.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Boat said:

Hey, could one of you start a blog on Dr Racheal Levine, Ron Paul, puberty blockers, gender affirming health care, genitalia mutilation and transition surgery for minors.

I just tried, but the system is not up to the task.  Hmm.......sort of like a blackout, wouldn't you say?

[Boat + 1,315]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Lawyers always show up after a disaster, and they get paid even if the lawsuits are frivolous or worthless. Of course, if lawyers get ahead of the facts they can be sued themselves for abusing the legal process.  And the courts have recently shown a willingness to accept countersuits against lawyers for this reason. 

The bottom line for the Texas disaster is obvious, an overreliance on wind-generated electricity is a recipe for disaster when above-peak demands are made against the system.

In this case, even the gas-generated electrical supplies were dependent upon wind-generated electricity in order to function at the multiple levels required when the wind system failed. The failure of the wind generation created a domino impact upon the gas-generated sources.

The entire system was designed to fail under a cold weather scenario. 

So it the turbine problem turns out to be weatherization which was a choice/decision will you retract the silly idea turbines won’t work in the cold?

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

2 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

I just tried, but the system is not up to the task.  Hmm.......sort of like a blackout, wouldn't you say?

I just tried to start a thread on Solar Climate models, but the system is not working. We have to continue posting new info on climate models here on this thread! What happened?

[turbguy + 1,391]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The bottom line for the Texas disaster is obvious, an overreliance on wind-generated electricity is a recipe for disaster when above-peak demands are made against the system.

In this case, even the gas-generated electrical supplies were dependent upon wind-generated electricity in order to function at the multiple levels required when the wind system failed. The failure of the wind generation created a domino impact upon the gas-generated sources.

The entire system was designed to fail under a cold weather scenario. 

THAT needs to be investigated.  You are welcome to your opinion.

Your opinion differs from mine.

As I have said, every black point on ERCOT's frequency chart needs to be explained.  Otherwise, we (and that includes me) is just guessing. 

I feel my lifetime experience produces "truer guesses" that those that feel otherwise.

 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

3 minutes ago, Boat said:

So it the turbine problem turns out to be weatherization which was a choice/decision will you retract the silly idea turbines won’t work in the cold?

You are living in a "what-if" world of fantasy. Let's deal with the facts, what actually happened. Climate warmers inhabit a never-never land of make-believe.

Thank you for the demonstration.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 minute ago, turbguy said:

THAT needs to be investigated.  You are welcome to your opinion.

Your opinion differs from mine.

As I have said, every black point on ERCOT's frequency chart needs to be explained.  Otherwise, we (and that includes me) is just guessing. 

I feel my lifetime experience produces "truer guesses" that those that feel otherwise.

 

Read the info above in this thread, and let's stop the fantasizing about "what-if's". 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

8 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Do you think the US Civil War REALLY ever "ended"?   I beleive i just got badly depressed.

If Texas want's to stay off other interconnects, that's their choice.  It seems to work just fine the VAST majority of the time.

I just scratch my head how they manage to avoid the Feds, since they DO have ties to other interconnects.  They just are not synchronous ties.

Ive have had some interesting reads as to the fundamental causes of the civil war, the take away was quite surprising. In essence it was the deep south desire to trade internationally and the north desire to keep trade in the US. Of course there was volumes of moving parts involved yet at the same time the south lost there work force...

South agriculture

North Industrialists.

 

[Symmetry + 109]

8 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ive have had some interesting reads as to the fundamental causes of the civil war, the take away was quite surprising. In essence it was the deep south desire to trade internationally and the north desire to keep trade in the US. Of course there was volumes of moving parts involved yet at the same time the south lost there work force...

South agriculture

North Industrialists.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q--iGgtRn8

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

33 minutes ago, Boat said:

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/rick-perry-suggests-texans-prefer-191900865.html
 

Perry said Texans would rather remain in the dark if it meant keeping the federal government out, he told House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) office in a blog post published Wednesday.
 

Yep Texan forefathers lost a few good men to Indians and a few more to Mexicans to live in freedom and have slaves. A few good men is a small price to pay rather than the the Feds regulating some weatherization. Suck it up, bury your dead, fix your plumbing and God bless Texas. 😁

Your colon called, it's missing an asshole 

[Symmetry + 109]

4 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Your colon called, it's missing an asshole 

FYI the anus attaches to the rectum, not the colon.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Symmetry said:

FYI the anus attaches to the rectum, not the colon.

Why am I not surprised that it would be you to point out that anatomical detail?   

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

I would also believe that residential loads, at least, be reduced at O'Dark Thirty, too.

That said, SOMEBODY(S) were demanding it.

