GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

For you battery freaks

Mining Industry Warns Energy Transition Isn’t Sustainable

By Irina Slav - Jul 03, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

• There is a glaring problem in the energy transition that not many people are acknowledging. 
• It is being built on the back of finite resources, and the mining industry is already warning that there aren’t enough metals for all the batteries the transition will require.
• Because of the short supply, prices are on the rise, as are prices across commodity sectors.

Join Our Community

The energy transition has been set by politicians as the only way forward for human civilization. Not every country on the planet is on board with it, but those that are have the loudest voices. And even amid the fossil fuel crunch that is beginning to cripple economies, the transition remains a goal. It is no secret that the transition—at the scale its architects and most fervent proponents envisage it—would require massive amounts of metals and minerals. What does not get talked about so much is that most of these metals and minerals are already in short supply. And this is only the start of the transition problems.

Mining industry executives have been warning that there is not enough copper, lithium, cobalt, or nickel for all the EV batteries that the transition would require. And they have not been the only ones, either. Even so, the European Union just this month went ahead and effectively banned the sales of cars with internal combustion engines from 2035. 

“Rare earth materials are fundamental building blocks and their applications are very wide across modern life,” a senior VP at MP Minerals, a rare-earth miner, told Fortune this month. He added that “one third of the demand in 2035 is not projected to be satisfied based on investments that are happening now.”

Because of the short supply, prices are on the rise, as are prices across commodity sectors. According to a calculation by Barron’s, the price of a basket of EV battery metals that the service tracks has jumped by 50 percent over the past year as a result of various factors, including Western sanctions against Russia, which is a major supplier of such metals to Europe.

The combination of short supply and rising prices is, of course, making the energy transition even costlier than it has been projected to be. It has also reminded us all that because of these metals and minerals, which are exactly as finite as crude oil and natural gas, the transition is not towards a renewable-energy future. It is towards a lower-carbon future. And this future may perpetuate some of the worst models of the past we want so much to leave behind.

A lot of the battery metals that the energy transition needs are sourced from Africa, a continent fraught with poverty, corruption, and political uncertainty. It is also a continent that is currently threatened by a new sort of colonialism because of the energy transition.

In a recent analysis for Foreign Policy, Cobus van Staden, a China-Africa researcher from the South African Institute of International Affairs, wrote that the dirty secret of the green revolution is its insatiable hunger for resources from Africa and elsewhere that are produced using some of the world’s dirtiest technologies.

More importantly, van Staden added, “What’s more, the accelerated shift to batteries now threatens to replicate one of the most destructive dynamics in global economic history: the systematic extraction of raw commodities from the global south in a way that made developed countries unimaginably rich while leaving a trail of environmental degradation, human rights violations, and semipermanent underdevelopment all across the developing world.”

It is difficult to argue with this forecast if you know the history of resource exploitation in Africa. Sometimes called “the resource curse” and commonly used for oil, it has been in fact, a notable feature of the colonial and post-colonial period. Van Staden notes human rights violations, corruption, and the perpetuation of low labor and environmental standards, and he also notes that pretty much all foreign businesses in Africa’s mining sector are doing all this.

Related: Nickel Prices Surge As UK Sanctions Major Russian Miner

Based on this evidence, it appears that besides non-renewable, the energy transition appears to not be very socially conscious. In other words, the ESG investment movement, which focuses on transition companies, might, in fact, be a movement that rewards companies that are neither very environmentally nor socially friendly. At least not in Africa. And there are no white hats because, as Van Staden says, “The entire logic of the battery metals race is to secure national prosperity at home—not in Africa.”

It could perhaps be argued that unlike the last time—the Industrial Revolution—this time, we have a lot more mechanisms to protect human rights. As true as that may be, there hasn’t been a lot of progress on that in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, a huge country that is key for the transition because of its cobalt wealth.

Even with these mechanisms, there is no way to eliminate corruption unless all involved don’t want to eliminate it, which appears not to be the case with mining companies and resource-rich African governments. That’s the problem with corruption; it is hard to uproot. Corruption, in turn, affects environmental standards and fair compensation for workers, and the resource curse keeps its stranglehold on the continent.

The good news is that all these problems with the transition were more or less taboo until recently. Now they are being talked about more and more, and this would hopefully lead to a readjustment of goals or at least timelines to make them more realistic. Maybe, just maybe, the just transition idea will gather speed as well.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

For you battery freaks

Mining Industry Warns Energy Transition Isn’t Sustainable

By Irina Slav - Jul 03, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

• There is a glaring problem in the energy transition that not many people are acknowledging. 
• It is being built on the back of finite resources, and the mining industry is already warning that there aren’t enough metals for all the batteries the transition will require.
• Because of the short supply, prices are on the rise, as are prices across commodity sectors.

