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Biden about to face first real test. Russia building up military on Ukraine border.

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On 4/4/2021 at 4:50 PM, Boat said:

I disagree. Americans do not shy from war if the reasons are sound. What they get pissed at is occupation with no real plan. As the body count rises and hundreds of billions are spent this is understandable frustration. The military cannot stop nuclear Armageddon. Only the fear of death and mutually ensured destruction is the deturant. 
Our leadership has been weak, indecisive and our policies stupid for the most part. Biden can hardly do worse. 

I disagree with your assessment.  

U.S. does not want involvement in useless wars that are not in our country's interest.

We can't be the world's policemen anymore. 

The U.S. should not lose one single life or spend billions to protect a corrupt Ukraine government.  

Germany and France diss U.S. natural gas and pay Russia $ Billions for their natural gas.  They then expect U.S. to fight their wars for them. 

Similar to the Obama/Biden Administration, Germany and France will probably sign another worthless "Coalition of the Willing" like they did in Syria.  Just like Syria they will not put any "skin in the game".  

or

Like Secretary of State Hillary did with the UN.  Hillary had the U.N. Security Council approve NATO attack Libya and kill khadafi because Libya was not renewing oil contracts with Europe's NATO countries.   The U.S. supplied 95% of the missiles, bombs, air power and the associated  Billions in cost.  Khadafi was killed, Hillary cackled like a hyena and Libya has been a mess ever since. Hillary quote, "We came , we saw , he died (laughter) ". 

The U.N. charter prohibits it from getting involved in a country's internal domestic conflicts.  Hillary doesn't care, she did it anyway. The 2016 election was coming.  She wanted to blow something up. 

What's most likely ? Joe will let Russia walk in and take Ukraine just like Obama/Biden let Russia take Crimea. Russia can smell Biden's Weakness.

Russia will wait some time before they take action . 

Biden calls Putin a murderer and now expects Putin to call him and explain his actions.  

Knucklehead.

 

 

Edited by Roch
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On 4/5/2021 at 3:50 AM, Boat said:

I disagree. Americans do not shy from war if the reasons are sound. What they get pissed at is occupation with no real plan. As the body count rises and hundreds of billions are spent this is understandable frustration. The military cannot stop nuclear Armageddon. Only the fear of death and mutually ensured destruction is the deturant. 
Our leadership has been weak, indecisive and our policies stupid for the most part. Biden can hardly do worse. 

I'm not sure what it is you are disagreeing with?  Past administrations, of both parties, have consistently found reasons to engage, whether justifiably or even proven to be under true pretenses.  Trump did not, and is in fact the first president in decades who did not.  He also was working to extract us from ongoing troop deployments in areas with questionable motives (To keep our forces trained and experienced?  I'll buy that.).

My comment regarding armageddon was intended to mean that I fear the Biden administration may, intentionally or unintentionally, escalate tensions unnecessarily to such a level that some former or present/future superpower, or their proxy, lets loose with a missile or two.  Cool heads in the military would be a deterrent against solely politically motivated actors in or near to the administration retalliating to the level of armageddon.  Checks and balances.

Your last statement is hard to disagree with.  But with the Left moving to implement vast planet changing plans and readjustments, I simply don't trust them to do the right thing in real world politics.  Domestic changes are one thing; foreign powers and their players may react in ways the Left never envisioned, or did....

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(edited)

 

On 4/5/2021 at 5:01 PM, Roch said:

I disagree with your assessment.  

U.S. does not want involvement in useless wars that are not in our country's interest.

We can't be the world's policemen anymore. 

The U.S. should not lose one single life or spend billions to protect a corrupt Ukraine government.  

Germany and France diss U.S. natural gas and pay Russia $ Billions for their natural gas.  They then expect U.S. to fight their wars for them. 

Similar to the Obama Administration, Germany and France will probably sign another worthless "Coalition of the Willing" like they did in Syria.  Just like Syria they will not put any "skin in the game".  

or

Like Secretary of State Hillary did with the UN.  Hillary had the U.N. Security Council approve NATO attack Libya and kill khadafi because Libya was not renewing oil contracts with Europe's NATO countries.   The U.S. supplied 95% of the missiles, bombs, air power and the associated  Billions in cost.  Khadafi was killed, Hillary tackled and Libya has been a mess ever since. 

What's most likely ? Joe will let Russia walk in and take Ukraine just like Obama/Biden let Russia take Crimea. Russia can smell Biden's Weakness.

