GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 10/21/2021 at 2:10 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

EV production is growing faster than oil production. 

There is far more ICE production than EV production. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, ronwagn said:

There is far more ICE production than EV production. 

ICE production is decreasing and EV production is increasing. 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

All the public frenzy about climate alarmism is not changing the high demand for oil and coal. with American coal production INCREASING this year! Wow, someone forgot to tell the U.N. about that.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Peak-Oil-Demand-Forecasts-Turn-Sour-As-Demand-Keeps-Growing.html

"Coal, which accounted for about 20% of U.S electricity in 2020, is on track to generate roughly 24% of the nation's power this year, the Energy Information Administration predicted this week. That's largely because natural gas, coal's main competitor, has gotten pricier in the past year, the agency said."

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Even the Biden & Co. folks are admitting that coal production is coming back...as long as current factors continue, coal will be in high demand.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49996

"We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices. "

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Even the Biden & Co. folks are admitting that coal production is coming back...as long as current factors continue, coal will be in high demand.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49996

And then it will return to its secular decrease as this is just a recovery from the pandemic year.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

11 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And then it will return to its secular decrease as this is just a recovery from the pandemic year.

Famous last words...the Greenies were predicting peak oil would come during the pandemic...not. The best predictions are for ten minutes from now, after that, they fade into the ether. The chart above shows natural gas and coal on top. Probably will not change much, as long as the energy crisis continues.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Famous last words...the Greenies were predicting peak oil would come during the pandemic...not. The best predictions are for ten minutes from now, after that, they fade into the ether. The chart above show natural gas and coal on top. Probably will not change much.

But it shows coal continuing to decline at the same rate as before 2020.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

I guess @Ecocharger just can't handle the truth.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Another record month for EVs in China (the world's largest new car market).

Plugin vehicles are all the rage in China, having scored 355,000 registrations in September, a full 24% increase over the previous record, which was set in the previous month of August. In fact, September was the 3rd record month in the last 4 months!

That pulls the year-to-date (YTD) tally to close to 2 million units, and with further record months set to come through December, we should have over 3 million registrations by the end of the year … almost three times as many as the 2020 result!

Share-wise, with September having a record month and the overall auto market dropping 17% year over year (YoY), market share jumped through the roof, hitting a record 20% (17% full electrics/BEVs).https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/22/record-month-for-plugin-vehicle-sales-in-china/

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

32 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

But it shows coal continuing to decline at the same rate as before 2020.

It shows coal increasing according to the figures above...beyond that, the crystal ball grows dimmer.

A 22% growth rate in coal-fired generation this year in America...huge. And no foggy guesswork for future predictions needed.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

21 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Another record month for EVs in China (the world's largest new car market).

Plugin vehicles are all the rage in China, having scored 355,000 registrations in September, a full 24% increase over the previous record, which was set in the previous month of August. In fact, September was the 3rd record month in the last 4 months!

That pulls the year-to-date (YTD) tally to close to 2 million units, and with further record months set to come through December, we should have over 3 million registrations by the end of the year … almost three times as many as the 2020 result!

Share-wise, with September having a record month and the overall auto market dropping 17% year over year (YoY), market share jumped through the roof, hitting a record 20% (17% full electrics/BEVs).https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/22/record-month-for-plugin-vehicle-sales-in-china/

Again, this is just scratching around the edges, Jay.  Most Chinese do what you and I do, own an internal combustion vehicle, and stop at the gasoline pump.

You should thank the oil industry for keeping your gasoline car running down the road.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

10 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, this is just scratching around the edges, Jay.  Most Chinese do what you and I do, own an internal combustion vehicle, and stop at the gasoline pump.

You should thank the oil industry for keeping your gasoline car running down the road.

It's a dramatic example of how ICE car sales are plummeting and EV sales are skyrocketing. EVs will be over 50% new market share in China within two years.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

18 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

It shows coal increasing according to the figures above...beyond that, the crystal ball grows dimmer.

A 22% growth rate in coal-fired generation this year in America...huge. And no foggy guesswork for future predictions needed.

It is nothing more than returning to the previous declining rate. 

[Boat + 1,315]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Even the Biden & Co. folks are admitting that coal production is coming back...as long as current factors continue, coal will be in high demand.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49996

"We expect 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The U.S. electric power sector has been generating more electricity from coal-fired power plants this year as a result of significantly higher natural gas prices and relatively stable coal prices. "

I even gave you a couple of up votes. Many power stations can run multiple sources. If coal is cheaper that’s what they will burn. My guess is this is a temporary situation but the charts will tell us. Let’s say Biden quit allowing nat gas exports like it used to be. Then you would have excess gas and prices of gas retreat. In that case, coal would be out. In the meantime I bet gas drillers will invest in more infrastructure. That’s how this stuff works. Nat gas won’t remain in a shortage state for long. To much money to be made.

