Biden suspends oil and gas drilling on Federal Lands for 60 days for review.

[Roch + 537]

If you think it's just going to be 60 days guess again .

Article:

"The Biden administration has suspended new oil and gas leasing and drilling on public lands and waters for 60 days as part a review of programs at the Department of Interior.

The move follows President Joe Biden's campaign pledge to halt new drilling and end the leasing of publicly owned energy reserves as part of his plan to address climate change.

The suspension went into effect immediately under an order signed Wednesday by Acting Interior Secretary Scott de la Vega. It drew a quick backlash from the oil industry.

The order also blocks approval of new mining plans, land sales or exchanges and the hiring of senior-level staff at the agency."

Edited January 22, 2021 by Roch

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Well, he did tell the whole country he was going to do this. I never doubted him. 

Then, choosing as Sec. of Interior a Native American woman who has professed hatred for fracking sort of underscored the statement. 

This is serious. Everyone who thought this was campaign rhetoric can now get nervous. 

For a while, this will help people like me. Obviously, no individual landowner or royalty owner is going to be hurt by this. However, this is only the beginning. When Ms. Harris becomes President Harris, it's lights out for the batch of us. 

WTI $100? Nah! I'm thinking more like $150. The Saudis are going to try to corral OPEC. Iran and others won't go along. But as I've said all along, Joe Biden wants high oil prices, even higher gas prices at the pump, all to get his Biden Green New Deal through and enable him to pump trillions of subsidies into renewables. 

[Hamish + 17]

Just wait....carbon taxes are next.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

Is it really a big deal if it's only on Federal land?

He's probably just appeasing his base (the 50 million he he...sorry couldn't resist) with all of these orders.

Nothing much ever really seems to change.

[Roch + 537]

On 1/22/2021 at 1:17 AM, Hamish said:

Just wait....carbon taxes are next.

Don't forget gasoline tax.  Biden will substantially raise the Federal gasoline tax.   The states will follow.

His reasoning will be , " finance the the infrastructure bill ".   

In my state the Fed, State, Local gas tax is a little over  $0.60 gallon.  It was supposed to go toward roads and bridges.  It doesn't.  It goes in the general fund.  

Biden will tax gasoline like European countries. 

Look for the gas  taxes to double and eventually triple. 

The major use for oil is TRANSPORTATION FUEL.  Biden can't advance green technology fast enough.  He will make driving an ICE car more expensive than buying an electric car by making the price of a bbl of oil more expensive + substantially increased taxes on gasoline.  These costs affect the  low and middle income people disproportionally. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Roch

[Roch + 537]

13 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Is it really a big deal if it's only on Federal land?

He's probably just appeasing his base (the 50 million he he...sorry couldn't resist) with all of these orders.

Nothing much ever really seems to change.

Notice " new and current " drilling.  

One of the loudest critics of Trump is Alaskan Senator Murkowski (R-AK).  Oil is the second largest industry in Alaska after fishing.  It is the biggest contributor to Alaska's state funding and employment.

Now Murkowski will be yearning for the good 'ol Trump days. 

Senator Murkowski will be up for reelection in 2022.  If she plans to run she will have primary challengers.

New Mexico, Alaska and Wyoming could be hurt.  

They will also go after offshore. 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Roch

[El Nikko + 2,145]

5 minutes ago, Roch said:

Notice " new and current " drilling.  

One of the loudest critics of Trump is Alaskan Senator Murkowski.  Oil is the second largest industry in Alaska after fishing.  It is the biggest contributor to Alaska's state funding and employment.

Now she will be yearning for the good 'ol Trump days. 

New Mexico and Wyoming could be hurt.  

They will go after offshore also. 

 

Yes it's going to hurt some states much worse than others I imagine. I think Texas should still be ok but I have no idea how much drilling is on Federal land, I got the impression it's mostly leased from privately owned land?