Join Our Community

The energy transition has been set by politicians as the only way forward for human civilization. Not every country on the planet is on board with it, but those that are have the loudest voices. And even amid the fossil fuel crunch that is beginning to cripple economies, the transition remains a goal. It is no secret that the transition—at the scale its architects and most fervent proponents envisage it—would require massive amounts of metals and minerals. What does not get talked about so much is that most of these metals and minerals are already in short supply. And this is only the start of the transition problems.

Mining industry executives have been warning that there is not enough copper, lithium, cobalt, or nickel for all the EV batteries that the transition would require. And they have not been the only ones, either. Even so, the European Union just this month went ahead and effectively banned the sales of cars with internal combustion engines from 2035. 

“Rare earth materials are fundamental building blocks and their applications are very wide across modern life,” a senior VP at MP Minerals, a rare-earth miner, told Fortune this month. He added that “one third of the demand in 2035 is not projected to be satisfied based on investments that are happening now.”

Because of the short supply, prices are on the rise, as are prices across commodity sectors. According to a calculation by Barron’s, the price of a basket of EV battery metals that the service tracks has jumped by 50 percent over the past year as a result of various factors, including Western sanctions against Russia, which is a major supplier of such metals to Europe.

The combination of short supply and rising prices is, of course, making the energy transition even costlier than it has been projected to be. It has also reminded us all that because of these metals and minerals, which are exactly as finite as crude oil and natural gas, the transition is not towards a renewable-energy future. It is towards a lower-carbon future. And this future may perpetuate some of the worst models of the past we want so much to leave behind.

A lot of the battery metals that the energy transition needs are sourced from Africa, a continent fraught with poverty, corruption, and political uncertainty. It is also a continent that is currently threatened by a new sort of colonialism because of the energy transition.

In a recent analysis for Foreign Policy, Cobus van Staden, a China-Africa researcher from the South African Institute of International Affairs, wrote that the dirty secret of the green revolution is its insatiable hunger for resources from Africa and elsewhere that are produced using some of the world’s dirtiest technologies.

More importantly, van Staden added, “What’s more, the accelerated shift to batteries now threatens to replicate one of the most destructive dynamics in global economic history: the systematic extraction of raw commodities from the global south in a way that made developed countries unimaginably rich while leaving a trail of environmental degradation, human rights violations, and semipermanent underdevelopment all across the developing world.”

It is difficult to argue with this forecast if you know the history of resource exploitation in Africa. Sometimes called “the resource curse” and commonly used for oil, it has been in fact, a notable feature of the colonial and post-colonial period. Van Staden notes human rights violations, corruption, and the perpetuation of low labor and environmental standards, and he also notes that pretty much all foreign businesses in Africa’s mining sector are doing all this.

Related: Nickel Prices Surge As UK Sanctions Major Russian Miner

Based on this evidence, it appears that besides non-renewable, the energy transition appears to not be very socially conscious. In other words, the ESG investment movement, which focuses on transition companies, might, in fact, be a movement that rewards companies that are neither very environmentally nor socially friendly. At least not in Africa. And there are no white hats because, as Van Staden says, “The entire logic of the battery metals race is to secure national prosperity at home—not in Africa.”

It could perhaps be argued that unlike the last time—the Industrial Revolution—this time, we have a lot more mechanisms to protect human rights. As true as that may be, there hasn’t been a lot of progress on that in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, a huge country that is key for the transition because of its cobalt wealth.

Even with these mechanisms, there is no way to eliminate corruption unless all involved don’t want to eliminate it, which appears not to be the case with mining companies and resource-rich African governments. That’s the problem with corruption; it is hard to uproot. Corruption, in turn, affects environmental standards and fair compensation for workers, and the resource curse keeps its stranglehold on the continent.

The good news is that all these problems with the transition were more or less taboo until recently. Now they are being talked about more and more, and this would hopefully lead to a readjustment of goals or at least timelines to make them more realistic. Maybe, just maybe, the just transition idea will gather speed as well.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Not only do LFP batteries not use cobalt but NMC use less cobalt than fossil fuels.

