DR

Texans forced to have rolling black outs. Not from downed power line , but because the wind energy turbines are frozen.

Recommended Posts

34 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

We have had them in OR for yrs, greatest revenue generator Washington Co has ever seen, and in MPLS Mn, speaking to MPLS the citizens revolted and finally won a major victory. Cars were considerer personal property and guess what...taking a photo is against the law on or in personal property....or at least it was. I am quite sure that has been amended....lmao

https://ttlc.intuit.com/community/tax-credits-deductions/discussion/yes-a-car-is-considered-personal-property-so-are-boats/01/398634#M50424

https://www.lawyers.com/legal-info/personal-injury/types-of-personal-injury-claims/videotaping-and-photography-on-private-property.html

The Red Light cameras that went into effect here years ago ended leading over 20 bribery and corruption charges.  Also, they did nothing for safety, according to studies.  These speed cameras will start near schools and parks, assuredly to be expanded.  My rhetorical question is will they be turned off after school activities have ended or curfew is reached? Surely they will be paused.  Naive of me to even think that is a possibility.

     waltz 

  • Haha 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

C'mon man, Chicago needs the revenue as too many fleeing. Personally I would challenge any "speed camera ticket" in court. Hard to keep calibration like a cruisers radar gun. So what happens in Chicago, Peoria is to follow soon after. 

Quite honestly just another reason to not take any jobs in the city and further motivation to get further away.  Whether that be out near my parents in DuPage county or across state line to Indiana.  Long term one of the smaller towns in Boyaca, Colombia is probably where I will end up.

     waltz 

added:  forgot, about ten years ago when they added the red light cameras in North Riverside, just south of me, I got a $100 ticket for not coming to a complete stop while turning right.  I drive a stick so while coasting in neutral I have plenty of time to look left before going into first. Come to find out that within the first month that same camera got my next door neighbors to the north as well as the neighborhoods next door to them.  They generate a boat load of cash from first timers but after that everyone waits for a few extra seconds.

Edited by waltz
  • Like 3
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, waltz said:

The Red Light cameras that went into effect here years ago ended leading over 20 bribery and corruption charges.  Also, they did nothing for safety, according to studies.  These speed cameras will start near schools and parks, assuredly to be expanded.  My rhetorical question is will they be turned off after school activities have ended or curfew is reached? Surely they will be paused.  Naive of me to even think that is a possibility.

     waltz 

Take a tip from a wize old man father of four....register you car in your wifes name and hers in yours.....Get a speeding photo radar tickect go to court and state...waznt me your highness....end of story they have the pic of a female in a males car....Make no mistakes red faced and your innocent.

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Take a tip from a wize old man father of four....register you car in your wifes name and hers in yours.....Get a speeding photo radar tickect go to court and state...waznt me your highness....end of story they have the pic of a female in a males car....Make no mistakes red faced and your innocent.

I’m single, not sure that your solution wouldn’t be more problematic.  At the very least certainly more expensive.😁

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

7 hours ago, turbguy said:

Do not ignore the waste heat generated from gearing/bearing losses. That could easily be about 10 KW per blade for larger wind machines.

Two points, first that "waste heat" only gets produced while the turbine is spinning. In fact, one kind of "winterizing" involves heating the gear oil in the turbines so they don't freeze up due to the extreme high viscosity at frigid temps. That means you're not "gaining" 10kw you're losing it to lower the viscosity by a factor of ten for every 15C you raise the temperature. 

Second, note the 1-10KW per meter squared (from the research gate paper pics). These 300 meter tall turbines have a lot of square meters to contend with on the blades, so that 10KW will cover, what 2% of the blade? 

Edited by Ward Smith
Clarity
  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

7 hours ago, waltz said:

That may have been too much of an “inside” joke.  Google “Mrs. O’Leary’s cow”.  Sounds like your distant grandfather would do just fine today and we could use any economic conservatives who can put up with the lunacy.  Speed cameras go into affect tomorrow, fines start at just six mph over.  For “SAFETY”, of course.

