DR

Texans forced to have rolling black outs. Not from downed power line , but because the wind energy turbines are frozen.

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Please quit emphasizing California's tiny rolling blackouts while ignoring the massive ones in Texas. Yes both occurred, Both were due to unprecedented exceptional weather events. Both could have been managed better. In hindsight, both could have been prevented with a fairly small amount of foresight and planning. But the causes were different, and the Texas blackout were much more severe by any measure, with more than 100 times as many customer-hours of blackout. The proximate cause of the Texas blackouts was freeze-off of the NG power supply (with a prior cause of over-agressive cowboy emphasis on free markets and minimized regulation). The proximate cause of the California blackouts was loss of two NG power plants (with a prior cause of over-aggressive greenie retirement of NG plants).

Mostly by sheer luck, California has an easy path to recovery, as we almost had enough power and we now know how to fix it. By contrast, Texas does not yet have a simple solution to their 100-times-worse problem.

California still several a really big problems, and I won't complain if you mention them or even if you blame our mismanagement of them on greenies or libtards. However,  rolling blackouts are either a complete non-problem or a minor problem. Our big problems are wildfire management, water management, and air pollution.

Your thoughts, https://calmatters.org/environment/2020/08/california-2020-rolling-blackouts-explainer/

One basic question to start, why is California so short on power? A 30% undercut is rather significant.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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18 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

One basic question to start, why is California so short on power? A 30% undercut is rather significant.

 

Perhaps it is all the illegal immigrants, running air conditioners full blast while charging their Teslas?

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14 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Your thoughts, https://calmatters.org/environment/2020/08/california-2020-rolling-blackouts-explainer/

One basic question to start, why is California so short on power? A 30% undercut is rather significant.

Unrelated to the thread, different problems, different state.

I understand that this forum will enjoy mocking a blue state when discussing a red state problem.  Red oil price losers love to mock the winners, and employ "what about" illogical arguments such as this.

 

 

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1 minute ago, turbguy said:

Perhaps it is all the illegal immigrants, running air conditioners full blast while charging their Teslas?

No, it's all the espresso machines at the Starbuck's and the heaters for the hot tubs.

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2 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Perhaps it is all the illegal immigrants, running air conditioners full blast while charging their Teslas?

If it wasn't for those damn immigrants I would be able to afford a Tesla!

 

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(edited)

2 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

No, it's all the espresso machines at the Starbuck's and the heaters for the hot tubs.

I personally like my tub hot, but the air cool, so I run the air condition and tub heater at the same time...

That's mostly a joke, but I do feel bad when I use the oven during the summer with the A/C on.

Edited by Symmetry

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On 3/14/2021 at 11:19 AM, turbguy said:

Yup. One of the factors in this event was increased demand, which is a function of population growth. 

Yup, Increased storage of dry nat gas can be highly beneficial.

Yup.  Fossil generation is going to be required for at least 2 decades.

And, yup, renewables will continue to penetrate in Texas,

Yeah, pretty much this. Renewables and storage are just going to get cheaper (worldwide), if nothing else because of economies of scale, and regulations related to decarbonization. It's going to balloon in the next 15 years, I think, we have barely seen anything yet.

 

Just look at lithium battery production for example (which will help both distributed grids with EV cars and grid storage).  Many countries have already announced ICE bans in the future (California one of them, along with PV mandates on all new construction. this will need a lot of grid and microgrid spend).

EU, as part of the European Green Deal, is about to go on a building spree to meet decarbonization targets.

1592784040_ScreenShot2021-03-16at4_27_56PM.thumb.png.2f2f2825d26077b7431bc076306e2bde.png

One of the historic bottlenecks, cobalt, is probably not going to be the bottleneck forever as it gets phased out:

227980687_ScreenShot2021-03-16at4_26_42PM.png.159944f4a413d7df709e656757f3b352.png

Here is how much cobalt is being used these days.

NMC622 is already in a lot of EV installs in the US, 811 is being introduced into the market, 955 (9 parts nicklel, 0.5 parts cobalt will probably by 2025). 

image.png.788135975b2225383924315ab232d631.png

 

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(edited)

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Great article that Mr. Warnick posted and equally important commentary that you added, Coffeeguyzz. As usual, you offered your commonsense, workaday knowledge to a complex problem. 

