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GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

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(edited)

16 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Global coal production expected to reach 8.13 Bnt in 2020

This would indicate coal production to rise slowly going past the previous peak in 2014

Indian production seems to be increasing marginally

the  chart you present was compiled in early 2020 (pre pandemic reality) The numbers  for 2020 and 2021 in the chart were forecasts that did not come true. In  2020 in your chart overstates the actual production by around 300 million tonnes and 2021 was less 300 million tonnes less than the 8.1 billion forecasted (reality it is right around 7.8 billion tonnes in 2021) . When the chart was made the push for solar and offshore wind coupled with batteries was just taking shape. In addition the chart  does not reflect the economic slow down in China that is happening now and does not reflect the higher cost of coal.......

Then add in the current collapse of Russian coal production/exports  ( in the back end most Russian mines import over 80 percent of their equipment (which is stopped due to sanctions) I would expect that the 8 billion tonnes plus forecasted by the IEA back in early 2020 for 2022,23 and 24  will never happen

 

Time will tell , but as of today the peak for coal consumption was 8.1 billion tonnes set in  2014 

PS forecasts of the past shows you how renewables really are hammering coal increases ....IEA really has no clue about forecasting...Their 2014 forecast for 2019 was 9 billion tonnes reality it was less than 8 billion....Off over 12 percent ....they all should have been fired

 

Love the 2014 forecast

Global coal demand to reach 9 billion tonnes per year by 2019

15 December 2014

Global demand for coal over the next five years will continue marching higher, breaking the 9-billion-tonne level by 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report released today. The report notes that despite China's efforts to moderate its coal consumption, it will still account for three-fifths of demand growth during the outlook period. Moreover, China will be joined by India, ASEAN countries and other countries in Asia as the main engines of growth in coal consumption, offsetting declines in Europe and the United States.

“We have heard many pledges and policies aimed at mitigating climate change, but over the next five years they will mostly fail to arrest the growth in coal demand,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said at the launch of the book. “Although the contribution that coal makes to energy security and access to energy is undeniable, I must emphasise once again that coal use in its current form is simply unsustainable. For this to change, we need to radically accelerate deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.”

The Executive Director also called for more investment in high-efficiency coal-fired power plants, especially in emerging economies. "New plants are being built, in an arc running from South Africa to Southeast Asia, but too many of these are based on decades-old technology," she said. "Regrettably, they will be burning coal inefficiently for many years to come."

Global coal demand growth has been slowing in recent years, and the report sees that trend continuing. Coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.1% per year through 2019, the report said. This compares to the 2013 report's forecast of 2.3% for the five years through 2018 and the actual growth rate of 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2013.

As has been the case for more than a decade, the fate of the global coal market will be determined by China. The world's biggest coal user, producer and importer has embarked on a campaign to diversify its energy supply and reduce its energy intensity, and the resulting increase in gas, nuclear and renewables will be staggering. However, the IEA report shows that despite these efforts, and under normal macroeconomic circumstances, Chinese coal consumption will not peak during the five-year outlook period.

The report's forecasts come with considerable uncertainties, especially regarding the prospect of new policies affecting coal. Authorities in China as well as in key markets like Indonesia, Korea, Germany and India, have announced policy changes that could sharply affect coal market fundamentals. The possibility of these policy changes becoming reality is compounding uncertainty resulting from the current economic climate.

The issue of low prices remains a hot topic among coal market participants. Last year's report emphasised that many coal producers were running at losses, largely driven by take-or-pay infrastructure contracts or financial liabilities. Coal prices have declined even more since last year, but several factors have helped producers withstand further economic pain.

"Our analysis shows that the price floor provided by production costs has decreased significantly, not only because producers reduced costs by gaining economies of scale, better management and budget discipline, but also due to external factors," said Keisuke Sadamori, Director for Energy Markets and Security. "Depreciation of local currencies in the main exporting countries has been significant and low oil prices also help, as oil represents a significant share of coal costs, especially in open-pit operations."