This is going to cause oil prices to go up a lot if they keep pursuing this kind of mentality, I know they want to kill us off one day but there is no way on earth they can remove oil and gas right now, there just isn't the 'green' infrastructure in place and won't be for years to come. We're getting the same nutty stuff in the UK from a so called conservative government.

I wonder though, they seem to want inflation and rising oil prices is one way to create it artificially.

[Boat + 1,315]

Where does the 60 day ban say anything about no drilling. It does say no new permits and no new leasing. Why do you use Trump speak when Trump is gone. 
What about those thousands of drilled but not fracked wells. I didn’t see him killing wells that are flaring. Has Biden gone soft already? Those with bad lungs wanna know. You know COVID attacks the lungs eh?

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

21 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Yes it's going to hurt some states much worse than others I imagine. I think Texas should still be ok but I have no idea how much drilling is on Federal land, I got the impression it's mostly leased from privately owned land?

24% of the oil produced by the US is on federal lands. That's really, to paraphrase, no big deal except to certain drillers (EOG, Devon, Matador), and you're right, Texas has very little federal land that is oil-rich. 

What Mr. Biden may not realize quite yet is that he has himself in a box, as they say. His newly-appointed but yet-to-be-confirmed Sec. of Interior is a Native-American from New Mexico, which was a very poor state before the Delaware Basin--part of the Permian--came along. The special fund in New Mexico currently receives $1-2B a year from oil and gas. The state is blue and getting bluer. Gov. Michelle Luhan Grisholm has already asked Mr. Biden for an exclusionary waver for New Mexico. If he gives that, he has shown favoritism that would very likely become a Supreme Court case (exceptionally profiting one state while punishing another) from other shale basin states (Wyoming, Oklahoma, Colorado, North Dakota, Pennsylvania). That would be a very black eye for the new president. As I said, he is in a box, as he promised the radical left, including the Sierra Club, that he would ban fracking on federal lands "the very first day in office, period, period, period!"

The great concern I have is that when Ms. Harris picks up Mr. Biden's fallen gauntlet (sometime this year if his appearance/comments/actions in his first day in office are any predictor), she will ban fracking period, period, period . . . as in all of it. She doesn't seem to have any national foresight or gravitas at all. 

25 minutes ago, Boat said:

Where does the 60 day ban say anything about no drilling. It does say no new permits and no new leasing. 

May be his way "out of the box" as a great # of leases were permitted during the several months leading up to the election--probably enough to last those companies through a four-year moratorium. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, he did tell the whole country he was going to do this. I never doubted him. 

Then, choosing as Sec. of Interior a Native American woman who has professed hatred for fracking sort of underscored the statement. 

This is serious. Everyone who thought this was campaign rhetoric can now get nervous. 

For a while, this will help people like me. Obviously, no individual landowner or royalty owner is going to be hurt by this. However, this is only the beginning. When Ms. Harris becomes President Harris, it's lights out for the batch of us. 

WTI $100? Nah! I'm thinking more like $150. The Saudis are going to try to corral OPEC. Iran and others won't go along. But as I've said all along, Joe Biden wants high oil prices, even higher gas prices at the pump, all to get his Biden Green New Deal through and enable him to pump trillions of subsidies into renewables. 

The Democrat party knows it needs reasonable prices on gasoline to maintain controll of congress. That will overrule any other motivations IMHO. Senators and congressmen will have the last say. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

Let's wait for 60 days. I believe President Biden slapped this freeze in place as a counter to ex-president Trump's last-minute post-election executive orders.

[Roch + 537]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The Democrat party knows it needs reasonable prices on gasoline to maintain controll of congress. That will overrule any other motivations IMHO. Senators and congressmen will have the last say. 

Biden Operatives need to throw the "Squad" a few bones to placate them.  This is the first.  

What's second ? Student loans ? Universal Healthcare ? 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

5 hours ago, Roch said:

Don't forget gasoline tax.  Biden will substantially raise the Federal gasoline tax.   The states will follow.

