GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

What is even weirder is that you respond to a post where I was talking about their profit margins and you can't figure it out. I do own Tesla.

You own "Tesla" (stocks?) or "a Tesla"?  Last time you said you owned a second-hand BMW..so what is reality for you, Jay? Stocks or vehicles?

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yet people are lining up to buy them. It is almost as if they know something you don't.  Each one sold will be one less ICE pickup sold.

Again, without major infrastructure rebuild, and public bankruptcy, this means nothing.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Again, without major infrastructure rebuild, and public bankruptcy, this means nothing.

What sort of expenditures are you thinking of that need to take place?  Genuinely curious.  Tesla seems to be fine without all these extra expenses. Why does Ford need them?

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

15 hours ago, notsonice said:

EVs in North America picking up steam.......

 

please note the real new news.......

All told, the automaker has bumped up spending plans for BEVs to $30 billion through 2030, about 250% more than it had committed to as recently as mid-2021........

 

personally I am waiting for an all electric all wheel drive Ford Escape (basic needs is a 120 mile charge) which will replace a 2003 Ford Escape which has only a few more years of life.......already getting ready with the installation of a 240 volt line/outlet(s) for chargers in my garage and conduits to a 1000 square foot flat roof above the garage for solar panels .....Battery shelves are going in this winter for storage ......2 DC powered ac/heat pumps in the works to be placed atop garage for cooling heating house.

 

All-Electric Mach-E Nearly Outsells Gas-Powered Mustang as Ford Accelerates EV Push

Ford now second in BEV market to Tesla — but holding that spot could be a challenge.

Paul A. Eisenstein , Publisher & Editor-in-Chief

Dec. 06, 2021

 

Until recently an also-ran in the battery-electric vehicle market, Ford Motor Co. is on the fast track to become the emerging segment’s second-largest player — though it will face a tough battle during the next couple years as competitors flood the market with new offerings.

Sales of the Mustang Mach-E have been on the rise, challenging not only other to EVs, but its sibling Mustang coupe.

In a surprise development, Ford’s first long-range BEV, the Mustang Mach-E SUV, nearly outsold the conventional, gas-powered Mustang coupe in November. And, even though it won’t launch production of its next all-electric model until next June, the F-150 Lightning appears off to a good start. Even after announcing it will double production capacity for the battery-powered pickup, it’s likely to take Ford until well into 2023 before it could meet the advance reservations it already has on hand.

While Tesla continues to dominate the battery-electric vehicle sales charts, primarily with its Models 3 and Y, the Mach-E has sharply cut into its market share this year and could gain even more momentum with the addition of two new variants, the GT and GT Performance Pack.

An unexpected hit

There was plenty of skepticism when Ford introduced the Mach-E in 2020 — especially inside the company where many members of the Mustang team questioned the wisdom of using the iconic pony badge on an SUV, never mind an electric one. And more than a few traditional buyers took to social media to air their grievances.

But such concerns quickly vanished as Mach-E started nabbing awards — among other things being named North American Utility Vehicle of the Year. And sales quickly took off. By mid-2021, demand was starting to outstrip the conventional pony car.

The Ford Mustang is outselling its all-electric namesake — but only by a bit as the Mach-E’s proven very popular.

All told, buyers drove off with 6,797 Mustang-badged vehicles in November, including 3,008 of the BEVs. That was the second-best month Mach-E has had, and represents 2% of Ford’s total U.S. sales for the month, a significant showing for a single battery-powered car. Since January, motorists have purchased 24,794 of the electric SUVs.

Add in the automaker’s plug-in and conventional hybrids and, it reported, “Ford’s electrified vehicle sales in November grew at a rate more than three times faster than the overall electrified vehicle segment, taking Ford’s electrified vehicle share to 10% compared to 5.4% last year.This set up a record November on sales of 11,116 electrified vehicles — up 153.6 percent” compared to the prior year.

A grain of salt, perhaps?

The surge of the Mach-E should be viewed with caution, however. Like the rest of the industry, Ford had to idle most of its factories at one point or another this year due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages. But Ford “is putting its semiconductors where it thinks they can help the most,” said Stephanie Brinley, principal auto analyst with IHS Markit, and that has left production of the Mach-E continue virtually uninterrupted.

The Mustang Mach-E’s sales pushed past the Chevy Bolt EV last month.

The story is quite different for Mach-E’s most direct rival. In November, the Ford BEV pushed past the Chevrolet Bolt EV on the sales charts — though that’s at least partially the result of the recalls the Chevy model has experienced. Production of the Bolt was put on hold last month so parent General Motors could address battery-fire problems. A modified battery pack has, for now, been redirected to serve as the replacement for faulty packs for Bolts already on the road. But the Bolt plant in Orion Township, Michigan won’t be back up and running until early next year.

