DR

Texans forced to have rolling black outs. Not from downed power line , but because the wind energy turbines are frozen.

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19 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

By contrast, you, ERCOT, and (almost) everybody else in the universe treat NG plants as a reliable source of electricity that can respond rapidly to demand. The NG plants did just that from the time the ice storm hit up until they froze up. ERCOT, you, and (almost) everybody else were unpleasantly surprised when they froze up, and the only choice was to impose rolling blackouts.

The difference is that, with methanol infusion into the production stream in proportion to the amount of the water cut, and with electric mufflers on Christmas tree pipes, NG plants are absolutely reliable. If . . .

If NG utility plants aren't once again rendered subservient to trendy energy supply sources. In the history of baseball, there have been only a few pinch hitters of note. Hitting a baseball is a perishable talent and if you don't hit baseballs you lose your skill set. The same is true of energy. As wind took over the grid, lots of very, very expensive NG utility plants became peaker plants, more or less. They also became much less profitable because they were subservient. 

Well, they're about to become dominant again, at least in the state of Texas. And they'll have everything they need for the vilest winter weather Mother Nature can throw at Texas. 

I know you're nonplussed at the stubborn refusal of those of us who steadfastly maintain this stance. I'm equally nonplussed by those who think we're somehow creating planetary climate change with natural gas. 

I profit from wind, but I don't much believe in it as a reliable, sustainable source of energy for the globe. I also profit from NG, but I absolutely believe in it as the energy savior of the whole world. 

I know you addressed your concerns to Ward Smith, but he sometimes takes long naps and the rest of us have to fill in for him. 😊

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28 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

How is this relevant to anything? ERCOT, you, and everybody else in the universe agree that wind power is variable. You appear to be attempting to project that since 20 GW of wind power was available in the prior week, it should therefore have been available when it was needed. It was not available, and nobody was counting on it's being available during the critical period when demand peaked while the NG generators were failing due to lack of winterization of the generators and their NG supplies.  Wind power was within about 200 MW of its projected minimum.

By contrast, you, ERCOT, and (almost) everybody else in the universe treat NG plants as a reliable source of electricity that can respond rapidly to demand. The NG plants did just that from the time the ice storm hit up until they froze up. ERCOT, you, and (almost) everybody else were unpleasantly surprised when they froze up, and the only choice was to impose rolling blackouts.

So your bottom line is that the natural gas generators are the bedrock supplier of electricity, wind generation is the fluff in the system....we always knew that in our hearts but were tongue-tied by the fad of political correctness imposed by hysterical global warmers.

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2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

So your bottom line is that the natural gas generators are the bedrock supplier of electricity, wind generation is the fluff in the system....we always knew that in our hearts but were tongue-tied by the fad of political correctness imposed by hysterical global warmers.

That's priceless!

And so right!

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Hey, either you are ready to roll (which it appears nat gas WAS, for a short while, until about 1:00 AM in February 15th), or you are not.

If you can't get the fuel to your "bedrock" generation, who cares about the wind contribution?  You are going to suffer, somewhere in the system.

When wind is available, it's cheap!  Isn't that what a free market DEMANDS!?!?

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Alex Jones on public access TV in Austin was "interesting" - Alex Jones on  Austin Community Access Television (especially if you were drunk or stoned, which was how I watched DVDs a friend of mine recorded on VCRs years before). Alex Jones these days is all about getting people to buy merch on his store and making advertisement money (not hard to do via revenue sharing). The problem, is, when you're an actor with the same role every day, and you do not change roles (I personally love improv comedy for this reason, it's like adult playing. think like a kid), then you literally become the "entertainment personality". your own personality changes because your (brain) associates it too strongly with your self-identity (ego) or livelihood. Just my two cents. It's easier to dehumanize other people (or whole groups of people) especially via things like radio, tv, or the internet because your mirror neurons can't perceive the other side of how we communicate. We are all monkey see/monkey do in some respect. 

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On 2/15/2021 at 2:56 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Lng by itself is under containment is far below subzero temperatures is it not, what above ground fluids would be used?....and how would they freeze while moving. I will be the first to say i have no clues...but to that point i can only see water freezing in that temperature zone...are those pipes not moving fluid during heavy processing?

I ask merely because of soo much false information is being put out..it is very hard to determine the veracity of anything.

I think I can shed some light on this or at least point you in the right direction.  When gas encounters a pressure drop (usually in a control valve), the temperature also drops.  This is referred to as the JT Effect (Joule-Thompson: a 100 psi pressure drop results in a temperature drop of 6-8 degrees F). At the same time, liquids can drop out of natural gas after a pressure drop.  So with a drop in temp, these liquids can freeze and cause valves to fail.  This is a normal thing that operators have to deal with on a consistent basis in the winter, usually with pipe insulation, heat tape, methane injection or catalytic heaters.  This storm just made the problem so much worse because operators weren't prepared for it to be this cold.  Attached is a picture of a frozen valve.  The valve body is completely covered in ice.  Hopefully that helps!   

image.png

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21 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Pop quiz. How long is a "day" on Venus? 

