS since Carter that did not get US involved in a war. All it takes is an agreement between Biden and Taiwan to recognise independence, and voila? I hope this happens in a few months time, that is what Biden has indicated. I think there is widespread recognition in the geo-political world that China has out-lived it's usefulness to the West and has become too big a threat to global security to not be challenged. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/6/2021 at 10:49 AM, Eyes Wide Open said:

I have joking said welcome to the card game, it is a 7 card game duce's and one eyed jacks are the wild cards. Today tomahawk missiles have been retro fitted to engage shipping on the high seas. It appears there stand off range would be 1000 miles. It is also known that a 60 missile volley has already been practiced under far less circumstances.

The Chinese are by no means uniformed nor fool's, does one actually believe any country would expose any type of naval intrusion with the threat of a few hundred low tech missiles coming ones way?..Actually 50 would do quite nicely...making a impact does come to mind. Low tech at its finest and deadliest..

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18427/the-army-eyes-getting-into-the-ship-killing-business-with-this-cruise-missile

The sooner both sides quit posturing the better, It is a fools game at best. Unless one is feeling extremely lucky. There once was time this game was called.....

https://www.denexa.com/blog/mexican-sweat/#:~:text=They only stop when they,does not actually beat it.

Mexican Sweat is a simple poker game that turns poker on its head. In most poker game, you’re betting based on what you think your opponents have and what you know you have. But in Mexican Sweat, you know exactly as much information about both your hand and your opponents’ hands as they do, which isn’t everything!

We’re not entirely clear on what, if anything, this game has to do with Mexico. But the “sweating” is very clear—the suspense of worrying about whether a kill card will pop up next can definitely get you sweating!

Object of Mexican Sweat

The object of Mexican Sweat is to have the best five-card poker hand, out of seven cards, without having a kill card in your hand.

So are we feeling lucky are we?

 

 

 

Maybe you are not, but the Chinese Communist Party certainly are, and Uncle Joe is a cranky old man with a short fuse and a lot of gunpowder. He has been in office for two weeks and Mr Xi has failed to publicly apologise to him, and the rest of your pop'n, for murdering over 400,000 of your citizens and counting. Tell me how that ends well? In a few months time, the covid crises will be over from a health perspective, and I believe the next step in the healing process is anger? 

[Wombat + 1,028]

11 hours ago, Boat said:

If China promoted a society and military attitude like Finland they would become more powerful at a quicker pace. It’s all about attitude. If China/Russia/Iran/N Korea etc quickly modeled its treatment of humans like Switzerland and Sweden there would be no need the US to control the world against rouge countries. Then the new war could be engaged. How to guide the worlds largest corporations/religions to a cleaner and more sustainable future for all. 
Think of the trillions in damage, waste and pollution associated with the idea of power.

Unfortunatly 1940 politics still lives. Worry about me and screw the rest. 
 

Gee, what a wonderful idea! If only we could convince China/Russia etc to play the new game? Heck, it ain't like we haven't tried?

The only response we ever get is more nuclear weapons, fighter aircraft, and naval ships. Maybe they just not interested in that idea?

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

19 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Maybe you are not, but the Chinese Communist Party certainly are, and Uncle Joe is a cranky old man with a short fuse and a lot of gunpowder. He has been in office for two weeks and Mr Xi has failed to publicly apologise to him, and the rest of your pop'n, for murdering over 400,000 of your citizens and counting. Tell me how that ends well? In a few months time, the covid crises will be over from a health perspective, and I believe the next step in the healing process is anger? 

I understand both your anger and thought process. Bear this in mind, Biden inherited Trumps military, a military that shown the simplicity of getting something accomplished.

While you may well be right in thinking Biden will attempt a political mess, it will only be allowed at the extreme displeasure of the military.

Aside from that, Biden is only the face piece...no more no less. A standoff between super powers has never happened yet. It is my opinion only that it will be quick and brutal, with a very brief moment of analysis of the other side. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

32 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

I understand both your anger and thought process. Bear this in mind, Biden inherited Trumps military, a military that shown the simplicity of getting something accomplished.

While you may well be right in thinking Biden will attempt a political mess, it will only be allowed at the extreme displeasure of the military.

Aside from that, Biden is only the face piece...no more no less. A standoff between super powers has never happened yet. It is my opinion only that it will be quick and brutal, with a very brief moment of analysis of the other side. 

