GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

13 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

"Will not" is not the same as "did not" Wait for the actual filing. Or a bit after, even. Last time, they also called it something like "one time emergency capital expenditure" that came announced after the annual results. (and zeroed out the profits)

The new company is like the King of European panel vans and lowest-end econoboxes, all of which were previously very small diesels. How the hell are they supposed to become zero-emission overnight? Most of the customers don't have any charging infrastructure for EV.

If I see this actually happening, it would mean some kind of deal was brokered directly with the EU. So far, I see a lot of propaganda against buying specifically a diesel car, that's it.

In Q3 Tesla made 1.6B net profit and only 279M came from credits. Deal with it.

Diesel is dead!

Battery-electric car sales overtook diesel for the first time in Europe, the Financial Times reported Sunday.

This is an important milestone, as diesel has been the default choice for European car buyers for decades. Registrations of new "electrified" vehicles—including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electric cars combined—pushed past diesel in September 2020, but this is the first time battery-electric models have outsold diesels on their own, the report said.

 

In December 2021, more than one fifth of new cars sold across 18 European markets were all-electric, while diesel cars (including diesel hybrids) accounted for less than 19% of sales, according to the report, which is based on data compiled by the Financial Times and independent auto analyst Matthias Schmidt.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1134774_battery-electric-car-sales-finally-overtook-the-diesel-institution-in-europe

 

 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

If the repair requires more than mobile support can do then the car goes to a service center. I guess that is rocket science for you.

Lo and behold and the competitive advantage for works team compared to a 3rd party app disappears. Somebody, say Uber or Yelp, could manage competing mechanics to come by and take a look at your vehicle, should it be something trivial. The automotive telemetry interfaces are largely open standards. This will surely reveal that them coming to you is not necessarily any cheaper then you coming to them.

Rocketry is actually tremendously easy, as far as scientific-like activities go. In this sense, yes, it is quite simple. Otherwise, it is a stupid American proverb.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In Q3 Tesla made 1.6B net profit and only 279M came from credits. Deal with it.

Diesel is dead!

Battery-electric car sales overtook diesel for the first time in Europe, the Financial Times reported Sunday.

This is an important milestone, as diesel has been the default choice for European car buyers for decades. Registrations of new "electrified" vehicles—including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electric cars combined—pushed past diesel in September 2020, but this is the first time battery-electric models have outsold diesels on their own, the report said.

 

In December 2021, more than one fifth of new cars sold across 18 European markets were all-electric, while diesel cars (including diesel hybrids) accounted for less than 19% of sales, according to the report, which is based on data compiled by the Financial Times and independent auto analyst Matthias Schmidt.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1134774_battery-electric-car-sales-finally-overtook-the-diesel-institution-in-europe

 

 

EU energy crisis deepens as France and Germany ‘make a mockery' of green transition plan

Head of Oil and Gas Research at Investec Nathan Piper described the prices as "phenomenally high", adding that gas prices were now 10 times higher than the US in Europe.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1539643/eu-news-energy-crisis-deepens-france-germany-green-taxonomy-nuclear-gas

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

3 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Lo and behold and the competitive advantage for works team compared to a 3rd party app disappears. Somebody, say Uber or Yelp, could manage competing mechanics to come by and take a look at your vehicle, should it be something trivial. The automotive telemetry interfaces are largely open standards. This will surely reveal that them coming to you is not necessarily any cheaper then you coming to them.

Rocketry is actually tremendously easy, as far as scientific-like activities go. In this sense, yes, it is quite simple. Otherwise, it is a stupid American proverb.

You apparently can't comprehend the concept of a warranty. If it is a warranty repair then it is free and very convenient if mobile support can fix it. If it isn't a warranty repair then go to any mechanic.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You apparently can't comprehend the concept of a warranty. If it is a warranty repair then it is free and very convenient if mobile support can fix it. If it isn't a warranty repair then go to any mechanic.

It is quite apparent you have no concept of auto infrastructure and the costs. Moblie repair, Jay stay in theory analytics you fair much better there.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

It is quite apparent you have no concept of auto infrastructure and the costs. Moblie repair, Jay stay in theory analytics you fair much better there.

Even more apparent is that you have no concept of the maintenance difference between an EV and ICE.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

In Q3 Tesla made 1.6B net profit and only 279M came from credits. Deal with it.

Diesel is dead!

Battery-electric car sales overtook diesel for the first time in Europe, the Financial Times reported Sunday.

This is an important milestone, as diesel has been the default choice for European car buyers for decades. Registrations of new "electrified" vehicles—including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electric cars combined—pushed past diesel in September 2020, but this is the first time battery-electric models have outsold diesels on their own, the report said.

