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(edited)

On 3/19/2021 at 2:44 PM, Roch said:

Biden getting on Airforce One today.

Falls 3 times

https://twitter.com/i/status/1372935931204927491  

This is not funny.

BAD OPTICS 

This projects America as weak.

 

 

It's starting. Told ya so. 

U.S. Adversaries Smell Weakness !

China blasts Secretary of State Blinken in 16 minute tongue lashing over Joe's systemic racism narrative. 

All Secretary Blinken can do is apologize.  Here it come again.  The U.S. apology tour has started. 

Russia's Putin challenges Biden to a debate. He wishes him good "health". (veiled shot)

The U.S. envoy meeting China wants to set up a meeting between Xi and Joe.  DON'T DO IT.  If you thought Biden trips (3) to Atlanta were bad optics , could you imagine Joe in the same room with Xi ?

The word from Biden Handlers is they want to get Joe through one year before he "steps down" using some medical excuse (not dementia)

President Kamala soon.  She is an empty pantsuit.  Remember she believed Biden accusers re sexual harassment.  Does she still believe Joe's victim ?

Edited by Roch
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27 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

The Eejit strikes again. Got ya covered there chump

 

F766949F-A6B0-4269-ADAB-26B59565BD47.jpeg

Old men like yourself should hold back on this type of age mockery - you are part of that joke.

I know you live in a fantasy like below:

 

 

 

wptv-president-trump-rocky.jpg

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(edited)

@Enthalpic as usual, your stupidity is duly noted. Meanwhile

 

77EEC3C1-AA39-4550-9EE5-90837DE9FB38.jpeg

 

Edited by Ward Smith
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13 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Dude, Alphabits is a cereal brand. If you're going to go full acronym soup on us, expect to have misunderstandings. Every time I say REE, I mean Rare Earth Elements. Those would include the lanthanide and actinide series. If you don't know what those are, look it up. Perhaps you'd care to go back thru your post and identify terms? 

No, I did not use REE incorrectly. @Ecochargerdid. My first use of REE was in my post that was intended to let the community know that @Ecochargerhad confused the two usages, and in that post I added parenthetical qualifies do disambiguate the usages. As far as I know, the REE in "REE Automotive" is not an acronym for anything.  Perhaps @Ecocharger should care to go back to his post and identify his confusion of the two completely separate meanings of the terms? Perhaps you can explain what I could have done further to point out @Ecocharger's confusion?

Just to nail this down:

REE (rare earth element) referred to by you and ecocharger: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element

REE Automotive (a company) referred to by ecocharger, who provided this link: https://diystockpicker.com/ree-stock-vcvc-stock-analysis/

The elements Lithium and Cobalt are not members of the rare earth elements, which is what you said in the first place. (although they are sometimes lumped together as strategic materials). They are not particularly relevant to the discussion of cobalt or lithium shortages.

REE Automotive designs propulsion platforms for EVs and markets them as components for manufacturers who want to jump-start EV production. These platforms come in all flavors but they generally seem to use NCM battery packs, and these do contain cobalt. This company is not particularly relevant to the discussion of cobalt or lithium shortages, or the transition to LFP, or in fact to anything else until somebody starts actually using the platform to produce vehicles.

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13 hours ago, ronwagn said:

What kind of sales would a practical and inexpensive EV obtain? Something that would compete with an ICE 3 cylinder like our Mitsubishi Mirage. They sell for about $15,000 and get around 40 mpg. We love ours but also drive a minivan and a large van. What price would they be in North America? Would we ever let the Chinese export them to us, they have plenty of such models?

Wuling

The current best-selling car in China is the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV, which costs an incredibly low $4,200. The Mini EV can only do 62mph and lasts a mere 124 miles on a single charge, but you might not need or want more in a suburban or urban environment. Wuling doesn’t appear to have any plans to sell the Mini EV outside of China, but it shows what kind of rock-bottom prices could be unleashed in Europe or the USA, even if higher safety regulations in those regions would push the cost up. If Wuling does release the Mini EV in Europe or the USA in 2021, it could be the cheapest EV around by a very large margin.

Our expectations have changed a lot.  In 2013, the Nissan Leaf was the best-selling EV, with more than 250,000 produced that year. It had a range of 75 miles. My 2014 BMW i3 had a range of 83 miles.

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25 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

No, I did not use REE incorrectly. @Ecochargerdid. My first use of REE was in my post that was intended to let the community know that @Ecochargerhad confused the two usages, and in that post I added parenthetical qualifies do disambiguate the usages. As far as I know, the REE in "REE Automotive" is not an acronym for anything.  Perhaps @Ecocharger should care to go back to his post and identify his confusion of the two completely separate meanings of the terms? Perhaps you can explain what I could have done further to point out @Ecocharger's confusion?

