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13 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

I disagree. When stores are looted and businesses leave the state because they cannot get insurance, everyone becomes a victim. You will find that no reasonable person supports your crowd.

Notice which state is losing insurance and their political leanings.

California is not run by little store front businesses.  Big agriculture and technology bring in the huge money and can't be shoplifted.

Your small farm town outlook on everything is cute.  I've noticed you think everything is hundreds of miles away, so you most likely live in the sticks.

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5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Baloney, 98.7% of all power consumed is on fixed rate...

Stop being a pedantic idiot quoting spot peak power plant prices

This is embarrassing as it is based on next day predicted which by ERCOT's own admission they on AVERAGE overestimate by about 1-->2GW out of over 80GW peak standard. 

https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/load/forecast

Some peakers are making LOADS of cash!  

And who is paying for it?

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14 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

"alternative sources"... IN order of significance

Hydropower(Still have 300GW to build out and they already have 700GW)

Natural Gas

Nuclear(huge amount coming online soon)

Wind which may or may not even be tied to the grid and even by their own "data" has a capacity factor 50% lower than in the EU which itself does not have great wind resources but is pretending is economical but a great "jobs" program... 

Solar which may or may not even be tied to the grid

Hydro is very important to China and yes they have potential for a lot more, but this is finite.

Solar, wind and "other" renewables make up 3,667TWh in 2022 compared to 3397TWh of hydro which means they are at least equally important as hydro. The difference between hydro and renewables is they can build out with renewables on an almost unlimted scale, as they are currently doing as per the article below which shows an additonal 379GW of solar and 371GW of wind by 2025. That should more than double the current renewable TWh to approx 7,500 or approx 1/3 of the energy produced by coal. That does not mean coal will reduce but will just be a lower percentage of the energy mix which is what we've seen over the last 10 -12 years.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader

Yes of course the vast majority of renewable projects are connected to the grid, certainly the large scale ones are and yes there were issues with transmission connection with the early ones but these issues have been resolved.

Regarding nuclear, yes they are expecting a lot more to come on stream and a lot more in the planning stage but these will take many years to build. Even if all were built tomorrow it would only produce 169GW compared to 1200GW of renewables by 2025.

"China is one of the world's largest producers of nuclear power. The country ranks third in the world both in total nuclear power capacity installed and electricity generated, accounting for around one tenth of global nuclear power generated. As of February 2023, China has 55 plants with 57GW in operation, 22 under construction with 24 GW and more than 70 planned with 88GW. About 5% of electricity in the country is due to nuclear energy. [7] These plants generated 417 TWh of electricity in 2022 [8] This is versus the September 2022 numbers of 53 nuclear reactors, with a total capacity of 55.6 gigawatt (GW). [9]In 2019, nuclear power had contributed 4.9% of the total Chinese electricity production, with 348.1 TWh.[2]"

This is an interesting article although there is definite bias towards green energies.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/06/renewables-in-china-trend-upward-while-nuclear-trends-flat/

Edited by Rob Plant

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19 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Notice which state is losing insurance and their political leanings.

California is not run by little store front businesses.  Big agriculture and technology bring in the huge money and can't be shoplifted.

Your small farm town outlook on everything is cute.  I've noticed you think everything is hundreds of miles away, so you most likely live in the sticks.

L.A. is a small town? San Francisco is a small town?

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4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

All we hear about are subsidies for renewables and EV's, this article may wake a few people up.

G20 Fossil Fuel Subsidies Exceed $1 Trillion Since COP26

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/G20-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Exceed-1-Trillion-Since-COP26.html

This nonsense again? Really...I thought that you were beyond this garbage.

Almost all of these so-called "subsidies" are not "explicit" but are simply inferred according to a wild and radical misjudgment of environmental costs.

Completely worthless.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-imf-report-climate-crisis-oil-gas-coal

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50 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

This nonsense again? Really...I thought that you were beyond this garbage.

