GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[notsonice + 1,063]

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

We saw 9.25 in July, that sounds good for a Biden recession number. We will see how seriously the Biden recession impacts overall consumer spending, but recessions do not last very long if monetary policy corrects the inflation problem in a short time frame.

9.25 ??? deadcats bounce

are you having difficulties staying on topic??

you have been babbling non-stop how there is no demand problem for gasoline. Remember back in June you predicted the driving season will prop up the price????? Yet today the price of Gasoline is crashing.

If you are a paid troll , you are definitely overpaid.

PS the failing price of gasoline is all do to collapse in demand

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by notsonice

[Polyphia + 67]

20 minutes ago, notsonice said:

You saw gasoline at $9.25 in July??????

are you having difficulties staying on topic??

you have been babbling non-stop how there is no demand problem for gasoline. Remember back in June you predicted the driving season will prop up the price????? Yet today the price of Gasoline is crashing.

If you are a paid troll , you are definitely overpaid.

PS the failing price of gasoline is all do to collapse in demand

 

I think Ecocharger was referring to the 9.25 million b/d of gasoline demand last week. Despite that, Ecocharger is wrong about most things (and likes to repeat those incorrect claims ad nauseam).

[Polyphia + 67]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Which means that the fossil fuel vehicles continue to be technologically advanced and attractive to lower income buyers.

That's fine.

Just curious--did you downvote my recent post because I called you out on your incorrect analysis or because I criticized the orange man (or both)?

[notsonice + 1,063]

54 minutes ago, Polyphia said:

I think Ecocharger was referring to the 9.25 million b/d of gasoline demand last week. Despite that, Ecocharger is wrong about most things (and likes to repeat those incorrect claims ad nauseam).

today's plunge of 5% to $2.74 on the wholesale market does not show that there is any real demand at a rate of 9.25 million b/d.

he can cling onto hope, but reality is the market for gasoline has cratered. Right now it is a race to the bottom. The only question is where is the bottom. Crude off today by $3 shows the whole oil market is in a giant correction. I stand by my  prediction of $90 Brent Crude before Thanksgiving and $80 Crude before XMAS......Gasoline will be less than $3 a gallon by xmas. Sleepy Joes sale from the SPR will look like a stroke of Genius.

[notsonice + 1,063]

 

ecochump, just can't catch a break

 

highlights.....Product supplied of gasoline – a proxy for demand – fell about 700,000 bpd to 8.5 million bpd.

"There's nothing good in this report for anybody unless you're waiting for things to fall apart and to be a buyer on the downside," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

 

 

U.S. crude, gasoline stockpiles rise unexpectedly: EIA

By Reuters_News

 

14:42 (UTC), 3 August 2022

NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week as exports fell and refiners lowered their runs, while gasoline stocks also posted a surprise build as demand slowed, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories rose by 4.5 million barrels in the week to July 29 to 426.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000-barrel drop.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. futures USOICC=ECI rose by 926,000 barrels in the week, the EIA said.

Refinery crude runs USOICR=ECI fell by 174,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rates USOIRU=ECI dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 91% of total capacity.

"There's nothing good in this report for anybody unless you're waiting for things to fall apart and to be a buyer on the downside," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Meanwhile, net crude imports USOICI=ECI rose by 2.21 million bpd, the EIA said. U.S. crude exports fell about 1 million bpd to 3.5 million bpd.

 

Exports fell despite U.S. crude's discount to Brent widening to over $11.00 per barrel last week, the widest since April 2020. A wider discount typically makes U.S. crude more attractive to foreign buyers.

"You would expect exports to supersize while the Brent/WTI was flying off the handle, but exports are down over a million barrels on the week," Yawger said.

Gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI rose by about 200,000 barrels in the week to 225.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel drop.

Product supplied of gasoline – a proxy for demand – fell about 700,000 bpd to 8.5 million bpd.

Distillate stockpiles USOILD=ECI, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week to 109.3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1 million-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

21 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So now you don't know the difference between natural gas and gasoline.  9.25 was natural gas, we are discussing gasoline

"Gas" in the article appears to refer to gasoline, read again.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

19 hours ago, Polyphia said:

Just curious--did you downvote my recent post because I called you out on your incorrect analysis or because I criticized the orange man (or both)?

