JM

GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

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Yeah weve heard this several times before mate.

Have you got nothing else to say?

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4 hours ago, Boat said:

Public voting may be a step to far. But I would disagree it should be technically obscure. That’s why you need experience at the helm with mandated reports. You can’t have a cheap reserve and a resilient long duration reserve. This is what I have learned. You think politicians have? Now what is the right course? Ignore the delima like they did 10 years ago and rely on obscurity and luck? How many dead and how many billions damage can be avoided for what price. Seems like a reasonable question.

Best course for the society, or best course for the politicians?  Because the answers are different.  Society is better off reasonably well prepared, but for at least some of the politicians they arguing to decide they are better off doing something else.  A large chunk of politicians are driven by an ideology which views energy as evil. Another large chunk is greedy and old, and will happily do something else with the money if it profits them now - after all they are likely to be retired in 10 years so they don’t face any consequences for their actions.    

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19 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The issue is not beating all-time highs, but whether or not Chinese coal production is increasing for the long haul. It clearly is, and the reduced environmental commitment of China and India at the recent conference makes that clear.

Chinese coal production is increasing for the long haul???? same could have been said in 2012.......What happened ????? now with China pushing renewables hard and over 150 pumped storage projects in planning/construction your babble will end up as just BS babble  PS....China is targeting 62GW of operational pumped-hydro facilities by 2025 and 120GW by 2030. Currently, it has 30.3GW of operational pumped-hydro stations......

 

China Coal Production

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1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

Best course for the society, or best course for the politicians?  Because the answers are different.  Society is better off reasonably well prepared, but for at least some of the politicians they arguing to decide they are better off doing something else.  A large chunk of politicians are driven by an ideology which views energy as evil. Another large chunk is greedy and old, and will happily do something else with the money if it profits them now - after all they are likely to be retired in 10 years so they don’t face any consequences for their actions.    

Why can’t a politician just say the truth. The grid is built for x. If we add enough batteries for a day it will cost x on your bill. Hypothetically that gives the state reserve capacity for 3 days. After that you need to be in a motel out of the storm area. The idea politicians even have a say is offensive to me. They blew it and the power needs to be yanked from their grasp. Hell we pay pay the bills. 
 

I was a manager in factories for a couple decades. I wasn’t allowed to f*ck up like that. I was expected to know my shyt. 

Edited by Boat
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(edited)

Please note the dead cat bounce in coal in 2021

 

January 18, 2022

New renewable power plants are reducing U.S. electricity generation from natural gas

annual U.S. electric power sector generation by energy source

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2022

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that rising electricity generation from renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power plants over the next two years. The forecast share of generation for U.S. non-hydropower renewable sources, including solar and wind, grows from 13% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. We forecast that the share of generation from natural gas will fall from 37% in 2021 to 34% by 2023 and the coal share will decline from 23% to 22%.

One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind. The amount of solar power generating capacity operated by the U.S. electric power sector at the end of 2021 is 20 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and U.S. wind power capacity is more than twice what it was 10 years ago.

Another significant shift in the generation mix has been a steady decline in the use of coal-fired power plants since their peak output in 2007 and the increasing use of natural gas, primarily as a result of sustained low natural gas prices. However, that trend reversed in 2021 when the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.88 per million British thermal units, more than double the average cost in 2020. As a result, the share of generation from natural gas declined from 39% in 2020 to 37% last year, while the share of generation from coal rose for the first time since 2014 to average 23%.

In our current STEO, we forecast that most of the growth in U.S. electricity generation in 2022 and 2023 will come from new renewable energy sources. We estimate that the electric power sector had 63 gigawatts (GW) of existing solar power generating capacity operating at the end of 2021. We forecast solar capacity will grow by about 21 GW in 2022 and by 25 GW in 2023. We expect that 7 GW of wind generating capacity will be added in 2022 and another 4 GW in 2023. Operating wind capacity totaled 135 GW at the end of 2021.

Our forecast of growth in renewable electricity generation over the next two years leads to our forecast of a reduced need for fossil-fueled generation. Although we expect natural gas prices for electric generators to decline, the operating costs of renewable generators will continue to be generally lower than natural gas-fired units. We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation.

Principal contributor: Tyler Hodge

Edited by notsonice
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22 hours ago, Boat said:

I told you not to call me a greenie, lol. National security trumps pollution and climate change. That’s where I draw the line. Nuke in GA yet another Republican disaster filled with promises and government money with incomplete results and 10 years late and counting. 
I am not against the idea of nuclear. But the problems of waste and cost need to be solved. Solve that and that’s a great base-load if you have the long term water to spare. 