 

In December 2021, more than one fifth of new cars sold across 18 European markets were all-electric, while diesel cars (including diesel hybrids) accounted for less than 19% of sales, according to the report, which is based on data compiled by the Financial Times and independent auto analyst Matthias Schmidt.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1134774_battery-electric-car-sales-finally-overtook-the-diesel-institution-in-europe

 

 

It is dead for as long as pork barrel of zero-emission subsidies rolls. It is only really over when EV ownership wins without the subsides.

These figures also don't correspond to my immediate observables. Most people I know still drive diesel cars. Some drive on gas. I don't know anybody who owns an EV. Seen some rich Teslas, of course, belonging to some rich people who's got their own driveway to park at. I drive a car share (BMW and Mercedes works offering) Very few of their cars are EV and their number seems to be getting less.

There is absolutely no way they can put enough charging infrastructure in anytime soon. It is so in any European city, where people tend to live in apartments and park their vehicles wherever there is space. In the business centers, the parking is metered by minutes. Not enough to recharge, even if they managed to squeeze a charging device into everywhere. (Which is a challenge in itself, given the power requirements. The residential-grade wiring is not up to the task anywhere I see)

I suspect the reported sales come from something like VW e-Up, a vehicle obviously made just for the quota, ready to be recalled and junked.

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

17 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

EU energy crisis deepens as France and Germany ‘make a mockery' of green transition plan

Head of Oil and Gas Research at Investec Nathan Piper described the prices as "phenomenally high", adding that gas prices were now 10 times higher than the US in Europe.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1539643/eu-news-energy-crisis-deepens-france-germany-green-taxonomy-nuclear-gas

It is business as usual. The French are not quitting their nukes, the Germans are not quitting natural gas. Both got no Plan B.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

5 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Even more apparent is that you have no concept of the maintenance difference between an EV and ICE.

European Teslas don't cost that much to maintain yet because the upfront costs are so high. Other than this, too early to tell. The pure EVs sure have fewer moving parts. This is a plus. On the other hand, there is no manufacturing culture whatsoever. This is a minus. Their previous manufacturing plant in California was a bunch of Mexicans in a tent doing everything by hand. Presumably, is the new site in Texas (also) about having a non-embarrassing manufacturing facility?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

24 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You apparently can't comprehend the concept of a warranty. If it is a warranty repair then it is free and very convenient if mobile support can fix it. If it isn't a warranty repair then go to any mechanic.

Now you are also a skilled insurance actuary, Jay? This is who designs the warranty terms. Well, for a regular car at least. I am not aware of Tesla allowing a 3rd party service ever. Do they?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

9 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Now you are also a skilled insurance actuary, Jay? This is who designs the warranty terms. Well, for a regular car at least. I am not aware of Tesla allowing a 3rd party service ever. Do they?

"If you choose to take your vehicle to a non-Tesla shop for maintenance or repairs, coverage under your warranty could be affected if any problems occur."  https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

Same as every other automaker.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The residential-grade wiring is not up to the task anywhere I see)

Really?

You just get a re-charging station fitted at your house and plug it in! No need for re-wiring your house!!

in fact if your cable is long enough you can just plug straight into the wall socket, but not recommended.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Rob Plant

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

It is business as usual. The French are not quitting their nukes, the Germans are not quitting natural gas. Both got no Plan B.

I think the French are in a very strong position as they are self-reliant and dont need a plan B, the Gernans not so much, they need to bend over and take whatever Putin is giving them!

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

37 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

I think the French are in a very strong position as they are self-reliant and dont need a plan B, the Gernans not so much, they need to bend over and take whatever Putin is giving them!

Same difference. As the old nukes are retired, the French would need to build some new ones. They don't know how anymore. The state-of-the-art has advanced significantly since than.

From a rational standpoint, the Germans are in about the same position. They don't have to take their existing nukes offline and could start working on updating what they have like yesterday. The German plans are actually newer. Something like 29 years for a German operational plant vs. 37 for French, with original permits issued for 30 years. So, the Germans arguably are merely are retiring theirs on time? Well, except that they stopped in 2017 in the middle of constructing 53 new reactor blocks! Same change of plans. (France has 56 total operational reactor blocks, and they are mostly past their official expiration date, so the Germany was about to move them aside as EU's #1 nuclear power)

"Putin" is giving them long-term contracts with some volume commitments which have always been the industry standard, and new, more efficient, pipelines. In return, "Putin" asks to stop targeted harassment of Russian business. Somehow, the "third energy package" only ever applies to Gazprom (all the other pipelines are getting exemptions, which is a gross violation of WTO bylaws BTW) ditto for requirements to use spot pricing, forced ex-post-facto per Stockholm arbitration (on behalf of Poland and Ukraine) People who are actually in the gas business (any energy "commodity" actually) never actually liked the spot markets. Heck, US LNG providers prefer long-term take-or-pay contracts. The spot market benefits only the speculators (aka "commodity investors") who make out most of the market volume. As usual, why are spot prices selectively forced on Gazprom, but not on LNG? See how the spot market looks now, when Gasprom choose to stay step out for a short period? Plenty of derivatives (here, futures contracts on gas) are available for every aspiring commodity "investor", but not really any principal (here, actual gas) to go around. In this case, time for some margin calls. Haven't you seen something similar a few times before?

