GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

11 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

With the ongoing energy crisis choking sources of energy, cost comparisons will increasingly favor ICE over EV, making it much more difficult to acquire an EV.

So you are saying that EV sales have peaked and will decrease from this point forward?

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

1 minute ago, turbguy said:

I live in Wyoming.  For me, it's a no-brainer for my usage.

YMMV.

You should test drive aTesla.

I am concerned about the ethical problems in some of the source materials. African labor issues.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So you are saying that EV sales have peaked and will decrease from this point forward?

As long as input costs for EVs continue to surge upwards, the cost comparisons will continue to favor ICE over EV, as shown in the paper cited here.

https://www.andersoneconomicgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EVtransition_FuelingCostStudy_10-21-21.pdf

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,391]

3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

I am concerned about the ethical problems in some of the source materials. African labor issues.

That's a valid issue.

No concern about "ethical problems" with petroleum sources?

I believe there's still plenty of petroleum used in Tesla products.

Edited October 24, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

3 minutes ago, turbguy said:

That's a valid issue.

No concern about "ethical problems" with petroleum sources?

Yes, concern about the ethical problems involved in the distortion of climate science research to attack the oil business. That is a huge ethical problem.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

As long as input costs for EVs continue to surge upwards, the cost comparisons will continue to favor ICE over EV, as shown in the paper cited above.

Well good thing EV input costs are not surging as much as the cost every time you input gasoline.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Well good thing EV input costs are not surging as much as the cost every time you input gasoline.

Where did you get that idea? With the current energy crisis, cost of electricity is going to skyrocket.

Check the cost comparisons in this recent paper above.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,391]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Yes, concern about the ethical problems involved in the distortion of climate science research to attack the oil business. That is a huge problem.

The oil business ain't going away in a hurry, no matter what "green dreamers" expect.  

That said, the oil business will eventually see a reduction in fuel usage from many consumers.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

1 minute ago, turbguy said:

The oil business ain't going away in a hurry, no matter what "green dreamers" expect.  

That said, the oil business will eventually see a reduction in fuel usage from many consumers.

The oil business will continue to grow in absolute terms, although perhaps a smaller percentage of the overall energy mix.

With the current energy crisis, all bets are off about fossil fuels declining.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,391]

41 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Where did you get that idea? With the current energy crisis, cost of electricity is going to skyrocket.

Do you realize how great that will be for renewable projects? 

You know, those that don't pay ANYTHING for "fuel"??

The ones that don't even pay to MOVE fuel?

The ones that use practically ZERO water?

The ones that uses many less "heads" per MWH??

Edited October 24, 2021 by turbguy

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

All the public frenzy about climate alarmism is not changing the high demand for oil and coal. with American coal production INCREASING this year! Wow, someone forgot to tell the U.N. about that.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Peak-Oil-Demand-Forecasts-Turn-Sour-As-Demand-Keeps-Growing.html

"Coal, which accounted for about 20% of U.S electricity in 2020, is on track to generate roughly 24% of the nation's power this year, the Energy Information Administration predicted this week. That's largely because natural gas, coal's main competitor, has gotten pricier in the past year, the agency said."

Springfield, Illinois is the state capital of Illinois. It has a very large coal plant that is owned by the city. It provides low priced power. The plumes of smoke are white and I think they have added up to date scrubbers or whatever a few years ago. Illinois is coal country and the wealthy Democrat, Governor Pritzker, has total control of both houses in the state (thanks to votes in the Chicago area), he has signed a bill that allows aged nuclear plants and coal to continue supplying Illinois power until 2035. Illinois has a lot of natural gas but nobody talks about it because the coal and nuclear folks are very generous donors to the Democrats who run the state, and also to Republicans. So, I have a coal and nuclear plant within about 40 miles of my home. I also have lots of wind turbines even closer. I have a contract with a Texas company that supplies my natural gas thankfully. 

We did have another coal plant that emitted lots of brown smoke that would reach across much of the horizon on still days. It is either closed or cleaned up now. It was south rather than west. 

My power bill includes subsidies for nuclear plants and wind turbines. 