Coal use in OECD member countries is projected to decline in the outlook period, as growth in Turkey, Korea and Japan fails to offset declines in Europe and America. In the United States, retirement of coal capacity and competition from shale gas will lead to a 1.7% decline per year on average during the forecast period. Australia is set to account for the largest growth in exports as Indonesia, driven by higher domestic demand and government policies, slows shipments abroad.

Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014 is part of an annual series whose other outlooks address oil, gas and renewables. The series also features a report on the market for energy efficiency.

 

 

Edited by notsonice

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(edited)

16 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Had the EU Not decommissioned their conventional power generation sources the world would not be in the same place today. That is irrefutable, Merkel knew this well she openly made her concerns public in regards to Putin weaponizing oil.

Germany and some other EU countries went (to use a poker term) "all in" on Russian gas as the go to energy source to transition to renewables due to mainly cost and that its less pollutive than other FF. The reason Merkel then expressed her concerns to Russia about weaponising oil is because she finally realised the catastrophic folly of being wholly reliant on a nation that is not an ally , but actually the opoosite. Her idiocy in this will go down in history as 1 of the most stupid things to have been done by any world leader.

To blame renewables as the reason for the energy crisis is just wrong. The infrastucture for renewables just doesnt exist to take up the slack in these countries. Just look at the countries that are heavily invested in renewables and nuclear such as all Scandinavian countries, France etc they already have that in place and dont have an energy crisis.

Germany's issues on powergen are down to political will, ie no nuclear after Fukushima, not building renewables quickly enough and yes to some extent decommissioning conventional FF plants. All countries IMHO should have a diverse energy generation mix and be self reliant on generating the energy needs of their country. 

To blame renewables is just wrong in so many ways EWO.

Edited by Rob Plant
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3 hours ago, notsonice said:

the  chart you present was compiled in early 2020 (pre pandemic reality) The numbers  for 2020 and 2021 in the chart were forecasts that did not come true. In  2020 in your chart overstates the actual production by around 300 million tonnes and 2021 was less 300 million tonnes less than the 8.1 billion forecasted (reality it is right around 7.8 billion tonnes in 2021) . When the chart was made the push for solar and offshore wind coupled with batteries was just taking shape. In addition the chart  does not reflect the economic slow down in China that is happening now and does not reflect the higher cost of coal.......

Then add in the current collapse of Russian coal production/exports  ( in the back end most Russian mines import over 80 percent of their equipment (which is stopped due to sanctions) I would expect that the 8 billion tonnes plus forecasted by the IEA back in early 2020 for 2022,23 and 24  will never happen

 

Time will tell , but as of today the peak for coal consumption was 8.1 billion tonnes set in  2014 

PS forecasts of the past shows you how renewables really are hammering coal increases ....IEA really has no clue about forecasting...Their 2014 forecast for 2019 was 9 billion tonnes reality it was less than 8 billion....Off over 12 percent ....they all should have been fired

 

Love the 2014 forecast

Global coal demand to reach 9 billion tonnes per year by 2019

15 December 2014

Global demand for coal over the next five years will continue marching higher, breaking the 9-billion-tonne level by 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report released today. The report notes that despite China's efforts to moderate its coal consumption, it will still account for three-fifths of demand growth during the outlook period. Moreover, China will be joined by India, ASEAN countries and other countries in Asia as the main engines of growth in coal consumption, offsetting declines in Europe and the United States.

“We have heard many pledges and policies aimed at mitigating climate change, but over the next five years they will mostly fail to arrest the growth in coal demand,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said at the launch of the book. “Although the contribution that coal makes to energy security and access to energy is undeniable, I must emphasise once again that coal use in its current form is simply unsustainable. For this to change, we need to radically accelerate deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.”