It remains to be seen whether the Chevy model can regain traction in the face of the negative publicity generated by a series of battery fires.

Ford ups its EV aspirations

The strong demand for the Mach-E, as well as the 160,000 reservations confirmed for the F-150 Lightning, have buoyed Ford’s commitment to the battery-car market, CEO Jim Farley told TheDetroitBureau.com in September, following the announcement of a massive manufacturing site Memphis, as well as two new battery plants in nearby Kentucky.

Ford CEO Jim Farley’s been upping the amount the automaker will spend on its electrification program. It’s now at $30 billion by 2030.

All told, the automaker has bumped up spending plans for BEVs to $30 billion through 2030, about 250% more than it had committed to as recently as mid-2021.

“This is a really pivotal moment for us,” as Ford rapidly shifts its attention away from internal combustion technology, said Lisa Drake, Ford’s chief operating officer, North America, at an investor conference last week.

The automaker has confirmed it has a battery-powered Lincoln SUV, as well as an all-electric Transit van in the works. Beyond that, its specific production plans are still somewhat hazy. It has yet to offer the level of detail provided by key competitors like GM.

Plenty of challengers lining up

The largest of the Detroit automakers is just rolling out the new GMC Hummer EV. The pickup is the first GM model using the automaker’s new Ultium batteries and one of several new, skateboard-like architectures. The all-electric Cadillac Lyriq will follow next year with GM planning to have as many as 30 BEVs in production by mid-decade — though not all will be available in the U.S. market.

Then there’s Volkswagen which introduced its first long-range BEV for the American market, the ID.4. That electric SUV currently is being imported from Europe but production will launch next year after a major expansion at the VW plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Ford CEO Jim Farley talked a bit about the company’s EV plans at the celebration for Blue Oval City — a $5.5 billion EV investment.

VW has, by far, announced the most aggressive commitment of any manufacturer to go electric, at more than $110 billion this decade. And its CEO Herbert Diess recently confirmed that more models will target the States due to growing demand.

Still more to come

And there are plenty of other competitors coming. Kia hopes to duplicate Ford’s success with the EV6 SUV that is also up for honors as this year’s North American Utility Vehicle of the Year. The Lucid Air, meanwhile, is vying for Car of the Year honors, while the Rivian R1T is one of three finalists in the Truck of the Year category.

Between autumn 2020 and December 2022, TheDetroitBureau.com forecast, the number of all-electric models sold in the U.S. alone will roughly quadruple, to at least 50.

So, there’ll be plenty of other new products looking to push past Ford’s Mustang Mach-E — and take a run at the BEV market’s real dominant force, Tesla.

 

Again, all this advert blurbing is off topic, which was the supply constraints on cobalt. None of this can take off without major price inflation for cobalt, which shrinks the market to miniscule levels.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Impossible without major infrastructure rebuilding, not in my lifetime.

Taxpayers will not support that level of rebuild.

So you don't plan on living another 3 years?  You are such a dumb, 123,000 BEV were registered in California over just the first nine months of this year. Not to mention that the gov't funding for chargers has already been signed into law.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 minute ago, Eric Gagen said:

What sort of expenditures are you thinking of that need to take place?  Genuinely curious.  Tesla seems to be fine without all these extra expenses. Why does Ford need them?

Which neighborhoods can plug in EVs for overnight charging? Answer: NONE without rebuilding the electric supply infrastructure...which means public bankruptcy. And again the limited cobalt supplies constrains the possible market size to a miniscule range...these are just dreams.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So you don't plan on living another 3 years?  You are such a dumb, 123,000 BEV were registered in California over just the first nine months of this year. Not to mention that the gov't funding for chargers has already been signed into law.

You are wandering way off topic, Jay, as usual. For any existing neighborhood to overnight charge, we need universal infrastructure rebuild, and public bankruptcy.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

You are wandering way off topic, Jay, as usual. For any existing neighborhood to overnight charge, we need universal infrastructure rebuild, and public bankruptcy.

Yet they seem to be doing it just fine. It is almost as if you are just babbling nonsense. 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yet they seem to be doing it just fine. It is almost as if you are just babbling nonsense. 

Again, you are attempting to change the topic...which neighborhoods can overnight charge?  Answer: NONE. Widespread EV use is not possible without public bankruptcy.