Just to nail this down:

REE (rare earth element) referred to by you and ecocharger: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element

REE Automotive (a company) referred to by ecocharger, who provided this link: https://diystockpicker.com/ree-stock-vcvc-stock-analysis/

The elements Lithium and Cobalt are not members of the rare earth elements, which is what you said in the first place. (although they are sometimes lumped together as strategic materials). They are not particularly relevant to the discussion of cobalt or lithium shortages.

REE Automotive designs propulsion platforms for EVs and markets them as components for manufacturers who want to jump-start EV production. These platforms come in all flavors but they generally seem to use NCM battery packs, and these do contain cobalt. This company is not particularly relevant to the discussion of cobalt or lithium shortages, or the transition to LFP, or in fact to anything else until somebody starts actually using the platform to produce vehicles.

Bottom line through all your labyrinth of verbiage, there are critical shortages coming up for cobalt, lithium, copper and other essential battery inputs, and we have not even reached the take-off point for the EV world. We have produced about 3 to 5 million vehicles, and need about several HUNDRED million vehicles to satisfy the green dream. Prices of scarce inputs will skyrocket long before the scale-up is reached. Only a few wealthy folks will be driving these things.

 

But it is all a side-issue. Atmospheric CO2 climate change looks like a mirage, anyway.

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5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Bottom line through all your labyrinth of verbiage, there are critical shortages coming up for cobalt, lithium, copper and other essential battery inputs, and we have not even reached the take-off point for the EV world. We have produced about 3 to 5 million vehicles, and need about several HUNDRED million vehicles to satisfy the green dream. Prices of scarce inputs will skyrocket long before the scale-up is reached. Only a few wealthy folks will be driving these things.

 

But it is all a side-issue. Atmospheric CO2 climate change looks like a mirage, anyway.

We will eventually need to replace the 1.4 billion ICE on the road today, and eventually add more, to an eventual total of perhaps 2.0 billion. We currently produce about 92 million/yr, of which about 2.5 million/yr (2.5%) are EVs. EV production is rising rapidly. Let's grossly oversimplify: a ramp-up from 0% today to 100 million/yr starting in 2030, with ICE dropping from 97.5% today to 0% in 2030.  Let's further oversimplify and say that at 100 million/yr it will take until 2050 to replace all of the ICE.

For some reason you think there will be no technological advances between now and 2030 that will mitigate the need for "scarce inputs". You are wrong, as I have repeatedly documented in this thread. Cobalt will not be used in any but the supercar category because LFP batteries will be used: this is already happening. Lithium is not scarce, except locally: supply will increase to meet demand, pretty much exactly like it does for oil today. By contrast to oil, lithium can be recycled from batteries, so demand will eventually fall to a small steady state. Copper is an issue as long as lithium is used in batteries, but by 2030, some other battery chemistry may reach production. For example, sodium-ion batteries don't need lithium and therefore can use copper instead of aluminum. More generally, there are lots of possible substitutions, so any big increase in a commodity price will cause a substitution, and prices will not "skyrocket". If you want to worry about skyrocketing commodities affecting vehicles, look at oil.

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(edited)

Back to the real subject at hand.  Texas Politics and Wall Street.

WHO controls ERCOT?   WHO "controls" Texas politics?  Does a Texan's vote really matter?

Some on Wall Street Profited off Texas Blackouts. In a Private Call, a Top Regulator Pledged He Would Try to Protect Their Windfall.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/wall-street-profited-off-texas-blackouts/

D’Andrea indicated that he expects to remain the sole regulator over the electric markets for the foreseeable future. He said he doesn’t think Abbott is interested in appointing new commissioners during the legislative session, when appointees would have to be confirmed by lawmakers. “I went from being on a very hot seat to having one of the safest jobs in Texas,” D’Andrea said. “I think it’s just going to be me for a while.”

 

Wow!  Some oversight, eh?

And then...

https://www.powermag.com/more-blackout-fallout-new-texas-puc-chair-resigns/

BANG!

 

Edited by turbguy

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Our expectations have changed a lot.  In 2013, the Nissan Leaf was the best-selling EV, with more than 250,000 produced that year. It had a range of 75 miles. My 2014 BMW i3 had a range of 83 miles.