Slightly longer than its year

Whats the surface temperature on the dark side?

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19 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Why don't you guys get a room? 

No, really, start a climate thread and move everything there instead of muddying up this thread? I promise I might come and visit 😊

The reality is that its Ecocharger-bot that keeps posting stuff relating to solar cycles to try and refute AGW theory. 

Oh and various people 'nudge nudge' for blaming greenies for convincing Texans winter was cancelled😀

Otherwise I agree - Renewable / Environmental threads should be restricted to the renewables / Technology / Geopolitics sections. 

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2 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

The difference is that, with methanol infusion into the production stream in proportion to the amount of the water cut, and with electric mufflers on Christmas tree pipes, NG plants are absolutely reliable. If . . .

If NG utility plants aren't once again rendered subservient to trendy energy supply sources. In the history of baseball, there have been only a few pinch hitters of note. Hitting a baseball is a perishable talent and if you don't hit baseballs you lose your skill set. The same is true of energy. As wind took over the grid, lots of very, very expensive NG utility plants became peaker plants, more or less. They also became much less profitable because they were subservient. 

Well, they're about to become dominant again, at least in the state of Texas. And they'll have everything they need for the vilest winter weather Mother Nature can throw at Texas. 

I know you're nonplussed at the stubborn refusal of those of us who steadfastly maintain this stance. I'm equally nonplussed by those who think we're somehow creating planetary climate change with natural gas. 

I profit from wind, but I don't much believe in it as a reliable, sustainable source of energy for the globe. I also profit from NG, but I absolutely believe in it as the energy savior of the whole world. 

I know you addressed your concerns to Ward Smith, but he sometimes takes long naps and the rest of us have to fill in for him. 😊

Just think of all that gas wind freed up for LNG export. About 20% of US exports just from Texan wind. 

They should stick a couple of wind turbines on the Texan flag. 

 

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Mr. Turbguy

"... who cares about the wind generation"?

You should.

As should I and certainly the millions of Texans who have suffered greatly through this event.

The talk of wind providing ~40% of Texas' power days earlier while providing  virtually nothing in the time of critical need gets right to the heart of the present situation.

For those touting the fact  that the drop in wind contribution pales in comparison to natgas' numbers, or was within the forecast performance (?)  ...  that is both factually  correct and wildly off the main point of concern.

 

This ferocious struggle for control of the Narrative is unfolding all across the  global information sphere as witnessed  by the Guardian's 2/22 article "Australia first casualty of  big blackout lie" ... an article so bereft of honest reporting that George Orwell must be spinning in his grave.

Absent 'out of market' influences (we are forbidden to use the reviled, albeit truthful, terms such as 'subsidies/preferential treatment'), wind and solar would never have achieved the market penetration we see today.

 

The enraged pushback against a repeat of these past few weeks will obviously include identifying those responsible.

That wind power is now deemed vulnerable - as evidenced by the hysterical tone of the Guardian - is a long overdue opportunity for misinformed  advocates to be seen as being  the havoc wreaking agents that they have truly been for decades.

 

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7 hours ago, maxonhudson said:

 Capitalism at its finest? Welcome to the fully unregulated energy market.  Texas is indeed the wild west.

Paying wholesale spot prices works well most of the time but you really need a mechanism to flick the switch on the consumer unit when prices rise above a certain amount and then sit there under 3 duvets by candlelight. 

BAU in that scenario is a fast track to the poor house. 

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22 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

"More than 2.5 degrees by 2600", it's right there in black and white. 

Read the abstract, it is right there, you cannot miss it,

https://nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3

In the Responses section below the article the author discusses the retraction issues and shows how they were not relevant to the article. It was weird that she was not given the opportunity to refute the criticisms before the article was retracted by the journal, not by the author. Note, this article passed peer review before publication, so there is no justification for retracting on the basis of some work published AFTER this article was published. That is retrospective review, which is entirely out of order for any journal.

The concerns most people have are over what happens this century. The above might concern Buck Rogers

We are looking at a temperature rise of up to 4 Deg C this century. 

Whatever moderating effect this GSM predicted event has it will be swamped by AGW effects 

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1 minute ago, NickW said:

The concerns most people have are over what happens this century. The above might concern Buck Rogers

We are looking at a temperature rise of up to 4 Deg C this century. 

Whatever moderating effect this GSM predicted event has it will be swamped by AGW effects 

We have two different models, we will see which one works....that is how science progresses.

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Just now, Ecocharger said:

We have two different models, we will see which one works....that is how science progresses.

Can you point me to the part of her research that covers radiative forcings if her model is a climate model? 

 

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2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

So your bottom line is that the natural gas generators are the bedrock supplier of electricity, wind generation is the fluff in the system....we always knew that in our hearts but were tongue-tied by the fad of political correctness imposed by hysterical global warmers.