Here is what is relevant to every driver,

Oil demand looks exceedingly healthy going forward into 2022 and decades beyond.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/JP-Morgan-Predicts-The-End-Of-Covid-A-Strong-Economy-And-125-Oil.html

"A vibrant economy means robust demand for oil, and JP Morgan even said last week that crude oil prices could soar to $125 per barrel in 2022 and $150 in 2023 due to OPEC's limited capacity to boost production.

The Omicron variant that has spooked markets over the past two weeks could be the beginning of the end of the pandemic, JP Morgan strategists Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan wrote in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.

If the new variant turns out to be less deadly, it would fit the historical patterns of virus evolution. This would be bullish for risk markets as it could suggest the end of the pandemic is in sight, the strategists said."

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Again, you are attempting to change the topic...which neighborhoods can overnight charge?  Answer" NONE. Widespread EV use is not possible without public bankruptcy.

Basically all the neighborhoods can. You are just babbling nonsense.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Basically all the neighborhoods can. You are just babbling nonsense.

Not at all, the capacity of current cities to support universal overnight charging is ZERO without a major rebuild.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Not at all the capacity of current cities to support universal overnight charging is ZERO without a major rebuild.

Complete nonsense. 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Complete nonsense. 

Check the numbers before you spout more of your complete nonsense, Jay,

And the types of vehicles being discussed above are all cobalt-dependent, which means that capacity constraints will derail any attempt to produce worthwhile EVs.

Now, answer the question about your Tesla "ownings"...stocks or actual vehicles? I guess a straight answer on this question is still a problem for you, Jay?

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Check the numbers before you spout more of your complete nonsense, Jay,

And the types of vehicles being discussed above are all cobalt-dependent, which means that capacity constraints will derail any attempt to produce worthwhile EVs.

Meanwhile EV sales just keep skyrocketing.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Meanwhile EV sales just keep skyrocketing.

Answer the questions, Jay, and stop avoiding the issues. 

1) A complete electric infrastructure rebuild is necessary for universal EV ownership.

2) Cobalt constraints limit the EVs market capability to a miniscule level.

3) Do you own Tesla "stocks" or a Tesla "vehicle"? No more shilly-shallying.

Now, stop squirming and answer the questions.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

Answer the questions, Jay, and stop avoiding the issues. 

1) A complete electric infrastructure rebuild is necessary for universal EV ownership.

2) Cobalt constraints limit the EVs market capability to a miniscule level.

3) Do you own Tesla "stocks" or a Tesla "vehicle"? I want a straight answer from you.

Now, stop squirming and answer the questions.

I have answered your dumb questions over and over. Meanwhile EV sales continue to skyrocket.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I have answered your dumb questions over and over. Meanwhile EV sales continue to skyrocket.

You have avoided answering these questions, Jay. But I am  not surprised by that, it is typical of Green propaganda.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Here is what is really relevant for American auto drivers,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Investment-Must-Rise-To-525-Billion-Per-Year-To-Avoid-Supply-Crunch.html

"This year, upstream investment is still depressed, for a second year in a row, and is estimated at around $341 billion. This is almost 25 percent below the investment levels of the last “normal” year in 2019, says the report from IHS Markit and IEF, which is the world’s largest international organization of energy ministers from 71 countries including both producing and consuming nations.

While investments in oil and gas exploration and production continue to be depressed, global demand is “now near pre-pandemic highs and will continue to rise for the next several years, particularly in developing countries,” according to the report titled “Investment Crisis Threatens Energy Security.”

The next two years will be critical for the sanctioning of new projects to make sure that there is enough supply coming online within five to six years, the report noted.

“Insufficient upstream investment would result in more price volatility and spur adverse economic consequences,” IHS Markit and IEF say.

The report echoes the concern of many industry professionals, who have said in recent months that underinvestment in oil and gas threatens future energy supply because oil and gas will be consumed for decades to come, regardless of the pace of the energy transition.

A rushed transition into renewable energy would cause spiraling inflation and social unrest, Amin Nasser, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco, warned at the World Petroleum Congress in Texas this week, noting that investments in oil and gas needed to continue in order to avoid such a scenario."

Edited December 8, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

35 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Which neighborhoods can plug in EVs for overnight charging? Answer: NONE without rebuilding the electric supply infrastructure...which means public bankruptcy. And again the limited cobalt supplies constrains the possible market size to a miniscule range...these are just dreams.

mine can. Every house has 200Amp 220/240V electric panels in the garage, 10-20 ft away from where you would need to tie in a EV charger.  So do all the neighborhoods around mine.  So can basically all of them that have been built out since the early 90's, so at least half without lifting a finger.   Charging at night pretty much takes care of load issues - I live in a hot place - max load is air conditioning during the day, so night time power is dramatically underutilized.  