As prelude, I make my income from oil & gas. Years ago I sold transmission right-of-way to a large wind farm. I've regretted it since, mainly because it runs against my grain--it is one ugly son-of-a-buck. 

But to be the devil's advocate, let's just muse for a moment that all the wind greenies are right: the only way to save the planet is by subsidizing/incentivizing/handing out free money to the wind energy billionaires until every wind corridor in America is dotted with windmills. In the process, Wyoming, which is as the article states already producing 15X the energy it needs, becomes the "Electricity State," rather than the Cowboy State. Electric lines are stretched along the Union Pacific ROW all the way from the Laramie Gangplank to Sacramento--at the Gangplank there's room only for I-80, the railroad, and electric lines. So all throughout the wind corridor of the central portion of the United States are constructed additional power lines threading their way from the hundreds of thousands of wind turbines to all points east and west. I mean, it's a maze coming out of a destroyed landscape, an awful distortion of some once-beautiful landscape.  

But what if they're right? What if this horrible disfigurement of America results in so much green energy that it powers the whole country? In the process, of course, it shuts down the shale basins, the source of America's voluminous natural gas, but what if this is a good thing, forcing countries to which America exports LNG to actually erect their own wind farms? What if in the areas that are more suitable, solar farms are erected instead? Say massive solar farms along with wind farms in the Sahara, or the Negev? The world might look funny from up above but what if all those greenhouse gases plummet and California cools off and the wildfires stop and the air turns clear and all the asthma goes away and people are happy and the omni-mood skyrockets because everyone had a part in saving the planet?

If you pour enough money into almost any endeavor, no matter how outrageous, it picks up enough momentum to change the world. So what if in ten years we're living in a world full of wind machines and solar farms, quadrupling the electricity we use now in the demand of EV's to be charged, the all-electric homes to be cooled and heated, and also workplaces? It's dystopian, sure, but in America, at least, we're importing what oil and gas we absolutely have to have in order to produce a few plastics and the weather hasn't changed because of all the wind farms. After all, the Sooners are dead already, the Boomers are going soon, and why don't we just assume that the greenies are right? On this forum, at least, they seem so damn confident! To me that's annoying, but to opportunists there's money blowing in from the southwest.

I mean, what if? That's what Mr. Biden and Mr. Buffett and Mr. Anschutz and Mr. Musk are banking on. It's a global experiment that has been so effectively inculcated into so many receptive minds that no one but old people with a selfish interest in oil & gas doubt it. It has become the Universal Idea, the Grand Plan, the Utopia. Disenfranchised oil & gas people are signing on by the hundreds. I don't personally think it will work, but even I have to ask the question. What if?

One "what if" we know for certain... if ICR's are banished by government decree (and that is the only way they could disappear), and only EV's are permitted to drive the highways of the nation, the demand for scarce material inputs into EV batteries will push up the price tags on these glorified golf-carts beyond the reach of most Americans, and force the vast majority of folks into sharing space in electrified mass transit electro-trains and electro-buses. Someone tell me how that makes for a higher standard of life for the poor masses in this or any other country. Before we swallow this castor oil and wave goodbye to the American dream of self-independent transportation, we better make darn sure that the sales-people for climate alarmism know what they are talking about.   And they apparently do not.

Edited by Ecocharger
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1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

One "what if" we know for certain... if ICR's are banished by government decree (and that is the only way they could disappear), and only EV's are permitted to drive the highways of the nation, the demand for scarce material inputs into EV batteries will push up the price tags on these glorified golf-carts beyond the reach of most Americans, and force the vast majority of folks into sharing space in electrified mass transit electro-trains and electro-buses. Someone tell me how that makes for a higher standard of life for the poor masses in this or any other country. Before we swallow this castor oil and wave goodbye to the American dream of self-independent transportation, we better make darn sure that the sales-people for climate alarmism know what they are talking about.   And they apparently do not.

Have you driven or ridden in a Tesla?

Believe me, it is NOT a "glorified golf-cart".

Yes, they are expensive. 

Yes they can be an inconvenience to recharge for long trips. 

Yes, they cannot heat or cool the interior without effecting range. 

Yes, they can fulfill the needs of a large portion of many driver's requirements. 

That said, a Tesla may not fulfill yours.

 

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28 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Have you driven or ridden in a Tesla?