Cobalt plays a vital role in catalysing the removal of sulphur from oil, contributing to a more sustainable society. Desulphurisation is the process by which sulphur is removed from oil. A significant use of cobalt globally is as part of catalysts in this desulphurisation process. The use of cobalt in desulphurisation reactions represents the highest tonnage of cobalt use in the catalyst sector. https://www.cobaltinstitute.org/essential-cobalt-2/powering-the-green-economy/catalytic-converters/#:~:text=Cobalt plays a vital role,catalysts in this desulphurisation process.

Oh and the price of Cobalt continues to crash. Down over 7% on Friday.

nickel prices crashing as well

Edited July 4, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

24 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Not only do LFP batteries not use cobalt but NMC use less cobalt than fossil fuels.

Cobalt plays a vital role in catalysing the removal of sulphur from oil, contributing to a more sustainable society. Desulphurisation is the process by which sulphur is removed from oil. A significant use of cobalt globally is as part of catalysts in this desulphurisation process. The use of cobalt in desulphurisation reactions represents the highest tonnage of cobalt use in the catalyst sector. https://www.cobaltinstitute.org/essential-cobalt-2/powering-the-green-economy/catalytic-converters/#:~:text=Cobalt plays a vital role,catalysts in this desulphurisation process.

Jay, it's not just cobalt: 

Mining industry executives have been warning that there is not enough copper, lithium, cobalt, or nickel for all the EV batteries that the transition would require. And they have not been the only ones, either. Even so, the European Union just this month went ahead and effectively banned the sales of cars with internal combustion engines from 2035.

By 2035 the EU will still have many gas and diesel cars... Europeans buy and keep them damn near forever whereas us Americans turn cars and light duty pickups about every 5 years on average. So by 2050 unless they buy all the petro burning vehichles in the EU, that's still a long ways away. I won't see it but my kids will. In upcoming election if the house and senate flip, ol' Joe gonna be lame duck and his philosophy will probably be history.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

14 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Jay, it's not just cobalt: 

Mining industry executives have been warning that there is not enough copper, lithium, cobalt, or nickel for all the EV batteries that the transition would require. And they have not been the only ones, either. Even so, the European Union just this month went ahead and effectively banned the sales of cars with internal combustion engines from 2035.

By 2035 the EU will still have many gas and diesel cars... Europeans buy and keep them damn near forever whereas us Americans turn cars and light duty pickups about every 5 years on average. So by 2050 unless they buy all the petro burning vehichles in the EU, that's still a long ways away. I won't see it but my kids will. In upcoming election if the house and senate flip, ol' Joe gonna be lame duck and his philosophy will probably be history.

There are plenty of materials for EVs especially considering that almost all of them can be recouped through recycling. EVs are setting new records every month but the price of battery metals are decreasing or holding steady.  Here is copper:

The problem you guys have is something called reality.

The average age of a car in the US is 12.2 years.https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2022/05/24/average-american-car-12-years-old/9907901002/

The average age of a car in Europe is 11.8 years. https://www.acea.auto/figure/average-age-of-eu-vehicle-fleet-by-country/

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

As Lithium Drilling Advances at the Salton Sea, Researchers Work Out the Details

A report from the California Energy Commission said the Salton Sea area alone could generate more than 600,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate – more than the total global demand in 2021.

https://www.kcet.org/news-community/as-lithium-drilling-advances-at-the-salton-sea-researchers-work-out-the-details

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

51 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

nickel prices crashing as well

Edited 25 minutes ago by Jay McKinsey

Nickel Prices Surge As UK Sanctions Major Russian Miner

By Ag Metal Miner - Jul 02, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

• Nickel prices jumped by 6% following news that the UK government has added Vladimir Potanin, Norisk Nickel’s president, to its list of sanctioned individuals.
• Potanin, the board chairman for Moscow-based conglomerate Interros,  holds a 35.9% stake in Norilsk Nickel.
• Norilsk, one of the world’s largest single nickel producers, accounts for approximately 7% of the global supply.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

Nickel Prices Surge As UK Sanctions Major Russian Miner | OilPrice.com

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

As Lithium Drilling Advances at the Salton Sea, Researchers Work Out the Details

A report from the California Energy Commission said the Salton Sea area alone could generate more than 600,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate – more than the total global demand in 2021.

https://www.kcet.org/news-community/as-lithium-drilling-advances-at-the-salton-sea-researchers-work-out-the-details

Lithium is toxic on its own level that the British are considering banning it. Newsome will drill for this toxin but not oil? Glad I don't live in California. Illinois almost as bad lol.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

10 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Nickel Prices Surge As UK Sanctions Major Russian Miner

By Ag Metal Miner - Jul 02, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

• Nickel prices jumped by 6% following news that the UK government has added Vladimir Potanin, Norisk Nickel’s president, to its list of sanctioned individuals.
• Potanin, the board chairman for Moscow-based conglomerate Interros,  holds a 35.9% stake in Norilsk Nickel.
• Norilsk, one of the world’s largest single nickel producers, accounts for approximately 7% of the global supply.