Because of your faulty logic.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

18 hours ago, notsonice said:

today's plunge of 5% to $2.74 on the wholesale market does not show that there is any real demand at a rate of 9.25 million b/d.

he can cling onto hope, but reality is the market for gasoline has cratered. Right now it is a race to the bottom. The only question is where is the bottom. Crude off today by $3 shows the whole oil market is in a giant correction. I stand by my  prediction of $90 Brent Crude before Thanksgiving and $80 Crude before XMAS......Gasoline will be less than $3 a gallon by xmas. Sleepy Joes sale from the SPR will look like a stroke of Genius.

I guess today's upsurge is related to...what? 

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

17 hours ago, notsonice said:

 

ecochump, just can't catch a break

 

highlights.....Product supplied of gasoline – a proxy for demand – fell about 700,000 bpd to 8.5 million bpd.

"There's nothing good in this report for anybody unless you're waiting for things to fall apart and to be a buyer on the downside," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

 

 

U.S. crude, gasoline stockpiles rise unexpectedly: EIA

By Reuters_News

 

14:42 (UTC), 3 August 2022

NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week as exports fell and refiners lowered their runs, while gasoline stocks also posted a surprise build as demand slowed, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories rose by 4.5 million barrels in the week to July 29 to 426.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000-barrel drop.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. futures USOICC=ECI rose by 926,000 barrels in the week, the EIA said.

Refinery crude runs USOICR=ECI fell by 174,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rates USOIRU=ECI dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 91% of total capacity.

"There's nothing good in this report for anybody unless you're waiting for things to fall apart and to be a buyer on the downside," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

Meanwhile, net crude imports USOICI=ECI rose by 2.21 million bpd, the EIA said. U.S. crude exports fell about 1 million bpd to 3.5 million bpd.

 

Exports fell despite U.S. crude's discount to Brent widening to over $11.00 per barrel last week, the widest since April 2020. A wider discount typically makes U.S. crude more attractive to foreign buyers.

"You would expect exports to supersize while the Brent/WTI was flying off the handle, but exports are down over a million barrels on the week," Yawger said.

Gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI rose by about 200,000 barrels in the week to 225.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel drop.

Product supplied of gasoline – a proxy for demand – fell about 700,000 bpd to 8.5 million bpd.

Distillate stockpiles USOILD=ECI, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week to 109.3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1 million-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.

Biden's recession will impact markets, so what is surprising here?

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Texas has found itself in trouble by overreliance on renewable energy.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Renewables-Falter-As-Texas-Power-Grid-Sees-Record-Demand.html

"In reality, power generation falters without wind and sunshine, leaving the grid exposed to vulnerability just when it needs those renewables the most. While renewables can help the grid during mild weather and normal operations, renewables sometimes fail during peak demand and heatwaves. 

This they did in the middle of July, amid record-setting extreme heat and record power demand in Texas.  "

Edited August 5, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

I guess today's upsurge is related to...what? 

A typical dead cat bounce. 

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

5 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

A typical dead cat bounce. 

What is a "dead cat"?  That comes from your training in economics, Jay? Never heard of  it. It has no analytical content or status.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

"Gas" in the article appears to refer to gasoline, read again.

There was no article, just you and you said gas reached 9.25 in July. The gasoline high in July was 3.85. Natural gas was 9.25.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Here is the real reason oil prices rose today, amore fundamental analysis. "Dead cats" are for technical folks. Oil markets are still tight with oil and gasoline inventories about 25% below their ten year average.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Climb-Even-As-Payroll-Report-Surprises.html

"....the oil market remains tight, with OPEC+ adjusting down its outlook for a global surplus this year. The group agreed to adjust its production targets up by a small figure of 100,000 bpd for September, although 100% of the group’s production cuts were unwound as of August.

One day after the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its crude oil to all markets for most crude grades. This action is typically followed by other Gulf producers raising their crude prices in response as well. Saudi Arabia’s price hike for Arab Light for September loading to Asia is now at a record high of $9.80 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai price."

Edited August 5, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

What is a "dead cat"?  That comes from your training in economics, Jay? Never heard of  it.

If you never heard of a dead cat bounce then you aren't an economist.

