GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

All nonsensical projections...get a hold of some real numbers. Costs for EV inputs are already skyrocketing and pushing up EV prices, that will place a limit on the possible market size for EVs.

The real numbers show that the predictions so far are very accurate.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

LFP batteries don't use nickel.

Whatever is used will skyrocket in price if any attempt is made to seriously ramp up production.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The real numbers show that the predictions so far are very accurate.

The real numbers show rapidly escalating costs for inputs, and that limits the possible market penetration.

That is why even ecstatic believers like yourself do not buy an EV. That is the proof of the pudding.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

The new frontier for young workers looking for highly paid work is...yes, the coal industry.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Workers-Wanted-Miners-Offered-100k-Per-Year-As-Coal-Prices-Soar.html

"with surging natural gas, coal, and oil prices heading into winter, it appears the transition will take decades, not years, because renewable energy is not reliable, as the UK found out the hard way late in the summer when its wind turbine generation plunged forcing it to power up natgas generators to protect the grid from collapse.  What this suggests is there are many jobs available in the fossil fuel space.  "There's a perception that the coal industry, if not dead, is dying," Ernie Thrasher, chief executive officer of Xcoal Energy & Resources LLC, a Pennsylvania coal trader that works with several suppliers. said. "Young people just have many more choices." Mining companies are getting creative in hiring, said Rich Nolan, CEO of the National Mining Association trade group. Along with higher pay, some firms offer benefits like daycare. "Everyone is scraping for employees," Nolan said. "They're using every trick in the book to attract qualified workers." Some mining firms are desperate enough that they are offering $100k per year for new talent.  Miners might not meet the surge in demand due to years of decommissioning mines to reduce carbon emissions and transition the economy from fossil fuels to green energy. A sustainable energy transition will likely take decades, not years:  "There is an energy transition taking place," said Xcoal's Thrasher. "But it's going to take longer than people think."

To sum up, Asia and Europe need fossil fuels as the green energy transition is unreliable, triggering one of the great power crunches the world has ever seen. But the US might come up empty handed as labor shortages plague the industry. "

Edited November 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

16 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The real numbers show rapidly escalating costs for inputs, and that limits the possible market penetration.

That is why even ecstatic believers like yourself do not buy an EV. That is the proof of the pudding.

The real market numbers are what matter not your attempts to distract from them by making the story about me.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The real market numbers are what matter not your attempts to distract from them by making the story about me.

You gave me the story, Jay.  And the rapidly rising EV input costs are real, that is no joke.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

18 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Whatever is used will skyrocket in price if any attempt is made to seriously ramp up production.

And then more of that element will get mined. That is how the market works.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

You gave me the story, Jay.  And the rapidly rising EV input costs are real, that is no joke.

They still haven't gone up as much as the oil input cost for ICE has.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

LFP batteries don't use nickel.

Nickel is definitely a problem.

"But analysts at Rystad think nickel’s scarcity might compromise EVs’ public image. As miners seek out new sources of nickel, they wrote, controversies over the social and environmental impacts of nickel production could mushroom, and potentially "tarnish" manufacturers of electric cars, wrote analysts at the Norway-based consultancy. Carmakers might increasingly look to "previously unattractive sources,” including deposits located in Indonesia — the world’s biggest producer of nickel, but a place with a shaky record of protecting local ecosystems from nickel’s waste streams, said Ley. The global standard-bearer for electric cars, Tesla Inc., has already made early overtures to Indonesian officials about acquiring supplies there. The company’s chief executive, Elon Musk, said earlier this year that nickel was his "biggest concern" in scaling up production of lithium-ion batteries, spurring Tesla to partner with major mining company BHP to lock up supplies. Some carmakers "might be reluctant to get tied up with Indonesia when looking at new supplies,” wrote Ley in an email to E&E News, but they’ll face competition for supplies from the stainless steel industry, which remains the biggest source of demand for nickel.

"So this is definitely a problem," he wrote."

https://www.eenews.net/articles/nickel-shortage-spells-trouble-for-evs-report/

Edited November 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Nickel is definitely a problem.

"But analysts at Rystad think nickel’s scarcity might compromise EVs’ public image. As miners seek out new sources of nickel, they wrote, controversies over the social and environmental impacts of nickel production could mushroom, and potentially "tarnish" manufacturers of electric cars, wrote analysts at the Norway-based consultancy. Carmakers might increasingly look to "previously unattractive sources,” including deposits located in Indonesia — the world’s biggest producer of nickel, but a place with a shaky record of protecting local ecosystems from nickel’s waste streams, said Ley. The global standard-bearer for electric cars, Tesla Inc., has already made early overtures to Indonesian officials about acquiring supplies there. The company’s chief executive, Elon Musk, said earlier this year that nickel was his "biggest concern" in scaling up production of lithium-ion batteries, spurring Tesla to partner with major mining company BHP to lock up supplies. Some carmakers "might be reluctant to get tied up with Indonesia when looking at new supplies,” wrote Ley in an email to E&E News, but they’ll face competition for supplies from the stainless steel industry, which remains the biggest source of demand for nickel.

"So this is definitely a problem," he wrote."

LFP batteries don't use nickel.

Indonesian nickel is better than Indonesian coal.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Oil markets are still in a long-term upswing.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Rally-Reverses-On-Signs-Of-Cooling-Demand.html

"Craig Johnson, chief market strategist at Piper Sandler, says the oil price rally still has plenty of room to run. "We're coming into the winter months and it looks like to me, from looking at an oil chart, we could see oil above the $90 level. It could be closer to $110 to $115," Johnson has told CNBC. "The energy crunch is still nowhere close to subsiding, so we expect prevailing strength in oil prices in November and December as supply lags demand and as OPEC+ stays on the sidelines," Rystad Energy's Louise Dickson has told Reuters. Earlier, Goldman Sachs, which had forecast Brent at $90, said the benchmark could even top that by the end of the year."