Almost all of these so-called "subsidies" are not "explicit" but are simply inferred according to a wild and radical misjudgment of environmental costs.

Completely worthless.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-imf-report-climate-crisis-oil-gas-coal

I didnt write the article Eco!

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2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

L.A. is a small town? San Francisco is a small town?

You live in LA or san fran? 

"Your small farm town outlook" You.

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I didnt write the article Eco!

Thank goodness for that. The "subsidies" imputed for fossil fuels in this article by the various climate agitators are pure fiction.

Edited by Ecocharger
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11 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Tech Breakthrough Makes $2.5 Trillion Hydrogen Boom Possible

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tech-Breakthrough-Makes-25-Trillion-Hydrogen-Boom-Possible.html

Oh dear mark Lawson's book on how hydrogen isnt the answer is going to look pretty out of date and very silly to most sane people.

From what little I've seen, it still relies on nuclear power, so maybe not such a breakthrough. Time will tell. Interesting, though.

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(edited)

Zz

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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4 hours ago, AlBub said:

From what little I've seen, it still relies on nuclear power, so maybe not such a breakthrough. Time will tell. Interesting, though.

Try reading whole articles sometime.

If you read the article you would see it's a fancy way of burning scrap metal. Still not really a energy breakthrough as making metal is energy expensive.

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https://partners.wsj.com/cme-group/beyond-the-market/how-wti-redrew-crude-oil-trade-routes/?utm_medium=WSJ&utm_source=1317399_1_wsj_frontpage_native(10%sov)_flight2%2Cweek1

 

y Russell Blinch for CME Group

Everything’s bigger in Texas, and that includes its light sweet crude grade that plays a super-sized role on the global stage.

The United States is an oil exporting powerhouse, thanks to booming shale production over the past decade. American crude is flowing more freely than ever before to where it’s needed, including to Europe, which turned to the U.S. after Russian war sanctions disrupted crude flows. As a result, the U.S. Gulf Coast is proving to be a pivotal supplier in a more dynamic energy market.

Euan Craik, as U.S. head of Argus Media’s operations from 2006 to 2020, had a bird’s-eye view of America’s metamorphosis from oil importer to exporter. “You had the situation where oil production was just growing and growing, and there was no place left domestically to place it.”

The shale boom posed new challenges—one being that infrastructure along the Gulf Coast had to be reconfigured to export crude instead of importing it.

“It took years to get this right and to reverse pipelines and build new ones,” says Craik, who is now president of petroleum markets at Argus Media Ltd. in London.

Today, he says, “the crude will move down the pipeline to a storage terminal in Houston, where it will typically sit in a tank until someone wants to ship out a cargo.” Then a party will charter a vessel to take the oil, sometimes transferring the cargo to a bigger ocean-faring ship.

High Demand for U.S. Crude

Underpinning this market transformation is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, a 40-year-old tool that’s spurring greater competition in the world oil trade. The WTI grade, a blend of several streams of light sweet crude, is in high demand by refineries everywhere because of its ideal viscosity.

“What a futures market does is it allows economic decision-making at all times, when the market is in relative equilibrium and when the market is under stress,” says Peter Keavey, CME Group’s global head of energy and environmental products. “WTI is explicitly the most important pricing grade globally,” he says.

Craik at Argus remarks on the stunning size, transparency and liquidity of the WTI complex: “This doesn’t happen very often. This type of development is once in a generation, really. It’s the cherry on top of the cake for the shale boom.”

230724CrudeCountries_resize.gif

He says the market’s liquidity continues to build. “One of the exciting things is that liquidity begets more liquidity. So once you have a contract that works, it attracts more participants, and as the information about that market becomes more transparent, it attracts speculative investment and pension funds and the like.”

He adds, “We’re fielding calls from institutions who just want to understand the physical cash markets better because it’s an attractive investment for them.”

