.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

46 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) told the Austin American Statesman that roughly 12,000 megawatts of Texas' wind generation capacity had been hampered as of Sunday due to frozen wind turbines. However, they also noted that unfrozen wind turbines are spinning at a higher rate than expected, helping to offset the losses.

ERCOT operates Texas' electric grid and manages the deregulated energy market for 75% of the state,

"This is a unique winter storm that's more widespread with lots of moisture in West Texas, where there's a lot of times not a lot of moisture," ERCOT senior director of system operations Dan Woodfin told the outlet. "It's certainly more than what we would typically assume."

It is estimated between 2.5 and 3.5 million people in Texas have been left without power amid the storm's frigid temperatures. An ERCOT spokesperson did not immediately return FOX Business' request for comment.

Assume = ass out of u and me..............dumbsh***

ERCOT:

ERrors C

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

ome from Obama Times.

If we just had PG&E instead of ERCOT, everything would be fine.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

My preference is that we use it as our first choice and only export when storage is full. 

We should convert all of our commercial transport systems currently running on Diesel fuel to CNG and LNG, instead of sending it abroad and importing vast amounts of middle distillate (i..e. Diesel & Jet Fuel)..... Pickens Plan.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

12 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Texas is currently encounter an unprecedented cold snap with record-breaking demand for electricity, and the system failed to meet the demand for several reasons.

The last time the ERCOT system saw unprecedented demand leading to rolling blackouts was in 2010, which was before wind power was much of a percentage.  So yeah, unprecedented demand can force rolling blackouts.

Aside of something that happened 10 years ago is not "unprecedented", which is a #green triggerword.

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

My god water vapor in gas how can that occur???? and icing a pipe up? In my youthful years i worked a pipe insulator in North Dakota..LOL much has changed since the 70's

Butane freezing at 0 you say....odd 

Sorry my error - liquifies. 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

10 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

I'm sorry, and I don't know what @NickW specialized in, but you're right in that natural gas doesn't freeze in natural conditions. However, if there were any actual oil people still left on this site, at least a few of them should be familiar with clathrates or hydrates. If that's what's going on in the pipelines that's a real mess indeed. In fact warming by 10 decrees C won't even do any good if they've got a hydrate problem. This is why methane needs to be dewatered in the first place for commercial use. That article was woefully lacking in anything resembling engineering or science answers.

The reports, one of which I posted earlier  were about freezing issues at gas plants. I assume by these they mean the plants which process raw gas. I would anticipate most issues are to do with the freezing up of external parts affecting supply but I am also aware that H20 wet raw gases can be problematic in cold climates. 

[NickW + 2,714]

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

You are so right: the methane clathrates are a class unto themselves. Common on the floor of the Gulf. If anything would mimic the seafloor conditions, it would be something like this polar vortex. 

I'm sure they add chemicals to prevent clathrate-formation within pipelines, but if they raised the pressure-head, that would potentially cause them to form. NickW would know more about this. 

One of the reasons they don't produce methane clathrates so much up in the frozen Bakken is because of the ~10-20% ethane in natural gas, along with some propane. These are larger and don't form the cage-like molecule with condensed water except at exceptionally high pressure and equally exceptionally low temperatures. 

Im not in this field. I had 5 years in oil and gas abut now work in rail

But I am savvy enough to know that ice freezes up working parts of which there many in a gas plant (valves, regulators, pressure releif vessels etc) 

The Texas low was -10 degrees C - a very hard frost

I suspect that at some Texas gas processing plants they were not adequately protected against this sort of weather event. 

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, LANDMAN X said:

Energy turbines frozen in Texas?   Explains Gerry's question on how did they lose 12 GW of power out of 24 GW capacity?  What about wind storms that literally blow out them?  This video was few years ago but scary as hell.  Brakes got out on slowing blades.

Windmoelle-vaelter.wmv

The brakes have failed on that. 

Good job wind never affects the  power lines that serve FF plant. 

[NickW + 2,714]

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

We must be doing something right in Illinois. Lots of wind turbines, imported electricity, old nuclear (subsidized), still some coal, propane. Not much natural gas turbines though, due to the nuclear and wind forces buying votes. We have plenty available

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/illinois

I would guess Illinois is better prepared for cold weather. 

Maybe Illinois has better interconnections which build in security. 

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, Robert Ziegler said:

Aside of something that happened 10 years ago is not "unprecedented", which is a #green triggerword.

The point here is how much do you spend to insure against 1 in 10/100/1000 year events? 