Democrats often supported nuclear before the green dream came. I don't know of any prominent politician that still does. 

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2 hours ago, notsonice said:

Please note the dead cat bounce in coal in 2021

 

January 18, 2022

New renewable power plants are reducing U.S. electricity generation from natural gas

annual U.S. electric power sector generation by energy source

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2022

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that rising electricity generation from renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power plants over the next two years. The forecast share of generation for U.S. non-hydropower renewable sources, including solar and wind, grows from 13% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. We forecast that the share of generation from natural gas will fall from 37% in 2021 to 34% by 2023 and the coal share will decline from 23% to 22%.

One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind. The amount of solar power generating capacity operated by the U.S. electric power sector at the end of 2021 is 20 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and U.S. wind power capacity is more than twice what it was 10 years ago.

Another significant shift in the generation mix has been a steady decline in the use of coal-fired power plants since their peak output in 2007 and the increasing use of natural gas, primarily as a result of sustained low natural gas prices. However, that trend reversed in 2021 when the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.88 per million British thermal units, more than double the average cost in 2020. As a result, the share of generation from natural gas declined from 39% in 2020 to 37% last year, while the share of generation from coal rose for the first time since 2014 to average 23%.

In our current STEO, we forecast that most of the growth in U.S. electricity generation in 2022 and 2023 will come from new renewable energy sources. We estimate that the electric power sector had 63 gigawatts (GW) of existing solar power generating capacity operating at the end of 2021. We forecast solar capacity will grow by about 21 GW in 2022 and by 25 GW in 2023. We expect that 7 GW of wind generating capacity will be added in 2022 and another 4 GW in 2023. Operating wind capacity totaled 135 GW at the end of 2021.

Our forecast of growth in renewable electricity generation over the next two years leads to our forecast of a reduced need for fossil-fueled generation. Although we expect natural gas prices for electric generators to decline, the operating costs of renewable generators will continue to be generally lower than natural gas-fired units. We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation.

Principal contributor: Tyler Hodge

As coal is replaced and electric car production grows I would guess nat gas would grow market share until that process is complete. It will be interesting to watch. Then there is new demand that has to be filled also. Location will play a role. The south and windy areas will match with batteries. In the North nat gas might do better with batteries. 

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41 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Democrats often supported nuclear before the green dream came. I don't know of any prominent politician that still does. 

We’ll the plant being built in Georgia is making them look like fools. Who can afford the electricity. 

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(edited)

13 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Eric in Europe household utility bills have been going up steadily year on year by 10% or more in many cases. The reason people are literally rioting in the streets now is because they are set to go up 50% or more, old people are going to die as they cant afford to heat their homes, poorer people become poorer or homeless. I'm sure any nation would have riots in the streets if that happenened in their backyard.

You can thank the Green Dreamers and the panicked politicians who bought into the climate hysteria propaganda for this fiasco...they deserve punishment at the next elections.

Edited by Ecocharger

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2 hours ago, notsonice said:

Please note the dead cat bounce in coal in 2021

 

January 18, 2022

New renewable power plants are reducing U.S. electricity generation from natural gas

annual U.S. electric power sector generation by energy source

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2022

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that rising electricity generation from renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power plants over the next two years. The forecast share of generation for U.S. non-hydropower renewable sources, including solar and wind, grows from 13% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. We forecast that the share of generation from natural gas will fall from 37% in 2021 to 34% by 2023 and the coal share will decline from 23% to 22%.

One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind. The amount of solar power generating capacity operated by the U.S. electric power sector at the end of 2021 is 20 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and U.S. wind power capacity is more than twice what it was 10 years ago.

Another significant shift in the generation mix has been a steady decline in the use of coal-fired power plants since their peak output in 2007 and the increasing use of natural gas, primarily as a result of sustained low natural gas prices. However, that trend reversed in 2021 when the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.88 per million British thermal units, more than double the average cost in 2020. As a result, the share of generation from natural gas declined from 39% in 2020 to 37% last year, while the share of generation from coal rose for the first time since 2014 to average 23%.