WTI crude futures are providing consumers a reliable way to manage their energy risks, providing a bay window into the direction of energy prices, unlike in the pre-futures era where OPEC held sway by manipulating its oil taps.

This doesn’t happen very often. This type of development is once in a generation, really. It’s the cherry on top of the cake for the shale boom.

 Euan Craik, President, Petroleum Markets, Argus Media Ltd.

CME Group launched Argus-settled U.S. crude export grade futures in 2016, which have been widely adopted by the market. These include WTI Houston, WTI Midland and Mars spread futures contracts, which surpassed 500,000 in open interest—or the number of outstanding futures contracts—in May. Average daily trading volume in the Houston and Midland contracts were up 85% year over year through June, with open interest up 60%. The growth coincided with the inclusion of U.S. oil into the Dated Brent pricing mechanism earlier this year.

Exports Notch Records

Bob Iaccino, co-portfolio manager of The Stock Think Tank, agrees that WTI is the most important pricing grade, given export growth. “You will never see a crude oil production cut from the United States. And that gives WTI a very powerful role because light sweet crude is the most desirable type of crude for gasoline—and gasoline is the most desirable byproduct from a barrel of crude oil.”

230724CrudeExportChart_v2.gif

U.S. crude oil exports reached a record in March 2023, exactly 40 years after the launch of the WTI futures contract.

U.S. oil exports rose 22% in 2022 over the previous year to a record 3.6 million barrels per day, fueled by new demand in Europe as Russian supplies came under pressure, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The torrid export pace continued into 2023, with a record of 4.8 million barrels per day exported in March, largely because of resurgence in demand from China.

“As the U.S. has evolved into an export powerhouse, WTI has become the most important barrel in the world,” Keavey says.

Oil shocks, demand spikes and economic slumps have staggered global oil markets on a recurring basis over the years. But surging production from U.S. oil shale fields, along with the lifting of the country’s crude export ban in 2015, has helped give markets extra supplies.

Production from shale oil totaled about 7.79 million barrels a day in 2022, equal to about two-thirds of U.S. production, according to the EIA. Shale production is forecast to rise to more than 9 million barrels per day by 2024, a steep climb from under 2 million barrels per day in 2012, according to the EIA.

Futures and Risk

Production from the North Sea is waning, which is only adding to the spotlight on the U.S. Gulf Coast where traders are busy loading tankers to help quench the world’s thirst for crude.

“It cannot be overemphasized how much the lifting of the U.S. export ban and the growing export base of U.S. crude has reshaped the market because it is by far the most significant shift in crude oil markets in the last 50 years,” Keavey says.

To reflect the new reality of global oil flows, WTI Midland crude is now part of the Brent benchmark basket, the first time a non-North Sea crude has been allowed in the benchmark complex.

“Bottom line for Brent is that it will be much more influenced by U.S. fundamentals such as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and Permian production,” says Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader at CIBC Private Wealth, in a recent interview.

Today, U.S. production fundamentals and export levels show that WTI is the major crude oil grade setting the global marginal price.

It is by far the most significant shift in crude oil markets in the last 50 years.

 Peter Keavey, Global Head of Energy and Environmental Products, CME Group

“The tables are turning,” says Tracey Shuchart, CEO and chief market strategist at Hilltower Resource Advisors LLC, adding that while Brent was considered the benchmark, that was before WTI oil was allowed to be exported.

“It has given the European market options with which to manage their crude oil supply, which is what every buyer wants—they want options,” Keavey says.

“This allowed the market to rebalance very quickly from shocks,” he says. “We have a supply shock in Russia. And we have OPEC controlling supply using quotas. So U.S. crude allowed Europe to neutralize some of the other geopolitical factors.”

Redrawing Trade Routes

Buyers in Europe and elsewhere can be more discerning about where they source their crude supply, and have the option to manage their exposure. “It’s always a net positive to increase supply into a market and give buyers the flexibility to hedge their risk more efficiently,” Keavey says.