Do you double the cost of your networks to prevent 1 day blackout in 10 years? 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 minutes ago, NickW said:

The point here is how much do you spend to insure against 1 in 10/100/1000 year events? 

Do you double the cost of your networks to prevent 1 day blackout in 10 years? 

 

Well that depends on how many millions of people are going to be without heat in a life threatening cold snap.  People, especially old people living alone, can die in weather events like this one. 

I can't think of anyone who is against harnessing wind and solar power to supplement and eventually take over our entire energy needs, if possible, but there should be no rush past capabilities.  In one of the richest countries in the world, the power companies can afford to keep backups online.  Or maybe the correct way of saying it is they cannot afford not to.  Not yet.  And the green movement, while they are to be commended for moving us in that direction, need to take actual proven capabilities, financial realities and human frailties into consideration as well.

Privatization of power companies is a good thing, if it benefits the consumers and does not lead to brownouts and blackouts.  Unfortunately, with bonus incentives driven by share prices just like the rest of corporate America, I'm afraid community oversight is needed more than ever.  Before tragedies of loss of life and/or national defense make us wish we had.

[NickW + 2,714]

8 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well that depends on how many millions of people are going to be without heat in a life threatening cold snap.  People, especially old people living alone, can die in weather events like this one. 

I can't think of anyone who is against harnessing wind and solar power to supplement and eventually take over our entire energy needs, if possible, but there should be no rush past capabilities.  In one of the richest countries in the world, the power companies can afford to keep backups online.  Or maybe the correct way of saying it is they cannot afford not to.  Not yet.  And the green movement, while they are to be commended for moving us in that direction, need to take actual proven capabilities, financial realities and human frailties into consideration as well.

Privatization of power companies is a good thing, if it benefits the consumers and does not lead to brownouts and blackouts.  Unfortunately, with bonus incentives driven by share prices just like the rest of corporate America, I'm afraid community oversight is needed more than ever.  Before tragedies of loss of life and/or national defense make us wish we had.

I suspect the 'green movement' in Texas have been campaigning for years for better insulation of houses and support for low income households. In Texas insulation mostly protects the household from extreme hot weather but also provides protection in cold weather. . The financial benefits speak for themselves. 

If houses are built properly with decent insulation and glazing  standards then no one should be freezing as a result of a day or two long power cut as inconvenient as it is regards to daily life. 

As for private companies there are no incentives to prevent blackouts unless there are financial penalties. There is no money in providing multiple layers of back up systems unless regulations create penalties. I am fairly certain that electric supply contracts have clauses to protect the supplier from consumer litigation in the event of a blackout which in many cases could be a force majeure (act of god) claim. 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

I suspect the 'green movement' in Texas have been campaigning for years for better insulation of houses and support for low income households. In Texas insulation mostly protects the household from extreme hot weather but also provides protection in cold weather. . The financial benefits speak for themselves. 

If houses are built properly with decent insulation and glazing  standards then no one should be freezing as a result of a day or two long power cut as inconvenient as it is regards to daily life. 

As for private companies there are no incentives to prevent blackouts unless there are financial penalties. There is no money in providing multiple layers of back up systems unless regulations create penalties. I am fairly certain that electric supply contracts have clauses to protect the supplier from consumer litigation in the event of a blackout which in many cases could be a force majeure (act of god) claim. 

With green energy you will need a sounded backup network no matter what and that will be counted in the cost of green energy.

Energy price relates to cost, reliability relates to productivity. More expensive green energy simply push manufacturing out of your country and the countries who are using coal will burn more to fill the gap. And the politicians can proudly announce their states/countries are "cleaner". Even if you want to deal with climate changes, the answer still lay on cost and productivity and we are going in the most inefficient solution designed by stocks and politicians. Even if there is some good intention, it still can lead to bad consequences. You cannot fight climate change with expensive energy, starting with mining & chemical polluting to make more lithium batteries. I see it nowhere near the word "green" but sweep dirt under the carpet

[turbguy + 1,391]

I note that there is now zero interchange across any DC tie into ERCOT.  Seems either there's too much demand elsewhere  and nothing left over to import into ERCOT's grid, or these ties have forced outages.  And frequency time based electric clocks on ERCOT's system are running about 45 seconds (or maybe just cycles) behind proper time, due to consistent under-frequency "accumulation". 

Rotating distribution outages should only last an hour or less for wide swaths of residential customers.  I suspect that the distribution systems (and perhaps larger substations) themselves have taken a weather hit, such as failed transformers, lines pulled off poles, line faults and the like. Restorations to these "smaller" yet widerspread incidents can take many days.