I got the O'Leary reference, that was the great fire. My ancestor passed on in 1867, the following year. He had lived long enough to regret selling that farmland which became downtown Chicago.

Bottom line....land value goes up, not down.

Sad that folks are leaving Chicago. Where else can you find something like the Chicago Symphony Orchestra or the Chicago Institute of Art?  There is nothing comparable. When we visited in 2011, we stayed at a hotel right on the main downtown street, we walked around at night, no problem. Things have gotten bad in just a few short years.

Edited by Ecocharger
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 2/28/2021 at 2:04 PM, NickW said:

Unlikely to happen

There has been a lot of investment in grid scale battery storage to support grid frequency. Longer term this will be a 2nd life use for old EV batteries. 

Plus pump storage and interconnection. Europe is now interconnected to North Africa, West Asia (turkey), and Russia. The latter two have loads of Hydro capacity. 

Also loads of emergency gensets tied into  the system on short term operating reserve arrangements

This interactive map shows how much interconnector there is. 

electricityMap | Live CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

Too much interconnection increases, not decreases risk. Several countries not into the "renewables" (which they are not) craze have installed grid isolation devices and Phase shifters to make sure their grid does not get taken down when the "renewables" get the frequency down a few Hz.... for the big crash. And I bet that Europe will see am major blackout within less than half a decade.... Starting in Germany. What I hear is that the 50Hz can't be kept any more, even electric clocks depending on constant frequency are running behind already.

  • Like 2
  • Great Response! 2
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Sad that folks are leaving Chicago. Where else can you find something like the Chicago Symphony Orchestra or the Chicago Institute of Art?  There is nothing comparable. When we visited in 2011, we stayed at a hotel right on the main downtown street, we walked around at night, no problem. Things have gotten bad in just a few short years.

If you haven't read The Devil in the White City, by Erik Larson, it would be great for someone with your family legacy in Chicago. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 2/28/2021 at 12:37 PM, Boat said:

To be clear why I wanted to say was Iowa has 44% of their electricity in renewables. Texas is in the low 20’s. The point was the turbines in Iowa are weatherized and don’t cause death and economic calamity with every big storm. 
It’s true Texas has more turbines and a poor decision not to weatherize them caused death and economic calamity. Glad I could clear that up for you. 
Now before anyone of you rises on my list of,...most likely not to google... try a google on winterization pkgs in Iowa or any northern area for wind turbines. What does GE offer, what do other leading wind manufacturers offer. Isn’t this question burning in your mind? Did it occurred to you to look? Why not? 

What I read from your table is that Texans need to use more gas for home heating. There is nothing more inefficient that having a multi-kW glowing wire heating the air in a forced air heating system.... And burning gas to make that electricity, instead of using it directly. As I said before, every house should have a natural gas connection.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

8 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Two points, first that "waste heat" only gets produced while the turbine is spinning. In fact, one kind of "winterizing" involves heating the gear oil in the turbines so they don't freeze up due to the extreme high viscosity at frigid temps. That means you're not "gaining" 10kw you're losing it to lower the viscosity by a factor of ten for every 15C you raise the temperature. 

Second, note the 1-10KW per meter squared (from the research gate paper pics). These 300 meter tall turbines have a lot of square meters to contend with on the blades, so that 10KW will cover, what 2% of the blade? 

Yup, the losses are only available when she's turning, otherwise you gotta supplement.  And it may not be enough, either, but it's right there, free for the taking. Kinda just like how wind energy works in the first place.

Maybe spent nuclear fuel embedded in the blades??

Edited by turbguy
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^

Lots of theories out there regarding the Giant Texas Freeze of 2021. Incidentally, that's the topic of this thread. 

Most of course talk about the consensus view that global anthropomorphic climate change--global warming--via fossil fuels caused this. 

But something that has been pointed out here before--a strange solar shift--might be equally alluring. Global cooling, anyone?

The # of sunspots/solar storms has been declining: from 50,000 down to 50. Then in 2019, the sun was blank 77% of the time; in 2020, 76%.

When the sun goes blank and coronal holes appear in the equatorial sun, there are more earthquakes and volcanos on earth. The occurrence of both has gone on a bender lately. 