Normally I pay almost as much for delivery of fuel as I do for the power itself. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

ICE sales continue to collapse in Europe. In less than 2 years sales of pure ICE (petrol and diesel) have gone from 85% of new market share to just 55%. https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/24/q3-saw-europes-ev-share-break-new-ground-above-20-overtake-diesel-for-first-time/

 

[turbguy + 1,391]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Springfield, Illinois is the state capital of Illinois. It has a very large coal plant that is owned by the city. It provides low priced power. The plumes of smoke are white and I think they have added up to date scrubbers or whatever a few years ago. Illinois is coal country and the wealthy Democrat, Governor Pritzker, has total control of both houses in the state (thanks to votes in the Chicago area), he has signed a bill that allows aged nuclear plants and coal to continue supplying Illinois power until 2035. Illinois has a lot of natural gas but nobody talks about it because the coal and nuclear folks are very generous donors to the Democrats who run the state, and also to Republicans. So, I have a coal and nuclear plant within about 40 miles of my home. I also have lots of wind turbines even closer. I have a contract with a Texas company that supplies my natural gas thankfully. 

We did have another coal plant that emitted lots of brown smoke that would reach across much of the horizon on still days. It is either closed or cleaned up now. It was south rather than west. 

My power bill includes subsidies for nuclear plants and wind turbines. 

Normally I pay almost as much for delivery of fuel as I do for the power itself. 

Here's your single unit remaining.  Quite a performer, but actually a small unit (these days).

https://www.powermag.com/city-of-springfields-cwlp-dallman-4-earns-powers-highest-honor/

You don't wanna know what happened at Dalman Unit #33.

Edited October 24, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

ICE sales continue to collapse in Europe. In less than 2 years sales of pure ICE (petrol and diesel) have gone from 85% of new market share to just 55%. https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/24/q3-saw-europes-ev-share-break-new-ground-above-20-overtake-diesel-for-first-time/

 

Again, Jay, as I have pointed out to you before, we need absolute numbers, not percentages of growth or new sales. The bottom line is HOW MANY.

 Percentages don't cut it.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

Here's your single unit remaining.  Quite a performer, but actually a small unit (these days).

https://www.powermag.com/city-of-springfields-cwlp-dallman-4-earns-powers-highest-honor/

You don't wanna know what happened at Dalman Unit #33.

Thanks, that was a great really in depth article. About all I knew about it was that they had made improvements and that the City of Springfield and its citizens were very happy with the cost of their power. At least before all the improvements. I am all for the improvements though. 

Please tell me about Dalman Unit #33 for comparison.

My biggest concern about modern coal plants has been the ash left over and how it is used or disposed of. I have heard stories of it flooding into rivers and groundwater both here and elsewhere. Also concern about topping mountains in Appalachia etc. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

44 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, Jay, as I have pointed out to you before, we need absolute numbers, not percentages of growth or new sales. The bottom line is HOW MANY.

 Percentages don't cut it.

Economics lesson for you: The percentage is of all new cars sold, it tells you what is growing and what is shrinking. When the new car market reaches 100% EV there will never be another ICE car. As I keep trying to tell you, all used cars start out as new cars. Used cars aren't created through abiogenesis and old cars don't last forever, They wear out and get scrapped.

Edited October 24, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,391]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Thanks, that was a great really in depth article. About all I knew about it was that they had made improvements and that the City of Springfield and its citizens were very happy with the cost of their power. At least before all the improvements. I am all for the improvements though. 

Please tell me about Dalman Unit #33 for comparison.

My biggest concern about modern coal plants has been the ash left over and how it is used or disposed of. I have heard stories of it flooding into rivers and groundwater both here and elsewhere. Also concern about topping mountains in Appalachia etc. 

Dallman Unit 33 had a battery charger for that unit's battery that failed.  This battery is typically a bank of large suitcase-sized individual cells to supply ~125 VDC for certain plant control processes, and back-up power for must-run systems during a unit transient (such as a unit trip).

The operators did not notice the battery charger failed (~ a once-per-shift visual check), and the battery capacity degraded as they slowly discharged.  A storm (last June?) tripped the unit off-line, and it lost grid power as well.   Main shaft-driven oil pumps on large units are centrifugal pumps at the shaft centerline height, and the oil reservoir is well below that level.  The shaft-driven pump "works" to about 3200 RPM, then quits as the suction supply for that pump is powered by using some of the shaft pump's oil output to drive a reservoir-mounted oil ejector or oil driven turbine-pump.  The Turbine-Generator then coasted down without back-up DC driven oil pumps starting, supplying oil to the main bearings and generator's hydrogen shaft seals. 

Nasty.  Put out the hydrogen fires, open her up, and start pouring in money....LOTS of money. I believe your Muny did some of that, and upon restart, the generator rotor developed a short or ground fault.  You can operate (with great risk) with one ground, but a second ground (which is now undetectable) will french-fry something, typically the rotor's main forging.  More money, retire it early...