As LEDs have largely replaced incandescents the relative depth of the nightly winter demand "dip" has lessened. It should still be there in part. Heat pumps are a big issue, since in extreme cold their resistance heaters kick in.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, Boat said:

The bottom line, all equipment for all sources of equipment can be weatherized. This requires competent detailed regulations. What is required should not be left up to any supplier. Texas got hammered and rightly so killing dozens and 10’s of billions in damages because their idiots. We’ll see next election if the citizens will vote the idiots out of office. 

Winterization requires incentives and competence. Government regulation is one way to achieve this, but not necessarily the only way. Rest assured that winterization of the ERCOT grid will now occur. Even if the state and federal government do nothing, The insurance companies will. no company that with a non-winterized generator will be able to get liability insurance, and even minimal existing regulations should prevent ERCOT from connecting a generator that does not have liability insurance. In fact, the companies will probably be desperate for formal regulation and written standards so they can show that they meet them and thereby qualify for insurance.

[turbguy + 1,391]

13 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

As LEDs have largely replaced incandescents the relative depth of the nightly winter demand "dip" has lessened. It should still be there in part. Heat pumps are a big issue, since in extreme cold their resistance heaters kick in.

I kinda expected that heat pump supplemental resistance heaters were going into service, and those can be HUGE current draws.  Heat pumps "poop out" beginning somewhere in the 40 degrees F range (not exactly "extreme" cold).  Certainly they really struggle to deliver much usable heat if it's at or below freezing.  I just am unaware of the fraction of homes in Texas use them.  Since they work fine as air conditioners, a gotta assume there could be "a lot" to reduce the first cost of a home.

[turbguy + 1,391]

1 hour ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ive have had some interesting reads as to the fundamental causes of the civil war, the take away was quite surprising. In essence it was the deep south desire to trade internationally and the north desire to keep trade in the US. Of course there was volumes of moving parts involved yet at the same time the south lost there work force...

South agriculture

North Industrialists.

 

The "south" (and practically all of the USA, including the north) was built on free or really cheap land.

The "south" had the additional advantage of really cheap (not free) labor, particularly offset when you considered the market for "calves".

Edited February 25, 2021 by turbguy

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

4 minutes ago, turbguy said:

The "south" (and practically all of the USA, including the north) was built on free or really cheap land.

The "south" had the additional advantage of really cheap (not free) labor, particularly offset when you considered the market for "calves".

Here have a read, if one follows the subject down and around some very interesting results occur,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_diplomacy  Back on topic for me..watching this evolve is quite interesting. Oddly enough i am the middle of restoring of 80's rv, part of that is a solar "Grid"...love  that word grid. This solar industry is full of more BS than the automotive industry ever contemplated.

 

 

[wrs + 893]

The electricity required for the wells/fields is multifold.  There are gas processing plants that take out the liquids and break them into the various liquid products i.e. ethane, butane, propane and natural gasoline.  Then they dry the gas and put it in the dry gas pipeline.  The lines that feed these plants are gathering lines and may not always be underground.  I believe that they are allowed to be above ground if they are 6 inches or less. 

Then there are the pumps for the water disposal lines that convey the produced water to a water disposal well.  The water is injected back into the well and so they need pumps for that.  Older wells have electrified pump jacks but those aren't much of a source of gas so them going out wouldn't be a big deal.  It's the huge amount of associated gas that comes from the shale wells that was most likely affected by both a loss of power and freezing up of gathering lines and possibly final dry gas but those could also be out because of loss of electricity to compressors.  There are many points of failure between the wellhead and the consumer, be it a NG generator or home user.

[turbguy + 1,391]

4 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Here have a read, if one follows the subject down and around some very interesting results occur,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_diplomacy  Back on topic for me..watching this evolve is quite interesting. Oddly enough i am the middle of restoring of 80's rv, part of that is a solar "Grid"...love  that word grid. This solar industry is full of more BS than the automotive industry ever contemplated.

Yeah, good ol' King Cotton.  And then the Confederacy practically shot themselves in the foot.

We are veering way off topic (again) Sorry.

[turbguy + 1,391]

10 minutes ago, wrs said:

The electricity required for the wells/fields is multifold.  There are gas processing plants that take out the liquids and break them into the various liquid products i.e. ethane, butane, propane and natural gasoline.  Then they dry the gas and put it in the dry gas pipeline.  The lines that feed these plants are gathering lines and may not always be underground.  I believe that they are allowed to be above ground if they are 6 inches or less. 

Then there are the pumps for the water disposal lines that convey the produced water to a water disposal well.  The water is injected back into the well and so they need pumps for that.  Older wells have electrified pump jacks but those aren't much of a source of gas so them going out wouldn't be a big deal.  It's the huge amount of associated gas that comes from the shale wells that was most likely affected by both a loss of power and freezing up of gathering lines and possibly final dry gas but those could also be out because of loss of electricity to compressors.  There are many points of failure between the wellhead and the consumer, be it a NG generator or home user.