Then these things happen, the Jet Stream loses its circular, busily organized integrity . . . and becomes wavy and disorganized, as if confused. The Jet Stream is all that keeps the Polar Ice Cap airstream circling like sheep in one direction, around and around the cap. 

So was the Giant Texas Freeze of 2021 due to global warming or global cooling. That is the question. If you read NASA, there's no doubt it's global warming caused by greenhouse gases. If you read NOAA, there's a more-than-subtle hint that it's due to global cooling--due to a drastic reduction in violent solar activity along with a disruption of the Jet Stream due to a weakening of the magnetosphere, which in turn is due to those dratted coronal holes. Lots of smart people in both NASA and NOAA. Who is right?

It may be that, as a planet, we've all learned to shake our heads in the same direction. After all, we have powerful forces marshaling our thoughts--any articulate shyster can get on the Internet and convince us of about anything. This powerful force can affect our buying habits, and we may just be buying into the biggest hoax of all time. There's an awful lot of bravado out there: a little knowledge is a dangerous thing and believe me, my knowledge on this subject is miniature. But I'm working on it. And please don't get me wrong, we should reduce carbon emissions as much as possible. I submit that if one counted the carbon emissions from the California wildfires and the state's emergency importation of electricity from gas-fired plants in Wyoming, it would be the worst U.S. offender. 

The point I suppose I'm making is that each geographic region has its strengths and weaknesses. California is a perfect place to try going all-renewable with solar/wind farms feeding lithium-ion battery units. But it's not going to work to reduce wildfires until they bury their electric lines--many are 75 years old and are threaded through old-growth forests. On the other hand, Texas is a perfect place to use strictly fossil fuels, selling its wind energy to Florida. In order to receive those juicy incentives for solar/wind, Texas had to close six (6) coal-fired plants in the two years leading up to the giant freeze. Coal plants are capable of storing energy: could have used some of that. 

We have developed such a bad case of global groupthink that we are now caught in a pandemic of fear . . . vaccinated against by the thought that if we switch completely to renewables we'll stave off whatever the sun has in mind. We have learned to applaud--as one--the dramatic buildout in electric vehicles in China while ignoring the fact that they're charging them in most cases using low-grade coal utility plants . . . little honeypot plants scattered by the thousands throughout China. We're having people talk about covering the North Sea and the Sahara with wind and solar, respectively. People on this board want the Texans to learn lessons from Canadians. The 100,000 acres of greenhouses growing Europe's vegetables and fruit in Almeria, Spain will not do well if more volcanoes--influenced by coronal holes in the equatorial sun--follow Mt. Etna's suit.

Alas, we are headed down a rabbit-hole, as the experts all like to say, but it may be the wrong rabbit-hole. In fact, it may be that we're all subscribing to a Ludic Fallacy. 

  • Like 1
  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

5 hours ago, Robert Ziegler said:

Too much interconnection increases, not decreases risk. Several countries not into the "renewables" (which they are not) craze have installed grid isolation devices and Phase shifters to make sure their grid does not get taken down when the "renewables" get the frequency down a few Hz.... for the big crash. And I bet that Europe will see am major blackout within less than half a decade.... Starting in Germany. What I hear is that the 50Hz can't be kept any more, even electric clocks depending on constant frequency are running behind already.

Grid isolation devices don't prevent neighbouring countries from helping each other out. As interconnections spread across time zones then peak load time gets spread out and allows respective assistance. it also spreads out across different weather systems which affects both demand and supply if using wind, solar and to a degree Hydro. 

Likewise latitude spread of interconnections means the grid is more likely to contain a mix of regions which have summer or winter peak demand. This means more likelihood of mutual assistance where summer peak demand regions  export to winter peak demand areas. 

Not heard anything about Germany and can't find anything on the Net. The widescale investment in grid scale battery will support frequency levels 

I'm sure parts of Europe will have the occasional black out due to transmission issues. I bet its nothing like the scale of the Texas cascade disaster. 