Russia will wait some time before they take action . 

Biden calls Putin a murderer and now expects Putin to call him and explain his actions.  

Knucklehead.

 

 

I agree, we cannot be the world's policeman. But that has also been the policy of presidents past. For example, President Obama said:

Quote

Fourth, all 28 NATO nations have pledged to increase their investments in defense and to move toward investing 2 percent of their GDP in our collective security.  These resources will help NATO invest in critical capabilities, including intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and missile defense.  And this commitment makes clear that NATO will not be complacent.  Our Alliance will reverse the decline in defense spending and rise to meet the challenges that we face in the 21st century. 

In 2014;

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/05/remarks-president-obama-nato-summit-press-conference

and NATO did faithfully act to increase their contributions (note that Trump had his first NATO meeting in May of 2017,  perhaps Obama should have used a bigger Twitter megaphone?)NATO-Graph-1.png

 

When Trump took over the presidency,  he had very experienced people like Tillerson (who had spent 4 decades managing international trade deals, creating jobs both abroad AND in the United States), Mattis (who has read 7000 books about war), McMaster, Kelly, etc. They were all scholars of strategy.

Who did he decide to listen to? Bannon, who seemed to be into a fairly pigeonholed (crusade-like) thinking about China and Iran, but was also operationality into executing on that plan by withdrawing from multilateral deals that had given us leverage to stop their worst behavior (for example, the Trans Pacific Partnership, the Iran Nuclear Deal, etc). Talk about shooting yourself in the foot for political benefit. 

What would have the limits to a Bannonesque policy been? likely a revival of Smoot-Hawley Tariff-era policy, and perhaps a drawn out trade war with China, which (most "mainstream economists at least) think damaged the world economy with countries declaring cascading trade wars against each other. Or perhaps this isolationist type of thinking would have just accelerated China's ascendance by stimulating their own networks of supply chains at the cost of our own inward looking thinking.

Trump meanwhile (weirdly) seemed sympathetic to Russia because Putin's administration was politically convenient for him (for example, Hillary's emails). We also know that he tried to dig up dirt (about the Bidens) from the Ukraine after Zelensky was elected (and even held back the support in military aid, the quid pro quo "fake news" situation). These might be fine actions if someone is used to the responsibility associated with being the executive of a family company, as Trump was, but certainly not "leader of the free world". 

As an aside, what do we know about crimecrime, in for example, the Russiasphere? https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-sberbank-cyber/cyber-crime-has-cost-russia-49-billion-in-2020-sberbank-says-idUKKBN2920YA  It is also generally well known that Russians officials generally turn a blind eye to cybercrime in Russia as long as it is commited against foreigners (or people inside Russia if the proper people are paid off). Given how long (since the early 2000s) some well known (stolen credit cards, stolen identity, information from data breaches) are operating over there, nobody on this side of the Atlantic is stupid enough to think that the “dark information arts” ecosystem in the Motherland and the GRU are all that separate. 

Mattis published his own book. He decided not to write much about Trump because he was president at the time. He heavily criticized Obama and Biden (who was in charge of Iraq policy) for withdrawing all of our troops from Iraq in 2011, which was based on observations from the Soviet retreat from Afghanistan in 1989. It turns out he was probably right in hindsight.  We have about 70 years of bipartisan policy that has resulted in the US being in ~70 countries with 200000 troops abroad.  This largely did not change under Trump. The biggest source of change there was definitely under Clinton. How do we get back to that? Perhaps we can figure out how to reduce tensions with Russia and China, but I'm not so optimistic. 

Edited by surrept33

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On 4/5/2021 at 4:01 PM, Roch said:

I disagree with your assessment.  

U.S. does not want involvement in useless wars that are not in our country's interest.

We can't be the world's policemen anymore. 

The U.S. should not lose one single life or spend billions to protect a corrupt Ukraine government.  

Germany and France diss U.S. natural gas and pay Russia $ Billions for their natural gas.  They then expect U.S. to fight their wars for them. 

Similar to the Obama Administration, Germany and France will probably sign another worthless "Coalition of the Willing" like they did in Syria.  Just like Syria they will not put any "skin in the game".  

or

Like Secretary of State Hillary did with the UN.  Hillary had the U.N. Security Council approve NATO attack Libya and kill khadafi because Libya was not renewing oil contracts with Europe's NATO countries.   The U.S. supplied 95% of the missiles, bombs, air power and the associated  Billions in cost.  Khadafi was killed, Hillary tackled and Libya has been a mess ever since. 