In countries that are awash with gas there maybe some merit to what you say. 

However if you are reliant on energy imports then wind and solar (and other renewables where available) offer an opportunity to reduce that dependence. 

Within 24 hours there was talk of Texas temporarily banning LNG exports. Right - well thats encouraging for energy importers increasingly reliant on imported gas. 

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(edited)

52 minutes ago, NickW said:

Can you point me to the part of her research that covers radiative forcings if her model is a climate model? 

 

I gave you the link. look for yourself. It is a temperature model, related to solar variables. 97% explanatory power.

Edited by Ecocharger

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36 minutes ago, NickW said:

In countries that are awash with gas there maybe some merit to what you say. 

However if you are reliant on energy imports then wind and solar (and other renewables where available) offer an opportunity to reduce that dependence. 

Within 24 hours there was talk of Texas temporarily banning LNG exports. Right - well thats encouraging for energy importers increasingly reliant on imported gas. 

Wind and solar are not imported products?  Many countries do not produce the components. What is your point?

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

Mr. Turbguy

"... who cares about the wind generation"?

You should.

As should I and certainly the millions of Texans who have suffered greatly through this event.

I really don't get where you guys are coming from.

This electrical supply crisis had a CAUSE(S).

The crisis occurred at about 1:00 AM on February 15th.

Wind did not loose much generation.

Nat gas generation PLUMMETED, and they were doing great beforehand.

Nat gas was the largest contributor to this particular crisis, by almost 2 orders of magnitude.

WHAT HAPPENED and WHY?

The answers ain't purely political.

The answers ain't purely from the market.

The answers ain't purely from policies.

The answers are not subject to uninformed finger pointing.

The answers just ARE.

THEN you can take corrective actions, NOT before.

Christ! Do I have to go into a K-T analysis about this?

 

 

Edited by turbguy
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On 2/22/2021 at 1:09 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Can a ND farm boy call his fields My Back Yard....asking for a friend of course. 

Now I do believe the frost line in TX would be 12", as to burying pipe you would be correct. I have no background hence the question what am I missing.

 

Pipeline Safety standards are 3 feet.  But even complete compliance with that would not solve the problem of the Christmas tree where the well comes out of the ground or valve  pressure drops or bends in pipes which produce pressure drops that drop temps to below freezing.

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9 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Pipeline Safety standards are 3 feet.  But even complete compliance with that would not solve the problem of the Christmas tree where the well comes out of the ground or valve  pressure drops or bends in pipes which produce pressure drops that drop temps to below freezing.

Does the industry use nat gas to operate the controls and control valves in these locations?

That's not a great idea if you're "instrument air" freezes up.

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4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

How is this relevant to anything? ERCOT, you, and everybody else in the universe agree that wind power is variable. You appear to be attempting to project that since 20 GW of wind power was available in the prior week, it should therefore have been available when it was needed. It was not available, and nobody was counting on it's being available during the critical period when demand peaked while the NG generators were failing due to lack of winterization of the generators and their NG supplies.  Wind power was within about 200 MW of its projected minimum.

By contrast, you, ERCOT, and (almost) everybody else in the universe treat NG plants as a reliable source of electricity that can respond rapidly to demand. The NG plants did just that from the time the ice storm hit up until they froze up. ERCOT, you, and (almost) everybody else were unpleasantly surprised when they froze up, and the only choice was to impose rolling blackouts.

No Dan it doesn't work like that. You're blaming gas which was producing 100% more power than the week before, for not continuing to do so indefinitely. All told, gas production went up 450% over the period. But gas is the bad guy?? My analogy about the doctor applies. 

@Gerry Maddoux might appreciate this. My neighbor and good friend is also a cardiologist. He was doing his residency at a VA hospital. He worked some exceedingly complex cases and while his "boss", the attending physician treated work at the VA as a 9 to 5 job, my friend was foolishly worried about his patients and their survival. So after going 40 some hours with no sleep, he finally passed out, exhausted. Some GS 15 asshole came in for a regularly scheduled treatment and was all bent out of shape that he had to wait because my friend was catching up on necessary sleep. Never mind the dozen lives he'd saved, nor the heroic work he'd put in. The general or admiral was peeved about being put out. Needless to say, he didn't stay with the "fine" Veterans Administration system, much to the joy of the thousands of patients and co workers who respect the hell out of him in his private practice.  

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1 hour ago, NickW said:

Can you point me to the part of her research that covers radiative forcings if her model is a climate model? 

 

Dude, start another thread to talk about this, please! 

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7 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Dude, start another thread to talk about this, please! 

DITTO!

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2 hours ago, JackRackham1285 said:

Attached is a picture of a frozen valve.  The valve body is completely covered in ice.  Hopefully that helps!   

image.png

Moisture is drawn to cold, like a glass of ice tea sweats in the summertime humid days. That valve is cold but operating or the frost would be melting.  This is still a functioning valve!!

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