Strange, there's always a 125 DC Buss voltmeter somewhere in a main control room...

There's more than just the coal ash.    There's also effluent from the wet scrubbers (typically a gypsum slurry) and the SCR system (plus handling of anhydrous ammonia, but I guess the farmers use that locally anyway).

They use city water for cooling water and boiler make-up.  I bet the plant gets a REALLY good "discount" on that.

I believe the best place for coal ash is to load it up into now-empty rail cars and ship it back to were it can from, the mines.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by turbguy

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

For the economically challenged here is an example of the plummeting pure ICE sales in absolute terms:

In January 2020 Germany, the world's fourth largest new car market, sold 207K ICE vehicles. In September 2021 Germany sold 102K ICE vehicles. Over 50% decrease in ICE sales in less than two yeas, oops those darn percentages again.

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,391]

Need areas for solar panels?

How 'bout some farms..

https://www.wired.com/story/growing-crops-under-solar-panels-now-theres-a-bright-idea/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Economics lesson for you: The percentage is of all new cars sold, it tells you what is growing and what is shrinking. When the new car market reaches 100% EV there will never be another ICE car. As I keep trying to tell you, all used cars start out as new cars. Used cars aren't created through abiogenesis and old cars don't last forever, They wear out and get scrapped.

We need percentage of all cars sold, that is the key, what are people really purchasing on the market. The used car market perpetuates the ICE vehicles through recirculation, they can last twenty years. 

EV as a percentage of total vehicle stock is miniscule. Less than 1% here. ABSOLUTE NUMBERS, please.  No wonder you keep running back to Germany, an odd place for energy policy. They are in trouble now. Self-inflicted energy crisis, caused by climate panic. Sad case, really.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

6 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

We need percentage of all cars sold, that is the key, what are people really purchasing on the market. The used car market perpetuates the ICE vehicles through recirculation, they can last twenty years. 

EV as a percentage of total vehicle stock is miniscule. Less than 1% here. ABSOLUTE NUMBERS, please.  No wonder you keep running back to Germany, an odd place for energy policy. They are in trouble now. Self-inflicted energy crisis, caused by climate panic. Sad case, really.

The used car market does not create more used cars because they are bought and sold. The percentage of used cars sold is irrelevant. The only sales that matter are new cars because those are the only sales that add to the vehicle stock.

Yes cars last 20 years and 10 years after a new car market reaches 100% EV the stock of cars will be 50% EV. Ten years after that it will be 100% EV. Actually I checked and the average age of a car in China is only 5 years so they will be 100% stock of EVs just 10 years after reaching new car EV sales of 100%. 

Europe and China will be at 100% new EV within 5 years. The US will be there within 10 years and the rest of the world in 15.

 

 

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

On 10/23/2021 at 3:46 AM, ronwagn said:

 

Five to ten years to build?

Unfortunately yes Ron

Hinkley C is being built with Sizewell C next and Wylfa also soon to have the green light.

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

On 10/24/2021 at 7:03 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Another record month for EVs in China (the world's largest new car market).

Plugin vehicles are all the rage in China, having scored 355,000 registrations in September, a full 24% increase over the previous record, which was set in the previous month of August. In fact, September was the 3rd record month in the last 4 months!

That pulls the year-to-date (YTD) tally to close to 2 million units, and with further record months set to come through December, we should have over 3 million registrations by the end of the year … almost three times as many as the 2020 result!

Share-wise, with September having a record month and the overall auto market dropping 17% year over year (YoY), market share jumped through the roof, hitting a record 20% (17% full electrics/BEVs).https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/22/record-month-for-plugin-vehicle-sales-in-china/

Yes Jay but there are 365 million vehicles on China roads so 2 million EV's is a drop in the ocean

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/china/2020-q3-china-total-number-of-cars-and-drivers/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Yes Jay but there are 365 million vehicles on China roads so 2 million EV's is a drop in the ocean

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/china/2020-q3-china-total-number-of-cars-and-drivers/

(sigh) It is about the growth rate. In a few years it will be 15 or 20 million new EVs a year and the Chinese vehicle stock will be fully replaced with EVs in 10 to 20 years. 

China had 365 million motorized vehicles on the road, including around 280 million cars,

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Hertz orders 100,000 Teslas in deal reportedly worth $4.2 billion

Hertz now plans to electrify nearly all of its roughly 500,000 cars and vans, with the Tesla order comprising a significant first chunk.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/25/22744504/hertz-tesla-order-100000-vehicles-electrify-fleet