[turbguy + 1,398]

On 10/23/2021 at 12:29 AM, Ecocharger said:

Wonderful article, tapping into reality. Here is a good point of enlightenment,

"This brings us to the physical roadblock impeding a magical transition to a battery-infused grid enabling sunlight and wind as primary energy. Batteries are an extremely expensive way to store energy in the main because they’re so material-intensive. It requires about 50 pounds of batteries to hold the amount of energy contained in one pound of oil. Obtaining the minerals needed to fabricate one 50-pound battery requires mining and processing roughly 25,000 pounds of materials. This kind of physical disparity really adds up at grid scales."

You do know that the battery can be recharged more than 50 times, no?

Can you "recharge" that pound of oil?  I think thermodynamics might be a high barrier.

 

[turbguy + 1,398]

9 hours ago, Boat said:

I even gave you a couple of up votes. Many power stations can run multiple sources. If coal is cheaper that’s what they will burn. My guess is this is a temporary situation but the charts will tell us. Let’s say Biden quit allowing nat gas exports like it used to be. Then you would have excess gas and prices of gas retreat. In that case, coal would be out. In the meantime I bet gas drillers will invest in more infrastructure. That’s how this stuff works. Nat gas won’t remain in a shortage state for long. To much money to be made.

Steam power plants that are dual fuel (coal to oil and back) are possible but rare.

Steam power plants that are dual fuel (nat gas to coal and back) are practically non-existent, due to heat transfer considerations in the boiler furnace.

CT's can easily switch nat gas to oil and back, as can some CC plants.

Pulverized Coal fired CT's were attempted, but the erosion from ash did a real number on longevity (think 1 week between hot section overhauls).

 

Edited October 24, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It is nothing more than returning to the previous declining rate. 

It is bucking the Green revolution, in spite of government policy against it.

The trend for coal is up due to the current energy crisis, and will continue to trend up as long as the current energy crisis persists. That should be a long, long time.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

You do know that the battery can be recharged more than 50 times, no?

Can you "recharge" that pound of oil?  I think thermodynamics might be a high barrier.

 

Take a look at this, the cost comparison favors ICE.

https://www.andersoneconomicgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EVtransition_FuelingCostStudy_10-21-21.pdf

"2. EVS OFTEN COST MORE TO FUEL 2. The direct monetary costs of fueling EVs is often higher than for comparable ICE vehicles. We analyzed the direct monetary costs of fueling for six categories of representative vehicles. We included all the direct monetary costs listed in Table 1 for both ICE and EVs. Our analysis included the following steps: • Our representative vehicles included EV and ICE cars in the entry-level, mid-priced and luxury segments.3 • We recognize that EV drivers choose between home and commercial chargers depending on their driving patterns, infrastructure availability and other individual circumstances. Therefore, we assumed some EV owners primarily use home chargers while others rely primarily on commercial chargers. • We used the retail price of gasoline, which is inclusive of road taxes and the cost of operating the pump. We compared this with the cost of electricity at commercial and residential chargers, and the additional registration taxes levied in lieu of gas taxes on EVs. This is as close as possible to an apples-to-apples comparison. • We also accounted for the burden of deadhead miles for EVs, which is significantly higher than for ICE cars. Once these costs were included, we calculate that EVs often cost more to fuel than similar ICE vehicles. For the example set in Michigan, the direct monetary costs to drive 100 miles in an ICE vehicle is between $8 and $12, and in an EV is between $12 and $15. A summary of this direct monetary cost comparison is in Table 2 on page 9."

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

9 hours ago, Boat said:

I even gave you a couple of up votes. Many power stations can run multiple sources. If coal is cheaper that’s what they will burn. My guess is this is a temporary situation but the charts will tell us. Let’s say Biden quit allowing nat gas exports like it used to be. Then you would have excess gas and prices of gas retreat. In that case, coal would be out. In the meantime I bet gas drillers will invest in more infrastructure. That’s how this stuff works. Nat gas won’t remain in a shortage state for long. To much money to be made.

This is not a temporary situation, that is where the projections are wrong. This energy crisis is here for the long haul.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

ICE production is decreasing and EV production is increasing. 