Is it too much to ask to be treated like any other business?

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

26 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Same difference. As the old nukes are retired, the French would need to build some new ones. They don't know how anymore. The state-of-the-art has advanced significantly since than.

Really?

How come EDF are building Hinkley Point C in the UK as we speak (with the help of GE Belfort in France)? And how come they will be building Sizewell C in the UK very soon?

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/hinkley-point-c/about/reactor

Thats very concerning the UK is spending £40-50B on 2 new nucs being built by the French and they dont know how to make them! 

C'mon Andrei you're better than this!

Most nucs go past their original "expiry date" as long as the core and the rods are OK so there is no reason to build new if the old ones are still fine. If they arent I'm sure they will begin decommissioning the old ones and replace as required.

Germany after Fukushima have had a change in political policy and dont want any nucs. Thats going to be a big problem for them going forward especially if they are to stick to their "green" dream they keep telling the world about. Where are they going to get the powergen from? Renewables? not a chance! 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Rob Plant

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Really?

You just get a re-charging station fitted at your house and plug it in! No need for re-wiring your house!!

in fact if your cable is long enough you can just plug straight into the wall socket, but not recommended.

Ugh, not again. European residential wiring is 3-phase ~400 volts, drawing up to 63A. Possibly 80A for a symmetric load, because 63A is really measured on common-mode return on N. This is as much as any house is going to get, even if it is a high rise, or a collection of town houses that spans several blocks, as it is in my case. When some capacity is exceeded, they'll simply repeat more 3+N lines in parallel. In theory, you've got the same exact setup in UK in the most optimistic case, except for 240V/415V

Now, a proper automotive quick charger for 400V draws 120, better yet, 250A. This is seriously industrial grade wiring, even if it is point-to-point. I believe the nominal cross section of all the wires needs to go up to 16mm² at least, up from 6mm²

Wall sockets?!? Those are restricted to 16A phase-to-neutral (230V) and thus <2.5mm² cross section wiring. In the practice, official electricians always use 13A breakers here in Austria, presumably for compatibility with dubious British "ring-bus" wiring scheme which may be further upstream. In some very specific circumstances, there are 20A wall sockets in Germany and France, which is probably why all our local hardware stores carry them. So, reasoning that it cannot really be all that illegal here for EU's sake, I've got those and built them in. Spectacular early results! This is how I know about 13A sockets in relation shorting to British ring bus wiring. A single apartment-scale wiring closet of yours can only handle 30A for all phases. (Ours tend to be capped by a nominal 25A rated bottle fuse, which is the largest one available for DIAZED DII socket.  Trivial to circumvent in a number of advanced ways, but the proper Nazi approach would require redoing all the porcelain sockets where they put thermal fuses to something that goes to 63A, like DIII or Neozed) 250A fuses would realistically have to be NH, which are comparatively huge) More then you ever wanted to know about proper Nazi fuses

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schmelzsicherung#D-System_(DIAZED)

(sorry, there is nothing of significance in the English-language version of this article)

Now, over in US, the worst case situation is actually quite a good deal worse than this, due to so called "NEC Class 2 wiring" being acceptable in residential context. Meaning, the wires could be solid aluminum and have no conduits. You want to attach a 100 KW (250A x 400V) class device to any of the above?

Hence, some likely future outcomes of all the EV-related activity

Copper demand goes through the roof, and so does the price (proper rewiring)

OR

Resistive losses in the grids go through the roof in the "last mile", which is not very green at all. Also, increases the fire hazards.

AND

The British (the ring bus aficionados) will discover new and more spectacular varieties of electric fires producing toxic fumes. (If your wiring really is halogen-free, which is an odd property for PVC it is supposed to be, it is some kind of polysulfonate, which is actually worse) Hypothetically, you could be saved by rewiring everything, lets see, FL2G automotive (silicone) insulated wiring

https://www.elandcables.com/cables/fl-standard-wall-automotive-cables

But I don't see this is anybody's building codes. (For a similar power rating to household wiring, automotive FL is rated for smaller voltage at larger current and may melt at a lower temp than magical Euro-PVC (some 150C instead 55C PVC is supposed to melt at according to MSDS), but this does not have to be. This stuff random page

https://www.sab-cable.com/cables-wires-harnessing-temperature-measurement/electrical-cables-and-wires/silicone-cables.html

offers some silicone insulate wiring that is right up there with fluoropolymers (the Teflons) in fire retardation properties. Don't get me wrong, in all actuality  I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes, (my favorite Churchill quite) I am simply sharing this with you such that you can watch how your wiring standards, free from shackles of the EU, develop from halogenated fire retardants, some of which are extremely safe, in the direction of cheap (polysulfonate) marketed as wholesome halogen-free kind. Sorry, Uncle Sam needs you as his guinea pig, on the account of a dead Brit being cheaper than a dead Yankee. Some important peoples (Dow Chemicals' and Dupont's) interests are at stake. See, the market for magical Euronorm PVC which contains nothing but PVC, yet has almost 3x higher melting point than PVC is supposed to appears to be corned by a competing Japanese multinational. I wonder if EU noticed they've been legislating against the laws of nature again? This time, with some degree of success.