What's most likely ? Joe will let Russia walk in and take Ukraine just like Obama/Biden let Russia take Crimea. Russia can smell Biden's Weakness.

Russia will wait some time before they take action . 

Biden calls Putin a murderer and now expects Putin to call him and explain his actions.  

Knucklehead.

 

 

What you call weakness is lack of involvement in all those countries. We should have never been involved in any of those countries unless through air power and missiles. You like spending trillions and killing off US solders for what? Punk. Ben Lauden kicked our butt. His goal was to involve the US in unsustainable conflict. He was successful beyond his wildest dreams. You’ve still got that 1940’s mentality. Haven’t learned a thing from Vietnam to Afghanistan to Iraq.

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13 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I'm not sure what it is you are disagreeing with?  Past administrations, of both parties, have consistently found reasons to engage, whether justifiably or even proven to be under true pretenses.  Trump did not, and is in fact the first president in decades who did not.  He also was working to extract us from ongoing troop deployments in areas with questionable motives (To keep our forces trained and experienced?  I'll buy that.).

My comment regarding armageddon was intended to mean that I fear the Biden administration may, intentionally or unintentionally, escalate tensions unnecessarily to such a level that some former or present/future superpower, or their proxy, lets loose with a missile or two.  Cool heads in the military would be a deterrent against solely politically motivated actors in or near to the administration retalliating to the level of armageddon.  Checks and balances.

Your last statement is hard to disagree with.  But with the Left moving to implement vast planet changing plans and readjustments, I simply don't trust them to do the right thing in real world politics.  Domestic changes are one thing; foreign powers and their players may react in ways the Left never envisioned, or did....

When it comes planet changing plans Europe and China are clearly the leaders with the US playing catch up. Right or wrong that’s the direction. You don’t trust Biden with foreign politics? Hell I don’t trust any politician. We have a very poor track record. Just glance at our national debt and the state of the world for examples. 
Just who are you afraid of. Countries with nukes? That cat has been out of the bag for decades. Other fears? Us or others could take out a few chip factories and set the world back a decade. Take out a few data bases and civilization grinds to a halt. You guys playing these fear games is ridiculous. We are all interdependent and interwoven we either make it or don’t. There is little escape. The idea of becoming independent and unwoven from our enemies appeals to me. Create that seperation.

Putin playing games is just that. He knows his country can’t really do shyt unless he settles on  an apocalyptic future. I don’t see that happening. If it did happen let’s make sure the rest of the world goes down with us. 

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https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/1172021-37533

The link is to the Ukraine Presidential Decree, stating clearly the intention to take Donbass, Lugansk, Crimea by force. This would not be decreed without the support of the US, which has been reported by all US media, re the quotes from Blinken.

To say the US does not want a war is simply a lie. Biden has more than one motivation for a war. Example: a war would erase the skeletons in the Ukraine closet. 

 

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(edited)

On 4/6/2021 at 10:35 PM, Boat said:

When it comes planet changing plans Europe and China are clearly the leaders with the US playing catch up. Right or wrong that’s the direction. You don’t trust Biden with foreign politics? Hell I don’t trust any politician. We have a very poor track record. Just glance at our national debt and the state of the world for examples. 
Just who are you afraid of. Countries with nukes? That cat has been out of the bag for decades. Other fears? Us or others could take out a few chip factories and set the world back a decade. Take out a few data bases and civilization grinds to a halt. You guys playing these fear games is ridiculous. We are all interdependent and interwoven we either make it or don’t. There is little escape. The idea of becoming independent and unwoven from our enemies appeals to me. Create that seperation.

Putin playing games is just that. He knows his country can’t really do shyt unless he settles on  an apocalyptic future. I don’t see that happening. If it did happen let’s make sure the rest of the world goes down with us. 

China is a "leader"? Check this out, this is the real carbon footprint of the electric revolution. EV's mean more coal, they are coal-cars.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Started-More-Coal-Plants-Than-The-Entire-World-Retired-In-2020.html

Edited by Ecocharger
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11 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

China is a "leader"? Check this out, this is the real carbon footprint of the electric revolution. EV's mean more coal, they are coal-cars.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Started-More-Coal-Plants-Than-The-Entire-World-Retired-In-2020.html

Well, according to that article, they are a leader.  A leader in firing up new coal plants!