Cobalt is, and isn't an issue.  I actually looked into it from an investment point of view (looking for mining company stocks to buy) and it's not really a limiting factor.  There is a LOT of it in the ground.  The way it comes up is extraordinarily unpleasant though - basically a lot of 'artisan' miners in the Congo provide about 1/2 the world supply.  Ironically, the only way to fix that is for demand, and price to go up at least somewhat.  If/when demand and price picks up, then it will be worthwhile to sort the mess out.  

However Cobalt demand for/from electric  vehicles is not assured - there are a lot of replacements for Cobalt, or ways to make the batteries with less Cobalt.  If the price of Cobalt gets too high, or the political issues involved with getting it become overly unpleasant it won't get used.  

The big potential production constraint is Lithium.  Production can be increased almost without limit because reserves are collosal, but the time it will take to do that is definitely an issue - it takes a while to get a hard rock or evaporation operation up and running, and the market for lithium right now is small compared to what it will become and growing fast.  The price of Lithium will see booms and busts in the coming 10-20 years, but in the end it will be a massive industry, and all the current players will be huge profitable organizations, so I invested in that, because it will win under basically all scenarios - all electric vehicle batteries use lithium..  

The other big potential constraint is copper.  Copper is already under heavy production and price pressure, and my estimate is that the takeoff of electric vehicles will double copper demand.  If you want to make money in electric cars, invest in copper.  You may or may not get the battery chemistry right, but the motors and wiring up the batteries will take a LOT of copper.  

Edited December 8, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

You have avoided answering these questions, Jay. But I am  not surprised by that, it is typical of Green propaganda.

Not propaganda,the skyrocketing growth of EV sales is a well documented fact.

Edited December 9, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,397]

6 hours ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

In the mud? You're fucked, and so will anyone that pulls a trailer with a battery powered truck. 

I have to question if you have a firm understanding concerning the different characteristics of reciprocating combustion engines vs. electric motors...

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,397]

6 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Not at all, the capacity of current cities to support universal overnight charging is ZERO without a major rebuild.

You do know about daily load curves, no?

Electric vehicles with smart chargers can provide a HUGE advantage toward leveling the demand curve for a majority of the day.  Not all days, but most of them.

Could there be upgrades required to some older distribution circuits? Yes.

Same thing happened when AC became popular.

Except with these loads, grid VAR requirements will be more manageable than with AC.

And if load relief is required, start with blacking out crypto-mining...

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by turbguy

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

I have to question if you have a firm understanding concerning the different characteristics of reciprocating combustion engines vs. electric motors...

 

In the mud with a half ton, regardless of what powers the vehicle, is going to have a rough time because of the terrain and its light suspension and clearance. That's my hobby. I build rock bouncers and mud trucks for fun. Try to tell me something I don't know.

Further, @Jay McKinsey, this is exactly what I was talking about; a battery powered 1/2 ton, that's heavier than its ICE cousins, rated for 10,000lbs pulling a trailer that weighs 2000lbs with a bobcat that weighs 9000lbs with all the gear that goes with it, is going to have its range retarded by over 50%. That "300mi" range is now much less than 150mi. Add winter conditions and traffic? Yeah. About 50mi. Just like I said in the first place. 

Thanks for coming out. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by QuarterCenturyVet

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

yeah - not really the 'key' point, but it does tie together in one way:  An F150 lightening is about as good for pulling as a non electric F150.  There are limits on both of them but they aren't really any worse.  Now range when pulling a load is a different matter, and I guarantee the electric one won't go as far on a tank/charge.  

Your final point is what I was saying in the first place. Besides, if a 1/2 ton weighs as much as a 3/4 ton without the suspension, clearance and range; what's the point of attempting to use it for work payloads? 

This Lightning F150 is just a status and virtue signal. No serious tradespeople will purchase one for real work. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

10 minutes ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

In the mud with a half ton, regardless of what powers the vehicle, is going to have a rough time because of the terrain and its light suspension and clearance. That's my hobby. I build rock bouncers and mud trucks for fun. Try to tell me something I don't know.

Further, @Jay McKinsey, this is exactly what I was talking about; a battery powered 1/2 ton, that's heavier than its ICE cousins, rated for 10,000lbs pulling a trailer that weighs 2000lbs with a bobcat that weighs 9000lbs with all the gear that goes with it, is going to have its range retarded by over 50%. That "300mi" range is now much less than 150mi. Add winter conditions and traffic? Yeah. About 50mi. Just like I said in the first place. 

Thanks for coming out. 

You are really great at making numbers up. Oh and since you don't know how EVs work, traffic doesn't affect them like it does ICE because of regenerative breaking. That is why EVs have better city mileage than highway.