Edited November 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Oil markets are still in a long-term upswing.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Rally-Reverses-On-Signs-Of-Cooling-Demand.html

"Craig Johnson, chief market strategist at Piper Sandler, says the oil price rally still has plenty of room to run. "We're coming into the winter months and it looks like to me, from looking at an oil chart, we could see oil above the $90 level. It could be closer to $110 to $115," Johnson has told CNBC. "The energy crunch is still nowhere close to subsiding, so we expect prevailing strength in oil prices in November and December as supply lags demand and as OPEC+ stays on the sidelines," Rystad Energy's Louise Dickson has told Reuters. Earlier, Goldman Sachs, which had forecast Brent at $90, said the benchmark could even top that by the end of the year."

Rising input costs are bad news for ICE sales but great for EVs.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

LFP batteries don't use nickel.

"The outlook for lithium's fundamentals is, if anything, even more worrying. Rio Tinto recently forecast that under net-zero commitments, lithium demand would come to substantially exceed supply in the coming years, creating a hard-to-fill gap. The reason it will be hard to fill is that existing lithium projects would only be able to contribute about a million tons of supply annually while demand is seen growing to 3 million tons, from just 300,000 tons today."

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

Rising input costs are bad news for ICE sales but great for EVs.

EVs costs are skyrocketing, electricity supplies from renewables are a disaster.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

"The outlook for lithium's fundamentals is, if anything, even more worrying. Rio Tinto recently forecast that under net-zero commitments, lithium demand would come to substantially exceed supply in the coming years, creating a hard-to-fill gap. The reason it will be hard to fill is that existing lithium projects would only be able to contribute about a million tons of supply annually while demand is seen growing to 3 smillion tons, from just 300,000 tons today."

Still way less than the rising oil input cost for ICE.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Still way less than the rising oil input cost for ICE.

No, when we start, or rather IF we start to ramp up production of EVs the costs will rise exponentially, as I showed you in the post above. Unmeetable production gaps will send the cost of lithium to the stratosphere.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

No, when we start, or rather IF we start to ramp up production of EVs the costs will rise exponentially, as I showed you in the post above.

You didn't show me anything. However:

• Global electric car sales for Sept. 2021 - Up 98% YoY, a record 10.2% share. China sales up 171% YoY to 20% share. Europe sales up 42% YoY to 23% share.
• EV market news - UK car sales plunge but EVs soar to record amid fuel crisis. 
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464874-ev-company-news-for-the-month-of-october-2021

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

You didn't show me anything. However:

• Global electric car sales for Sept. 2021 - Up 98% YoY, a record 10.2% share. China sales up 171% YoY to 20% share. Europe sales up 42% YoY to 23% share.
• EV market news - UK car sales plunge but EVs soar to record amid fuel crisis. 
• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464874-ev-company-news-for-the-month-of-october-2021

Again, you are not showing anything here, we need numbers of vehicles not percentages, which show us nothing. That point seems to be over your head, Jay.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

38 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, you are not showing anything here, we need numbers of vehicles not percentages, which show us nothing. That point seems to be over your head, Jay.

Sorry but I was taught how to understand percentages in my economics training as are other real economists and business analysts. That is why so many numbers are reported in percentages. Global new vehicle EV sales Up 98% YoY, a record 10.2% share, is quite self explanatory.

 

But maybe I can help you out. What the percentages mean is that last October, 5 of every 100 new car sales was an EV and this October, 10 of every 100 new car sales was an EV. See it isn't that hard to understand.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

33 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sorry but I was taught how to understand percentages in my economics training as are other real economists and business analysts. That is why so many numbers are reported in percentages. Global new vehicle EV sales Up 98% YoY, a record 10.2% share, is quite self explanatory.

 

But maybe I can help you out. What the percentages mean is that last October, 5 of every 100 new car sales was an EV and this October, 10 of every 100 new car sales was an EV. See it isn't that hard to understand.

It means that a tiny, tiny miniscule percentage  of less than one percent of rolling stock of vehicles in America and China are EV. To ramp up to any sizeable percentage of stock requires exponential cost increases for battery inputs.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

"The outlook for lithium's fundamentals is, if anything, even more worrying. Rio Tinto recently forecast that under net-zero commitments, lithium demand would come to substantially exceed supply in the coming years, creating a hard-to-fill gap. The reason it will be hard to fill is that existing lithium projects would only be able to contribute about a million tons of supply annually while demand is seen growing to 3 million tons, from just 300,000 tons today."

Lithium is a very common element especially where they buy them in California, so all they have to do is allow mining.😉

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/11/cop26_world_leaders_tell_us_do_as_we_say_or_well_let_you_all_die.html

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Lithium is a very common element especially where they buy them in California, so all they have to do is allow mining.😉

I hear that is the big problem, the mining is very dirty and toxic to humans. That puts a severe limit on supply of lithium. And cobalt is needed to keep batteries from overheating and catching on fire, cobalt being in weak supply.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

I hear that is the big problem, the mining is very dirty and toxic to humans. That puts a severe limit on supply of lithium. And cobalt is needed to keep batteries from overheating and catching on fire, cobalt being in weak supply.

LFP batteries don't use cobalt and they are less likely to catch on fire than batteries that use cobalt.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2021/11/04/wall-street-journal-climate-deaths-hit-record-low-in-2021/

and see https://www.lomborg.com/

Wall Street Journal: Climate Deaths Hit Record Low in 2021

1

Edited November 4, 2021 by ronwagn
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