I think that the military understand that the other side of covid looks pretty horrible either way. War is risky and has horrible consequences, same with appeasement. Did you know that China almost has Australia surrounded? They have built entire cities in Fiji and now have total control over the natives on those particular islands, and are planning to do the same on Daru Island to the South West of mainland PNG? I don't want my children, or my nieces and nephew, to be "re-educated" in the same way that is happening to the Uighers and the Tibetans thank you very much. Just because they will come after the US last, does not mean you have decades to prepare. The military know this. Indeed, it is your military that keeps sounding the alarm but until now, your politicians have been tone deaf. IMHO, the longer we appease the CCP, the more costly the ultimate conflict. History has taught us that, if nothing else.

[Wombat + 1,028]

13 minutes ago, Wombat said:

I think that the military understand that the other side of covid looks pretty horrible either way. War is risky and has horrible consequences, same with appeasement. Did you know that China almost has Australia surrounded? They have built entire cities in Fiji and now have total control over the natives on those particular islands, and are planning to do the same on Daru Island to the South West of mainland PNG? I don't want my children, or my nieces and nephew, to be "re-educated" in the same way that is happening to the Uighers and the Tibetans thank you very much. Just because they will come after the US last, does not mean you have decades to prepare. The military know this. Indeed, it is your military that keeps sounding the alarm but until now, your politicians have been tone deaf. IMHO, the longer we appease the CCP, the more costly the ultimate conflict. History has taught us that, if nothing else.

PS: I am not motivated by anger, just the reality of the situation. I think the majority of Americans have got their heads in the sand. That is understandable, given your overwhelming military supremacy until now. It is the Pentagon that is saying that the Chinese are only 3-4 years from matching your military might, and I believe them. What I do not believe, is that even with an enormous alliance, there is such a concept as deterrence. The CCP will never be deterred. It is not in their DNA. Pls look at what that lunatic Crankfurter is trying to tell you. Chinese steel production = 65% of global output. They will be producing more subs each year than the USA within 2 years. Their industrial production is 4X that of USA, and they have twice as many industrial robots. Add in AI drones, and the picture becomes clear? Should I spell it out? If modern warfare is fought by robots, then who can make the most robots wins? That, I believe, is what Crankfurter is trying to tell you. But what if a genuine, high-level alliance develops that involves the Quad ++, and together we can match Chinese industrial production? That is our only hope, but we would need to do it super-fast, perhaps faster than we can all move? As I said, delaying conflict has risks and consequences too. I would prefer not to be living in such "interesting times", but it is what it is.

[frankfurter + 562]

12 hours ago, Wombat said:

What on Earth makes you think you will have no allies? India is more supportive of Taiwan independence than the USA. The UK is seething about what the CCP have done to Hong Kong and have sent their new aircraft carrier to be based in the region. Japan and Australia have both had a gutful of the CCP bullying and are re-orientating exports and manufacturing to India. That twit that thinks RCEP will be a greater force than the Quad doesn't seem to know anything about history or how geo-politics actually works. The military build-up here in the Indo-Pacific is not just for "show". It is serious preparation for the looming "show-down"! The UK has effectively already joined the Quad, and you must remember that we can no longer limit war with China to the mere defense of Taiwan. Once that spark has been lit, we have no option but to try for regime change in China thanks to "the Covid effect". The sea lanes will be blockaded the moment China attacks Taiwan. Hong Kong will be re-occupied, and most likely Shanghai as well. Russia's Power To Siberia pipeline to Beijing will be a major target if they are silly enough to join in. PS: See my latest comment in Nord Stream - US/German consultations for a brief intro to the bigger picture.

The peoples of the world are fortunate in one aspect: not everybody is a rabid lunatic like the one who wrote this post.

[frankfurter + 562]

8 hours ago, Wombat said:

PS: I am not motivated by anger, just the reality of the situation. I think the majority of Americans have got their heads in the sand. That is understandable, given your overwhelming military supremacy until now. It is the Pentagon that is saying that the Chinese are only 3-4 years from matching your military might, and I believe them. What I do not believe, is that even with an enormous alliance, there is such a concept as deterrence. The CCP will never be deterred. It is not in their DNA. Pls look at what that lunatic Crankfurter is trying to tell you. Chinese steel production = 65% of global output. They will be producing more subs each year than the USA within 2 years. Their industrial production is 4X that of USA, and they have twice as many industrial robots. Add in AI drones, and the picture becomes clear? Should I spell it out? If modern warfare is fought by robots, then who can make the most robots wins? That, I believe, is what Crankfurter is trying to tell you. But what if a genuine, high-level alliance develops that involves the Quad ++, and together we can match Chinese industrial production? That is our only hope, but we would need to do it super-fast, perhaps faster than we can all move? As I said, delaying conflict has risks and consequences too. I would prefer not to be living in such "interesting times", but it is what it is.

