GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It always seems to stop growing at 100%, funny dat. Extrapolating a growth curve is a core function of economics.

However I do expect it to be an s curve growth rate.  We'll reach 75% between 2030 and 2035. About then the growth rate will slow significantly, however that other 25% will be PHEV or Hydrogen.  

 

He did not specify, right? It would nice to read something that is coherent.

We will not see 25% for a long time, with oil use rapidly increasing for transportation. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Oil demand is continuing to grow, not recede. At a fast pace.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/NNPC-Lack-Of-Investment-Could-Push-Oil-To-200.html

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Oil demand  is rapidly growing, and will continue to grow, even if it slows as a percentage of overall energy supply.

“Oil consumption will continue to grow despite a relative drop in its share in the global energy mix,” Sechin also said during a panel.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/WTI-Crude-Hits-Highest-Level-Since-2018.html

Edited June 10, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

47 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

He did not specify, right? It would nice to read something that is coherent.

We will not see 25% for a long time, with oil use rapidly increasing for transportation. 

The original post that you responded to on the topic was about market share. Sorry, I forgot I have to explain everything over again in every post for you.

Talk about lacking coherence, you are claiming that because oil use is returning to pre pandemic levels and prices this year that we won't see 25% BEV new car market share in CA in 4 years???? 

A little economics lesson for you - one of the most fundamental functions in economics is that when the price of a product goes up people switch to substitutes. In the past oil was inelastic because there were no substitutes but now there are.

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

 

We will not see 25% for a long time, with oil use rapidly increasing for transportation. 

In a high oil price regime we should begin to include PHEV into the analysis again as the more expensive oil is, the more motivated PHEV users are to plug in every night. 

That would put Germany, the 4th largest car market, at over 22% PEV already. 

The 2021 year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 22.2%, up dramatically from the 7.6% at this point in 2020.https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/05/germany-plugin-evs-about-to-blast-past-25-share-of-auto-market/

Regardless, Germany will be at 25% BEV in 2-3 years.

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Oil demand is continuing to grow, not recede. At a fast pace.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/NNPC-Lack-Of-Investment-Could-Push-Oil-To-200.html

Back to pre pandemic levels. When quantity demand surpasses 2019 then you will have something to talk about.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,391]

6 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Back to pre pandemic levels. When quantity demand surpasses 2019 then you will have something to talk about.

I believe Worldwide demand will increase above 2019's for another fraction of a decade.

Love my Harley.  Second gear!  OH!!!!   It's almost as addicting as electricity.

Edited June 11, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The original post that you responded to on the topic was about market share. Sorry, I forgot I have to explain everything over again in every post for you.

Talk about lacking coherence, you are claiming that because oil use is returning to pre pandemic levels and prices this year that we won't see 25% BEV new car market share in CA in 4 years???? 

A little economics lesson for you - one of the most fundamental functions in economics is that when the price of a product goes up people switch to substitutes. In the past oil was inelastic because there were no substitutes but now there are.

 

Your "original" post? The post I saw said nothing about market share, just "25%". You usually talk about growth rates, so of course I assumed you were still pushing that little story.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Back to pre pandemic levels. When quantity demand surpasses 2019 then you will have something to talk about.

Read the article, it says that oil will continue to GROW in absolute terms going forward. Even sharing the energy market with other sources allows a growth in absolute output.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In a high oil price regime we should begin to include PHEV into the analysis again as the more expensive oil is, the more motivated PHEV users are to plug in every night. 

That would put Germany, the 4th largest car market, at over 22% PEV already. 

The 2021 year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 22.2%, up dramatically from the 7.6% at this point in 2020.https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/05/germany-plugin-evs-about-to-blast-past-25-share-of-auto-market/

Regardless, Germany will be at 25% BEV in 2-3 years.

 

"Plugin SHARE"?  Share of what? Share of a growing market? Of auto stock?  Fill in the blanks, please.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

"Plugin SHARE"?  Share of what? Share of a growing market? Of auto stock?  Fill in the blanks, please.