 

This link shows the European transmission system linked into the whole of North Africa, West Asia and Russia as far as the Urals. 

Grid Map (entsoe.eu)

Edited by NickW
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Robert Ziegler said:

What I read from your table is that Texans need to use more gas for home heating. There is nothing more inefficient that having a multi-kW glowing wire heating the air in a forced air heating system.... And burning gas to make that electricity, instead of using it directly. As I said before, every house should have a natural gas connection.

Goes hand in hand with investing in better insulation. That works both ways and keeps heat out in the summer. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Robert Ziegler said:

Too much interconnection increases, not decreases risk. Several countries not into the "renewables" (which they are not) craze have installed grid isolation devices and Phase shifters to make sure their grid does not get taken down when the "renewables" get the frequency down a few Hz.... for the big crash. And I bet that Europe will see am major blackout within less than half a decade.... Starting in Germany. What I hear is that the 50Hz can't be kept any more, even electric clocks depending on constant frequency are running behind already.

Here you go. You can watch European grid frequency in real time. 

Online-measurement of the mains frequency

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 "Texas [power cuts..] because the wind energy turbines are frozen. - no, false statement. Use browser.

  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, turbguy said:

Yup, the losses are only available when she's turning, otherwise you gotta supplement.  And it may not be enough, either, but it's right there, free for the taking. Kinda just like how wind energy works in the first place.

Maybe spent nuclear fuel embedded in the blades??

A novel idea.  But one which may also give new fuel to NIMBY emotions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, jobs flyer said:

Nice post. This post was very useful for me. I got many information from this post. Thanks for share this post with us. I have noted some important points in my notes book. All the information in this post are good, I shared this post with my friends. Keep sharing this type of posts with us. Your all posts are good and readable . click here

With that grammar and repetition, I smell spam (not the canned stuff from Hormel).

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 3/1/2021 at 11:29 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

^

Lots of theories out there regarding the Giant Texas Freeze of 2021. Incidentally, that's the topic of this thread. 

Most of course talk about the consensus view that global anthropomorphic climate change--global warming--via fossil fuels caused this. 

But something that has been pointed out here before--a strange solar shift--might be equally alluring. Global cooling, anyone?

The # of sunspots/solar storms has been declining: from 50,000 down to 50. Then in 2019, the sun was blank 77% of the time; in 2020, 76%.

When the sun goes blank and coronal holes appear in the equatorial sun, there are more earthquakes and volcanos on earth. The occurrence of both has gone on a bender lately. 

Then these things happen, the Jet Stream loses its circular, busily organized integrity . . . and becomes wavy and disorganized, as if confused. The Jet Stream is all that keeps the Polar Ice Cap airstream circling like sheep in one direction, around and around the cap. 

So was the Giant Texas Freeze of 2021 due to global warming or global cooling. That is the question. If you read NASA, there's no doubt it's global warming caused by greenhouse gases. If you read NOAA, there's a more-than-subtle hint that it's due to global cooling--due to a drastic reduction in violent solar activity along with a disruption of the Jet Stream due to a weakening of the magnetosphere, which in turn is due to those dratted coronal holes. Lots of smart people in both NASA and NOAA. Who is right?

It may be that, as a planet, we've all learned to shake our heads in the same direction. After all, we have powerful forces marshaling our thoughts--any articulate shyster can get on the Internet and convince us of about anything. This powerful force can affect our buying habits, and we may just be buying into the biggest hoax of all time. There's an awful lot of bravado out there: a little knowledge is a dangerous thing and believe me, my knowledge on this subject is miniature. But I'm working on it. And please don't get me wrong, we should reduce carbon emissions as much as possible. I submit that if one counted the carbon emissions from the California wildfires and the state's emergency importation of electricity from gas-fired plants in Wyoming, it would be the worst U.S. offender. 