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14 hours ago, frankfurter said:

https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/1172021-37533

The link is to the Ukraine Presidential Decree, stating clearly the intention to take Donbass, Lugansk, Crimea by force. This would not be decreed without the support of the US, which has been reported by all US media, re the quotes from Blinken.

To say the US does not want a war is simply a lie. Biden has more than one motivation for a war. Example: a war would erase the skeletons in the Ukraine closet. 

 

Biden's skeletons in the Ukraine closet are very prudent (they have consistently promoted non corrupt institutions). Here is a "mixtape" of various skeletons that went out of the closet a while back:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd7_8EGf0NE

Here are some other skeletons, the chronology (order of things ordered by time) should be understood "in context". Generally, context helps you understand confounding (what causes what and when things become mass publicized when): https://www.justsecurity.org/66271/timeline-trump-giuliani-bidens-and-ukrainegate/

In the United States, we have the freedom to choose who to believe, and ultimately how we mass communicate (curate content). Who do I beleive? Certainly not Rudy Gullibileani. He had a horrible approval rating before 9/11, but for some time gained public sympathy thanks to the attacks. But after a while I think he went off the deep end. Sometimes fame becomes infamy. 

Now, let's look at what the the Government of Ukraine actually said (online): https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/centr-protidiyi-dezinformaciyi-maye-stati-mizhnarodnim-habom-67821

It's been official Kremlin policy to stir up chaos with various asymmetrical warfare. Ask yourself, who are the "Little Green Men": https://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/ARIS_LittleGreenMen.pdf (also compare and contrast with Putin's side of the "story"). 

More recently, the Russian Government has been moving towards a Chinese model. Heavy government control of the internet and media. What are the Russian (or Chinese) governments afraid of? Ask yourself, why is Putin so afraid of the free internet vs the internyet, his "war" on the internet has been intensifying for those who watch such things: https://en.currenttime.tv/p/7345.html

Personally, I think Putin.net has already lost (a while back). His "term" will be over around 2036, that's a tiny blip in the timeline. 

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1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well, according to that article, they are a leader.  A leader in firing up new coal plants!

It'll be interesting to see how well China's carbon market will work: 

https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-02-11/china-launches-world-s-largest-carbon-market

and how quickly or (not) some of those coal plants will be retired:

https://www.dw.com/en/china-coal-emissions-climate-change/a-56644449

 

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(edited)

Thurs April 8 , Whitehouse press conference.

Excerpts from article : Biden reaction to Putin military buildup on border.

 

"The United States is increasingly concerned by recent escalating Russian aggressions in eastern Ukraine, including Russian troop movements on Ukraine's border," Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters. "These are all deeply concerning signs.

Referring also to the recent deaths of Ukrainian soldiers, Psaki said "these are all deeply concerning signs."

She noted that President Joe Biden had talked with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by phone last week and said that Washington was in contact with NATO allies about "the increase in tensions, in ceasefire violations and regional tensions.

 

Putin doesn't care.  "Washington in contact with NATO Allies"

Talk is cheap.

Edited by Roch
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Friday, April 9, Associated Press:

Kremlin says it fears full-scale fighting in Ukraine’s east

(Excerpt)

MOSCOW (AP) — The Kremlin said Friday it fears the resumption of full-scale fighting in eastern Ukraine and could take steps to protect civilians there, a stark warning that comes amid a Russian troop buildup along the border.

The statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, reflected the Kremlin’s determination to prevent Ukraine from using force to try to retake control over separatist-controlled territory in the country’s east.

Also, from Fox News:

Putin so upset over Biden's killer comments he moved 28,000 Russian troops to Ukraine border, report

(Excerpt)

Vladimir Putin was reportedly so angered when President Joe Biden called him a "killer" in his first sit-down interview after taking office, the Russian president left his quarantine, got a COVID vaccination and moved 28,000 Russian troops to the border with Ukraine.

"It was really a shock. And it changed his behavior a lot," argues Pavel Baev, a senior researcher at Norway’s International Peace Research Institute in Oslo.

Russian Bear bombers went into action, forcing NATO to scramble 10 jets to intercept the Russian warplanes flying over the North Atlantic Ocean last week, a rare show of force near the Arctic. On Monday, Putin quietly changed Russia’s constitution to allow him to stay in power until 2036. He would be 83 years old.