His reasoning will be , " finance the the infrastructure bill ".   

In my state the Fed, State, Local gas tax is a little over  $0.60 gallon.  It was supposed to go toward roads and bridges.  It doesn't.  It goes in the general fund.  

Biden will tax gasoline like European countries. 

Look for the gas  taxes to double and eventually triple. 

The major use for oil is TRANSPORTATION FUEL.  Biden can't advance green technology fast enough.  He will make driving an ICE car more expensive than buying an electric car by making the price of a bbl of oil more expensive + substantially increased taxes on gasoline.  These costs effect the  low and middle income people disproportionally. 

Yes but that still doesn't take the current ice majority away over  4 - 8years. My point being theres only so much demand destruction in the oil side (see covid and unemployment/ work from home - yet the world consumes 90+ MM bbl / d) so remove covid because Biden will do such an amazing job + vaccines  ..... high prices will gouge sales of goods as ppl are sick of being inside their own homes. So will prefer spending on high gasoline vs indoor online as they've been forced to do till "that day". Plus what will he do to coal giving nat gas a boost. So lower for longer economy = more printed money = higher oil . Short that dollar. The only hope us EU wanting a low euro starting a printing race lol then long emerging markets? Complex but not a good alternative vs cheap fuel for America 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

But don't forget, as Robert Burns said, "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."

The Middle East is going to be put in flux again. Iran is enriching Uranium like crazy. 

Chaos isn't far away. 

The oil market is going to do okay. 

And the LNG market is going to go ballistic.

[Roch + 537]

57 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

But don't forget, as Robert Burns said, "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."

The Middle East is going to be put in flux again. Iran is enriching Uranium like crazy. 

Chaos isn't far away. 

The oil market is going to do okay. 

And the LNG market is going to go ballistic.

Probably 

I agree pent-up demand will create a surge in demand.  For how long ? When ?

I agree the Middle East could be put in flux. 

I do think it will create a volatile market. 

Many variables to consider.

Good for trading oil.  Not so much for investing in oil.

Plus news today out of the UK.  They report that data shows the new covid UK mutations in addition to being more contagious appear to be more deadly.

Dr. Fauci says the vaccines "seem" to be effective against the mutations.

When they say "seems" they don't know.  

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/uk-covid-variant-appears-to-be-more-deadly-boris-johnson-says/ 

GM a personal question (answer optional) As a physician have you or will you get the vaccine.  A fair number of doctors and nurses in my area are reluctant to get the vaccine. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Roch

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

Yes, I'll get the vaccine. This virus is going to come under control. It has been hyped to high heaven. But the vaccine response has been magnificent. To tell you the truth, I'm much more concerned about Xi's lab creating Covid-20 than I am about this virus. And to give a modicum of credit where credit is due, as opposed to everyone calling Trump a mass murderer, I actually think the response was good and the mortality count was a quarter of what it could easily have been. 

When this virus is controlled, which I think will be about the beginning of summer, there is going to be one heck of a travel boom. People have been cooped up, scared, lonely. They've put off travel. It's going to be like the Roaring Twenties. I think we will blow right past the global crude demand figures that were posted pre-pandemic. 

When I said chaos, I meant it in the gentlest of ways. But when you have an enfeebled president who clearly didn't understand the 17 documents he was signing, making errors like rural or ural (instead of urban), it is just a matter of time before he commits one heck of a catastrophe on a world stage. If a fellow old guy like me can see his weaknesses, what do you think Xi and Putin see? Someone will test him soon . . . probably very soon, as the world sees the United States as a place in tatters, no longer reliable, at war with itself. And they're about half right. 

Great time for oil and gas.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Goldman's reaction to Biden's initial moves - supportive of oil. #OOTT

 

 

[Roch + 537]

Ó

3 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Goldman's reaction to Biden's initial moves - supportive of oil. #OOTT

 

 

Of course, Goldman wants U.S. to have to buy more oil from Middle East , especially Saudi Arabia.  