In our current STEO, we forecast that most of the growth in U.S. electricity generation in 2022 and 2023 will come from new renewable energy sources. We estimate that the electric power sector had 63 gigawatts (GW) of existing solar power generating capacity operating at the end of 2021. We forecast solar capacity will grow by about 21 GW in 2022 and by 25 GW in 2023. We expect that 7 GW of wind generating capacity will be added in 2022 and another 4 GW in 2023. Operating wind capacity totaled 135 GW at the end of 2021.

Our forecast of growth in renewable electricity generation over the next two years leads to our forecast of a reduced need for fossil-fueled generation. Although we expect natural gas prices for electric generators to decline, the operating costs of renewable generators will continue to be generally lower than natural gas-fired units. We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation.

Principal contributor: Tyler Hodge

Out of date....renewables are going up in the cost of inputs, not affordable for the general public purse.

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2 hours ago, Boat said:

Why can’t a politician just say the truth. The grid is built for x. If we add enough batteries for a day it will cost x on your bill. Hypothetically that gives the state reserve capacity for 3 days. After that you need to be in a motel out of the storm area. The idea politicians even have a say is offensive to me. They blew it and the power needs to be yanked from their grasp. Hell we pay pay the bills. 
 

I was a manager in factories for a couple decades. I wasn’t allowed to f*ck up like that. I was expected to know my shyt. 

The easiest answers to your questions are also the saddest, and most likely to be correct:

  • Many politicians don't know what the 'grid' is.
  • Many of their voters don't know either.
  • whatever number X is, a certain number of people will be against it, no matter how much explaining you do, because X costs money
  • A solid portion of people (somewhere between 30 and 50% if I had to make a wild engineering guess) don't know where electricity comes from past 'the wall' or 'the electric company'. And they vote.  

As the manager of a factory you were expected to produce results of some sort, which was measured, and which you were held accountable for.  The objective of politicians is to get re-elected.  Any results other than that are superfluous.  

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3 hours ago, notsonice said:

Chinese coal production is increasing for the long haul???? same could have been said in 2012.......What happened ????? now with China pushing renewables hard and over 150 pumped storage projects in planning/construction your babble will end up as just BS babble  PS....China is targeting 62GW of operational pumped-hydro facilities by 2025 and 120GW by 2030. Currently, it has 30.3GW of operational pumped-hydro stations......

 

China Coal Production

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months, that is about 20% increase in only a part of one year.

Furthermore, the government has ordered closed coal mines to reopen...that is HUGE.

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8 minutes ago, Boat said:

As coal is replaced and electric car production grows I would guess nat gas would grow market share until that process is complete. It will be interesting to watch. Then there is new demand that has to be filled also. Location will play a role. The south and windy areas will match with batteries. In the North nat gas might do better with batteries. 

In the US at least, it appears that growth of natural gas as a generating fuel for electricity is already over.  I expect it will have a 'long tail' however because it's easy to transport, the plants to burn it in are quick and cheap to construct, and you can turn them on and off in an instant.  Peaker plants which are basically giant grid scale versions of backup generators for whatever else is on the system. 

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(edited)

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months, that is about 20% increase in only a part of one year.

Furthermore, the government has ordered closed coal mines to reopen...that is HUGE.

That's a 55 million tons a year capacity added in the last few months - not 55 million tons a month.  That's not 20% That's 1.5%, since China's annual coal production is in the range of 3,800 tons a year.

Edited by Eric Gagen
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3 hours ago, Boat said:

Why can’t a politician just say the truth. The grid is built for x. If we add enough batteries for a day it will cost x on your bill. Hypothetically that gives the state reserve capacity for 3 days. After that you need to be in a motel out of the storm area. The idea politicians even have a say is offensive to me. They blew it and the power needs to be yanked from their grasp. Hell we pay pay the bills. 
 

I was a manager in factories for a couple decades. I wasn’t allowed to f*ck up like that. I was expected to know my shyt. 

I am making this a seperate response, because it's quite different from my previous one.  How big does X have to be to have significant political effects?  

George H.W. Bush (senior) ran for re-election in 1992.  In his first term in 1988 he pledged no new taxes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Read_my_lips:_no_new_taxes But he raised taxes in 1991 shortly before the '92 election.  It is widely understood that he lost the presidency and Clinton gained it as a result of breaking this pledge.  You may assume that this was a tsunami of new taxation, but it wasn't  https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/91-92inintrts.pdf Scroll down the page 4 of the PDF (page 61 of the original scan) and you can see that between 1991 and 1992 (when the tax rise took effect) the effect for the average filer was an increase of $203 - about $17 a month.  That's the threshold of pain that causes dire consequences to what had previously been a brilliant political career.  I live in a town which switched trash pickup service companies over a difference of $2 a month per household, in spite of overwhelmingly high customer satisfaction - less is less, and never mind any other factors!   