Believe me, it is NOT a "glorified golf-cart".

Yes, they are expensive. 

Yes they can be an inconvenience to recharge for long trips. 

Yes, they cannot heat or cool the interior without effecting range. 

Yes, they can fulfill the needs of a large portion of many driver's requirements. 

That said, a Tesla may not fulfill yours.

 

There is a difference between expensive and prohibitively expensive. We have seen the "expensive" form already, that is, too expensive for a poor person to get one either fresh off the line or from a second-hand lot. Yet to come is the "prohibitively expensive" level, when the battery inputs get priced out of range for the average consumer. Getting past the hundred million production level will show us that.

Edited by Ecocharger

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1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

One "what if" we know for certain... if ICR's are banished by government decree (and that is the only way they could disappear), and only EV's are permitted to drive the highways of the nation, the demand for scarce material inputs into EV batteries will push up the price tags on these glorified golf-carts beyond the reach of most Americans, and force the vast majority of folks into sharing space in electrified mass transit electro-trains and electro-buses. Someone tell me how that makes for a higher standard of life for the poor masses in this or any other country. Before we swallow this castor oil and wave goodbye to the American dream of self-independent transportation, we better make darn sure that the sales-people for climate alarmism know what they are talking about.   And they apparently do not.

Consider the Tesla Model 3, which is priced at $37,000. There is no stock ICE of a lower price that can beat this model 3 in the quarter mile or 0-60 mph. Try it yourself. pull up next to one at a stop light and rev your engine. When the light turns green, it will leave you behind. It also handles better than just about any ICE at or below (or well above) its price range, because it has AWD and a very low center of mass. (and a great suspension). Now that your ICE has been sufficiently humiliated, go try to find an ICE that costs less than the $142,000 model S plaid+ that can beat it. 0-60 in 1.99 seconds, 200 mph top speed, 1020 HP. Let's not talk about the Tesla Roadster, due next year.

Now back to reality. most consumers don't need to go 0-60 that quickly, they just want to go to grandma's and to the grocery store in the equivalent of a $20,000 Corolla. Tesla is not down there yet because they are production-limited and selling every Model 3 and Model Y they can make in their maxxed-out factories.   Wait a couple of years, and their Chinese factory will probably start making a $20,000 model.   With the exception of the cost of the battery, an EV is a much cheaper and simpler vehicle than an ICE. Battery prices are still dropping like crazy. Tesla now makes the low-end versions of the Model Y with LFP batteries: no Cobalt required.

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2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

There is a difference between expensive and prohibitively expensive. We have seen the "expensive" form already, that is, too expensive for a poor person to get one either fresh off the line or from a second-hand lot. Yet to come is the "prohibitively expensive" level, when the battery inputs get priced out of range for the average consumer. Getting past the hundred million production level will show us that.

You could be right.  Expressing your opinion is your freedom.

We shall see.

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3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

There is a difference between expensive and prohibitively expensive. We have seen the "expensive" form already, that is, too expensive for a poor person to get one either fresh off the line or from a second-hand lot. Yet to come is the "prohibitively expensive" level, when the battery inputs get priced out of range for the average consumer. Getting past the hundred million production level will show us that.

Getting past the 100 million level will be a challenge, since the total world yearly vehicle production is now about 92 million/yr.

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If Tesla can maintain 50% of its market share just two yrs ago it will be amazing. Automotive platforms run in 4 year cycles. Change is inevitable.

Tesla’s U.S. Model 3 Sales Drop 25% In Q4 – Peak Model 3 Came And Went

https://www.torquenews.com/1083/tesla-s-us-model-3-sales-drop-25-q4-peak-model-3-came-and-went

Tesla’s Stock Tumbles Amid Sales Worries and Market Volatility

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/business/tesla-stock-price.html

Tesla losing ground in Europe should trouble investors, strategist says

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/tesla-losing-ground-in-europe-should-trouble-investors-strategist-says.html

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(edited)

43 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

There is a difference between expensive and prohibitively expensive. We have seen the "expensive" form already, that is, too expensive for a poor person to get one either fresh off the line or from a second-hand lot. Yet to come is the "prohibitively expensive" level, when the battery inputs get priced out of range for the average consumer. Getting past the hundred million production level will show us that.