You are quite correct in regards to the Leaf'achievement. However as i have said over and over...unsubstantiable. 

https://www.autoblog.com/2013/01/14/nissan-leaf-becomes-least-expensive-5-seat-ev-with-massive-price/

 

Nissan Brings New, U.S.-Assembled 2013 LEAF to Market with Major Price Reduction

  • Addition of a new LEAF S trim level lowers entry price by more than $6,000, or 18 percent
  • Available federal and state incentives can bring price down to less than $19,000
  • Improved energy efficiency, faster charging times and greater customer choice headline 2013 model year improvements

FRANKLIN, Tenn. – Nissan has announced that U.S. pricing for the new 2013 Nissan LEAF will start at an MSRP of $28,800 for the newly-added S grade, making it the lowest priced five-passenger electric vehicle sold in the United States. Depending on location, some consumers may purchase the vehicle for as low as $18,800 with qualifying federal and state tax credits, putting the LEAF on par with gas-powered vehicles of its size.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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30 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

We will eventually need to replace the 1.4 billion ICE on the road today, and eventually add more, to an eventual total of perhaps 2.0 billion. We currently produce about 92 million/yr, of which about 2.5 million/yr (2.5%) are EVs. EV production is rising rapidly. Let's grossly oversimplify: a ramp-up from 0% today to 100 million/yr starting in 2030, with ICE dropping from 97.5% today to 0% in 2030.  Let's further oversimplify and say that at 100 million/yr it will take until 2050 to replace all of the ICE.

For some reason you think there will be no technological advances between now and 2030 that will mitigate the need for "scarce inputs". You are wrong, as I have repeatedly documented in this thread. Cobalt will not be used in any but the supercar category because LFP batteries will be used: this is already happening. Lithium is not scarce, except locally: supply will increase to meet demand, pretty much exactly like it does for oil today. By contrast to oil, lithium can be recycled from batteries, so demand will eventually fall to a small steady state. Copper is an issue as long as lithium is used in batteries, but by 2030, some other battery chemistry may reach production. For example, sodium-ion batteries don't need lithium and therefore can use copper instead of aluminum. More generally, there are lots of possible substitutions, so any big increase in a commodity price will cause a substitution, and prices will not "skyrocket". If you want to worry about skyrocketing commodities affecting vehicles, look at oil.

First of all, eliminate any mention of possible future technologies to overcome the problems...that is just wishing against the facts. There are many principal components which do not change the fundamental equations over the decades, such as steel inputs, availability of oil for fuel and lubrication, these are all givens which do not change over time. They represent the template of current, past and even future models which are competing for usage. The current ICE systems use few rare or scarce materials, and as you say, have provided 1.4 billion or 1,400 million vehicles, within financial reach of even the poorest citizens. Currently we have about 3 to 5 million EV vehicles, which rely on some scarce materials. So that is about 1,400/4 or about 350/1. This is not even a contest, the EV stock is not even a drop in the bucket of what is needed to maintain an acceptable standard of living in personal transport. This is dreamsville.

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(edited)

18 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

First of all, eliminate any mention of possible future technologies to overcome the problems...that is just wishing against the facts. There are many principal components which do not change the fundamental equations over the decades, such as steel inputs, availability of oil for fuel and lubrication, these are all givens which do not change over time. They represent the template of current, past and even future models which are competing for usage. The current ICE systems use few rare or scarce materials, and as you say, have provided 1.4 billion or 1,400 million vehicles, within financial reach of even the poorest citizens. Currently we have about 3 to 5 million EV vehicles, which rely on some scarce materials. So that is about 1,400/4 or about 350/1. This is not even a contest, the EV stock is not even a drop in the bucket of what is needed to maintain an acceptable standard of living in personal transport. This is dreamsville.

I would not bet against future technologies.

Humanity found out how it can make computers from dirt.

And they can now fit in your pocket.

Thank the Lord for dirt.

Edited by turbguy
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(edited)

8 minutes ago, turbguy said:

I would not bet against future technologies.

Humanity found out how it can make computers from dirt.

Thank the Lord for dirt.

Yes quite true, dirt does seem to contain a smidge of gas a 400 yr supply of gas...and dirt cheap to boot.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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9 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Yes quite true, dirt does seem to contain a smidge of gas a 400 yr supply of gas...and dirt cheap to boot.

Unfortunately, that 400 years supply was not enough for Texas in rare times of dire need.

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43 minutes ago, turbguy said:

I would not bet against future technologies.

Humanity found out how it can make computers from dirt.

And they can now fit in your pocket.

Thank the Lord for dirt.

You can always speculate about future technological change, but that works both ways, you can speculate about how cheap carbon capture will become, if you think that is important, and that will change your views on ICE.

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3 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Our expectations have changed a lot.  In 2013, the Nissan Leaf was the best-selling EV, with more than 250,000 produced that year. It had a range of 75 miles. My 2014 BMW i3 had a range of 83 miles.