Yup, they use electricity, and not trivial amounts.  I would suspect that the electric distribution companies would treat those circuits with priority against rolling blackouts, similar to how they prioritize Hospitals & Police stations.  At least they should be so treated, I hope.

Just guessing...

Edited February 25, 2021 by turbguy

[NickW + 2,714]

3 hours ago, turbguy said:

AHA!  Site Working.  EVERY BLACK DOT ON THIS CHART NEEDS AN EXPLANATION!  THAT INCLUDES WIND!

 

That appears to have answered my question about grid frequency variation tolerances. Its +/- 1%

[NickW + 2,714]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

That is a point that gave me pause.  Are gas supplies coming directly from the wells, or do they come from some sort of post refinement process and storage system?

I can't imagine operators with nice modern CCGT's being willing to put raw gas (especially wet associated gas) through their shiney sparkley turbines.

Different story if you are operating derated ICE gensets. 

[turbguy + 1,391]

5 minutes ago, NickW said:

That appears to have answered my question about grid frequency variation tolerances. Its +/- 1%

Yes.  I never remembered where underfrequency/overfrequency relaying at plants were set, now I know, including a nine minute delay period.   I think I saw that in either IEEE or NERC pubs somewhere in my deep dark past.  3-4 more minutes and ERCOT would have been black.

There's a LOT of protective relaying involved.

Edited February 25, 2021 by turbguy

[surrept33 + 609]

 

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

Do you think the US Civil War REALLY ever "ended"?   I beleive i just got badly depressed.

If Texas want's to stay off other interconnects, that's their choice.  It seems to work just fine the VAST majority of the time.

I just scratch my head how they manage to avoid the Feds, since they DO have ties to other interconnects.  They just are not synchronous ties.

Personally, I always ask, why can't people learn how to be friendly neighbors again? People do this in real life.

For example, when the Republic of Texas had a lot of debt, they chose to join the United States. In condition to joining the "eternal union", the United States (the tax payer) took on the foreign debt of the former Republic and gave some excess 'land' to other states. It makes sense (to me at least!) to build some interconnects for grid stabilization purposes in those areas, particularly from west Texas:

https://landmarkevents.org/assets/email/2017/12-25-history-highlight/inline-map.jpg

I'd also augment some of the older SCADA systems with PMUs, e.g: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phasor_measurement_unit for the ability to modulate much quicker transient-free bidirectional power flows in more distributed DC/AC environments (I just copied what the European grid seem to be planning to installing everywhere which also seems similar to the Chinese grid. I assume the low cost and quick switching ability is why).

 

Edited February 25, 2021 by surrept33

[surrept33 + 609]

2 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ive have had some interesting reads as to the fundamental causes of the civil war, the take away was quite surprising. In essence it was the deep south desire to trade internationally and the north desire to keep trade in the US. Of course there was volumes of moving parts involved yet at the same time the south lost there work force...

South agriculture

North Industrialists.

 

It's fascinating to ask how the modern (hybridized) cotton plant (and the cotton gin) ended up the way it was. It was probably a combination of the Mongol invasions of Europe, India, and China and global (for that time) trade like textiles.

If the south had never developed a plantation economy, who knows, maybe it would have industrialized sooner. The north obviously could not support a plantation economy, because it was too cold, so they had to import coal like the British until a lot was found in the Ohio River Valley. It's also interesting to see how factory plans were smuggled from the UK to the US. 

The British Empire had banned slavery way sooner than we did and the Royal Navy had started blockading any slave ships on their way to the new world (but of course, right after the the British right after losing the Revolutionary War, the British East India company colonized (basically defeated the remnants of the Mongol state and built star forts) India and built a lot of opium poppy acreage to send to China. This resulted in many famines in India and a feeling of humiliation in China, fun!

Commerce is fun sometimes, but it's always important to ask, what is the social contract at play? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Edited February 25, 2021 by surrept33

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

I kinda expected that heat pump supplemental resistance heaters were going into service, and those can be HUGE current draws.  Heat pumps "poop out" beginning somewhere in the 40 degrees F range (not exactly "extreme" cold).  Certainly they really struggle to deliver much usable heat if it's at or below freezing.  I just am unaware of the fraction of homes in Texas use them.  Since they work fine as air conditioners, a gotta assume there could be "a lot" to reduce the first cost of a home.

The 40 degrees number is roughly where a heat pump is the same running cost as a gas furnace. An air-source heat pump continues to be more efficient than a resistance electric heater down to maybe 20 degrees outside air. The problem is that it is not cost-effective to have a big enough heat pump in Texas to heat the house on those very rare coldest days, so you install a smaller heat pump and add "supplemental" resistance heater coils. These kick in when the too-small heat pump cannot keep the house warm, which may very well be at 40 degrees F. Somewhere down around 20 degrees F, the main heat pump is no longer saving any money over using resistance heat, and the system may be designed to shift over completely to resistance heat.