With the rise in U.S. production, the lifting of the U.S. export ban and the emergence of a made-in-America benchmark, the U.S. has far more influence in global crude markets, making it less vulnerable to the global supply shocks of the past.

“With an increase in domestic production, you become less dependent on foreign oil, which reduces the vulnerability to supply disruptions and higher volatility in global markets,” Shuchart says. “Also, you gain greater flexibility in global markets, giving buyers more options.”

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7 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

https://partners.wsj.com/cme-group/beyond-the-market/how-wti-redrew-crude-oil-trade-routes/?utm_medium=WSJ&utm_source=1317399_1_wsj_frontpage_native(10%sov)_flight2%2Cweek1

 

y Russell Blinch for CME Group

Everything’s bigger in Texas, and that includes its light sweet crude grade that plays a super-sized role on the global stage.

The United States is an oil exporting powerhouse, thanks to booming shale production over the past decade. American crude is flowing more freely than ever before to where it’s needed, including to Europe, which turned to the U.S. after Russian war sanctions disrupted crude flows. As a result, the U.S. Gulf Coast is proving to be a pivotal supplier in a more dynamic energy market.

Euan Craik, as U.S. head of Argus Media’s operations from 2006 to 2020, had a bird’s-eye view of America’s metamorphosis from oil importer to exporter. “You had the situation where oil production was just growing and growing, and there was no place left domestically to place it.”

The shale boom posed new challenges—one being that infrastructure along the Gulf Coast had to be reconfigured to export crude instead of importing it.

“It took years to get this right and to reverse pipelines and build new ones,” says Craik, who is now president of petroleum markets at Argus Media Ltd. in London.

Today, he says, “the crude will move down the pipeline to a storage terminal in Houston, where it will typically sit in a tank until someone wants to ship out a cargo.” Then a party will charter a vessel to take the oil, sometimes transferring the cargo to a bigger ocean-faring ship.

High Demand for U.S. Crude

Underpinning this market transformation is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, a 40-year-old tool that’s spurring greater competition in the world oil trade. The WTI grade, a blend of several streams of light sweet crude, is in high demand by refineries everywhere because of its ideal viscosity.

“What a futures market does is it allows economic decision-making at all times, when the market is in relative equilibrium and when the market is under stress,” says Peter Keavey, CME Group’s global head of energy and environmental products. “WTI is explicitly the most important pricing grade globally,” he says.

Craik at Argus remarks on the stunning size, transparency and liquidity of the WTI complex: “This doesn’t happen very often. This type of development is once in a generation, really. It’s the cherry on top of the cake for the shale boom.”

230724CrudeCountries_resize.gif

He says the market’s liquidity continues to build. “One of the exciting things is that liquidity begets more liquidity. So once you have a contract that works, it attracts more participants, and as the information about that market becomes more transparent, it attracts speculative investment and pension funds and the like.”

He adds, “We’re fielding calls from institutions who just want to understand the physical cash markets better because it’s an attractive investment for them.”

WTI crude futures are providing consumers a reliable way to manage their energy risks, providing a bay window into the direction of energy prices, unlike in the pre-futures era where OPEC held sway by manipulating its oil taps.

This doesn’t happen very often. This type of development is once in a generation, really. It’s the cherry on top of the cake for the shale boom.

 Euan Craik, President, Petroleum Markets, Argus Media Ltd.

CME Group launched Argus-settled U.S. crude export grade futures in 2016, which have been widely adopted by the market. These include WTI Houston, WTI Midland and Mars spread futures contracts, which surpassed 500,000 in open interest—or the number of outstanding futures contracts—in May. Average daily trading volume in the Houston and Midland contracts were up 85% year over year through June, with open interest up 60%. The growth coincided with the inclusion of U.S. oil into the Dated Brent pricing mechanism earlier this year.