Ought not to use anything less than "homogenized" Euro wiring, which is NOT halogen-free, but is the best you gonna get being a Brit. Those be H0x series

https://www.elandcables.com/electrical-cable-and-accessories/cables-by-standard/har-approved-cable

I think this stuff is sufficiently good and plentiful to have squeezed out most other kinds of household wiring outside of US. Which is hopeless. Lets see if you can catch them in the number of patients fried by shoddy wiring?

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

33 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

except for 240V/415V

were all 240V!

Home charging points in the UK are on every street! I reckon 1 in 50 houses have home charging stations in them at least!

Again why do you need to rewire your house??? This is factually wrong end of story!

Edited January 20, 2022 by Rob Plant

[Eric Gagen + 713]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Ugh, not again. European residential wiring is 3-phase ~400 volts, drawing up to 63A. Possibly 80A for a symmetric load, because 63A is really measured on common-mode return on N. This is as much as any house is going to get, even if it is a high rise, or a collection of town houses that spans several blocks, as it is in my case. When some capacity is exceeded, they'll simply repeat more 3+N lines in parallel. In theory, you've got the same exact setup in UK in the most optimistic case, except for 240V/415V

Now, a proper automotive quick charger for 400V draws 120, better yet, 250A. This is seriously industrial grade wiring, even if it is point-to-point. I believe the nominal cross section of all the wires needs to go up to 16mm² at least, up from 6mm²

Wall sockets?!? Those are restricted to 16A phase-to-neutral (230V) and thus <2.5mm² cross section wiring. In the practice, official electricians always use 13A breakers here in Austria, presumably for compatibility with dubious British "ring-bus" wiring scheme which may be further upstream. In some very specific circumstances, there are 20A wall sockets in Germany and France, which is probably why all our local hardware stores carry them. So, reasoning that it cannot really be all that illegal here for EU's sake, I've got those and built them in. Spectacular early results! This is how I know about 13A sockets in relation shorting to British ring bus wiring. A single apartment-scale wiring closet of yours can only handle 30A for all phases. (Ours tend to be capped by a nominal 25A rated bottle fuse, which is the largest one available for DIAZED DII socket.  Trivial to circumvent in a number of advanced ways, but the proper Nazi approach would require redoing all the porcelain sockets where they put thermal fuses to something that goes to 63A, like DIII or Neozed) 250A fuses would realistically have to be NH, which are comparatively huge) More then you ever wanted to know about proper Nazi fuses

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schmelzsicherung#D-System_(DIAZED)

(sorry, there is nothing of significance in the English-language version of this article)

Now, over in US, the worst case situation is actually quite a good deal worse than this, due to so called "NEC Class 2 wiring" being acceptable in residential context. Meaning, the wires could be solid aluminum and have no conduits. You want to attach a 100 KW (250A x 400V) class device to any of the above?

Hence, some likely future outcomes of all the EV-related activity

Copper demand goes through the roof, and so does the price (proper rewiring)

OR

Resistive losses in the grids go through the roof in the "last mile", which is not very green at all. Also, increases the fire hazards.

AND

The British (the ring bus aficionados) will discover new and more spectacular varieties of electric fires producing toxic fumes. (If your wiring really is halogen-free, which is an odd property for PVC it is supposed to be, it is some kind of polysulfonate, which is actually worse) Hypothetically, you could be saved by rewiring everything, lets see, FL2G automotive (silicone) insulated wiring

https://www.elandcables.com/cables/fl-standard-wall-automotive-cables

But I don't see this is anybody's building codes. (For a similar power rating to household wiring, automotive FL is rated for smaller voltage at larger current and may melt at a lower temp than magical Euro-PVC (some 150C instead 55C PVC is supposed to melt at according to MSDS), but this does not have to be. This stuff random page

https://www.sab-cable.com/cables-wires-harnessing-temperature-measurement/electrical-cables-and-wires/silicone-cables.html

offers some silicone insulate wiring that is right up there with fluoropolymers (the Teflons) in fire retardation properties. Don't get me wrong, in all actuality  I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes, (my favorite Churchill quite) I am simply sharing this with you such that you can watch how your wiring standards, free from shackles of the EU, develop from halogenated fire retardants, some of which are extremely safe, in the direction of cheap (polysulfonate) marketed as wholesome halogen-free kind. Sorry, Uncle Sam needs you as his guinea pig, on the account of a dead Brit being cheaper than a dead Yankee. Some important peoples (Dow Chemicals' and Dupont's) interests are at stake. See, the market for magical Euronorm PVC which contains nothing but PVC, yet has almost 3x higher melting point than PVC is supposed to appears to be corned by a competing Japanese multinational. I wonder if EU noticed they've been legislating against the laws of nature again? This time, with some degree of success.