The same thing we have been talking about. You could also try clicking on the link.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

17 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Your "original" post? The post I saw said nothing about market share, just "25%". You usually talk about growth rates, so of course I assumed you were still pushing that little story.

It was clear to trance so maybe you should pay more attention to what you are responding to.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

16 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Read the article, it says that oil will continue to GROW in absolute terms going forward. Even sharing the energy market with other sources allows a growth in absolute output.

It says some guy claimed it would, nothing more.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The same thing we have been talking about. You could also try clicking on the link.

You usually talk about share of registrations of new vehicles, which is like the tip of an iceberg. So, no, I assume that you are still talking about minutiae.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It says some guy claimed it would, nothing more.

Some "guy" who should be in the know, unlike some others.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Here are some other "guys" who know how to judge an oil demand market.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/A-Scorching-Hot-Middle-East-Summer-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Soaring.html

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Back to pre pandemic levels. When quantity demand surpasses 2019 then you will have something to talk about.

We have plenty to talk about now. Like the major upswing in demand for ICE SUV's (no surprise). The poor old EV gets only one life to live, the life of its battery. Replacement of that battery is prohibitively expensive, which is one reason why you and I still drive ICE vehicles, and will continue with ICE going forward. 

The ICE goes through several lifetimes of providing basic family transportation as a used car, which means that Biden is crafting plans to shaft the poor people of America who depend upon used cars. The engine block of the ICE vehicle can extend many years without needing to be replaced.. 

These fundamentals will not change, and the ICE SUV will continue to be the backbone of American family transportation, especially for the poor of this country, going forward.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

15 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Some "guy" who should be in the know, unlike some others.

some guy who is trying to get funding by trying to convince the investors they aren't investing in stranded assets.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

51 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It says some guy claimed it would, nothing more.

Extraordinary some guy claimed it would! Do not look in the mirror.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

37 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

We have plenty to talk about now. Like the major upswing in demand for ICE SUV's (no surprise). The poor old EV gets only one life to live, the life of its battery. Replacement of that battery is prohibitively expensive, which is one reason why you and I still drive ICE vehicles, and will continue with ICE going forward. 

The ICE goes through several lifetimes of providing basic family transportation as a used car, which means that Biden is crafting plans to shaft the poor people of America who depend upon used cars. The engine block of the ICE vehicle can extend many years without needing to be replaced.. 

These fundamentals will not change, and the ICE SUV will continue to be the backbone of American family transportation, especially for the poor of this country, going forward.

Oh, so now you want to talk about new vehicle sales rates. 

If California were an independent country we would be the 6th largest new car market in the world. In Q1 of this year the Tesla Model Y outsold every pickup and suv except the RAV 4. https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-21.pdf

The fundamentals won't change? HaHa! The battery cost curve is dropping fast and quality EV batteries such as Tesla's last hundreds of thousands of miles. By the time they need to be replaced the cost of doing so will be less than an engine rebuild. Especially as the recycling market begins generating demand for the old batteires.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Oh, so now you want to talk about new vehicle sales rates. 

If California were an independent country we would be the 6th largest new car market in the world. In Q1 of this year the Tesla Model Y outsold every pickup and suv except the RAV 4. https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-21.pdf

The fundamentals won't change? HaHa! The battery cost curve is dropping fast and quality EV batteries such as Tesla's last hundreds of thousands of miles. By the time they need to be replaced the cost of doing so will be less than an engine rebuild. Especially as the recycling market begins generating demand for the old batteires.

The cost will not be acceptable for the average American. The ICE engine block goes on without needing replacement.

[-trance + 114]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

I believe Worldwide demand will increase above 2019's for another fraction of a decade.

Love my Harley.  Second gear!  OH!!!!   It's almost as addicting as electricity.

I miss travelling.  I'm pretty sure there will be a big bubble of fuel consumption when borders fully reopen; but It won't last very long.

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by -trance

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

35 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The cost will not be acceptable for the average American. The ICE engine block goes on without needing replacement.

 

The engine and transmission require expensive rebuilds. 