Hopefully the main step-up transformers at plants are unaffected (cold conditions should be beneficial).  I you really want to knock-out a plant for the long term, THAT IS the "target" to take out.

Edited February 16, 2021 by turbguy

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

I suspect the 'green movement' in Texas have been campaigning for years for better insulation of houses and support for low income households. In Texas insulation mostly protects the household from extreme hot weather but also provides protection in cold weather. . The financial benefits speak for themselves. 

If houses are built properly with decent insulation and glazing  standards then no one should be freezing as a result of a day or two long power cut as inconvenient as it is regards to daily life. 

Texas is a big place. This weather is very unusual for Houston and San Antonio but Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene, Wichita Falls, Midland not uncommonly get down to zero for a night or two in the winter. And houses are like people: some are well-built and insulated against harm and others are not. In both cases, those less-well-built suffer the most damage. 

And no, the green movement hasn't paid a lot of mind to the status of insulation. The green movement has paid considerable attention to profit, market share, and very little else. 

I love Texas but what is happening now is a showcase in disgrace and humiliation for a state that is not well acquainted with those two emotional experiences. This catastrophe--and it is that--is a real-life laboratory experiment in hubris, pretending to pay homage to clean energy, ignoring their own guidelines. I'll explain. 

The Texas Railroad Commission has what they call statewide rules. Number 32 states that new wells must not vent natural gas for longer than 24 hours or flare longer than 10 days. The implication--not so tacit--is that if you can't get hooked up in that generous period of time, you apply for an extension and your claim had better be good. For years they adhered to Statewide Rule 32. And then they hit the Delaware Basin and discovered it to be full of oil but also humongous amounts of pure methane gas . . . so much that takeaway wouldn't start to handle it. Some of those operators vented and flared with impunity--even though the market was flooded. The nighttime images taken by orbiting satellites made their way globally via the internet and people began to compare the shale basin to how London looked at night. You would have thought that would do it. It didn't. The TRRC absolutely refused to do anything about it. At the same time, Texas was building out windmills in the once-infamous wind corridor, up to ten-thousand on some of the prettiest land in Texas, selling a great amount of energy to Florida via NextEra, using the rest--to the expense of a better system using natural gas, which again they had in excess. Then came those godawful solar panels, dotting the landscape. Gregg Abbot gets an award from a wind company and thinks it will help his political career. 

And now this. In a state that has vented and flared millions of dollars worth of natural gas each day for several years we have 4M lives--many of them elderly and frail--in jeopardy because they can't get the damn heat to come on. I worried about one of those people last night and prayed that she could stay warm enough not to die. If this storm, and what is happening in Texas, doesn't change Mr. Biden's mind about an abrupt change in the grid, then he's likely to create a rolling disaster of immense proportions. I'm not blaming this Texas disaster on the president, just urging him to look at what is happening in front of his lying eyes.

[NickW + 2,714]

9 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

With green energy you will need a sounded backup network no matter what and that will be counted in the cost of green energy.

Energy price relates to cost, reliability relates to productivity. More expensive green energy simply push manufacturing out of your country and the countries who are using coal will burn more to fill the gap. And the politicians can proudly announce their states/countries are "cleaner". Even if you want to deal with climate changes, the answer still lay on cost and productivity and we are going in the most inefficient solution designed by stocks and politicians. Even if there is some good intention, it still can lead to bad consequences. You cannot fight climate change with expensive energy, starting with mining & chemical polluting to make more lithium batteries. I see it nowhere near the word "green" but sweep dirt under the carpet

If you want to protect against rolling power cuts in all circumstances you need a sounded back up network whatever the fuel source. If your system is maxed out whether it be coal, gas, oil or nuclear if there is a trip in the transmission connection then someone is getting a blackout somewhere. If a Nuc trips out and shuts down you are looking at 10-14 days to get that back on line. 

I don't know how US utilities manage this. In the UK many large users are on part interruptible supplies which means they can be disconnected for short periods (large cold stores, centralised air con, some industrial processes). Also large numbers of emergency generators with companies / hospitals  can be fired up automatically to take the strain off the grid (they get a capacity payment for this). The diesel needs to be cycled through any way so might as well be used in this fashion and get a payment for it. This helps deal with the initial shortfall and provide back up power for  several hours / couple of days in regard to the generators. 

Like you I have major doubt about batteries although I see merit in repurposing redundant EV batteries for storage and grid stabilisation where they still have plenty of capacity. 

