GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Boat + 1,315]

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

That's not by accident - it's on purpose. Most of the SPR storage is along the gulf coast near Houston, and the Louisiana Gulf Coast refining complex.  The refineries there are particularly well suited for using sour crude - specifically Mayan Mexican sour, Canadian tar sands, or Venezuelan heavy.  The real issue is what I originally stated - the SPR isn't big enough to manipulate oil markets in general.  It simply can't be done.

Your correct in the physical sense but we know Wall Street runs on bs and emotion. Just Biden mentioning the SPR will send reporters flying to their computers to post the “huge” news. 
like the excitement of exports from the US. Hell they come from imports to the US. A big bother about nothing. 
The world of news is about viewership. Sensationalism drives clicks. 
Let me report. So the US drops around 2.8 mbpd when COVID struck. Today it’s roughly down 800 mbpd. Production has done a good job matching the growing demand in the US. I expect more slow and measured demand and a continued rise in production. Production will not ramp up to affect US exports from US production though. 
The stockpile of drilled but uncompleted wells continues to drop and has been dropping for some time. 100 wells a month get fracked above what are drilled. When drilling catches up with production demand it will be interesting to see if the industry replenishes the duct count. 

[Boat + 1,315]

1 hour ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

You don't have a crystal ball for tomorrow, let alone next year, 10 years, 20 years, or 50 years.

The way you climate doom gargling goons speak; hydrocarbons are the devil and should be outlawed immediately so your investments in renewables and EVs will make you rich. After languishing in the current system as middling employees or low level management, you need something to change so you don't end up needing your kids (if you have any) or government (lol) to take care of your elderly decline. 

It's not going to happen, by the way. Prolific and energy dense electric generation systems will be the only types that will rise to prominence. Nuclear, hydroelectric, and soon, geothermal will dominate the generation landscape with NG to bridge the gap. 

You can't seriously think that having to build at least 300% of needed generation capacity of wind and solar with corresponding battery backup will be economical.

For instance:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31032&src=email#tab2

EVs will exacerbate the renewable grid issues, not help solve it. 

https://labs.utdallas.edu/essl/projects/large-scale-vehicle-charging-problem/

1/4 vet. You brought out the bs meter. Replacing FF would be great but only if the alternative is cost effective. There is no outlawing. Only a redneck would lie about such a thing. And why? 
Nuke might still be a huge chunk of the answer. Wind, solar and batteries seem to have the lead for AC demand, it’s a perfect fit. But one thing for sure. You ain’t smart enough to speak for the woke. For a fee I could filter your news for you. Your obviously having problems. PS, no money invested in renewables. 
As far as batteries for storage go, we don’t yet know how much the price will drop short term. But midterm (4-5) years, tech seems good enough prices should be halved. 100%. That should be the point that FF will disappear when powering air conditioning. 
I have posted several times since the Texas storm that Wind, solar and batteries are not a complete plan for a several day storm. Pass the word to other slower southern boys that talk that smack. You don’t get to form my narritave.

Your grid issues will certainly be exacerbated. Those EV’s and grid batteries will save billions in electrical costs and eliminate nat gas peaker plants. We’re gonna need a few million batteries before getting to excited about that. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 1/21/2022 at 8:49 PM, ronwagn said:

Yes it will be malign influence if Russia insists on being a bad actor rather than a good neighbor. He is harming his own people in the process. 

The "malign Russian influence" quip was supposed to be a joke, imitating  your Goebbels media. You haven't noticed?

The malign influence is all yours. Russia is the last, best hope of the real free world. You are a creature of inverted world where good is evil and white is black, talking in tongues of Newspeak. It matters not if you are evil on purpose or merely mindlessly parroting some, but you need to stop doing this. First, think.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

20 hours ago, notsonice said:

do you think in 10 years EVs will be the only vehicles on the road??..... as I said get back to me in 10 years and tell me if the existing grid is not sufficient for 2032.......Now if you want to talk about 2042.......my crystal ball is not good for 20 years

The government plan is 100% EV, which means that local grids cannot support universal overnight charging without a massive rebuild.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

17 hours ago, Boat said:

Your correct in the physical sense but we know Wall Street runs on bs and emotion. Just Biden mentioning the SPR will send reporters flying to their computers to post the “huge” news. 
like the excitement of exports from the US. Hell they come from imports to the US. A big bother about nothing. 
The world of news is about viewership. Sensationalism drives clicks. 
Let me report. So the US drops around 2.8 mbpd when COVID struck. Today it’s roughly down 800 mbpd. Production has done a good job matching the growing demand in the US. I expect more slow and measured demand and a continued rise in production. Production will not ramp up to affect US exports from US production though. 
The stockpile of drilled but uncompleted wells continues to drop and has been dropping for some time. 100 wells a month get fracked above what are drilled. When drilling catches up with production demand it will be interesting to see if the industry replenishes the duct count. 