Exports Notch Records

Bob Iaccino, co-portfolio manager of The Stock Think Tank, agrees that WTI is the most important pricing grade, given export growth. “You will never see a crude oil production cut from the United States. And that gives WTI a very powerful role because light sweet crude is the most desirable type of crude for gasoline—and gasoline is the most desirable byproduct from a barrel of crude oil.”

230724CrudeExportChart_v2.gif

U.S. crude oil exports reached a record in March 2023, exactly 40 years after the launch of the WTI futures contract.

U.S. oil exports rose 22% in 2022 over the previous year to a record 3.6 million barrels per day, fueled by new demand in Europe as Russian supplies came under pressure, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The torrid export pace continued into 2023, with a record of 4.8 million barrels per day exported in March, largely because of resurgence in demand from China.

“As the U.S. has evolved into an export powerhouse, WTI has become the most important barrel in the world,” Keavey says.

Oil shocks, demand spikes and economic slumps have staggered global oil markets on a recurring basis over the years. But surging production from U.S. oil shale fields, along with the lifting of the country’s crude export ban in 2015, has helped give markets extra supplies.

Production from shale oil totaled about 7.79 million barrels a day in 2022, equal to about two-thirds of U.S. production, according to the EIA. Shale production is forecast to rise to more than 9 million barrels per day by 2024, a steep climb from under 2 million barrels per day in 2012, according to the EIA.

Futures and Risk

Production from the North Sea is waning, which is only adding to the spotlight on the U.S. Gulf Coast where traders are busy loading tankers to help quench the world’s thirst for crude.

“It cannot be overemphasized how much the lifting of the U.S. export ban and the growing export base of U.S. crude has reshaped the market because it is by far the most significant shift in crude oil markets in the last 50 years,” Keavey says.

To reflect the new reality of global oil flows, WTI Midland crude is now part of the Brent benchmark basket, the first time a non-North Sea crude has been allowed in the benchmark complex.

“Bottom line for Brent is that it will be much more influenced by U.S. fundamentals such as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and Permian production,” says Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader at CIBC Private Wealth, in a recent interview.

Today, U.S. production fundamentals and export levels show that WTI is the major crude oil grade setting the global marginal price.

It is by far the most significant shift in crude oil markets in the last 50 years.

 Peter Keavey, Global Head of Energy and Environmental Products, CME Group

“The tables are turning,” says Tracey Shuchart, CEO and chief market strategist at Hilltower Resource Advisors LLC, adding that while Brent was considered the benchmark, that was before WTI oil was allowed to be exported.

“It has given the European market options with which to manage their crude oil supply, which is what every buyer wants—they want options,” Keavey says.

“This allowed the market to rebalance very quickly from shocks,” he says. “We have a supply shock in Russia. And we have OPEC controlling supply using quotas. So U.S. crude allowed Europe to neutralize some of the other geopolitical factors.”

Redrawing Trade Routes

Buyers in Europe and elsewhere can be more discerning about where they source their crude supply, and have the option to manage their exposure. “It’s always a net positive to increase supply into a market and give buyers the flexibility to hedge their risk more efficiently,” Keavey says.

With the rise in U.S. production, the lifting of the U.S. export ban and the emergence of a made-in-America benchmark, the U.S. has far more influence in global crude markets, making it less vulnerable to the global supply shocks of the past.

“With an increase in domestic production, you become less dependent on foreign oil, which reduces the vulnerability to supply disruptions and higher volatility in global markets,” Shuchart says. “Also, you gain greater flexibility in global markets, giving buyers more options.”

Now if you could just explain why Republicans keep claiming we aren't energy independent? We are net exporters of coal, natural gas and petroleum. We do import a bit more electricity than we export because the Niagra Falls power plant is on the Canadian side. But U.S. total energy exports exceeded total energy imports by about 3.82 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in 2021, the largest margin on record

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On 8/24/2023 at 1:05 PM, TailingsPond said:

You live in LA or san fran? 

"Your small farm town outlook" You.