Tesla is going to come out with a $25000 car soon. There are plenty of <$10000 EV cars in China (though you may not want such a car unless you live in a city).

BEVs are fundamentally far more mechanically simpler than ICE, a lot more of the cost is the batteries, but it isn't likely going to be constrained by cobalt at all. 

Keep in mind due to the phasing out of diesel in Europe, this effect is about to happen particularly with European car manufacturers.

 

EV models by car manufacturer:

1941125704_ScreenShot2021-03-16at10_24_54PM.thumb.png.4f10d47a846b384b0b551e6aab5cea9b.png

So I think we've just seen the very beginning of a changeover. 

Everyone knows those manufacturers will need more batteries, which is also why the EU is ratcheting up battery manufacturing and tax incentives for lithium and nickel. The supply o these will likely have to double every 3-4 years to meet demand. 

The two fastest growing markets for both automobiles and energy, China and India have both either announced ICE bans in the future (India) or seriously considering it (China) in order to improve air quality. These all have an effect on the long term calculus of what car manufacturers bet on. 

Edited by surrept33

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4 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

If Tesla can maintain 50% of its market share just two yrs ago it will be amazing. Automotive platforms run in 4 year cycles. Change is inevitable.

Tesla’s U.S. Model 3 Sales Drop 25% In Q4 – Peak Model 3 Came And Went

https://www.torquenews.com/1083/tesla-s-us-model-3-sales-drop-25-q4-peak-model-3-came-and-went

Tesla’s Stock Tumbles Amid Sales Worries and Market Volatility

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/business/tesla-stock-price.html

Tesla losing ground in Europe should trouble investors, strategist says

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/tesla-losing-ground-in-europe-should-trouble-investors-strategist-says.html

The Tesla haters publish these stories every quarter. Tesla's sales are cyclical for a reason, and will remain so until the two big new factories (Texas and Germany)  come online. Tesla has a customer for every car that comes off the production line, and the customer gets an e-mail with that car's VIN when the car is produced (no dealers, remember?) For the first month of the quarter, the Fremont factory produces European Teslas (different charger plug)  for European customers. These are then shipped to Europe, which takes awhile, so there are no sales in the first month. the next two months the factory builds the US Teslas and delivers them quickly. When the German factory (Giga Berlin) comes online, it will handle Europe and this cycle will (mostly) end.

In addition, a lot of Tesla customers waited for the higher-priced and bigger Model Y, and purchased it instead of a model 3. The demand for the model 3 is (probably) still there, but there was not enough production capacity for it and the Model Y at the same time.

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(edited)

When Tesla start providing factory-direct rebates, let me know.  

Then I'll know they are producing more than the market will bear, just like Ford GM, or Chrysler.

Chrysler invents it.

Ford brings it to market first.

GM makes at actually work.

Edited by turbguy

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42 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Consider the Tesla Model 3, which is priced at $37,000. There is no stock ICE of a lower price that can beat this model 3 in the quarter mile or 0-60 mph. Try it yourself. pull up next to one at a stop light and rev your engine. When the light turns green, it will leave you behind. It also handles better than just about any ICE at or below (or well above) its price range, because it has AWD and a very low center of mass. (and a great suspension). Now that your ICE has been sufficiently humiliated, go try to find an ICE that costs less than the $142,000 model S plaid+ that can beat it. 0-60 in 1.99 seconds, 200 mph top speed, 1020 HP. Let's not talk about the Tesla Roadster, due next year.

Now back to reality. most consumers don't need to go 0-60 that quickly, they just want to go to grandma's and to the grocery store in the equivalent of a $20,000 Corolla. Tesla is not down there yet because they are production-limited and selling every Model 3 and Model Y they can make in their maxxed-out factories.   Wait a couple of years, and their Chinese factory will probably start making a $20,000 model.   With the exception of the cost of the battery, an EV is a much cheaper and simpler vehicle than an ICE. Battery prices are still dropping like crazy. Tesla now makes the low-end versions of the Model Y with LFP batteries: no Cobalt required.

What are production numbers now? The total worldwide is about 3 to 5 million? That is just a drop in the bucket. We use how many hundred millions of ICR vehicles per year, quite a few. Replacing those with EV's will put huge demands on limited scarce battery inputs, and put them out of reach for most people.