Ought not to use anything less than "homogenized" Euro wiring, which is NOT halogen-free, but is the best you gonna get being a Brit. Those be H0x series

https://www.elandcables.com/electrical-cable-and-accessories/cables-by-standard/har-approved-cable

I think this stuff is sufficiently good and plentiful to have squeezed out most other kinds of household wiring outside of US. Which is hopeless. Lets see if you can catch them in the number of patients fried by shoddy wiring?

That may be the case in Europe, and it is the case in the US in older areas, but most newer construction in the US have 100, 150 or 200 amp panels. Charging is usually broken into 3 classifications:

https://www.forbes.com/wheels/advice/ev-charging-levels/

Class 1:  very slow, plugged into a 'normal' outlet, and you get what you get - basically only useful in emergencies, or if there are no better options.

Class 2: 40 or 80 amps current draw on a 50 or 100 amp circuit - typical for at home chargers - can charge up your vehicle in 6-12 hours.

Class 3: fast charging at a commercial charging station - this seems to be what you are envisioning a need for, but it's not necessary for home use - we tend to be at home a lot (even if only at night) and you can afford to spend more time charging. .

The huge difference between the US and Europe is the recent rate of population growth, and new housing construction.  Over 1/2 of the US housing stock has been constructed after 1994, and in areas which have seen the most population growth it is younger than that.  For example in my region,  about 90% of the homes are less than 20 years old, and all of them have 200 amp breaker boxes installed, primarily to be able to handle air conditioning loads.  

  All of these houses are already set up to draw enough power to charge EV's.  The ones which are not are older construction which tends to be in densely populated urban areas.  Not coincidentally, these are also the houses/areas which tend not to have personally owned parking anyway, so these areas and people are going to have public charging areas set up.  This is already taking place - for example many parking structures in my area have been retrofitted with EV charging stations which will charge your vehicle (for a fee of course) while you work or shop or whatever.  

At least from an infrastructure perspective, the US has the 'last mile' covered pretty well.  there will have to be adjustments in the demand curve for electricity, but that is far more workable.  Most EV charging takes place at night when general electricity demand tends to be low, so the system should be able to handle it reasonably well.  

Edited January 20, 2022 by Eric Gagen

[Eric Gagen + 713]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

were all 240V!

Home charging points in the UK are on every street! I reckon 1 in 50 houses have home charging stations in them at least!

Again why do you need to rewire your house??? This is factually wrong end of story!

He may be correct in continental Europe, but that's not necessarily true everywhere else .  

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

9 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

He may be correct in continental Europe, but that's not necessarily true everywhere else .  

You mean wrong like France dont know how to build nucs anymore🤣

[Eric Gagen + 713]

15 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

You mean wrong like France dont know how to build nucs anymore🤣

No - he is probably right.  A LOT of older housing stock have electrical service and panels that would be considered grossly inadequate by modern standards.  It will require upgrading to meet the new needs of the world.  Houses built in the era where the main need for power were electric lights were/are insufficient for the world where everyone has washers, dryers, toasters and refrigerators.  Houses built without the expectation of electric cars will also need upgrades.  This is especially the case in Europe.

In large parts of the world (outside europe at least) modern buildings are constructed with sufficient power supply to be able to run whole house/building air conditioning and HVAC  systems.  In areas where the climate makes these attractive, they are by far the largest current drawing item, and most homes with one will have 150 or 200 amp service.  The beauty of this is that these systems run intermittently as needed, and that the biggest amperage draw is on startup.  Most of the capacity is unused, most of the time which means that it is available for EV charging.

Europe is a different story - it's mostly cool enough that HVAC systems aren't required - only heating.  For areas with electric heat,  they probably have enough capacity to charge EV's already, but for areas which have relied on steam distribution systems or gas for heating, their electrical infrastructure is going to be woefully inadequate. 

This is also going to be the case in the Northeast of the US, some parts of the upper midwest and large parts of California where it rarely gets warm enough to require air conditioning.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Eric Gagen

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

8 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

No - he is probably right.  A LOT of older housing stock have electrical service and panels that would be considered grossly inadequate by modern standards.  It will require upgrading to meet the new needs of the world.  Houses built in the era where the main need for power were electric lights were/are insufficient for the world where everyone has washers, dryers, toasters and refrigerators.  Houses built without the expectation of electric cars will also need upgrades.  This is especially the case in Europe.