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(edited)

On 4/4/2021 at 3:50 PM, Boat said:

I disagree. Americans do not shy from war if the reasons are sound. What they get pissed at is occupation with no real plan. As the body count rises and hundreds of billions are spent this is understandable frustration. The military cannot stop nuclear Armageddon. Only the fear of death and mutually ensured destruction is the deturant. 
Our leadership has been weak, indecisive and our policies stupid for the most part. Biden can hardly do worse. 

Boat, after that many wars under US leadership and dollar is the world reserve currency  and yet the US leadership was weaker and weaker so you need to stop and ask yourself why? And your solution is to printing more dollars for more leadership?

To US citizen, domestic businesses, printing money and increase the tax are basically the same. Government printing money is printing debt, for redistribution, not asset, and it is the US citizens and private businesses who pay for that, not Government sectors.

You shouldn't count any US global corporation export as US export. The increase in tax will only affect US workers for these corporations, or their profit inside the US, which for sure they will pass it to US consumer. For example: Apple imports iPhone to the US, from China not vice versa and pay tax to the US only for the profit they made in the US.

The stock market is world wide, not for US only, the same with the employees world wide but the one who pay for bailing them out of stock crash is the people in the US, alone. March 2020 is the first time Fed buy corporation bonds, and please don't think that stock is great, behind that is lots of bubble and leverage debt which on life support by printing money.

Later on when someone prove to you that most of the stimulus, or the deal with IMF SDR is for the benefit of China and US keep l, in Biden term, will you say:

1 Trump would do the same like Biden!

2  Face the cold hard truth that US need to print more money or go to war for leadership is just a illusion. Even allies or any world organization will take it for granted as it is US duty and will be angry if they can no longer milking it. You cannot buy leadership.

China didn't need to print money for the world, didn't need to make wars and you can see their "leadership" is rising in IMF, UN, WTO, WHO. They even didn't need to honor any promise since joined WTO . US is running in the most inefficient way for leadership, compares to China bribing world's politicians, including US politicians. Do you think they didn't pay before they can demonstrate their "respect" to Obama or Biden? At least they considered Trump is the opponent who they needed to remove at all cost.

Yes, there were many bad decisions in the past, when US were still outstanding compares to the rest of the world and The People could afford that, but not now, when the US economy is in artificial life support, despite the stock market you see out there, lots of leveraging. Proof? Recent Bill Hwang and Archegos event. People will not get rich fast without the support of the bank. And because you borrow money, not yours, naturally you won't need to pay much taxes.

There has been no country in the past print money to rescue their hostile rival economy for leadership. China got their own problem, arguably their central bank applied MMT so successfully that the FED learn that and the stimulus, green new deal, and the coming infrastructure help them big ( guess where the material for these infrastructure came from?)

Maintaining leadership is just a pathetic excuse for spending more US future taxes for personal, not US's, power (the current taxes are even not enough to pay for current spending).  

There is a good interview about current US strategy for buying US leadership, including inflation, deflation, if you want some fresh food not processed food.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pnK7W4b0Ro

The only thing mainstream feeding US people are excuses, because people who are lazy won't dig more if they accept the excuses.

One famous example is printing money to keep the jobs for US people, while most of the stimulus keep the jobs elsewhere. 

Ask yourself if all US to do for leadership is to print money for the world, with the current popular Modern Monetary Theory on world wide media, then why would we need to pay tax? Surely Fed can print money for government to buy leadership and help unfortunate people and the people can keep their hard earned money.

You don't have to believe me. But you need to understand the theories before the googling for real events or listen to mainstream, which I am doing daily as you.  Their strategies simply make it simple with a tiny puzzle and without understand the theories and motivations, you won't be able to connect to the bigger picture.

Please don't feel disrespected. If I didn't respect another's point of view, I wouldn't waste time to type that long. 

Edited by SUZNV
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(edited)

I am doubt anyone will listen to the above of 3 hours rather than movie or music even they have time on a road trip. 

So here is the short version from an Oz guy about China and IMF (So he is not either Biden nor Trump voter, all he cares is the IMF and China and Fed, but we can see Yellen reaction as well, spoiler alert: we will talk offline). It is no secret except  no media report these to you, guess there is no demand in the US for these type of news. It is 13 minutes. I have heard about this few weeks ago but this is a good integration.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZQXLWZARHA

And by the way, the Fed has changed M2 supply charge update schedule from every week to every month, few days ago. Again, no big deal, not worth to be on media.

Edited by SUZNV

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