I live in a city. But fortunately not in San Francisco or L.A. where the business insurers are getting out of the market and businesses will have to leave the state. Is that what you want? A culture where pillaging and looting make it impossible to open a business?

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8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Now if you could just explain why Republicans keep claiming we aren't energy independent? We are net exporters of coal, natural gas and petroleum. We do import a bit more electricity than we export because the Niagra Falls power plant is on the Canadian side. But U.S. total energy exports exceeded total energy imports by about 3.82 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in 2021, the largest margin on record

If you ban oil production you have a problem.

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1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

 Is that what you want? A culture where pillaging and looting make it impossible to open a business?

Of course I don't want that.  San fran has a huge homeless problem and it's not just because of the state government. 

Way too many millionaires per capita distorts prices; the geography hinders the building market; and the winters are mild so the homeless choose to live there.

Hippies have long flocked there. "peace"

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(edited)

4 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

Of course I don't want that.  San fran has a huge homeless problem and it's not just because of the state government. 

Way too many millionaires per capita distorts prices; the geography hinders the building market; and the winters are mild so the homeless choose to live there.

Hippies have long flocked there. "peace"

So why should California change the laws to allow looting and pillaging? That makes no sense. Being homeless is not an excuse for anti-capitalist rhetoric and "social" protest (otherwise known as robbery and vandalism).

Edited by Ecocharger

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5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

So why should California change the laws to allow looting and pillaging? That makes no sense. Being homeless is not an excuse for anti-capitalist rhetoric and "social" protest (otherwise known as robbery and vandalism).

Nobody said they should change the laws... that's in your head.

Poverty increases crime due to the will to survive.  They need more affordable housing and social support systems.  

What would you propose as a solution, put them all in jail? Incarceration, or worse, hospitalization costs far more money than social support systems.

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(edited)

3 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Nobody said they should change the laws... that's in your head.

Poverty increases crime due to the will to survive.  They need more affordable housing and social support systems.  

What would you propose as a solution, put them all in jail? Incarceration, or worse, hospitalization costs far more money than social support systems.

Driving business out of the state makes matters worse, there will be fewer jobs for the homeless. This is self-destructive policy making, to remove the penalties for theft.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/public_defender/prop_47_faq.html#:~:text=47 changed the law so,later than NOVEMBER 4%2C 2022.

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

27 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Driving business out of the state makes matters worse, there will be fewer jobs for the homeless. This is self-destructive policy making, to remove the penalties for theft.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/public_defender/prop_47_faq.html#:~:text=47 changed the law so,later than NOVEMBER 4%2C 2022.

That just looks like theft under $950 becomes a misdemeanour.  Lots of misdemeanours come with pretty severe penalties, up to a year in jail.

A simple, low-value item shoplifter should not be considered a felon.  The punishment of felons costs the government loads of money and the person becomes less employable going forward.  Having them do community service and pay a fine is much better.

Plenty of evidence that widespread incarceration does not work!

If it was your kid who did something stupid one day you probably would change your tune real fast.  There is no reason to destroy a teens future over some petty theft or a small amount of drug use.

Edited by TailingsPond
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3 minutes ago, TailingsPond said:

That just looks like theft under $950 becomes a misdemeanour.  Lots of misdemeanours come with pretty severe penalties, up to a year in jail.

A simple, low-value item shoplifter should not be considered a felon.  The punishment of felons costs the government loads of money and the person becomes less employable going forward.  Having them do community service and pay a fine is much better.

Plenty of evidence that widespread incarceration does not work!

If it was your kid who did something stupid one day you probably would change your tune real fast.

My "kid" would never do that.

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Just now, Ecocharger said:

My "kid" would never do that.

You've never committed a crime yourself?  Apples don't fall far from trees.

We were young and stupid too.

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(edited)

Speeding is far more likely to cause injury, death, and property damage than shoplifting.  Yet the wealthy -who can pay tickets easily- downplay it.

You never speed in your gas guzzler?

Edited by TailingsPond
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