The Executive Director also called for more investment in high-efficiency coal-fired power plants, especially in emerging economies. "New plants are being built, in an arc running from South Africa to Southeast Asia, but too many of these are based on decades-old technology," she said. "Regrettably, they will be burning coal inefficiently for many years to come."

Global coal demand growth has been slowing in recent years, and the report sees that trend continuing. Coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.1% per year through 2019, the report said. This compares to the 2013 report's forecast of 2.3% for the five years through 2018 and the actual growth rate of 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2013.

As has been the case for more than a decade, the fate of the global coal market will be determined by China. The world's biggest coal user, producer and importer has embarked on a campaign to diversify its energy supply and reduce its energy intensity, and the resulting increase in gas, nuclear and renewables will be staggering. However, the IEA report shows that despite these efforts, and under normal macroeconomic circumstances, Chinese coal consumption will not peak during the five-year outlook period.

The report's forecasts come with considerable uncertainties, especially regarding the prospect of new policies affecting coal. Authorities in China as well as in key markets like Indonesia, Korea, Germany and India, have announced policy changes that could sharply affect coal market fundamentals. The possibility of these policy changes becoming reality is compounding uncertainty resulting from the current economic climate.

The issue of low prices remains a hot topic among coal market participants. Last year's report emphasised that many coal producers were running at losses, largely driven by take-or-pay infrastructure contracts or financial liabilities. Coal prices have declined even more since last year, but several factors have helped producers withstand further economic pain.

"Our analysis shows that the price floor provided by production costs has decreased significantly, not only because producers reduced costs by gaining economies of scale, better management and budget discipline, but also due to external factors," said Keisuke Sadamori, Director for Energy Markets and Security. "Depreciation of local currencies in the main exporting countries has been significant and low oil prices also help, as oil represents a significant share of coal costs, especially in open-pit operations."

Coal use in OECD member countries is projected to decline in the outlook period, as growth in Turkey, Korea and Japan fails to offset declines in Europe and America. In the United States, retirement of coal capacity and competition from shale gas will lead to a 1.7% decline per year on average during the forecast period. Australia is set to account for the largest growth in exports as Indonesia, driven by higher domestic demand and government policies, slows shipments abroad.

Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014 is part of an annual series whose other outlooks address oil, gas and renewables. The series also features a report on the market for energy efficiency.

 

 

Agreed that those figures werent realised due to the pandemic, but it doesnt mean they wont post pandemic.

Also agree that cost for coal is huge at present but the cost for renewables has sky rocketed also.

A lot will depend on whether China and India stick to what they say and actually commit to building the huge levels of renewables required or whether they backtrack and stick with coal.

Its interesting times notsonice and I'm in favour of renewables I guess as you say time will tell.

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48 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Agreed that those figures werent realised due to the pandemic, but it doesnt mean they wont post pandemic.

Also agree that cost for coal is huge at present but the cost for renewables has sky rocketed also.

A lot will depend on whether China and India stick to what they say and actually commit to building the huge levels of renewables required or whether they backtrack and stick with coal.

Its interesting times notsonice and I'm in favour of renewables I guess as you say time will tell.

here is the IEA forecast for electricity  production made in 2021, please note no increase or decrease in electricity from fossil  fuels for the next 25 years. My bet is IEA has no clue whatsoever and they are supposedly the experts...ha ha ha their 2014 forecast was a disaster , the chart below??? Their chart really paints a picture that Peak Coal happened in 2014. It does not look like the IEA puts any real work into their forecasts....Fire all of them

World electricity generation by energy source 2050 | Statista

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(edited)

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Germany and some other EU countries went (to use a poker term) "all in" on Russian gas as the go to energy source to transition to renewables due to mainly cost and that its less pollutive than other FF. The reason Merkel then expressed her concerns to Russia about weaponising oil is because she finally realised the catastrophic folly of being wholly reliant on a nation that is not an ally , but actually the opoosite. Her idiocy in this will go down in history as 1 of the most stupid things to have been done by any world leader.