When barrels are shuffled from one inventory into another inventory, nothing is changed in terms of net production, and no new product is on the market...no surprise that the oil market ignored the recent announcements and still went up in spades.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

28 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The government plan is 100% EV, which means that local grids cannot support universal overnight charging without a massive rebuild.

Sure but that rebuild is spread out over the next 30 years or so.  Even then only certain parts of some regions need that level of work.  Most recent construction in sunbelt states already has the distribution Infrastructure to support more or less universal EV charging, because it’s sized for peak air conditioning loads in summer, and nearly all the Southeast has already been updated to this standard for the same reason.  
 

The areas with the greatest need for real grid and distribution Infrastructure are in areas where the distribution system is already inadequate, like most of the northeast, and Pacific Northwest.  San Francisco and the greater Bay Area is a poster child for this problem.  It’s grid got built with the idea of being incredibly robust - - - for the purpose of making sure every home could use electric lights.  It’s already struggling to deal with day to day things  - most homes in the area already had to be upgraded once to run refrigerators.  Whatever upgrades and changes will need to be made to allow EV charging are approaching the point of being mandatory just to keep the current loads on the grid up and running.  

[Boat + 1,315]

16 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The "malign Russian influence" quip was supposed to be a joke, imitating  your Goebbels media. You haven't noticed?

The malign influence is all yours. Russia is the last, the best hope of the real free world. You are a creature of inverted world where good is evil and white is black, talking in tongues of Newspeak. It matters not if you are evil on purpose or merely mindlessly parroting some, but you need to stop doing this. First, think.

Just like the wackos think Trump won the election. One man’s propaganda is another man’s truth. Like your one country taking on a NATO 20 countries is not silly and foolish. What you need to do is stop it. First,think.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

6 hours ago, Boat said:

Just like the wackos think Trump won the election. One man’s propaganda is another man’s truth. Like your one country taking on a NATO 20 countries is not silly and foolish. What you need to do is stop it. First,think.

Trump likely did win. Never seen so much ballot stuffing in my life, even in Ukraine. No relevance to the topic at hand though. Trump's administration was likely the most hostile to Russian interests to date.

There is such a thing as actual truth, not subject to moral relativisation. As in facts. I prefer to deal in those.

Whole 30 countries, even. Do you feel sufficient comfort in numbers now that North Macedonia is also on your side? IMHO, is being with a moral majority not much of an achievement. Russia has a history of being invaded by collective forces of the West once every hundred years or so. Every time, there is something wrong with our values. Not the right type of Christianity, Bolshevism bad. Anything will do to obfuscate the real needs - loot. Western civilization cannot survive without looting others. You live far beyond your actual means, always did.

We are going to win this time also, no matter what. It is simply much more comfortable to fight for a righteous cause you believe in, rather than simply joining the crowd which got the higher GDP. Because they are obviously the ones who are going to win, right?

Edited January 23, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[surrept33 + 609]

22 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The "malign Russian influence" quip was supposed to be a joke, imitating  your Goebbels media. You haven't noticed?

The malign influence is all yours. Russia is the last, the best hope of the real free world. You are a creature of inverted world where good is evil and white is black, talking in tongues of Newspeak. It matters not if you are evil on purpose or merely mindlessly parroting some, but you need to stop doing this. First, think.

Lol, sounds like what a soviet propaganda minister would say.

It's interesting how Russian propaganda has increasingly reverted back to pre-1990 propaganda (including blaming things the soviets did on Goebbels) in places like Lithuania and Poland:

https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/lithuanian-freedom-fighters-in-russian-propaganda-why-does-the-kremlin-care.d?id=79412987 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre#Those_adopting_pre-1990_views

Quote

In 2021, however, the Russian Ministry of Culture downgraded the memorial complex at Katyn on its Register of Sites of Cultural Heritage from a place of federal to one of only regional importance.^[137] Such decisions, says the preface to the site, are made in consultation with the regional authorities, i.e. the Smolensk Region administration. More important, the Ministry altered the descriptive text to say, once more, that the "Polish officers were shot by the Hitlerites in 1941".^[138]

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by surrept33

[TailingsPond + 466]

On 1/21/2022 at 2:31 PM, Eric Gagen said:

That's not by accident - it's on purpose. Most of the SPR storage is along the gulf coast near Houston, and the Louisiana Gulf Coast refining complex.  The refineries there are particularly well suited for using sour crude - specifically Mayan Mexican sour, Canadian tar sands, or Venezuelan heavy.  The real issue is what I originally stated - the SPR isn't big enough to manipulate oil markets in general.  It simply can't be done.