A typical engine rebuild is between $2,500 and $4,000 in parts and labor costs

On average, a rebuilt transmission costs about $1,950 with average prices ranging from $1,100 to $2,800 in the US for 2020. MyTransmissionExpert says the cost to rebuild a transmission is about $2,250, with average prices ranging from $1,500 to $3,000.

A full brake replacement Expect a brake job of replacing brake pads and rotors to cost $250-$400 per axle on average. (EVs basically never need new brakes because of the regen braking)

In a few years a replacement battery will be the same cost or less.

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[notsonice + 1,062]

On 6/4/2021 at 12:03 PM, QuarterCenturyVet said:

None of this matters. Wind and solar are a joke. People that believe wind and solar are going to be the savior of gaia are a joke. 

 https://youtu.be/3ZsXyDkyrCk

Keystone is dead and Ohio gets 500 new permanent manufacturing jobs  in Ohio thanks to Solar. Score another one for Joe.

Ohio will soon be home to the largest solar factory complex outside of China

 

 

Updated 10:10 AM ET, Wed June 9, 2021

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

New York (CNN Business)China's dominance over the world's solar industry just took a hit.

First Solar unveiled plans Wednesday to double its US manufacturing capability by building a new state-of-the-art factory in Ohio.

The $680 million investment by First Solar (FSLR), the only US-headquartered major manufacturer of solar panels, will be the company's third factory in the Toledo area.

 

First Solar said it believes this will be the largest fully integrated solar manufacturing complex in the world — outside of China. It will be capable of making one solar module every 2.8 seconds. And it will primarily supply America's booming market for clean energy.

 

The major solar expansion in the Midwest checks all of the boxes for President Joe Biden, who is simultaneously attempting to revitalize the nation's manufacturing industry, modernize infrastructure, strengthen its critical supply chains and create a clean energy superpower to challenge China's stranglehold over the sector.

"This investment really helps us position the United States on solid footing to achieve its objectives of energy independence and security -- and having US manufacturing enable it," First Solar CEO Mark Widmar told CNN Business.

The Biden administration has set a lofty goal to cut US greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. Hitting that target would require a dramatic ramp up of renewable energy, especially solar

China's grip on the solar industry

 

However, China makes most of the materials and parts in photovoltaic (PV) solar panels used in the United States — and its supply chain has been plagued by allegations of forced labor. "China largely dominates the PV supply chain," Widmar said.

First Solar stressed that — unlike many other major solar manufacturers — it is not dependent on China. That's because the company's thin-film PV panels do not rely on the popular crystalline-silicon technology that is made mostly in China.

 

"Renewables created this great promise of liberation and energy independence. But the dominance of the Chinese has taken over this industry," Widmar said. "It really undermines the opportunity we created when renewables became reliable."

Research published last month presented troubling evidence that the solar panel supply chain is tainted by forced labor in China's Xinjiang region. The report indicates forced labor is used in the mining and processing of quartz, a raw material used at the beginning of the solar panel supply chain.

The Solar Energy Industries Association, the largest solar trade group in the United States, announced earlier this year that 175 solar companies signed a pledge opposing forced labor in the industry's supply chain.

In a statement, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm hailed First Solar's investments in American-made solar technologies as the "perfect embodiment" of Biden's strategy to build out domestic manufacturing and supply chains. Granholm noted that First Solar has been a partner in the Energy Department's solar program since 2003 and received a loan from the agency in 2012.

"This company is a great example of how investment and innovation can build the clean energy future right here at home—shoring up American competitiveness and bringing good-paying jobs to all pockets of the country," Granholm said.

If they build it, will the workers come?

After completion of the 1.8 million square foot facility in Ohio, First Solar expects that about half of its solar panels will be made in America, up from roughly one-third today. US operations are expected to begin in the first half of 2023 and hit full capacity two years later.

The First Solar facility will help meet America's surging demand for solar power. The United States added a record amount of solar power capacity in 2020 and that capacity is expected to quadruple by 2030, according to consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by notsonice

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Ford has confirmed that the total number of reservations of the Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck exceeded 100,000!

https://insideevs.com/news/513265/ford-f150-lightning-100000-reservations/