In large parts of the world (outside europe at least) modern buildings are constructed with sufficient power supply to be able to run whole house/building air conditioning and HVAC  systems.  In areas where the climate makes these attractive, they are by far the largest current drawing item, and most homes with one will have 150 or 200 amp service.  The beauty of this is that these systems run intermittently as needed, and that the biggest amperage draw is on startup.  Most of the capacity is unused, most of the time which means that it is available for EV charging.

Europe is a different story - it's mostly cool enough that HVAC systems aren't required - only heating.  For areas with electric heat,  they probably have enough capacity to charge EV's already, but for areas which have relied on steam distribution systems or gas for heating, their electrical infrastructure is going to be woefully inadequate. 

This is also going to be the case in the Northeast of the US, some parts of the upper midwest and large parts of California where it rarely gets warm enough to require air conditioning.

Well it isnt in the UK thats for sure

Maybe mainland Europe it is different as the housing mostly looks sub-standard anyway, frankly I dont care!

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Biden & Co. have again failed to understand how markets work...simply shuffling barrels around does nothing.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Market-Shrugs-Off-Bidens-Readiness-To-Tackle-Oil-Price-Rally.html

Edited January 20, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Really?

How come EDF are building Hinkley Point C in the UK as we speak (with the help of GE Belfort in France)? And how come they will be building Sizewell C in the UK very soon?

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/hinkley-point-c/about/reactor

Thats very concerning the UK is spending £40-50B on 2 new nucs being built by the French and they dont know how to make them! 

C'mon Andrei you're better than this!

Most nucs go past their original "expiry date" as long as the core and the rods are OK so there is no reason to build new if the old ones are still fine. If they arent I'm sure they will begin decommissioning the old ones and replace as required.

Germany after Fukushima have had a change in political policy and dont want any nucs. Thats going to be a big problem for them going forward especially if they are to stick to their "green" dream they keep telling the world about. Where are they going to get the powergen from? Renewables? not a chance! 

C'mon Rob, we already discussed this. The EDF is simply putting their name on it. The Chinese are the ones actually building it. EDF was never a builder of reactors, but an operator of them. I supposed they picked up the assets of Areva, the actual builder, who went bankrupt trying. Ditto for later days Westinghouse (a division of Japanese Toshiba) Similarly to EDF, the Americans got the customer/operator trying to salvage a project on their own. I think it is this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant

Therefore, the only completed and operational projects done to Areva's spec or Westinghouse's spec exist in China. The Chinks have figured out how to fix those lemons on their own and are presumably pimping such a service to anybody involved. You want it to work anytime soon? You let the Chinese do their thing.

Yes, most nukes can be extended to beyond the originally expected lifetime. You cannot simply call the can and rods A-OK and be done with it. That's up to IAEA to decide. The later gen reactors are not gonna have any modulating rods. No externally operated electrical or mechanical actuators allowed. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_nuclear_safety

The rejection of nukes is not really a home-made German policy. The European greens, in general, are a Trojan horse of the "Atlantic bridge", pushing American interests ahead of local ones. Which would be a) remove the competitiveness of European industries. Especially German. Yours has already been removed b) Crowd out genuinely left-wing political forces by picking up their most popular but least practical causes (free money for everyone!)

All of Western politics is pretty much AstroTurf, but at least it is commercial. You want the population to have a specific opinion? You pay for it. In German case, there is actually a direct remote micromanagement of all their media and educational establishment.  This is how you get to the situation, where even the German government's own official propaganda media they finance, like DW,  is whacking their precious commercial interests like North Stream 2.  Somebody in US or UK has ordered them to.

Power generation is only some 23% of German energy use. The rest is heat. Renewable electricity is not a direct substitute, you will need a lot more. "Fossil fuels" are also required as a feedstocks for nearly everything. How long can you live without synthetic fertilizers? Without plastic packaging? Without disposable diapers? Don't believe for a second that you can. USSR lived like that for decades. All the packaging was made out of natural materials only or was reusable, there were no throwaway items around. Even if you can, not a lifestyle conductive to highest productivity. I still remember not having a washing machine and doing my laundry by hand. What a waste of time.

Also, check these interesting metrics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption

which I find a very interesting metric of intrinsic economic strength much better than BS GDP obtained by modern post-industrial service economy. That stuff obviously doesn't do anything. Did you notice how the hair stylists for non-binary gendered pets have been closed for the last couple of years and thus did not contribute to the GDP? How come there is not much of an effect?

Google also knows how to plot these over time, if you ask for "countryname energy use per capita" You can see that most of the "1st word economies"  which have been flat, are now tanking. And have been for a few years. Those who did grow, like Germany, are now flat. Specifically the UK is in decline since like 1980-ties. Still couldn't fix what auntie Thatcher broke, eh? Otherwise, there is a strong correlation with being conventionally rich and/or having a Nordic climate.

Check out the self-serving interpretation of how higher per capita energy use strongly corresponds to being socially progressive. Which gets all the rich Scandinavian countries and Switzerland on top. Based on 2003 data though.