 

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27 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Out of date....renewables are going up in the cost of inputs, not affordable for the general public purse.

It's a week old and here it is in real terms:

 Minnesota co-op credits clean energy transition for stabilizing wholesale rates

Great River Energy, Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative, recently announced that it would not be raising rates for 2022, and it credited wind investments and a shift from coal power.

BY: FRANK JOSSI, ENERGY NEWS NETWORK - JANUARY 27, 2022 6:54 AM

windmills.jpg

A decade-long shift from coal to wind power is helping to stabilize rates for Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative.

Great River Energy isn’t alone among consumer-owned utilities forgoing rate increases for 2022, but the power wholesaler is unique in the region for crediting its clean energy transition for leveling off its prices.

“Wholesale rate stability is incredibly important to our member systems in greater Minnesota that are seeing sharp increases in other costs,” Great River Energy President and CEO David Saggau said. The utility sells power to 28 local utilities, 20 of which will see declining rates this year.

Although Minnesota’s investor-owned utilities have sought rate increases, University of Minnesota associate professor Gabe Chan warns comparing them to generation and transmission cooperatives is challenging because they operate on different business models. Clean energy, he said, has been good for all utilities.

“I’ve got a bunch of studies showing that clean energy is keeping the energy costs low, and more wind and solar are just going to keep those energy costs lower and lower,” Chan said. https://minnesotareformer.com/2022/01/27/a-minnesota-co-op-credits-clean-energy-transition-for-stabilizing-wholesale-rates/

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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It's a week old and here it is in real terms:

 Minnesota co-op credits clean energy transition for stabilizing wholesale rates

Great River Energy, Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative, recently announced that it would not be raising rates for 2022, and it credited wind investments and a shift from coal power.

BY: FRANK JOSSI, ENERGY NEWS NETWORK - JANUARY 27, 2022 6:54 AM

windmills.jpg

A decade-long shift from coal to wind power is helping to stabilize rates for Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative.

Great River Energy isn’t alone among consumer-owned utilities forgoing rate increases for 2022, but the power wholesaler is unique in the region for crediting its clean energy transition for leveling off its prices.

“Wholesale rate stability is incredibly important to our member systems in greater Minnesota that are seeing sharp increases in other costs,” Great River Energy President and CEO David Saggau said. The utility sells power to 28 local utilities, 20 of which will see declining rates this year.

Although Minnesota’s investor-owned utilities have sought rate increases, University of Minnesota associate professor Gabe Chan warns comparing them to generation and transmission cooperatives is challenging because they operate on different business models. Clean energy, he said, has been good for all utilities.

“I’ve got a bunch of studies showing that clean energy is keeping the energy costs low, and more wind and solar are just going to keep those energy costs lower and lower,” Chan said. https://minnesotareformer.com/2022/01/27/a-minnesota-co-op-credits-clean-energy-transition-for-stabilizing-wholesale-rates/

Going forward, it looks bad for renewable energy costs. It won't take long to be reflected in rates.

""Solar panel prices had surged by more than 50 percent in the past 12 months alone. The price of wind turbines is up 13 percent and battery prices are rising for the first time ever"

  • "
Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

Here is what is driving up energy prices, activist Green Dreamers attempting to panic the society into ill-judged decisions on energy investment.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Are-Activist-Investors-To-Blame-For-High-Oil-Prices.html

"Oil companies have been extremely slow to turn on the taps, despite higher prices and tightening supply.

Companies are focused on boosting shareholder value and appeasing activist investors.

Global oil supply is falling short of demand, and whatever the morals of fossil fuels, most investors invest not because it’s the moral thing to do but because they want to make money."

Edited by Ecocharger

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2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

 

Eric, here is the passage.

"The world's biggest producer and consumer of the dirty fossil fuel churned out 357.09 million tonnes of coal last month, up from 334.1 million tonnes in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

Output over the first 10 months of 2021 was 3.3 billion tonnes, up 4% year-on-year.

Since July, China has approved expansions at more than 153 coal mines, which could add 55 million tonnes of coal output in the fourth quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said last month."

So, it seems to me that the percentage is 55/357 which is about 15.4 %, which is a huge increase in output. And no, that 55 million tonnes is not just capacity, but actual output.