The white shoe investment bankers font care if the average Joe had to pay more to heat their home or drive to work .

Ask Goldman what they think of Biden's intelligent chief releasing the report on Khashoggi butchering. 

 

 

[Roch + 537]

3 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

^

Yes, I'll get the vaccine. This virus is going to come under control. It has been hyped to high heaven. But the vaccine response has been magnificent. To tell you the truth, I'm much more concerned about Xi's lab creating Covid-20 than I am about this virus. And to give a modicum of credit where credit is due, as opposed to everyone calling Trump a mass murderer, I actually think the response was good and the mortality count was a quarter of what it could easily have been. 

When this virus is controlled, which I think will be about the beginning of summer, there is going to be one heck of a travel boom. People have been cooped up, scared, lonely. They've put off travel. It's going to be like the Roaring Twenties. I think we will blow right past the global crude demand figures that were posted pre-pandemic. 

When I said chaos, I meant it in the gentlest of ways. But when you have an enfeebled president who clearly didn't understand the 17 documents he was signing, making errors like rural or ural (instead of urban), it is just a matter of time before he commits one heck of a catastrophe on a world stage. If a fellow old guy like me can see his weaknesses, what do you think Xi and Putin see? Someone will test him soon . . . probably very soon, as the world sees the United States as a place in tatters, no longer reliable, at war with itself. And they're about half right. 

Great time for oil and gas.

True.  But Biden isn't making theses decisions .  It's the behind the scene Operatives that managed his non- campaign and now his Presidency.  

I think we will start seeing less and less of Joe.  If he gets really bad they will feign some medical problem and let him "resign  for Medical Reasons". 

Some say Susan Rice is the Shadow President.  Some say Kerry.  There are a few other names talked about.

[Boat + 1,315]

While you boys trash Biden’s mental state he’s had years to plan and organize his agenda. He has much more experience with how power works in Washington than Clinton, GW, Obama or Trump. Whatever he wants will happen much faster. He was born and raised in Congress. 
You may hate or like his policies but make no mistake he knows who to hire to streamline his changes.

Obama picked him for VP for a reason. It wasn't to win an election. It wasn’t for ideas. It was for his experience in how Washington works.

[Roch + 537]

8 hours ago, Boat said:

While you boys trash Biden’s mental state he’s had years to plan and organize his agenda. He has much more experience with how power works in Washington than Clinton, GW, Obama or Trump. Whatever he wants will happen much faster. He was born and raised in Congress. 
You may hate or like his policies but make no mistake he knows who to hire to streamline his changes.

Obama picked him for VP for a reason. It wasn't to win an election. It wasn’t for ideas. It was for his experience in how Washington works.

That's funny.

[Roch + 537]

19 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Yes but that still doesn't take the current ice majority away over  4 - 8years. My point being theres only so much demand destruction in the oil side 

You don't have to to take the ICE Majority away over next 4 - 8 years.  Only 5% of electric vehicles on the road will pressure oil prices enough to make a difference. 

The Oil Producing States are preparing to ramp up production.  OPEC is on its last leg.  The only reason there is any OPEC quota compliance is because they think as soon as the pandemic subsides it will be "happy days again".  It will be happy days due to as you said pent up demand.  But it will be short lived. Maybe a year to 18 months.  

The 5% of on road vehicles will be easily accomplished before 2025.  It will be legislated .  Too early for the mandates to be legislated now for general public.  First, delivery vehicles (Amazon, UPS, Post Office, Etc) , taxis/Uber,  buses , city/state/federal vehicles, etc. Then By 2025, or sooner   By 2025 there will be (1) several hundred models of EVs to choose from(1) There will be all price ranges with many EVs priced in the low to medium range.  

Most won't have a choice to not buy an EV.

Few more years of good oil markets at most.