Old news, that was on June 29th. By July 1st the price was back down below where it was when this news broke.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Old news, that was on June 29th. By July 1st the price was back down below where it was when this news broke.

By Ag Metal Miner - Jul 02, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

Are you serious? Yesterday is/was old news??? Okayyyyyy

Edited July 4, 2022 by Old-Ruffneck

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Old-Ruffneck said:

Lithium is toxic on its own level that the British are considering banning it. Newsome will drill for this toxin but not oil? Glad I don't live in California. Illinois almost as bad lol.

No Britain is not declaring Lithium is toxic and our Lithium is a by product of the geothermal energy at the Salton Sea. All the energy to produce it will be 100% green.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The problem you guys have is something called reality.

Now that is interesting commentary. Six hundred thousand EV's were made last year and the supply chain commodity markets are facing massive supply issues along with explosive cost increases.....US auto production was 9 million last year...in a severely hampered market. The resource needed to make 1 million would deplete world supplies.

The hyperbole you post is beyond psychotic..perhaps reality is a topic you wish to may wish to embrace with some forethought...LMAO maybe building some battery infrastructure for the EU..Green activism has left a wasteland in its path.

 

600,000 a speed bump at best...

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

No Britain is not declaring Lithium is toxic and our Lithium is a by product of the geothermal energy at the Salton Sea. All the energy to produce it will be 100% green.

Jay, you are living in a wishful fantasy world. While EV's are slowly gaining in sales, about half are city commuters. Tiny Chevy Bolts are to me not a safe vehicle when there are too many SUV's. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

3 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

By Ag Metal Miner - Jul 02, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

No, they wrote that note on July 1st. By the end of the trading day the price had dropped back to below where it was before the news broke. Oil price is just behind as usual.

Vladimir Potanin Sanctioned by the UK and Nickel Price Impact

by Jennifer Kary on JULY 1, 2022

https://agmetalminer.com/

Indonesia, for instance, has been ramping up its nickel production exponentially. This will effect its nickel price. In fact, estimates put the country’s primary production forecast for 2022 at 1.3 million metric tonnes. That’s a 52% increase on the year. Currently, primary nickel demand within Europe is forecasted at 310,000 metric tonnes for the year. This is a significant increase from 2021, when demand was 300,000. Fortunately, the LME does not require high-quality nickel for all of the nickel it pushes through.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Old-Ruffneck said:

Jay, you are living in a wishful fantasy world. While EV's are slowly gaining in sales, about half are city commuters. Tiny Chevy Bolts are to me not a safe vehicle when there are too many SUV's. 

EVs in the US are growing at 45.5% in the US, anything but slow and 70% of them are Teslas which are not city commuters. Actually in the US very few are city commuters.  The growth rate is much faster in China, the world's largest car market. Oh and EV city commuters are as valid as any ICE city commuter of which there are a vast number.

Globally at 55%:

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 55% in May 2022 compared to May 2021.That represents 12% share of the overall auto market (8.6% BEV share). https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/29/electric-car-sales-global-top-20/

US Plug-In Vehicle Sales

A total of 73,608 plug-in vehicles (57,804 BEVs and 15,804 PHEVs) were sold during May 2022 in the United States, up 45.5% from the sales in May 2021. PEVs captured 6.66% of total LDV sales this month. https://www.anl.gov/es/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

13 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Now that is interesting commentary. Six hundred thousand EV's were made last year and the supply chain commodity markets are facing massive supply issues along with explosive cost increases.....US auto production was 9 million last year...in a severely hampered market. The resource needed to make 1 million would deplete world supplies.

The hyperbole you post is beyond psychotic..perhaps reality is a topic you wish to may wish to embrace with some forethought...LMAO maybe building some battery infrastructure for the EU..Green activism has left a wasteland in its path.

 

600,000 a speed bump at best...

You are as demented as ever. 