To blame renewables as the reason for the energy crisis is just wrong. The infrastucture for renewables just doesnt exist to take up the slack in these countries. Just look at the countries that are heavily invested in renewables and nuclear such as all Scandinavian countries, France etc they already have that in place and dont have an energy crisis.

Germany's issues on powergen are down to political will, ie no nuclear after Fukushima, not building renewables quickly enough and yes to some extent decommissioning conventional FF plants. All countries IMHO should have a diverse energy generation mix and be self reliant on generating the energy needs of their country. 

To blame renewables is just wrong in so many ways EWO.

Perhaps a second look is in order here. This is a time for well grounded reasoning, not hyperbole nor emotional enthusiasm. Which I do criticize quite a bit.

 

The mistake the EU made was not fossil fuels but the Reliance on a unproven, high cost..form of energy development..below is article that tries to deflect there malfeasance.

 

Below is a link, the UK is already caught up in this rush to failure. We all need a planned outcome, not spending the wealth of a nation with no conclusive ending. Germany has demonstrated this type of behavior ends very badly.

UK electricity grid faces oversupply problems

The UK’s electricity grid will have an oversupply of renewable and nuclear more than half the time by the end of the decade, according to technology experts LCP.

 

The legal partner also called for policy changes would be key for the scale of investment needed in order to deliver the government’s ambition to achieve 95 per cent decarbonisation of the power sector by the end of the decade. 

Mason added: “Without a concerted programme of policy and regulatory reform to unlock this investment on a range of supporting technologies, there is a risk that the strategy will fail to cut bills in the long-term, and actually puts them up.”

https://www.cityam.com/uk-electricity-grid-faces-oversupply-problems/

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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(edited)

A lot of the nuclear and wind powergen will be to power electrolysers for green hydrogen which is going to be mixed into the NG network in the next 2 years, something I believe they havent considered.

One minute the UK is accused of a lack of power leading to outages and now its being accused of oversupply, which is it?

Edited by Rob Plant

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(edited)

12 hours ago, notsonice said:

you have revised numbers for 1980-2020???? history does not change with time....

PS 2021 was not even close to 2013/14......

what number did you get for the past 12 months of consumption?????? Please post it...........

Recorded history absolutely changes with time.  

What actually happened is all speculation. History is written by the war winners and the current zeitgeist etc.

Ever play the telephone game? Stories retold morph.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_whispers

 

Edited by TailingsPond

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On 6/8/2022 at 10:40 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Sigh, now we go back to:

India aims to cut power output from at least 81 coal-fired plants over 4 years

NEW DELHI, May 30 (Reuters) - India plans to reduce power generation from least 81 coal-fired utilities over the next four years, the federal power ministry said in a letter, in an effort to replace expensive thermal generation with cheaper green energy sources.

The plan aims to maximize green energy potential and save costs, the letter sent to top energy department officials of state and federal government said, but will not involve shutting down old and expensive power plants. India has 173 coal-fired plants.

"The thermal power plants in future shall operate up to the technical minimum to accommodate cheaper renewable energy when it is available," the ministry said in the letter dated May 26.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/india-plans-phase-down-least-81-coal-fired-utilities-4-years-document-2022-05-30/

Jay, read the fine print. These are not plans, just "aims". General ideas, not plans.

Coal production and consumption will continue upward in India. They "hope" that cheap green energy might happen...it won't.

"...will not involve shutting down old and expensive power plants. India has 173 coal-fired plants.

"The thermal power plants in future shall operate up to the technical minimum to accommodate cheaper renewable energy when it is available," the ministry said in the letter dated May 26."

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On 6/8/2022 at 11:06 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

No we are just talking about India.

No, we are talking about world production and consumption of coal, which is ramping up.

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20 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

These are investments that make money. This is the part that you guys can never comprehend. 