Please do go on. I am fascinated by the workings of a lunatical mind.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

22 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Just 1 number to show , that it is impossible to confront China from the perspective of any country (apart from the US).

Since 2017 China produces more steel than the rest of the world combined, and the trend is that share of China is still increasing. Last year, in 2020 , China manufactured 30% more steel than the rest of the world combined. Just the BORG civilization. You want to compete with China, first bring an order to your own house - the US, and prepare sound economic plan.

 

Top 10 steel-producing countries
Rank	Country	2020 (Mt)	2019 (Mt)	%2020/2019
1	China	1053.0	1001.3	5.2
2	India	99.6	111.4	-10.6
3	Japan	83.2	99.3	-16.2
4	Russia (e)	73.4	71.6	2.6
5	United States	72.7	87.8	-17.2
6	South Korea	67.1	71.4	-6.0
7	Turkey	35.8	33.7	6.0
8	Germany	35.7	39.6	-10.0
9	Brazil	31.0	32.6	-4.9
10	Iran (e)	29.0	25.6	13.4

You should blame the green energy politicians. Steel processing from mining to final product will have lots of environmental costs (The Western political correctness). Especially the manufacturing of steels will need lots of coal (The Western hated coal). So someone have to do the dirty works in both. 

Geopolitically, US have the dollars which is FIAT, the MMT only works in US currency. US use the FIAT to maintain the burden of trade routes and military station around the world.  Middle East and Russian and US have the oil (so now Russia, thanked for being sanction now go for gold instead of USD). China go for raw strategic mineral resources and processing. USD is FIAT, when lots of Euro Dollars, and then the Fed, and US treasury debt, people will go for physical resources commodity like mining, oil, gold, steel etc. USD are too easy for US politicians to print in MMT. 

Money is FIAT, Stock because of speculation and derivatives does not show economic reality or efficiency by dividends even with modern technology (looks at Tesla). Consumer price index is for political purpose especially to count USD inflation. Therefore  the GDPs that used to comparing countries are FIAT as well. World economy market's price are baseless nowadays so the measuring of productivity is baseless as well when calculated in value output,  which lead to mal-investments toward speculation base on FIAT, such as Green New Deal.  China, Russia don't have the world FIAT currency so they need to hold on physical commodities in case Dollars keep losing value especially with MMT favor in Biden's administration.

I disagree with you about pro US or pro China. Lots of US or EU people are pro China as well like Wall Street and big tech, Biden (actually Obama) because the interest rates are too low elsewhere with lots of regulations, they will go for China. Whose fault is that?  Moderate rich people in China will pro Western than pro China and at some points love to take all of their money and move to US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand  and if they love EU, will be Crypts, Mata while super rich people in China will move to some tax Haven in Caribbean to enjoy the beach as well. 

EU economy depends on China as well.  The problem not many people have FIAT for Chinese currency so they try to get in, gathering profit, speculation and at some point run away and pass the hot potato for next. China is somewhere you want to be rich ASAP and then jump out to enjoy your assets. When the USD and world demand collapse, USD collapse etc. people will jump out of China and go to EU or US to buy assets cheaply for the next cycle. They don't mind Xi bragging how strong China are for consolidate power within China . Xi knows this as well but his goal is to keep the bubble until 2035.

I doubt any politician in the world can have a clue about measuring things in FIAT so they care to keep their power and that is it. Green New Deal is all about FIAT so people won't worry about how worst the situation after Covid19 with may collapse the FIAT economy. MMT is based on Animal spirit in FIAT, not the real value, but some kind of religion zealots. 

I don't direct my 401k in China because I am afraid of China market than US market and that is it. Not because of I love US and hate China. For the bias side, when I buy thing that I need, I will give priority to made in US then something not in China and then China. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by SUZNV

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 2/5/2021 at 9:39 PM, Hotone said:

I have worked a little with the Taiwanese and have been impressed by their technical prowess.  It is no coincidence that they are a high tech powerhouse, especially in semiconductors - so much so that 2 of their companies account for more than 60% of the global foundry output. 