Now, we've got an outrigger in Russia, which is now showing up among the most energy rich countries. Ought to be among the most socially responsible countries there are. With like 2x per capita energy use of Switzerland now. Has it been doing something else? Nope. Actually, it's been about flat since the last days of USSR! So, it is the rest of the world (or just the developed world?)

Now, an even closer look at the rich, Nordic and allegedly socially responsible countries reveals a very recent bifurcation. Upward trend only for the energy exporting ones. Norway, Canada. In the other hemisphere Australia (for some reason also NZ. must be nicking some Aussie stuff) Downward trends for Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Uncle Sam is flat (but still very generously sized)

I like the unit, too. kilograms of oil equivalent. Take several tons to support each one of us. (whopping 17 tons to support an Islander) In general, I take this as a sign of regress of the Western civilization in general. This parameter has been growing for most of the humanity's existence. Let's look at some conventionally (well) developing economies, say, the rest of BRICS. Clearly upwards trend for all. Exponential growth for China (still not quite caught up with Russia) See, none of those countries have any kind of surplus energy to export, quite on the contrary. OK, lets look at traditional export driven tigers. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Significant upward trend, despite energy deficiency. So, there is still some life in development model that involves flooding your markets with manufactured goods in exchange for your progressively worthless scrip. Lets look at ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam...) Significant upward trend. Whatever it is they do right, it isn't energy exports (except for Brunei) I am getting an impression that all of the peoples of slanty-eyed persuasion are  riding the Chinese steamroller, whether they want it or not. Except for Japan. Is with the wrong crowd. Per capita energy use trend downward. Nothing to do with Fukushima, the start was around 2000.

Thus, I motion to remove the unnecessary abstraction of USD, the worth of which is difficult to access and replace it with a kg of oil equivalent. Which is also some amount of joules or watts, but is less intuitive. By that metric, is an average Russian richer than overwhelming majority of citizens of the EU. Scandinavian level rich. All that by simply staying at about 1990 level. That's 2nd world for you. We are obviously observing a massive redistribution of wealth away from the has beens. You really should lose the chip on your shoulder. Newton and Watt were revelation al. Winnie the Pooh also all right. But that was a while back. What have you done for us lately, has beens? As somebody else astutely noticed, all the Russians (and the Chinese) need to do is to loose their inferiority complex. They are programmed to kowtow to anything Western and don't know their own strength. (The Chinese are even worse. For them, Russians are also the collective imperialist West) So, they are willing to fix your bugs incognito and give the credit to EDF. You should be grateful for this. Better yet, you should be learning from them. The GenIII+ reactors really don't have much in common with what you were building 30 years ago. The Chinese are also engaged in their recently favorite sport. Lets sign up all the important Western vendors (including Rosatom) and make the official best-off collection of everything. Like what if you could attack an Armata's turret to an F-16? Seems to have worked with rail traction. The Chinese bullet train is a simultaneous knockoff of best practices of Siemens, Alstrom and Bombardier and better than either  of them. Are you impressed? I am not really. I think all they uncovered is that those guys were a cartel to start with who were holding the latest tech back / had various vested interests groups overdue for refactoring.

 

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

C'mon Rob, we already discussed this. The EDF is simply putting their name on it. The Chinese are the ones actually building it. EDF was never a builder of reactors, but an operator of them. I supposed they picked up the assets of Areva, the actual builder, who went bankrupt trying. Ditto for later days Westinghouse (a division of Japanese Toshiba) Similarly to EDF, the Americans got the customer/operator trying to salvage a project on their own. I think it is this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant

Therefore, the only completed and operational projects done to Areva's spec or Westinghouse's spec exist in China. The Chinks have figured out how to fix those lemons on their own and are presumably pimping such a service to anybody involved. You want it to work anytime soon? You let the Chinese do their thing.

Yes, most nukes can be extended to beyond the originally expected lifetime. You cannot simply call the can and rods A-OK and be done with it. That's up to IAEA to decide. The later gen reactors are not gonna have any modulating rods. No externally operated electrical or mechanical actuators allowed. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_nuclear_safety

The rejection of nukes is not really a home-made German policy. The European greens, in general, are a Trojan horse of the "Atlantic bridge", pushing American interests ahead of local ones. Which would be a) remove the competitiveness of European industries. Especially German. Yours has already been removed b) Crowd out genuinely left-wing political forces by picking up their most popular but least practical causes (free money for everyone!)

All of Western politics is pretty much AstroTurf, but at least it is commercial. You want the population to have a specific opinion? You pay for it. In German case, there is actually a direct remote micromanagement of all their media and educational establishment.  This is how you get to the situation, where even the German government's own official propaganda media they finance, like DW,  is whacking their precious commercial interests like North Stream 2.  Somebody in US or UK has ordered them to.