The point I suppose I'm making is that each geographic region has its strengths and weaknesses. California is a perfect place to try going all-renewable with solar/wind farms feeding lithium-ion battery units. But it's not going to work to reduce wildfires until they bury their electric lines--many are 75 years old and are threaded through old-growth forests. On the other hand, Texas is a perfect place to use strictly fossil fuels, selling its wind energy to Florida. In order to receive those juicy incentives for solar/wind, Texas had to close six (6) coal-fired plants in the two years leading up to the giant freeze. Coal plants are capable of storing energy: could have used some of that. 

We have developed such a bad case of global groupthink that we are now caught in a pandemic of fear . . . vaccinated against by the thought that if we switch completely to renewables we'll stave off whatever the sun has in mind. We have learned to applaud--as one--the dramatic buildout in electric vehicles in China while ignoring the fact that they're charging them in most cases using low-grade coal utility plants . . . little honeypot plants scattered by the thousands throughout China. We're having people talk about covering the North Sea and the Sahara with wind and solar, respectively. People on this board want the Texans to learn lessons from Canadians. The 100,000 acres of greenhouses growing Europe's vegetables and fruit in Almeria, Spain will not do well if more volcanoes--influenced by coronal holes in the equatorial sun--follow Mt. Etna's suit.

Alas, we are headed down a rabbit-hole, as the experts all like to say, but it may be the wrong rabbit-hole. In fact, it may be that we're all subscribing to a Ludic Fallacy. 

"The biggest hoax of all time"? Without a doubt.

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 2/27/2021 at 11:04 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Hmmm, but practically, that would turn Chicago's Black and Hispanic neighborhoods into war zones, and the Left, together with their tool BLM, would wail to the heavens that is was simply the height of racism.  The mob with the Democrat Machine used to rule Chicago; Now I'd say the drug lords/gangs with the Democrat Machine rules Chicago.  Those Dems use the tools available to them!  :)  A cleanout is not going to happen any time soon as long as the Democrats rule, and it would take a long time to right the ship under Republican leadership, for all the same reasons.  Having said that, the time is ripe for Republicans: State debt, mismanagement of Chicago, crime/murder rates in Chicago that never seem to go down, Madigan finally getting thrown out (and hopefully convicted by the FBI), and Illinoisan's general displeasure with the goings on of big government.

One can hope.  Illinois, south of Jolliet or thereabouts, is a great and beautiful state, with pristine agriculture and a great work ethic.

 

This reminds me of this from 1982: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows/304465/

^ From the originators of NYC's Broken Windows policing policy. I grew up during it. It worked for reducing crime, but had all sorts of other unintended consequences. It's better to not repeat the past but learn from it nand improve it.

The national guard isn't the answer, figuring out how to revitalize those areas is so that there is jobs is. There is certainly ingredients on how to do that everywhere. Just look at how many places have either gentrified or collapsed in the last 12 years or the last 20 years. What patterns do you see? 

Chicago/Cook County has tough gun laws (I don't really care about guns in rural areas, but in urban areas with crime, proliferation of guns just leads to escalation by gangs). The only problem is that Indiana, which is extremely close, had always had non-strict gun laws and it's easy to import guns from there. I wonder if there should be a "build a wall" movement (well, I would use something like synthetic aperture radar and millimeter wave imaging)  between Gary and Chicago. We'll make it a big beautiful invisible digital wall. Over time, social media became an organizing force for angry teenagers stuck in communities (and in angry echo chambers where the recommendation algorithms computed a nonnegative factorization problem and connected these folks with other gangbangers) w/o any jobs amplified the effect of guns and the homicide rate. I think being more aggressive in modernizing the failed experiments from the war on drugs, especially criminal justice reform, will help. 

It's similar to the US and Mexico. Mexico has strict gun laws, but most weapons are simply smuggled from the US and used to cause turf wars especially in Mexican border cities. Guns for Drugs. I worked for a while in Mexico City and it wasn't like that at all there.

Same thing in the past in Washington DC and Northern Virginia. Of course, now, Amazon is moving to NoVA, making it the new Seattle, except for corporate friendly tax laws and (being strategically) close to the federal government (did I mentioned Bezos is a genius at capitalism?) So all the crime isn't in these urban areas, but if you drive from DC through the mountains into Western Virginia, into Eastern Pennsylvania or Western Ohio, you'll see entire towns with buildings and farmhouses falling apart (this reminds me of Detroit around 2008, except parts of Detroit are now revitalized) and the opioid epidemic everywhere in rural areas (Pittsburgh is the major exception here - their economy is arguably where the future is in advanced manufacturing and automation - advanced robotics). 