EV sales last year were Electric car (EV) sales, including fully electric and plug-in hybrids, doubled in 2021 to a record 6.6 million,

Despite global supply chain struggles, EV sales have been rising strongly in 2022, with 2 million EVs sold worldwide in the first quarter, up 75% from the same period last year. Globally, the number of EVs on the road by the end of 2021 was about 16.5 million, triple the amount in 2018.

In China, EV sales nearly tripled in 2021 to 3.3 million, about half of the global total. In Europe, sales grew by 65% to 2.3 million. In the U.S. sales more than doubled to 630,000.

 https://www.globalfleetmanagement.com/10173079/global-ev-sales-continue-strong-in-2022#:~:text=Despite global supply chain struggles,triple the amount in 2018.

[pfarley@bigpond.net.au + 36]

Eyes Wide Open can only see to the US border Jay. He thinks it is 1950 when the US was half the world's auto market

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

1 hour ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

Eyes Wide Open can only see to the US border Jay. He thinks it is 1950 when the US was half the world's auto market

You just made his point for him.... Please type more, this is getting hilarious.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

1 hour ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

Eyes Wide Open can only see to the US border Jay. He thinks it is 1950 when the US was half the world's auto market

To some extent you are quite correct. The US cannot afford the recklessness the EU displayed with it's green energy transition..and that was a very very kind characterization.

As to the world bodies/countries let them do as they please, the US has no skin in the game. Frankly it is time for each country to settle their own affairs, this world would be in a by far better place.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,539]

15 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You just made his point for him.... Please type more, this is getting hilarious.

Interesting is it not.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 7/1/2022 at 4:15 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Everything in your post points to peak oil having occurred.

No, everything there points to high and continuing oil demand, with oil prices having no where to go but up.

If oil prices can only go up. that means that someone with brains will be  investing in some good energy stocks....with a fossil fuel connection.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Should-Stay-In-Triple-Digits-Analyst.html

"...Smith sees crude oil prices supported by OPEC, because while they are saying they continue to put more oil onto the market, they are failing to boost their exports. In fact, as Smith points out, we’ve seen Saudi Arabia’s exports drop in recent months.

So while OPEC is saying they are producing more, “We’re not seeing those barrels actually hitting the market. We’re not seeing an increase in terms of those exports.”

Smith also points to forecasts of lower crude oil production out of Russia by the end of the year—a support for higher oil prices.   

“This is very much a supply-side story, and we should remain above triple digits here.”

Crude oil prices were rallying on Friday ahead of the long weekend in the United States, with WTI crude up 2.73% on the day at $108.70. The high crude oil and gasoline prices in the United States pose a problem for the Biden Administration, which has proposed numerous strategies for lowering crude oil and gasoline prices--so far to no avail.

The average gallon of gasoline in the United States is still up $.171 over the last month, and up $1.719 per gallon from a year ago."

Edited July 4, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 7/1/2022 at 4:31 PM, notsonice said:

more BS babble from the guy who loves his ICE clunkers and $5 GAS.......

oil demand rages on???? in the face of the US dropping Gas demand in the past 6 months by close to a million barrels a day and you can bet the rest of the world is on the same track.........

Peak oil happened and it was brought to you by your master, Putin and his pal MBS in Saudi Arabia

 

Permanent demand destruction is happening now....ICE vehicles are being replaced with EV's

Enjoy your $5 gas

 

You are really out of touch, old boy. EVs are a miniscule part of the picture, less than 1%. 

Demand for oil is pushing prices up to high levels, while you are just sitting on the sidelines watching it all happen.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 7/1/2022 at 4:14 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Which negates EWO's proposition. 

Which negates your fantasy, you mean.

The Supreme Court moves with the times, they are not stuck in any ruts of your limited imagination.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

10 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

 

“This is very much a supply-side story, and we should remain above triple digits here.”

 

And yet again your post says it is a supply shortage not high demand that is driving the price of oil.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Boat + 1,315]

If you look at the EIA import export chart not only is there plenty of oil for consumption the US averages over 1 mbpd of net exports. Gross exports are over 9 mbpd including over 1.250 bpd of diesel. So plenty of oil, plenty of diesel and plenty of foreign oil industry feeding corrupt US politicions. Echo, renowned foreign weighted math skilled reporter is committed to being a anti EIA chart reader. Lol

In good news I hear the Chinese are divesting over 20 billion in west oil assets. The West is divesting from Russia. Ain’t it great. Sleepy Biden is kicking their butt. Lol It will be a sad day when the Chinese and Russians quit funding the rednecks here at OilPrice.com. I will miss the Mongolian coal propaganda.