About 7 years back, I met a Chinese person who was rather pessimistic about the future of China. She told me that during the turmoil of the last century, all the smart and capable people fled China to go overseas, to Taiwan, SE Asia and elsewhere, leaving the poor, uneducated and dumb people behind and so it was hard for China to progress.

Of course from an emotional and ideological point of view, China wants to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. However, the territory itself isn't all that valuable.  The most valuable asset of interest to the CCP is the people of Taiwan.  A war that kills off a lot of the people or cause them to emigrate will be counterproductive to China's aims. 

I think that the current aggressive actions are just posturing.  The Chinese are very patient and can look at this issue in terms of decades if not hundreds of years.  They would not be in a hurry to invade Taiwan unless it repudiates the one-China concept.  This is just my opinion.

 

Last Taiwanese president loved business with China (similar to Biden). But the recent events in HongKong woke Taiwanese people up because Xi didn't honor the convention with the UK and Tsai  was elected. I wonder if many HongKong will move oversea after Covid19. HK talents are highly competitive and they have lots of money from selling their apartments. 

Taiwan, South Korea are constantly under the threat of China and North Korea, so the youngsters are studying hard and work hard in STEM with high nationalism. Even Japan starts lacking behind them in the semi-conductor industry. 

IMHO, many US youngsters after the Cold War are over indulged, take things for granted, very low nationalism and not very patient in learning and less commitment.  Many of  them  should more patient in STEM or useful trade skills, because they have the head starting point with good career opportunities compare to many other countries.

They should consider minimal wage job are for students, immigrants or people who couldn't keep up with career jobs but too proud to be in welfare (West Germany didn't worry about Turkish guest workers in 1970s because Germain would make good use of their head starting point). At the end of the day, a country wealth depends on their citizen competitive skills and productivity, not from exporting dollars, consumptions, arts or speculation. Hopefully the threat of China will wake them up. How many great empires in the past have fallen because the ignorance & indulge of their citizen. Each country has their own domestic problem that will decide their future.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by SUZNV

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

18 hours ago, Wombat said:

Dan, it was Trump that killed the TPP, which was the alliance to contain China. He is the one who thought he had the world at his fingertips and could go it alone. Then he failed to follow through. It was only after Covid that US policy toward China became sufficiently aggressive, mainly at the behest of Pompeo. Don't get me wrong, I like Trump and think he was treated in the most disgusting manner by the mainstream media, but his ego did cost something.

You and I have hashed out our thoughts on the TPP before.  I believe we came to "agree to disagree".

Covid did highlight the fact that they previous administrations had allowed and even encouraged outsourcing and domestic foreign ownership in key technologies and industries. That led to the U.S. and most other countries kowtowing to the Chinese at precisely the moment that Trump was preparing for his next phase.  Nobody needed Mike Pompeo to tell them the basics of what was wrong, although Mike Pompeo is the right man for the job.  A job that President Trump gave him and he excelled in.  But make no mistake, nobody was calling out the Chinese until Trump came along.  Mike was the messenger of thoroughly Donald Trump policy and that is why he lasted where others did not.  I'd like to see Pompeo run for President, I think he'd do well.

Having said all that, yes, Trump's ego of course got in the way, or at least rubbed some people so much the wrong way that they refused to listen to him, let alone go along with him or even admit Trump's wins, of which there were so many.  Alas, opportunities lost.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Dan Warnick

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

You and I have hashed out our thoughts on the TPP before.  I believe we came to "agree to disagree".

Covid did highlight the fact that they previous administrations had allowed and even encouraged outsourcing and domestic foreign ownership in key technologies and industries. That led to the U.S. and most other countries kowtowing to the Chinese at precisely the moment that Trump was preparing for his next phase.  Nobody needed Mike Pompeo to tell them the basics of what was wrong, although Mike Pompeo is the right man for the job.  A job that President Trump gave him and he excelled in.  But make no mistake, nobody was calling out the Chinese until Trump came along.  Mike was the messenger of thoroughly Donald Trump policy and that is why he lasted where others did not.  I'd like to see Pompeo run for President, I think he'd do well.

Having said all that, yes, Trump's ego of course got in the way, or at least rubbed some people so much the wrong way that they refused to listen to him, let alone go along with him or even admit Trump's wins, or which there were so many.  Alas, opportunities lost.