In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock.^[1] Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height",^[2] the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. This may also be known as a Sucker Rally.^[3]

A "dead cat bounce" price pattern may be used as a part of the technical analysis method of stock trading. Technical analysis describes a dead cat bounce as a continuation pattern in which a reversal of the current decline occurs followed by a significant price recovery. The price fails to continue upward and instead falls again downwards and surpasses the previous low.^[14] 

 

[Polyphia + 67]

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

What is a "dead cat"?  That comes from your training in economics, Jay? Never heard of  it. It has no analytical status.

https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780198759430.001.0001/acref-9780198759430-e-4058?rskey=iwphtg&result=789

dead cat bounce 

A term used by stock market traders to describe a small and temporary rise in share prices that occurs after a sustained fall. The term is based on the observation that even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from a sufficiently high building

You really don't have a clue about much of anything.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

If you never heard of a dead cat bounce then you aren't an economist.

In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock.^[1] Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height",^[2] the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. This may also be known as a Sucker Rally.^[3]

A "dead cat bounce" price pattern may be used as a part of the technical analysis method of stock trading. Technical analysis describes a dead cat bounce as a continuation pattern in which a reversal of the current decline occurs followed by a significant price recovery. The price fails to continue upward and instead falls again downwards and surpasses the previous low.^[14] 

 

"Dead cat" has no analytical substance, no fundamental meaning, it is merely a jargon and of no value. I gave you the fundamental explanation of today's rally above.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

3 minutes ago, Polyphia said:

https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780198759430.001.0001/acref-9780198759430-e-4058?rskey=iwphtg&result=789

dead cat bounce 

A term used by stock market traders to describe a small and temporary rise in share prices that occurs after a sustained fall. The term is based on the observation that even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from a sufficiently high building

You really don't have a clue about much of anything.

You are drowning in jargon, of which this term is a part. It has no fundamental value or definition.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

11 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

There was no article, just you and you said gas reached 9.25 in July. The gasoline high in July was 3.85. Natural gas was 9.25.

Jay, do you bother to read anything? Here is the reference.

"..oil and gasoline demand in America is so robust and fundamental to daily living that there has been no demand destruction related to increased oil prices.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Refiners-Havent-Seen-Fuel-Demand-Destruction.html

"U.S. refiners: there's no indication of fuel demand destruction.

The latest reporting week in EIA data showed that gasoline demand increased from 8.52 million barrels per day (bpd) to 9.25 million bpd last week.

The weekly inventory reports from the EIA at the beginning of July pointed to faltering demand after nationwide gasoline prices hit an average of $5 a gallon in the middle of June."

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

"Dead cat" has no analytical substance, no fundamental meaning, it is merely a jargon and of no value. I gave you the fundamental explanation of today's rally above.

You gave no explanation. 

The article you cited did not say that oil prices were up because of the news it said they were up in spite of the news! The news that came out is considered bearish not bullish.

 

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You gave no explanation. 

The article you cited did not say that oil prices were up because of the news it said they were up in spite of the news! The news that came out is considered bearish not bullish.

 

Get your reading glasses out, old boy. Here is the explanation again, for your personal benefit. Oil markets remain tight with inventories at a low level.

"....the oil market remains tight, with OPEC+ adjusting down its outlook for a global surplus this year. The group agreed to adjust its production targets up by a small figure of 100,000 bpd for September, although 100% of the group’s production cuts were unwound as of August.

One day after the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its crude oil to all markets for most crude grades. This action is typically followed by other Gulf producers raising their crude prices in response as well. Saudi Arabia’s price hike for Arab Light for September loading to Asia is now at a record high of $9.80 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai price."

Edited August 5, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Some suggestions here that the numbers may have been "adjusted" to serve a political purpose.

Certainly oil markets are tight and sales appear to be robust, so how do the numbers reflect something else?

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/very-crooked-numbers-biden-admin-accused-fabricating-gas-demand-data-hammer-price-oil

Edited August 5, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Get your reading glasses out, old boy. Here is the explanation again, for your personal benefit. Oil markets remain tight with inventories at a low level.

"....the oil market remains tight, with OPEC+ adjusting down its outlook for a global surplus this year. The group agreed to adjust its production targets up by a small figure of 100,000 bpd for September, although 100% of the group’s production cuts were unwound as of August.

One day after the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia raised the price of its crude oil to all markets for most crude grades. This action is typically followed by other Gulf producers raising their crude prices in response as well. Saudi Arabia’s price hike for Arab Light for September loading to Asia is now at a record high of $9.80 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai price."