Some may be on purpose...

One of the last big sell-offs from the reserve angered several refineries because the oil was so bad. I can't find a link now but I believe the government paid a settlement for the damage to the refineries' catalysts.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/exxon-and-others-say-u-s-government-sold-toxic-crude-oil-1.1243545

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Lol, sounds like what a soviet propaganda minister would say.

It's interesting how Russian propaganda has increasingly reverted back to pre-1990 propaganda (including blaming things the soviets did on Goebbels) in places like Lithuania and Poland:

https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/lithuanian-freedom-fighters-in-russian-propaganda-why-does-the-kremlin-care.d?id=79412987 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre#Those_adopting_pre-1990_views

 

Finally! I always knew it wasn't it wasn't the Soviets at Katyn. This story has specifically been pushed by the actual Nazis while they were still around. If you really insist on discussing why that is so, you may start here.

https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=41962

This discusses an odd fact - most of the dead were found shot by 0.32 ACP bullets branded GEKO (a German company) Why would NKVD use an exotic foreign firearm never seen in USSR before or since? It exactly corresponds to Walther PPKs the Nazis issued to Gestapo and units of Ukrainian auxiliary police, because the terms of Versailles treaty severely limited the numbers of 9mm firearms they could make.

Now, I would much prefer to not get into that. It is a long story you really know nothing about, beyond the usual Goebbels propaganda boilerplates. Wasn't whataboutism supposed to be a Russian/Soviet thing?

USSR never had a propaganda minister. It had some amount of direct censorship, usually performed by the local party cell. The only organization with any direct reach to the Western customers was Radio Moscow, which was as large as a single floor at the State Committee (lesser ministry) of Radio and Television, which was mostly dedicated to technological aspects of broadcast. Thus, I am pretty sure you ever encountered any real Soviet propaganda, only a strawman version of it presented by your own Ministry of Truth. The Soviets sucked at any kind of soft power. Modern Russia is orders of magnitude better. It's got RT, which is top notch. Small fry budget-wise compared to any of your news organizations. Get a lot of free labor out of American celebrities, like Larry King or Gov. Jesse Ventura. Why do they volunteer to work for a presumed enemy, you reckon?

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

8 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Sure but that rebuild is spread out over the next 30 years or so.  Even then only certain parts of some regions need that level of work.  Most recent construction in sunbelt states already has the distribution Infrastructure to support more or less universal EV charging, because it’s sized for peak air conditioning loads in summer, and nearly all the Southeast has already been updated to this standard for the same reason.  
 

The areas with the greatest need for real grid and distribution Infrastructure are in areas where the distribution system is already inadequate, like most of the northeast, and Pacific Northwest.  San Francisco and the greater Bay Area is a poster child for this problem.  It’s grid got built with the idea of being incredibly robust - - - for the purpose of making sure every home could use electric lights.  It’s already struggling to deal with day to day things  - most homes in the area already had to be upgraded once to run refrigerators.  Whatever upgrades and changes will need to be made to allow EV charging are approaching the point of being mandatory just to keep the current loads on the grid up and running.  

The grid is below universal EV home charging in the most populated areas of the country. That is where most of the people live.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, Boat said:

Just like the wackos think Trump won the election. One man’s propaganda is another man’s truth. Like your one country taking on a NATO 20 countries is not silly and foolish. What you need to do is stop it. First,think.

No, lies are lies and truth is truth. There is only one truth and many lies. 

[TailingsPond + 466]

6 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

No, lies are lies and truth is truth. There is only one truth and many lies. 

Outside some branches of math you can't prove a truth.  You can, however, disprove lies.

Trump will pay for his lies; even the supreme court judges he appointed voted against his attempt to hide the truth. 

What is he hiding?

[Boat + 1,315]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The grid is below universal EV home charging in the most populated areas of the country. That is where most of the people live.