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(edited)

It looks like the price of fossil fuels is being accelerated upward by...get this....COLD WEATHER.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Climb-Most-Ever-In-A-Single-Day.html

"U.S. natural gas futures surged 72% just ahead of expiration of the February contract

The huge spike in the February contract is a clear sign that bearish bets were being squeezed out of the market

Cold weather in many parts of the United States have boosted demand for the energy commodity"

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

10 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Eric, here is the passage.

"The world's biggest producer and consumer of the dirty fossil fuel churned out 357.09 million tonnes of coal last month, up from 334.1 million tonnes in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

Output over the first 10 months of 2021 was 3.3 billion tonnes, up 4% year-on-year.

Since July, China has approved expansions at more than 153 coal mines, which could add 55 million tonnes of coal output in the fourth quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said last month."

So, it seems to me that the percentage is 55/357 which is about 15.4 %, which is a huge increase in output. And no, that 55 million tonnes is not just capacity, but actual output.

I can see how the wording of the article makes it possible to read it that way, but a little research and logic suggests that it's not possible.  If it were true, that would be the headline "15% increase in Chinese coal output" instead the headline was about the 4-6% output rise - the biggest and most important number.  Another 'tell' is that if it were true, it would represent an increase far in excess of anything that has ever been accomplished in the past.  During the best years of most rapid economic growth, China never managed such a rapid increase. A third sign that it's not a monthly number is to look at demand for coal in China - their economy doesn't have the need for that much extra coal.  Finally, if the increase were that large, you would expect the futures price of coal in China to crash (since it would now be oversupplied beyond it's capacity to burn it for a profit) and for there to be articles about the collapse of the coal export business in Indonesia, but neither thing has happened.  Therefore, it's logical to conclude that the increase is in tons per year, not per month.  

Until it has actually been mined and accounted for, the 55 million tons is capacity - not output.  Capacity is theoretical ability to produce in the present or in the future - output is what is actually happening in the present, or what happened already.  Never equate future capacity with actual output, becuse there are too many unexpected things that can happen between the two.  The actual output may be above or below the planned capacity additions.  

Edited by Eric Gagen
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Echocharger will not look at the numbers and attempt to put them in historical context. It’s like the goldfish that reboots and, surprise, what have we here. The motivation for spin by the entire human race is so silly and stupid. But silly and stupid we are. From time to time I allow myself to get partisan but that weakness is a shame and not warrented by logic and simple common sense. I want to thank Eric Gagne for maybe the best discussion on the Texas storm and the affects on Texas citizens, It seemed fair and reasoned. I could tell he made the attempt to look for “root” causes and the difficulties of possible fixes.

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Tha

18 minutes ago, Boat said:

Echocharger will not look at the numbers and attempt to put them in historical context. It’s like the goldfish that reboots and, surprise, what have we here. The motivation for spin by the entire human race is so silly and stupid. But silly and stupid we are. From time to time I allow myself to get partisan but that weakness is a shame and not warrented by logic and simple common sense. I want to thank Eric Gagne for maybe the best discussion on the Texas storm and the affects on Texas citizens, It seemed fair and reasoned. I could tell he made the attempt to look for “root” causes and the difficulties of possible fixes.

Thank you @Ecocharger

I cared about the winter storm for a lot of reasons:

  • I was in it
  • As an engineer, I find failure analysis extremely interesting
  • I would rather not deal with that particular set of circumstances again 

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14 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

It looks like the price of fossil fuels is being accelerated upward by...get this....COLD WEATHER.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Climb-Most-Ever-In-A-Single-Day.html

"U.S. natural gas futures surged 72% just ahead of expiration of the February contract

The huge spike in the February contract is a clear sign that bearish bets were being squeezed out of the market

Cold weather in many parts of the United States have boosted demand for the energy commodity"

Or you can look at the EIA web site and see nat gas right in the middle of the 5 year average chart. 
 

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Another chart shows nat gas production at 5 year highs. 

 

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

 

I say we bill Russia for the rise in FF. Give it to our producers and quit flaring. Lol Now that’s a plan. 

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21 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months, that is about 20% increase in only a part of one year.

Furthermore, the government has ordered closed coal mines to reopen...that is HUGE.

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months????? 55 million over the last year???? not a leap or bound when their output is essentially the same as 2012 and 2013. This is HUGE????? Dude Coal is not being embraced everywhere , in fact it is being shunned everywhere...except in North Korea.

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