Power generation is only some 23% of German energy use. The rest is heat. Renewable electricity is not a direct substitute, you will need a lot more. "Fossil fuels" are also required as a feedstocks for nearly everything. How long can you live without synthetic fertilizers? Without plastic packaging? Without disposable diapers? Don't believe for a second that you can. USSR lived like that for decades. All the packaging was made out of natural materials only or was reusable, there were no throwaway items around. Even if you can, not a lifestyle conductive to highest productivity. I still remember not having a washing machine and doing my laundry by hand. What a waste of time.

Also, check these interesting metrics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption

which I find a very interesting metric of intrinsic economic strength much better than BS GDP obtained by modern post-industrial service economy. That stuff obviously doesn't do anything. Did you notice how the hair stylists for non-binary gendered pets have been closed for the last couple of years and thus did not contribute to the GDP? How come there is not much of an effect?

Google also knows how to plot these over time, if you ask for "countryname energy use per capita" You can see that most of the "1st word economies"  which have been flat, are now tanking. And have been for a few years. Those who did grow, like Germany, are now flat. Specifically the UK is in decline since like 1980-ties. Still couldn't fix what auntie Thatcher broke, eh? Otherwise, there is a strong correlation with being conventionally rich and/or having a Nordic climate.

Check out the self-serving interpretation of how higher per capita energy use strongly corresponds to being socially progressive. Which gets all the rich Scandinavian countries and Switzerland on top. Based on 2003 data though.

Now, we've got an outrigger in Russia, which is now showing up among the most energy rich countries. Ought to be among the most socially responsible countries there are. With like 2x per capita energy use of Switzerland now. Has it been doing something else? Nope. Actually, it's been about flat since the last days of USSR! So, it is the rest of the world (or just the developed world?)

Now, an even closer look at the rich, Nordic and allegedly socially responsible countries reveals a very recent bifurcation. Upward trend only for the energy exporting ones. Norway, Canada. In the other hemisphere Australia (for some reason also NZ. must be nicking some Aussie stuff) Downward trends for Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Uncle Sam is flat (but still very generously sized)

I like the unit, too. kilograms of oil equivalent. Take several tons to support each one of us. (whopping 17 tons to support an Islander) In general, I take this as a sign of regress of the Western civilization in general. This parameter has been growing for most of the humanity's existence. Let's look at some conventionally (well) developing economies, say, the rest of BRICS. Clearly upwards trend for all. Exponential growth for China (still not quite caught up with Russia) See, none of those countries have any kind of surplus energy to export, quite on the contrary. OK, lets look at traditional export driven tigers. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Significant upward trend, despite energy deficiency. So, there is still some life in development model that involves flooding your markets with manufactured goods in exchange for your progressively worthless scrip. Lets look at ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam...) Significant upward trend. Whatever it is they do right, it isn't energy exports (except for Brunei) I am getting an impression that all of the peoples of slanty-eyed persuasion are  riding the Chinese steamroller, whether they want it or not. Except for Japan. Is with the wrong crowd. Per capita energy use trend downward. Nothing to do with Fukushima, the start was around 2000.

Thus, I motion to remove the unnecessary abstraction of USD, the worth of which is difficult to access and replace it with a kg of oil equivalent. Which is also some amount of joules or watts, but is less intuitive. By that metric, is an average Russian richer than overwhelming majority of citizens of the EU. Scandinavian level rich. All that by simply staying at about 1990 level. That's 2nd world for you. We are obviously observing a massive redistribution of wealth away from the has beens. You really should lose the chip on your shoulder. Newton and Watt were revelation al. Winnie the Pooh also all right. But that was a while back. What have you done for us lately, has beens? As somebody else astutely noticed, all the Russians (and the Chinese) need to do is to loose their inferiority complex. They are programmed to kowtow to anything Western and don't know their own strength. (The Chinese are even worse. For them, Russians are also the collective imperialist West) So, they are willing to fix your bugs incognito and give the credit to EDF. You should be grateful for this. Better yet, you should be learning from them. The GenIII+ reactors really don't have much in common with what you were building 30 years ago. The Chinese are also engaged in their recently favorite sport. Lets sign up all the important Western vendors (including Rosatom) and make the official best-off collection of everything. Like what if you could attack an Armata's turret to an F-16? Seems to have worked with rail traction. The Chinese bullet train is a simultaneous knockoff of best practices of Siemens, Alstrom and Bombardier and better than either  of them. Are you impressed? I am not really. I think all they uncovered is that those guys were a cartel to start with who were holding the latest tech back / had various vested interests groups overdue for refactoring.

 

Nope the Chinese are just stumping up some cash, buiding nothing!

I added the link about the reactor but I guess you didnt read it, never mind!

The point originally was made by you incorrectly that France cant build any new nucs. This was a silly statement as even if they couldnt build the reactor (which they can) they can outsource this or have collaboration with others that can.

To be honest your posts are so long that I only read the first parts as you tend to go off on tangents and off point too often.