€323 billion can be saved by doubling renewables by 2030

The results are striking. The analysis finds that Europe can cut its power sector gas consumption in half, reduce energy costs by €323 billion by doubling its share of renewables – from around 33% now, to over 60%, by 2030. In turn, this would reduce electricity bills by 10%, while putting Europe on track to deliver its 55% GHG reduction target by 2030.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/opinion/europes-renewable-energy-future/

This is only a partial calculation, Total costs include government programs, rebuilding infrastructure, etc.

You need to look at the total bill.

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24 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

This is only a partial calculation, Total costs include government programs, rebuilding infrastructure, etc.

You need to look at the total bill.

One could only imagine that debacle. This Green Socialist movement will never submit to such trivialities..after all "they" have not a thing to lose. Other than whats left of their collective reasoning.

10e262d56b45c8a21ee00553cea5e3465736b46bda4ca62368cbb584c27c88f2 (1).gif

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1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

This is only a partial calculation, Total costs include government programs, rebuilding infrastructure, etc.

You need to look at the total bill.

Nope, it is a complete calculation.

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(edited)

44 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Nope, it is a complete calculation.

Nope, it ain't. Look at your own source.

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

Lithium prices are soaring, 500% in the past year.  A roadblock to EV development.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-World-Is-Scrambling-For-Lithium-Supply.html

"As many know, Lithium prices have seen a near 500% increase in the past year. Of course, most experts expect that trend to continue for some time."

Edited by Ecocharger

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4 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Perhaps a second look is in order here. This is a time for well grounded reasoning, not hyperbole nor emotional enthusiasm. Which I do criticize quite a bit.

 

The mistake the EU made was not fossil fuels but the Reliance on a unproven, high cost..form of energy development..below is article that tries to deflect there malfeasance.

 

Below is a link, the UK is already caught up in this rush to failure. We all need a planned outcome, not spending the wealth of a nation with no conclusive ending. Germany has demonstrated this type of behavior ends very badly.

UK electricity grid faces oversupply problems

The UK’s electricity grid will have an oversupply of renewable and nuclear more than half the time by the end of the decade, according to technology experts LCP.

 

The legal partner also called for policy changes would be key for the scale of investment needed in order to deliver the government’s ambition to achieve 95 per cent decarbonisation of the power sector by the end of the decade. 

Mason added: “Without a concerted programme of policy and regulatory reform to unlock this investment on a range of supporting technologies, there is a risk that the strategy will fail to cut bills in the long-term, and actually puts them up.”

https://www.cityam.com/uk-electricity-grid-faces-oversupply-problems/

The notion that excess electricity is a real problem is absurd. They are going to be happy to make hydrogen with it, put it in a battery or just curtail it. 

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Lithium prices have increased 500% this past year partly due to the environmental cost of the mining operations involved.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Major-Lithium-Producer-Could-Shut-German-Plant-Over-EU-Rule.html

"The European Commission is currently reviewing and assessing a proposal from the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) to classify lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide as substances hazardous to human health. An EU committee is meeting early next month to discuss the proposal, while a final decision on the issue is expected toward the end of this year or early next year.

If the EU decides to include the lithium chemicals in the hazardous category, it would deal a blow to its own goals of becoming self-sufficient in batteries this decade and significantly raise the share of electric vehicles on the roads.

 

The decision would change the way lithium producers and processors work and will add costs to their operations."

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(edited)

ESG investment rules are now going down for the count, and are no longer relevant to the market.

https://archive.ph/PDwx0

"There are now signs that interest in ESG investments is flagging. After more than three years of inflows, stock investors pulled about $2 billion from US exchange-traded ESG funds in May, the biggest monthly redemption on record, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Meanwhile, the Impact Shares MSCI Global Climate Select ETF is set to close after less than a year because none of the backers pitched in with anticipated funding."
Edited by Ecocharger

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9 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Perhaps a second look is in order here. This is a time for well grounded reasoning, not hyperbole nor emotional enthusiasm. Which I do criticize quite a bit.