The grid will be dramatically changing. That means it won’t be the same as now. Distributed solar on most homes and businesses may take decades to happen but happen it will. 
Your type pretends it has to be 100% and happen quickly and how hard it will be. Many of us woke gently explain we don’t want higher energy prices. We want infrastructure replaced as tech and efficiency makes it possible. To me, obviously the duck tail is solvable now in most areas. That’s all AC and all areas of the day except about 5 hrs. We waste billions covering spikes in demand. Batteries and renewables will build out rather quickly over the next few years to cover that daily evening surge. Goodbye afternoon peaker plants. 
As this is happen, which is a huge hundreds of billions project, tech will continue to work on base load because we know solar and batteries will not cover a 5 day storm. 

Your problem, as with most issues, you pretend to have no idea what the correct conversion even is. This is a Trump ploy for the ignorant, uneducated and non Google friends. How is the huge surge of Mongolian coal solving all of Chinas electricity problems going. 

Edited January 23, 2022 by Boat

[Boat + 1,315]

Each grid has important electricity demand but not critical. Grid operators need to become mush more sophisticated at being able to quickly turn off these businesses and factories during a shortage. In the case of Texas this part of management failed. That can’t happen. In the meantime, the risk of rolling blackouts should be a calculation of critical demand vrs nat gas power plants sitting idle. 
The bigger the pie of demand that is not critical, doesn't need nat gas backup. These are the conversations that should be taking place along with how many batteries would it take to cover critical infrastructure. Where is it and what’s the plan. 
I think our governor is more concerned with border hype and suppress the vote hype. It would be nice to dump the duck curve and save billions. Ask Elon to set up a battery factory just for Texas and get rolling.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

12 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Some may be on purpose...

One of the last big sell-offs from the reserve angered several refineries because the oil was so bad. I can't find a link now but I believe the government paid a settlement for the damage to the refineries' catalysts.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/exxon-and-others-say-u-s-government-sold-toxic-crude-oil-1.1243545

 

Excessive Vanadium was an issue with one shipment not that long ago IIRC.  Refineries can handle vanadium - it’s a well known contaminant in some crudes, but they thought this particular shipment didn’t have any so it wasn’t processed correctly to deal with it.  The article about H2S sounds odd, since it’s routinely tested for, and refineries deal with a lot of it on a regular basis.  

Edited January 23, 2022 by Eric Gagen

[Eric Gagen + 713]

9 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The grid is below universal EV home charging in the most populated areas of the country. That is where most of the people live.

I would say about 1/2 the population, but again they don’t have to be ready for universal EV charging NOW.  They have ~ 30 years to go before then.  In most of the deficient areas that’s plenty of time to gradually make changes.  There are only a few areas - again the Pacific Northwest, parts of the northeast and parts of the upper Midwest where the issues are going to require more than gradual changes over time.  Some of these areas have a lot of housing old enough that they had to be gradually adapted (or rebuilt) to account for indoor plumbing. Now they will be adapted (or rebuilt) to account for EV charging.  

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

4 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Excessive Vanadium IIRC.  Refineries can handle vanadium - it’s a well known contaminant in some crudes, but they thought this particular shipment didn’t have any so it wasn’t processed correctly to deal with it.  

Did you actually read the link Eric? It talks about H2s or Hydrogen Sulfide, which is extremly toxic. This is part of the "crap oil" I tried to explain earlier that is sent to the SPR and is counted as barrels required by "guvment" to the producers. 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

11 hours ago, Boat said:

The grid will be dramatically changing. That means it won’t be the same as now. Distributed solar on most homes and businesses may take decades to happen but happen it will. 
Your type pretends it has to be 100% and happen quickly and how hard it will be. Many of us woke gently explain we don’t want higher energy prices. We want infrastructure replaced as tech and efficiency makes it possible. To me, obviously the duck tail is solvable now in most areas. That’s all AC and all areas of the day except about 5 hrs. We waste billions covering spikes in demand. Batteries and renewables will build out rather quickly over the next few years to cover that daily evening surge. Goodbye afternoon peaker plants. 
As this is happen, which is a huge hundreds of billions project, tech will continue to work on base load because we know solar and batteries will not cover a 5 day storm. 

Your problem, as with most issues, you pretend to have no idea what the correct conversion even is. This is a Trump ploy for the ignorant, uneducated and non Google friends. How is the huge surge of Mongolian coal solving all of Chinas electricity problems going. 

It will take decades to rebuild the grid to handle the load of overnight universal recharging for EVs. By that time the true costs of EVs will become apparent as EVs ramp up in price beyond affordability for most Americans, and the Green Dream will the the Green Nightmare or rather the Green Memory.