Too much oil. Demand plateauing.

OPEC will cease to exist.

They are scared of Stranded Oil assets. Already preparing for "sell it while you can" market.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Roch

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Roch said:

You don't have to to take the ICE Majority away over next 4 - 8 years.  Only 5% of electric vehicles on the road will pressure oil prices enough to make a difference. 

The Oil Producing States are preparing to ramp up production.  OPEC is on its last leg.  The only reason there is any OPEC quota compliance is because they think as soon as the pandemic subsides it will be "happy days again".  It will be happy days due to as you said pent up demand.  But it will be short lived. Maybe a year to 18 months.  

The 5% of on road vehicles will be easily accomplished before 2025.  It will be legislated .  Too early for the mandates to be legislated now for general public.  First, delivery vehicles (Amazon, UPS, Post Office, Etc) , taxis/Uber,  buses , city/state/federal vehicles, etc. Then By 2025, or sooner   By 2025 there will be (1) several hundred models of EVs to choose from(1) There will be all price ranges with many EVs priced in the low to medium range.  

Most won't have a choice to not buy an EV.

Few more years of good oil markets at most.

Too much oil. Demand plateauing.

OPEC will cease to exist.

They are scared of Stranded Oil assets. Already preparing for "sell it while you can" market.

I do not think 5% of the vehicles on the road in 2025 will be EVs. I do think 5% of new vehicles sold in 2025 might be EVs. Big difference. To calibrate: less than 100 million vehicles of all types are sold each year. Tesla alone sold 500,000 vehicles in 2020, and total EV sales were perhaps 2 million, or 2% of new vehicles. I can see Tesla getting to 4 million/yr or more by 2025 and the rest of the industry getting to perhaps 6 million, so >10% of new vehicles.  But  the average vehicle lifetime is >11 years, so there are 1.4 billion vehicles on the road and less than 100 million are fully retired (off the road entirely) each year. This means that you would need for more than 50% of new vehicles to be EVs in 2025 to displace 5% of the ICE vehicles on the road.

Meanwhile in the US, The top three vehicle models (by unit volume) are all pickup trucks (Ford, Chevy and Dodge, in that order) with each selling >750,000 units, and nobody has an EV pickup in volume production yet.

The only way the US will shift rapidly to EVs would be for the government to buy and retire old ICE vehicles, similar to the "cash for clunkers" stimulus program of 2009, while also adding strong incentives of some sort in favor of EVs (gasoline taxes, rebates, whatever).  But in 2009, the ICE manufacturers were enthusiastically in favor of the program as a way to sell new ICE vehicles. Those same manufacturers are now in denial about the need to quit manufacturing ICE vehicles, and the entire ICE infrastructure (especially dealers) would lobby against it.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 1/21/2021 at 10:05 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, he did tell the whole country he was going to do this. I never doubted him. 

Then, choosing as Sec. of Interior a Native American woman who has professed hatred for fracking sort of underscored the statement. 

This is serious. Everyone who thought this was campaign rhetoric can now get nervous. 

For a while, this will help people like me. Obviously, no individual landowner or royalty owner is going to be hurt by this. However, this is only the beginning. When Ms. Harris becomes President Harris, it's lights out for the batch of us. 

WTI $100? Nah! I'm thinking more like $150. The Saudis are going to try to corral OPEC. Iran and others won't go along. But as I've said all along, Joe Biden wants high oil prices, even higher gas prices at the pump, all to get his Biden Green New Deal through and enable him to pump trillions of subsidies into renewables. 

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 1/22/2021 at 5:24 AM, El Nikko said:

Is it really a big deal if it's only on Federal land?

He's probably just appeasing his base (the 50 million he he...sorry couldn't resist) with all of these orders.

Nothing much ever really seems to change.

Ever heard of ANWR? Billions of dollars of non investment for Alaska now. Murkowski won't be elected dog catcher now, unless they install Dominion statewide