I would be much more interested in a lower priced vehicle to run around in town and locally. 100 real miles would be fine. People are buying electric bikes, scooters, motor scooters etc. Most towns do not safely accomodate them and they don't have enough room for shopping. 

There are plenty of people who cannot afford a dependable vehicle and the maintenance on an old vehicle. That is who I am thinking of. I think there is a good market for low priced EVs but American companies will fight tooth and nail to keep them OUT. 

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3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Bottom line through all your labyrinth of verbiage, there are critical shortages coming up for cobalt, lithium, copper and other essential battery inputs, and we have not even reached the take-off point for the EV world. We have produced about 3 to 5 million vehicles, and need about several HUNDRED million vehicles to satisfy the green dream. Prices of scarce inputs will skyrocket long before the scale-up is reached. Only a few wealthy folks will be driving these things.

 

But it is all a side-issue. Atmospheric CO2 climate change looks like a mirage, anyway.

Not just for EVs either, for wind turbines, solar panels, electronics of all kinds, alloys etc. 

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1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

You can always speculate about future technological change, but that works both ways, you can speculate about how cheap carbon capture will become, if you think that is important, and that will change your views on ICE.

True.

But I can guarantee that technology WILL change.  It is happening every day.

Carbon Capture is quite possible right now (if you don't mind using about 15-25% of a carbon-capturing thermal generator's output to support it).   I do hope technology can find a cheaper way.

 

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16 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

@Enthalpic as usual, your stupidity is duly noted. Meanwhile

 

77EEC3C1-AA39-4550-9EE5-90837DE9FB38.jpeg

 

 

^ Ward fantasy

reality:

Of course next Ward will say Obama isn't black.

 

13biden1-superJumbo.jpg

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1 hour ago, turbguy said:

True.

But I can guarantee that technology WILL change.  It is happening every day.

Carbon Capture is quite possible right now (if you don't mind using about 15-25% of a carbon-capturing thermal generator's output to support it).   I do hope technology can find a cheaper way.

 

If the new research on solar climate variables goes forward, we will not be worrying about atmospheric CO2 as a sinister factor.

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(edited)

38 minutes ago, Symmetry said:

 

^ Ward fantasy

reality:

Of course next Ward will say Obama isn't black.

 

13biden1-superJumbo.jpg

What's it like to go thru life with such an abysmally low intellect? Not that I'm interested in finding out you've accomplished this feat with drugs or alcohol, perhaps mommy dropped you on your head a lot? 

Meanwhile let's talk about Obama and Xiden shall we? 

Let’s Not Forget When Joe Biden Called Obama ‘Articulate’ And ‘Clean’ And Said It Was Taken Out Of Context

The former VP has a history of hiccups when it comes to discussing race.

There's more quotes, but stupid is as stupid does

Edited by Ward Smith
Added link for the Eejit
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Although I could be guilty of the practice myself, why does any good and extended conversation concerning the ACTUAL subject of this post eventually spin out of control to included highly non-related events.

Fact:  COVID-19 is real.

Fact: Joe Biden is the 46th President.

Fact: Joe Biden did not cause the Texas Freeze.

Fact: Donald Trump did not cause the Texas Freeze.

Fact: The regulation of the energy business in Texas was not properly prepared for the Texas Freeze

Fact: Lawyers in Texas will do quite well.

Fact: Wall Street will do quite well.

Fact: The news cycle has moved on.

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1 hour ago, turbguy said:

AND...

It appears Texas has a great chance of seeing rotating blackouts again this summer (and next, and next...)

https://www.powermag.com/ercot-warns-of-intensified-summer-supply-crunch/?itm_source=parsely-api

No wonder to me why Elon is building storage in Texas.   $$$$$$$$$$$!

Clipboard01.jpg

When you dig down, this does not look that dire. They are being very conservative about counting on wind and solar, but wind and solar often exceed expectations in the summer. Further, the February fiasco got the consumer's attention, so with just a little bit of advertizing, pre-planning,  and education, Texans should be able to shed load when requested to do so. I California, we managed to learn that in less than 48 hours, and Texans aren't dumb. The obvious actions are to directly cut back during the peak hours. The less obvious trick is to pre-cool your house before the  peak.

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8 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Our expectations have changed a lot.  In 2013, the Nissan Leaf was the best-selling EV, with more than 250,000 produced that year. It had a range of 75 miles. My 2014 BMW i3 had a range of 83 miles.

It took the Leaf a decade to reach half a million accumulative  in world wide sales, not sure that is something to brag about.

      waltz 

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