You clueless buffoon. That meeting happened two days ago. It most certainly doesn't explain today's bump up in oil prices. Yesterday, one day after the meeting, gasoline prices were way down.

31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

No 23/2022
Vienna, Austria
03 Aug 2022

 The 31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference on 3 August 2022.

The Meeting noted the dynamic and rapidly evolving oil market fundamentals, necessitating continuous assessment of market conditions.

The Meeting noted that the severely limited availability of excess capacity necessitates utilizing it with great caution in response to severe supply disruptions.

The Meeting noted that chronic underinvestment in the oil sector has reduced excess capacities along the value chain (upstream/midstream/downstream).

The Meeting highlighted with particular concern that insufficient investment into the upstream sector will impact the availability of adequate supply in a timely manner to meet growing demand beyond 2023 from non-participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries, some OPEC Member Countries and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries. 

It noted that preliminary data for OECD commercial oil stocks level stood at 2,712 mb in June 2022, which was 163 mb lower than the same time last year, and 236 mb below the 2015-2019 average, and that emergency oil stocks have reached their lowest levels in more than 30 years.

The Meeting also noted that Declaration of Cooperation conformity has averaged 130% since May 2020, supported by voluntary contributions of some participating countries. 

Emphasizing the value and importance of maintaining consensus as essential to the cohesion of OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and in view of the latest oil market fundamentals, the Participating Countries decided to:

1. Reaffirm the decision of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12 April 2020 and further endorsed in subsequent meetings including the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on the 18 July 2021.
    
2. Adjust upward the production level for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries by 0.1 mb/d for the month of September 2022 as per the attached table. This adjustment does not affect the baselines decided on the above-mentioned Meeting on 18 July 2021.
    
3. Reiterate the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and to the compensation mechanism. Compensation plans should be submitted in accordance with the statement of the 15th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.
    
4. Hold the 32nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 5 September 2022.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You clueless buffoon. That meeting happened two days ago. It most certainly doesn't explain today's bump up in oil prices. Yesterday, one day after the meeting, gasoline prices were way down.

31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

No 23/2022
Vienna, Austria
03 Aug 2022

 The 31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference on 3 August 2022.

The Meeting noted the dynamic and rapidly evolving oil market fundamentals, necessitating continuous assessment of market conditions.

The Meeting noted that the severely limited availability of excess capacity necessitates utilizing it with great caution in response to severe supply disruptions.

The Meeting noted that chronic underinvestment in the oil sector has reduced excess capacities along the value chain (upstream/midstream/downstream).

The Meeting highlighted with particular concern that insufficient investment into the upstream sector will impact the availability of adequate supply in a timely manner to meet growing demand beyond 2023 from non-participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries, some OPEC Member Countries and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries. 

It noted that preliminary data for OECD commercial oil stocks level stood at 2,712 mb in June 2022, which was 163 mb lower than the same time last year, and 236 mb below the 2015-2019 average, and that emergency oil stocks have reached their lowest levels in more than 30 years.

The Meeting also noted that Declaration of Cooperation conformity has averaged 130% since May 2020, supported by voluntary contributions of some participating countries. 

Emphasizing the value and importance of maintaining consensus as essential to the cohesion of OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and in view of the latest oil market fundamentals, the Participating Countries decided to:

1. Reaffirm the decision of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12 April 2020 and further endorsed in subsequent meetings including the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on the 18 July 2021.
    
2. Adjust upward the production level for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries by 0.1 mb/d for the month of September 2022 as per the attached table. This adjustment does not affect the baselines decided on the above-mentioned Meeting on 18 July 2021.
    
3. Reiterate the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and to the compensation mechanism. Compensation plans should be submitted in accordance with the statement of the 15th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.
    
4. Hold the 32nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 5 September 2022.

Read your own material, dummy. Oil markets remain tight and demand is still robust. The numbers may not reflect the reality.

That is the explanation for the rebound today. The markets cannot be fooled indefinitely.

Read this,

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/very-crooked-numbers-biden-admin-accused-fabricating-gas-demand-data-hammer-price-oil

Edited August 5, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Read your own material, dummy. Oil markets remain tight and demand is still robust. The numbers may not reflect the reality.

That is the explanation for the rebound today. The markets cannot be fooled indefinitely.

Your big rebound in prices today is already gone because it was a dead cat bounce. Oil is now down from yesterday's close:

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Jay McKinsey