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Joe's Executive Order will stop ALL drilling on Federal Lands after a two year grace period. Brilliant. No $60 WTI . Forget about trading oil. Try bitcoin.

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Goldman says Biden plan bullish for oil.  They may be two years early. If then ? 


We don't have to wait for Kamala to STOP ALL  DRILLING ON FEDERAL LANDS. 

Biden Exec Order will only allow 2 more years of drilling and production on already leased Federal Lands . Then it stops.

This will increase shale production from these leased properties ( some say 24% of U.S. production ) for those two years. That will be a lot of oil.  It will wreak havoc on oil prices. 

Production will at least double on Federal properties . Probably more.  Tough for New Mexico, Wyoming, Alaska, Oklahoma.  Devon Energy and EOG sorry. 

Senator Murkowski (R-AK) will have some explaining to do to her donors.  She's going to miss The Donald. 

I say Biden's Executive Order , but we all know he's not capable of devising such a plan in his current mental state.


1.  AOC and Anti-Fracking crowd ecstatic they stopped all fracking on Federal Lands.

2.  U.S. production skyrockets for two years which will keep gasoline prices low for two years , thru the 2022 Midterm elections.  

3.  Employment will go up in shale industry producers , services , transportation.

Win - Win for the new Totalitarian Administration.

Edited by Roch

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Not sure about that: 24% (roughly the amount of oil from fed. lands) of 10% (roughly the contribution of U.S. to global oil supply at the peak) is still only 2.4% of global supply. That's not all that large, especially if the vaccines work and "normality" returns. 

To me the greater questions are a) will all these vaccines work--Pfizer, Moderna, Merck, Astra-Zeneca/Oxford, many others, b) will the rapidly mutating virus outrun the vaccines, c) How will China's rapidly escalating race for hegemony play out.

Also, the Delaware Basin (which Biden is trying to protect b/c New Mexico is now so wildly blue) is basically a fossilized reef where the sand and limey ooze were lithified into sandstone and limestone: porous with areas of communication. That means that while you can put in 16 wells per 2560-A plat, the pressure-head will in some areas drop precipitously--then it's gas-lifting using methane, not ethane. If each well costs $8-10M, that's a $130-160M gamble. On top of that, Matador paid upwards of $100,000/acre for some of their best holdings. That's huge! The "sunk cost" for drilling/producing in the Delaware sweet spots for everyone but EOG is just massive. Companies are--right now--just making enough to get along; they can't do that forever and survive.

Prediction: There will be frenetic drilling of the "sweet spots." $60 oil is still coming. When the federal land drilling becomes fact, oil will rapidly go to $100 and above. 

No question: Joe has stepped in it. He has absolutely no idea what he is doing. This is all totally political. But the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry (Robert Burns). Oil field interpretation: This ain't over. 

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