In the end there has to be jobs created. It won't be the same jobs as in the past. Machines already do those jobs. But many useful skills and pragmatic trades are very much in short supply. 

Edited by surrept33

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

"The biggest hoax of all time"? Without a doubt.

Without a doubt to what level of uncertainty? Do you have a replicable model with code and data? These can be plug and played into any standard data assimilation metamodel. This is how science in some fields has changed so that instead of wasting time/effort running one model, you an run n^n models where n is information theoretic (for example, most climate models, solar dynamics models, plasma physics, are all doing 'some form' of dynamic 3d fluid dynamics + some perturbations of maxwell's equations) you can run in parallel on supercomputers. The hope with quantum information sciences, one can run n^n^n^n.. (usually n is a number, but the number doesn't matter) more sophisticated models but those are still on their way ;)

Noastradius was one of the bigger hoaxes of all time. 

If QAnon spreads internationally (it looks it is), it will be one of the larger hoaxes of all time. 

If the (majority of) climate scientists are correct, the best course of action is to think like someone in the actuarial sciences (the people who are qualified to write insurance products or the tax products if you prefer). How do you separate out facts from counterfactual evidence (or alt-facts)? Stochastic calculus helps with this, but most people are not very good at it.  How do you take a insurance policy, and then take insurance policies against that insurance policy, and then policies against those policies? In financial mathematics, is is not unlike a volatility smile, what you really are paying money is to prevent tail risk, and then a higher order set of risks, including taking out insurance that your assumption of risk was wrong (in statistical physics terms, this is not like a viscosity solution of a jump diffusion process).

Climate change doesn't fall under either of those categories. The large number of models in for example, the IPCC integrated assessment models are scientists who have examined different aspects of the climate from very different perspectives (with what looks like ot me, uncertainty, error modeling, even things like numerical analysis painstakingly done) . If one model is falsifying empirical models (if it were true) that can be clearly observed directly, it is most likely erroneous.

This all depends on your philosophy of science and the scientific method of course. In physics, especially theoretical physics, this varies widely. Take something like String Theory or a decent amount of cosmology. It has clear underdetermination relative to empirical testing, at least of anything we can build in the near future, but it's led to much innovation as the ideas got transputed across fields and led to virtuous cycles (say like enumerative combinatorics, areas of algebraic geometry in pure math or computer science). That is the unity of science. 

 

  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/1/2021 at 6:51 PM, Dan Warnick said:

A novel idea.  But one which may also give new fuel to NIMBY emotions.

NIMBY is terrible (and I prefer a more YIMBY-approach myself). One of the reasons things are so expensive to build in the United States is NIMBY-ism and too restrictive eminent domain. 

As is usual, nothing is black and white but really a spectrum of policies. We built the transcontinental railroads and the interstate highways in another era. These days, people in San Francisco prevent "manhattanizing" the town so they can see their beautiful shadows (literally the sunset) even though from an environmental perspective, SF is prefect for passive/heating cooling so it's probably where you want more dense buildings (instead some people commute from Contra Costa county, hours away). 

People in central California made the high speed rail extremely expensive because of eminent domain. Sometimes right of way is needed to build infrastructure. People can be compensated at higher than market prices if need be, but instead expensive lawsuit occur. In Texas the same thing, except the legislate prevented cities from annexation neighboring towns depriving them from valuable taxes in a state with no income tax, and infrastructure started withering as a result. As a result, Texas towns became sprawlier and less livable as exurbs started forming, where it is WAY more expensive to build al the utilities you need out to formally rural areas, not to mention the environmental damage. It's almost as if people didn't learn from the same mistakes as for example, greater Chicagoland. 