  This madness will end sooner than you think.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

3 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

I would say about 1/2 the population, but again they don’t have to be ready for universal EV charging NOW.  They have ~ 30 years to go before then.  In most of the deficient areas that’s plenty of time to gradually make changes.  There are only a few areas - again the Pacific Northwest, parts of the northeast and parts of the upper Midwest where the issues are going to require more than gradual changes over time.  Some of these areas have a lot of housing old enough that they had to be gradually adapted (or rebuilt) to account for indoor plumbing. Now they will be adapted (or rebuilt) to account for EV charging.  

The problem is rebuilding the supply system, not the household wiring. The supplies needed for a neighborhood universal EV overnight charging exceeds capacity for the infrastructure systems.

Fatal problems for the electrical infrastructure system begin when there is only a 25% market penetration, anything more requires a massive rebuild.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/how-many-electric-cars-can-the-grid-take-depends-on-your-neighborhood/

Edited January 23, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

3 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Did you actually read the link Eric? It talks about H2s or Hydrogen Sulfide, which is extremly toxic. This is part of the "crap oil" I tried to explain earlier that is sent to the SPR and is counted as barrels required by "guvment" to the producers. 

I did - it was a minor quibble (which probably had something to do with bad metering instruments)  5,000 ppm is a lot of H2S if it's in gaseous form - enough that random people nearby will fall over and die so fast that they don't even know they were exposed. IF that had happened it would have been a huge deal,  but it seems highly unlikely that this was the case.   

 

 

The more likely scenario given that this was a facility that wasn't rated to handle H2S is that they had general purpose detectors to alert in the event that some H2S was detected, but which were not properly set up to determine an actual dosage.  This is very common, because it's better to be safe than sorry, and these types of detectors will also alert for the presence of H2SO4 (sulphuric acid) and a host of sulpher containing hydrocarbons - all of which are somewhat unpleasant to work with, and increase the expense of refining but none of which are remotely as dangerous as H2S gas.  The proper respose if these general purpose detectors have an alert is to get a response team with the proper instruments to do testing - a crude assay in the case of liquid hydrocarbons, or good quality H2S testing in the case of gaseous ones.  However this testing takes time and money, and it wasn't conducted in this case (both Exxon and the US government agree on this point in this case)  The US government paid a small fee to deal with the extra cost of refining the oil (since the sulfer content was above that perscribed in the sales contract) and a researcher wrote a paper discussing the possible sources of contamination (mixing with old crude, bacterial activity, etc.) 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

18 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The problem is rebuilding the supply system, not the household wiring. The supplies needed for a neighborhood universal EV overnight charging exceeds capacity for the systems.

That was part of the process of upgrading areas with older housing stock for modern plumbing in the late 19th and early 20th centuries too.   - they needed to have water service, sewer service, and household piping installed.  The requirements for electrical grid upgrades in our time are precisely comparable.  

[Eric Gagen + 713]

24 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

It will take decades to rebuild the grid to handle the load of overnight universal recharging for EVs. By that time the true costs of EVs will become apparent as EVs ramp up in price beyond affordability for most Americans, and the Green Dream will the the Green Nightmare or rather the Green Memory.

  This madness will end sooner than you think.

We have decades, so it looks like we agree that it will all happen more or less on an as needed basis (although obviously with a few bumps in the road here and there) with no crisis, panic or disaster of any sort for anyone. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

13 hours ago, Boat said:

The grid will be dramatically changing. That means it won’t be the same as now. Distributed solar on most homes and businesses may take decades to happen but happen it will. 
Your type pretends it has to be 100% and happen quickly and how hard it will be. Many of us woke gently explain we don’t want higher energy prices. We want infrastructure replaced as tech and efficiency makes it possible. To me, obviously the duck tail is solvable now in most areas. That’s all AC and all areas of the day except about 5 hrs. We waste billions covering spikes in demand. Batteries and renewables will build out rather quickly over the next few years to cover that daily evening surge. Goodbye afternoon peaker plants. 
As this is happen, which is a huge hundreds of billions project, tech will continue to work on base load because we know solar and batteries will not cover a 5 day storm. 

Your problem, as with most issues, you pretend to have no idea what the correct conversion even is. This is a Trump ploy for the ignorant, uneducated and non Google friends. How is the huge surge of Mongolian coal solving all of Chinas electricity problems going. 

I see your in-depth analysis is somewhat lacking. This cabal of actors all converging under the Democratic party has failed. Build back better has failed, and Boat writing vouchers/IOU'S will not work in the real world.

Monkey see Monkey Do has come to a end in Europe, fourtantley only small pockets in the US have been effected and sadly those citizens will pay the price. 

It is time for the Woken Ascension. Going quietly into the Dark Night would be in your own best interests.

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by Eyes Wide Open