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17 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

Tesla is going to come out with a $25000 car soon. There are plenty of <$10000 EV cars in China (though you may not want such a car unless you live in a city).

BEVs are fundamentally far more mechanically simpler than ICE, a lot more of the cost is the batteries, but it isn't likely going to be constrained by cobalt at all. 

Keep in mind due to the phasing out of diesel in Europe, this effect is about to happen particularly with European car manufacturers.

 

EV models by car manufacturer:

1941125704_ScreenShot2021-03-16at10_24_54PM.thumb.png.4f10d47a846b384b0b551e6aab5cea9b.png

So I think we've just seen the very beginning of a changeover. 

Everyone knows those manufacturers will need more batteries, which is also why the EU is ratcheting up battery manufacturing and tax incentives for lithium and nickel. The supply o these will likely have to double every 3-4 years to meet demand. 

The two fastest growing markets for both automobiles and energy, China and India have both either announced ICE bans in the future (India) or seriously considering it (China) in order to improve air quality. These all have an effect on the long term calculus of what car manufacturers bet on. 

When you start replacing hundreds of millions of vehicles, the scarce battery inputs will skyrocket in price.....not realistic.

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43 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Getting past the 100 million level will be a challenge, since the total world yearly vehicle production is now about 92 million/yr.

Replacing hundreds of millions of existing vehicles will be too much of a challenge.

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(edited)

3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

When you start replacing hundreds of millions of vehicles, the scarce battery inputs will skyrocket in price.....not realistic.

The've started already...

Edited by turbguy

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41 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

When you start replacing hundreds of millions of vehicles, the scarce battery inputs will skyrocket in price.....not realistic.

Well, then that incentivizes people to exploit up new supply, which there is plenty, especially in the US, it's just been long underexploited. I think there will be a push for fast track permitting, and there is also very attractive (US treasury rates) title17 loans not unlike Tesla got before 2008 that probably will get expanded from manufacturing to mining/extraction: https://www.energy.gov/lpo/title-xvii

There has been an ongoing massive effort by the USGS lately to focus on surveying these "critical minerals":

https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/emri/#3.19/35.74/-90.69

The materials they were evaluating were (just in phase1) were: aluminum, cobalt, graphite, lithium, niobium, platinum group elements, rare earth elements, tantalum, tin, titanium, and tungsten.

But these surveys should be invaluable in the future, since the methods they are employing are much more modern than traditional data: https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/earthmri/science/why-earth-mri-needed?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

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12 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:
14 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Great article that Mr. Warnick posted and equally important commentary that you added, Coffeeguyzz. As usual, you offered your commonsense, workaday knowledge to a complex problem. 

As prelude, I make my income from oil & gas. Years ago I sold transmission right-of-way to a large wind farm. I've regretted it since, mainly because it runs against my grain--it is one ugly son-of-a-buck. 

But to be the devil's advocate, let's just muse for a moment that all the wind greenies are right: the only way to save the planet is by subsidizing/incentivizing/handing out free money to the wind energy billionaires until every wind corridor in America is dotted with windmills. In the process, Wyoming, which is as the article states already producing 15X the energy it needs, becomes the "Electricity State," rather than the Cowboy State. Electric lines are stretched along the Union Pacific ROW all the way from the Laramie Gangplank to Sacramento--at the Gangplank there's room only for I-80, the railroad, and electric lines. So all throughout the wind corridor of the central portion of the United States are constructed additional power lines threading their way from the hundreds of thousands of wind turbines to all points east and west. I mean, it's a maze coming out of a destroyed landscape, an awful distortion of some once-beautiful landscape.  

But what if they're right? What if this horrible disfigurement of America results in so much green energy that it powers the whole country? In the process, of course, it shuts down the shale basins, the source of America's voluminous natural gas, but what if this is a good thing, forcing countries to which America exports LNG to actually erect their own wind farms? What if in the areas that are more suitable, solar farms are erected instead? Say massive solar farms along with wind farms in the Sahara, or the Negev? The world might look funny from up above but what if all those greenhouse gases plummet and California cools off and the wildfires stop and the air turns clear and all the asthma goes away and people are happy and the omni-mood skyrockets because everyone had a part in saving the planet?