Edited by surrept33

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

Take something like String Theory

The usual gobbledygook I've come to expect from you. Rather than quote the whole mess, let's just focus on string theory. Last I checked, which admittedly was over a decade back, there were ten competing string "theories". Like climate science, they were all unprovable, un-falsifiable and essentially useless. Like Hawking who discards the idea of a creator because that requires faith, substituting the canard that there's an infinite number of highly complex universes like this one that completely and randomly pop into and out of existence, because that certainly doesn't require any suspension of disbelief to get behind… 🙄

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

The usual gobbledygook I've come to expect from you. Rather than quote the whole mess, let's just focus on string theory. Last I checked, which admittedly was over a decade back, there were ten competing string "theories". Like climate science, they were all unprovable, un-falsifiable and essentially useless. Like Hawking who discards the idea of a creator because that requires faith, substituting the canard that there's an infinite number of highly complex universes like this one that completely and randomly pop into and out of existence, because that certainly doesn't require any suspension of disbelief to get behind… 🙄

It is not a comment about string theory specifically, but the "scientific method" as it relates to different fields (in the end it is all about resource allocation, but what's the resource in question? Keep in mind some fields are very capital efficient than other fields because they can lever or create capital, while others are not, like the construction of the Superconducting Super Collider played out in Texas a few decades ago). I was comparing and contrasting atmospheric physics and string theory. Falsification in the popperian sense isn't often even the criterion in question in many fields (what's interesting these days is can a digital twin mimic increasingly realistic physics? it's more surprising and widely applicable than you think).

In Atmospheric physics there is lot of empirical confirmation in the microphysical and macrophysical senses with the accumulation of larger batteries of sensors and fluid dynamics/heat transport models to make sense of human activity vs physical climate-related statistical  variation, very tangible things because the number of sensors and the number of types of models have exploded, as have the ability to concurrently run and collaborate on how to most efficiently allocate resources (computational power - keep in mind many "supercomputers" have become hybrid and are made very energy efficient and power efficient, even in what information they compute via massive parallelization). You can perturb the space of models (ablation) to add or remove all sorts of other model phenomenon to see what happens, which is what the IPCC does to rigorously reduce uncertainty. What's changed over time is how continuously many (but not all) models get updated and integrated. Now, it's _all of the time_ because the models tend to have become more and more open sourced over the years and there is a increase in data sharing and cross organization collaboration. People have realized that the earth is the commons. It's like a river two countries share, except we all share it. 

String theory is not 10 theories. The number of theories is not relevant. Maybe you are talking about the dimensionality (one must be careful with words because the concept of a dimension is overloaded based on context) in supersymmetry theory (10) or M-theory (11)? it's about theory dualities, which is very useful cognitive tool in pretty much every field, including reasoning between fields. In addition, compactification of dimensionality (say you have too much fidelity of arbitrary data, how do you compress those into a point and keep properties of that theory faithful relative to other theories? typically this is done via topology). Note that we have not "seen" a molecule either, but chemistry often works until it doesn't. Most people have not seen "germs", but germ theory explains a lot until it doesn't. 

The crux of string theory is not hard to understand, and actually very easy if you understand group (galois and lie) or category theory from pure math well, or if you learned any classical physical theory like a gauge theory.   These are all methodologies to make it easier to reason about unification (or non-coupling) from different perspectives systematically, which historically exploiting relativistic quantum field theories led to most of modern technology, especially in semiconductors, but still required hacks and a lot of cumbersome calculations. 

Suspension of disbelief is matterful depending on what you know (relative to experimentally confirmed evidence) about aspects of nature that do not relate to everyday human experience (most notably relativistic quantum physics, but also anything bigger or smaller than our decartian view). I'd say in the near future we'll have more immersive devices (via a11y and XR technologies) to let people "thicken" the rectlinear viewport of the environment around them (vs current generation devices like phones or computers), but to me, understanding the connective tissues at the nexus of power and energy are quite interesting from a information sciences point of view (where a more abstract energy integral is often talked about). It's all about about controlled jargonification: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontology_(information_science) where instead of a lexicon, you learn a universal personal thesaurus to thesaurus translator. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.