For grid storage there are some interesting developments. Saw this the other day using a fluid weighing 2.5x that of water 

Introduction (rheenergise.com)

 

[NickW + 2,714]

43 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Texas is a big place. This weather is very unusual for Houston and San Antonio but Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene, Wichita Falls, Midland not uncommonly get down to zero for a night or two in the winter. And houses are like people: some are well-built and insulated against harm and others are not. In both cases, those less-well-built suffer the most damage. 

And no, the green movement hasn't paid a lot of mind to the status of insulation. The green movement has paid considerable attention to profit, market share, and very little else. I

That's unfortunate. If your objectives are to cut carbon emissions start with the low hanging fruit and decent household insulation and weatherproofing has the fastest return on investment. Double benefit is it often helps the most vulnerable in society

Also spending the money on insulation puts the money back into the US economy as most of those products will be manufactured in the US. In contrast solar panels in most cases are made in China. 

[turbguy + 1,391]

I don't believe ERCOT system operators are getting any deserved rest. It appears some transmission lines have been forced out due to icing conditions.  The entire system is literally "hanging by a thread".

At least, a system collapse won't propagate into neighboring states.

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by turbguy

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

I suspect the 'green movement' in Texas have been campaigning for years for better insulation of houses and support for low income households. In Texas insulation mostly protects the household from extreme hot weather but also provides protection in cold weather. . The financial benefits speak for themselves. 

If houses are built properly with decent insulation and glazing  standards then no one should be freezing as a result of a day or two long power cut as inconvenient as it is regards to daily life. 

You are an educated idiot obviously. Many tens of thousands can't afford a "Newer House with decent insulation". They live in Trailer parks or Mobile Home estates from the 80's. Many here in Ft. Stockton live in very old plastered "stucco" houses. My guess is 100+ lost their lives due to the cold and crappy power grid. Still no power here, and not expected till tonight. 

[NickW + 2,714]

23 minutes ago, turbguy said:

I don't believe ERCOT system operators are getting any deserved rest. It appears some transmission lines have been forced out due to icing conditions.  The entire system is literally "hanging by a thread".

At least, a system collapse won't propagate into neighboring states.

 

Spoilsport.

On Oilprice.com the meme is to pin everything on wind / solar and conveniently ignore the other reports of transmission lines down and failures at gas plants due to icing. 

My Dads cousin was a senior manager in National Grid (UK operator) and visited the US on several exchange trips and was always amazed at the poor state of electricity transmission compared to Europe. 

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

You are an educated idiot obviously. Many tens of thousands can't afford a "Newer House with decent insulation". They live in Trailer parks or Mobile Home estates from the 80's. Many here in Ft. Stockton live in very old plastered "stucco" houses. My guess is 100+ lost their lives due to the cold and crappy power grid. Still no power here, and not expected till tonight. 

Perhaps thats where an interventionist approach of helping those people on the bottom rungs of society would help avoid these issues by addressing substandard housing. 

How about a levy on oil and gas operators to fund an insulation programme for low / lower middle income households?😁

As you say crappy power grid (as per my previous post) is responsible for much of this. 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

8 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

You are an educated idiot obviously. Many tens of thousands can't afford a "Newer House with decent insulation". They live in Trailer parks or Mobile Home estates from the 80's. Many here in Ft. Stockton live in very old plastered "stucco" houses. My guess is 100+ lost their lives due to the cold and crappy power grid. Still no power here, and not expected till tonight. 

Thats got all the hallmarks of a transmission fault and not a rolling power cut due to capacity constraints.

[turbguy + 1,391]

2 minutes ago, NickW said:

 

How about a levy on oil and gas operators to fund an insulation programme for low / lower middle income households?😁

 

 

It ain't easy to add insulation to a double-wide.

[NickW + 2,714]

Just now, turbguy said:

It ain't easy to add insulation to a double-wide.

Whats a double wide? 

You'll have to excuse my ignorance of US housing terminology

[turbguy + 1,391]

Just now, NickW said:

Thats got all the hallmarks of a transmission fault and not a rolling power cut due to capacity constraints.

Nah...more than likely a somewhat-localized distribution system problem for days long outages.

 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

8 hours ago, Robert Ziegler said:

Aside of something that happened 10 years ago is not "unprecedented", which is a #green triggerword.

I am quite happy to use a different  word. The current weather event is considerably worse than the one in 2011 that caused rolling blackouts. It is also worse than the one in 1989 that caused rolling blackouts. It is probably not the very worst Texas cold weather event in recorded history, since on average the temperature has been increasing. This differs from last summer's Southwest heat wave, which was the worst in recorded history.