If you pour enough money into almost any endeavor, no matter how outrageous, it picks up enough momentum to change the world. So what if in ten years we're living in a world full of wind machines and solar farms, quadrupling the electricity we use now in the demand of EV's to be charged, the all-electric homes to be cooled and heated, and also workplaces? It's dystopian, sure, but in America, at least, we're importing what oil and gas we absolutely have to have in order to produce a few plastics and the weather hasn't changed because of all the wind farms. After all, the Sooners are dead already, the Boomers are going soon, and why don't we just assume that the greenies are right? On this forum, at least, they seem so damn confident! To me that's annoying, but to opportunists there's money blowing in from the southwest.

I mean, what if? That's what Mr. Biden and Mr. Buffett and Mr. Anschutz and Mr. Musk are banking on. It's a global experiment that has been so effectively inculcated into so many receptive minds that no one but old people with a selfish interest in oil & gas doubt it. It has become the Universal Idea, the Grand Plan, the Utopia. Disenfranchised oil & gas people are signing on by the hundreds. I don't personally think it will work, but even I have to ask the question. What if?

Expand  

What if? That is a very interesting question. Mr Maddoux we only need to look back to where this all started. I only bring this up due to the fact last night I watched a old movie named Rain Man,a very old movie with Cruise and Hoffman.

Has anyone mentioned the electricity going out to the gas pumps because of the pumps going down for lack of electricity?   They used to be gas driven ones but were told by regulations to GOTO the nice green ones driven by the juice that went down because of the down green wind mills and no solar?  Just wondering...Gerry is right on about our need for NG and oil......

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9 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Your thoughts, https://calmatters.org/environment/2020/08/california-2020-rolling-blackouts-explainer/

One basic question to start, why is California so short on power? A 30% undercut is rather significant.

Note that your reference is an after-action report written less than a week after the rolling blackouts, so it was preliminary. It also manages to regurgitate just about all of the various party lines of all of the players, since they did not have time for an actual in-depth analysis.

Unlike Texas, California is part of the multistate western grid. We buy 30% of our electricity from out of sate because the other states produce and sell it in a market. Some of that out-of-state power became unavailable when the extreme weather event hit the entire southwest. The paper addresses this issue by saying that California utilities must contract for more "baseline" power (i.e. contracted for months in advance at a higher rate) from out-of-state instead of spot-market power. My guess is that this will work about as well as the spot-market power in Texas last month: your suppliers cannot deliver what they cannot produce, no matter what the contract says. The situation would be similar in some respects to the blackouts in 2001 caused by Enron playing games with the electricity market in California.

Fortunately, the paper also calls for delaying the retirement of some NG plants and continuing to build out solar and big batteries. This works for CA because our extremes are all in the summer, as opposed to Texas, which has both extreme summer events and extreme winter events. The same geography that gives us nasty wildfires and the nation's worst pollution also gives us very mild winters for the bulk of the population. Solar works just fine here in the summer.

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Mr. Landman

That is one of the several questions that have yet to be answered.

The fact that several gas-fueled power plants started going offline shortly after midnight on Monday, the 15th, has been confirmed by ERCOT's released data.

The WHY has yet to be identified and/or published.

With strong suspicion being placed on inadequate supply, the question then arises of WHY insufficient gas made it to the plants.

While wellhead freezoffs would have played a role, it seems somewhat improbable that such a large supply curtailment would arise from that cause.

Clathrate build up in pipelines may have restricted flow, but - again - that would be a somewhat dubious reason to lose so much supply.

The extreme cold certainly drew down line pressure as gas went for heating purposes ... so it is possible that all 3 reasons just stated may have been major contributors to gas-starved plants being shut down, but I think not.

Several recent statements by officials from the utility commission and ERCOT expressed surprise that 'exempt-from-power-cutoff' status was neither sought nor given from the ERCOT folks to ... some ... in the natgas industry.

Pure speculation on my part, but I believe that electricity shut off to the gas line compressors may be revealed to have played a huge role in the massive grid shut downs.

It does not take many big compressors to stop working on big transmission lines for pressure to drop quickly and steeply.

As you have pointed out (and I mentioned way upthread), compressors routinely used to be powered by the gas right at hand but "pollution" concerns have been mandating the use of electric drive compressors.

If this 'circular firing squad' scenario turns out to be the case, embarrassed officials may release the findings in the small print 5 years from now.

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