Mr.Warnick I would suggest these opportunities are not lost, but have been inflamed by the current administration. 

To date it is my opinion the US is in a state of shock.. Biden and his power base understand this quite well. As today Biden has signed over 40 executive orders, speed and distance from MAGA is critical for these ideologues, demonstrating a overwhelming show of force is there mantra..Democracy vs a dictatorship comes to mind. They understand well this is not a time for Democracy..

There in lies the critical flaw, no one embraces a dictatorship, it is human nature to rebel and Biden has fanned the flames to a unprecedented level.

In the next 6 months he will only exhasburate this change with federal distribution of money towards far left agendas further inflaming these passions.

Soon this state of shock will wear off and will be replaced with anger and rage. 

Many times ive said Bidens agenda would be Obama 3.0, do not loose sight of the fact it was Obama's policies that cost the old Democratic party over 1000 seats of power. This time Trumps agenda has over 70 million voters, and after 4 yrs of character assassination.

Watch this impeachment closely the back lash will be extraordinary, no one enjoys watching a lynching...no one. Soon governor's across this country will begin the law suits and enjoying the support of over 70 million along with the first conservative court since 1930.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[Hotone + 412]

On 2/7/2021 at 4:03 AM, Eyes Wide Open said:

https://theconversation.com/myth-busted-chinas-status-as-a-developing-country-gives-it-few-benefits-in-the-world-trade-organisation-124602

Myth busted: China’s status as a developing country gives it few benefits in the World Trade Organisation

Whether China is a “developing” or a “developed” country for the purposes of the World Trade Organisation matters a lot to the US president.

President Donald Trump ignited a new front in the US-China trade war in July by tweeting that the world’s richest nations were masquerading as developing countries to get special treatment.

They were “cheating”, according to Trump.

What does “developing” even mean?

In the WTO, developing countries are entitled to “special and differential treatment” set out in 155 rules.

However, none of those rules define what a “developing country” is.

Instead, each member is able to “self-designate”, subject to challenges from other members.

Being recognised as a developing country was one of the three key principles China insisted on when negotiating to join the WTO in 2001.

It faced resistance. Several members cited “the significant size, rapid growth and transitional nature of the Chinese economy”.

In response the WTO took what it called a “pragmatic approach,” meaning that China got hardly any of the special treatment that would normally be accorded to a developing country.

---

Read more: Vital Signs. Blame Trump, not China for the looming trade and currency war

---

For example, under the Uruguay Round of tariff reductions that applied to developing countries already in the WTO, China would have only needed to cut its average industrial tariff from 42.7% to 31.4%. Instead, it agreed to cut it to 9.5%.

Similarly, it agreed to cut its agricultural tariff from 54% to 15.1%, instead of the 37.9% that would have been required had it already been in the WTO. These put its commitments on par with those of developed rather than developing countries.

On some issues, China’s commitments far exceeded those of even developed countries. For example, it agreed to eliminate all export subsidies on agricultural products, an obligation that developed countries were only able to accept 14 years later.

It also undertook to eliminate all export taxes, which are still allowed under WTO rules and still widely used by many governments.

Look up Article 66.2 of the WTO Agreement on TRIPS.  It obligates developed countries to transfer technology to developing countries like China.  America's charges about Chinese forced technology transfer will fail in the WTO.  That's why Trump neutered the appellate courts and tried to kill the WTO.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/09/trump-may-kill-wto-finally-appellate-body-world-trade-organization/

Edited February 9, 2021 by Hotone

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

2 minutes ago, Hotone said:

Look up Article 66.2 of the WTO Agreement on TRIPS.  It obligates developed countries to transfer technology to developing countries like China.  Trump's charges about Chinese forced technology transfer will fail in the WTO.  That's why the US neutered the appellate courts and tried to kill the WTO.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/09/trump-may-kill-wto-finally-appellate-body-world-trade-organization/

Quite well aware of that, i like to toy/bait Mr. Frank...there are time's he becomes so absurd i attempt to emulate his train of thought.

As to this obligation, i can respectfully state US citizens did not empower our leadership at any time to obligate the US to subject to a foreign court system. Actually i do believe that would be highly unconstitutional...George Bush went into this agreement in the dark of night and amended the original articles. Perhaps Mr Jan van Eck might drop in and articulate on such a constitutional issue. Is that not sad i do not grasp the constitution well enough to make a conclusive statement.

@Jan van Eck