With the ongoing energy crisis choking sources of energy, cost comparisons will increasingly favor ICE over EV, making it much more difficult to acquire an EV.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,398]

52 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Take a look at this, the cost comparison favors ICE.

https://www.andersoneconomicgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EVtransition_FuelingCostStudy_10-21-21.pdf

"2. EVS OFTEN COST MORE TO FUEL 2. The direct monetary costs of fueling EVs is often higher than for comparable ICE vehicles. We analyzed the direct monetary costs of fueling for six categories of representative vehicles. We included all the direct monetary costs listed in Table 1 for both ICE and EVs. Our analysis included the following steps: • Our representative vehicles included EV and ICE cars in the entry-level, mid-priced and luxury segments.3 • We recognize that EV drivers choose between home and commercial chargers depending on their driving patterns, infrastructure availability and other individual circumstances. Therefore, we assumed some EV owners primarily use home chargers while others rely primarily on commercial chargers. • We used the retail price of gasoline, which is inclusive of road taxes and the cost of operating the pump. We compared this with the cost of electricity at commercial and residential chargers, and the additional registration taxes levied in lieu of gas taxes on EVs. This is as close as possible to an apples-to-apples comparison. • We also accounted for the burden of deadhead miles for EVs, which is significantly higher than for ICE cars. Once these costs were included, we calculate that EVs often cost more to fuel than similar ICE vehicles. For the example set in Michigan, the direct monetary costs to drive 100 miles in an ICE vehicle is between $8 and $12, and in an EV is between $12 and $15. A summary of this direct monetary cost comparison is in Table 2 on page 9."

An average Tesla uses 34 kWh (+/-) of electricity per 100 miles. This equates to about 34,000 kWh per 100,000 miles, or between 102,000 kWh to 170,000 kWh for the lifespan of the vehicle. Tesla vehicles charge at about 94% efficiency and discharge at about 90% efficiency.

I pay 12 cents per KWH for residential use.  No "deadhead" miles here. No allowance for time-of-day consumption.

That's  about $5 for 100 miles (factoring charging/discharging efficiencies).

No oil changes, no fuel filter, no brainer...

Ever try out a Tesla?  You just might be surprised...

Edited October 24, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

4 minutes ago, turbguy said:

An average Tesla uses 34 kWh (+/-) of electricity per 100 miles. This equates to about 34,000 kWh per 100,000 miles, or between 102,000 kWh to 170,000 kWh for the lifespan of the vehicle. Tesla vehicles charge at about 94% efficiency and discharge at about 90% efficiency.

I pay 12 cents per KWH for residential use.  No "deadhead" miles here.

That's  about $5 for 100 miles (factoring charging/discharging efficiencies).

No oil changes, no fuel filter, no brainer...

How does that change the estimates in this study? Do you live in Michigan?

What do fuel filters and oil changes have to do with refueling?

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,398]

55 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Take a look at this, the cost comparison favors ICE.

https://www.andersoneconomicgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EVtransition_FuelingCostStudy_10-21-21.pdf

"2. EVS OFTEN COST MORE TO FUEL 2. The direct monetary costs of fueling EVs is often higher than for comparable ICE vehicles. We analyzed the direct monetary costs of fueling for six categories of representative vehicles. We included all the direct monetary costs listed in Table 1 for both ICE and EVs. Our analysis included the following steps: • Our representative vehicles included EV and ICE cars in the entry-level, mid-priced and luxury segments.3 • We recognize that EV drivers choose between home and commercial chargers depending on their driving patterns, infrastructure availability and other individual circumstances. Therefore, we assumed some EV owners primarily use home chargers while others rely primarily on commercial chargers. • We used the retail price of gasoline, which is inclusive of road taxes and the cost of operating the pump. We compared this with the cost of electricity at commercial and residential chargers, and the additional registration taxes levied in lieu of gas taxes on EVs. This is as close as possible to an apples-to-apples comparison. • We also accounted for the burden of deadhead miles for EVs, which is significantly higher than for ICE cars. Once these costs were included, we calculate that EVs often cost more to fuel than similar ICE vehicles. For the example set in Michigan, the direct monetary costs to drive 100 miles in an ICE vehicle is between $8 and $12, and in an EV is between $12 and $15. A summary of this direct monetary cost comparison is in Table 2 on page 9."

BTW, does that "1 pound of oil" include the ~5 pounds of air required to extract that energy?

[turbguy + 1,398]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

How does that change the estimates in this study? Do you live in Michigan?

What do fuel filters and oil changes have to do with refueling?

I live in Wyoming.  For me, it's a no-brainer for my usage.  Does an EV satisfy all requirements of all users?  No.

YMMV.

You should test drive aTesla.

Edited October 24, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Just now, turbguy said:

BTW, does that "1 pound of oil" include the ~5 pounds of air required to extract that energy?

Extraction? That comparison is tough, given the problems with materials used for EVs.  The "1 pound of oil" is in a different article, in case you didn't notice. Nothing to do with refueling costs comparisons.