Time to watch the Jan 6th hearings and eat crows, many crows. So many crows.  Crows like no body has seen.

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(edited)

So, according to the White House, oil companies are not really companies under American law, but rather some sort of state-owned welfare organizations which should distribute their earnings to American citizens, not to investors.

What country are we living in? The old Soviet Union?

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/White-House-Ups-Anti-Oil-Company-Rhetoric.html

"President Biden upped his anti-oil company rhetoric on Wednesday night on Jimmy Kimmel Live, accusing oil companies of making "more money not drilling and buying back their own stock."

Edited by Ecocharger

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6 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Lithium prices have increased 500% this past year partly due to the environmental cost of the mining operations involved.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Major-Lithium-Producer-Could-Shut-German-Plant-Over-EU-Rule.html

"The European Commission is currently reviewing and assessing a proposal from the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) to classify lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide as substances hazardous to human health. An EU committee is meeting early next month to discuss the proposal, while a final decision on the issue is expected toward the end of this year or early next year.

If the EU decides to include the lithium chemicals in the hazardous category, it would deal a blow to its own goals of becoming self-sufficient in batteries this decade and significantly raise the share of electric vehicles on the roads.

 

The decision would change the way lithium producers and processors work and will add costs to their operations."

Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Increased 38% In April 2022

For reference, the overall market (including hybrids in particular) continues to shrink

According to EV-Volumes data, shared by Jose Pontes, some 542,732 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in April, which is 38% more than a year ago. Market share amounted to about 10.2%, including 7% for all-electric cars.

 

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9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Increased 38% In April 2022

For reference, the overall market (including hybrids in particular) continues to shrink

According to EV-Volumes data, shared by Jose Pontes, some 542,732 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered in April, which is 38% more than a year ago. Market share amounted to about 10.2%, including 7% for all-electric cars.

 

That is still just tiddlywinks....less than 1% of the vehicle market value. 

And environmental decisions on lithium could scupper the EV business for good.

 

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(edited)

Oil markets are hot and going to get hotter. Spare capacity is virtually non-existent. Biden& Co. can whine and wail all they want, but there are capacity constraints preventing oil companies from ramping up production.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shrinking-Spare-Capacity-Will-Only-Send-Oil-Prices-Higher.html

"The decision by OPEC+ to boost its production quotas did not have the desired effect on oil markets, with prices having increased since then.

One of the main reasons for this upward pressure is that the world’s spare oil production capacity is extremely tight.

With so little spare capacity, the risk of Libya going offline or a major hurricane-induced disruption in the Gulf of Mexico has oil markets worried."

Edited by Ecocharger

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16 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

That is still just tiddlywinks....less than 1% of the vehicle market value. 

And environmental decisions on lithium could scupper the EV business for good.

 

EV sales just keep skyrocketing and ICE sales keep crashing. And it is more than 10% of new car sales which means it is more than 1% of total vehicle market sales value.

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44 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

That is still just tiddlywinks....less than 1% of the vehicle market value. 

And environmental decisions on lithium could scupper the EV business for good.

 

Wait, no 

"How is that fossil fuel car of yours doing? Still putt-putting along with huge emissions?"

or

"Do you enjoy your current fossil fuel vehicle?"

or

"And thanks for driving your fossil fuel vehicle and adding to the hot demand for oil and gasoline."

or

"I love it when you tank up your fossil fuel vehicle....thank you."

or

"Keep filling up your gas tank and driving your fossil fuel car"?

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(edited)

2 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Time to watch the Jan 6th hearings and eat crows, many crows. So many crows.  Crows like no body has seen.

Oh grasshopper have you already forgotten two impeachments. All centered around the Biden tribe. Turns out it was all true, in fact the fbi lied and denied the laptops existence.  Today we know it was reality. Today we know the Russian hoax was a hoax.

How this ends I do not know, but it will end badly.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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