GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

4 minutes ago, bloodman33 said:

I don't read any of the posts any more.  I am just dumbfounded on all the losers that still post opinions that nobody cares about.  For the most part it is just an echo chamber of oil industry shills. That said, I have made over 1 million betting on oil, refinery and tanker stocks in the last 1.5 years. The industry will eventually die, but not today.  I have no problems making money before it does.  Thank you Mr. Putin for making me pretty rich.  Regarding the industry shills.  I hope you are getting paid to post, otherwise seriously, get a life.

The science of climate has been seriously misrepresented in the public arena, so that alone is worth initiating a substantial overview of the major issues on these pages. 

As you can see, this type of perusal arouses many interested viewers and provokes much lively discussion.

Of course, if you are not into science debate, I can see how this might be boring to you.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Rob Plant + 2,601]

On 2/11/2023 at 2:33 AM, Ecocharger said:

Hybrid = fossil fuel vehicle

Exactly! best of both worlds!

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

At last, some rational economic analysis, instead of the mindless pablum we are usually getting fed by the liberal loonies running the nation.. Inflation is not a product of the increase of oil prices last year, that was the usual political line we got fed.

Here is the reality,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Correlation-Between-Oil-Prices-And-Inflation-Isnt-Straightforward.html

"A new study has found that high gas prices have a much lower impact on U.S. core inflation"

"According to Kessler, government stimulus programs are to blame for the current economic woes, and people will start drawing on their home’s equity again because “there aren’t a lot of options left” after credit card debt recently surged to 18-year high."

Edited February 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 460]

33 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

At last, some rational economic analysis, instead of the mindless pablum we are usually getting fed by the liberal loonies running the nation.. Inflation is not a product of the increase of oil prices last year, that was the usual political line we got fed.

 

Read the article. 

It says "lower impact."   It does not deny the effect of increased oil prices as you do.

"the organization has found that whereas a one-time unexpected increase in gasoline prices does cause a sharp increase in U.S. headline consumer price inflation (CPI), the response only persists for two months"

Edited February 13, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

Read the article. 

It says "lower impact."   It does not deny the effect of increased oil prices as you do.

"the organization has found that whereas a one-time unexpected increase in gasoline prices does cause a sharp increase in U.S. headline consumer price inflation (CPI), the response only persists for two months"

You missed the main points, that core inflation is not impacted by gasoline prices. The impact on core inflation is "indistinguishable from zero". I guess you have trouble with reading comprehension.

Do you know what "indistinguishable from zero" means?  I guess not.

Am I surprised at your lack of comprehension of basic terms? Again, no. Typical Green garbage.

"CEPR goes on to say that much of the increase in inflation triggered by rising crude prices occurs in the first month after the rise in crude prices but is only short-lived.  

According to CEPR, past attempts at quantifying the inflationary effects of energy price shocks often relied on empirical methods that have been demonstrated to be invalid. 

By using state-of-the-art vector autoregressive models, however, the organization has found that whereas a one-time unexpected increase in gasoline prices does cause a sharp increase in U.S. headline consumer price inflation (CPI), the response only persists for two months before becoming indistinguishable from zero."

 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 460]

11 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

"indistinguishable from zero". I guess you have trouble with reading comprehension.

By using state-of-the-art vector autoregressive models, however, the organization has found that whereas a one-time unexpected increase in gasoline prices does cause a sharp increase in U.S. headline consumer price inflation (CPI), the response only persists for two months before becoming indistinguishable from zero."

 

 

Imagine you get sick and go to the doctor. The doctor says "your sickness will only be statistically significant for two months."

Does that mean you were never sick? 

Does "indistinguishable from zero" mean you fully recovered?

Edited February 13, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

5 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Imagine you get sick and go to the doctor. The doctor says "your sickness will only be statistically significant for two months."

Does that mean you were never sick? 

Does "indistinguishable from zero" mean you fully recovered?

Obviously economic models are not your strong point....read what it says, and learn how to understand economic models.

"the response only persists for two months before becoming indistinguishable from zero.""

Zero means 0.

Edited February 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

This is where the rubber meets the road, take away the subsidies and EVs are out of gas.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-Electric-Vehicles-Continue-To-Thrive-Without-Subsidies.html

"Sales of electric vehicles in Germany have fallen after subsidies were reduced.

Politicians have used subsidies to fuel electric vehicle sales, but governments can’t afford to keep the subsidies in place forever.

Electric vehicles also pose a problem for aging power grids, which, if not updated, will not be able to support a full transition."
 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 460]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Zero means 0.

 

"Indistinguishable from zero" does not mean zero.

In scientific terms it just mean the p value is greater than 0.05.  The effect can still be there but it is no longer statistically significant.  You have to accept the null.

Getting sick and then recovering is not the same as never had being sick.

Edited February 14, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

2 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

"Indistinguishable from zero" does not mean zero.

In scientific terms it just mean the p value is greater than 0.05.  The effect can still be there but it is no longer statistically significant.  You have to accept the null.

Getting sick and then recovering is not the same as never had being sick.

You are off the track again, the point of the study is that higher oil prices contribute nothing to the core rate of inflation, and therefore do not influence basic monetary policy decisions. If a politician is blaming high oil prices for inflation, that Prez or official is talking through his hat, and no one with any brains should believe him. Or you, apparently.

Edited February 14, 2023 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,391]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

You are off the track again, the point of the study is that higher oil prices contribute nothing to the core rate of inflation, and therefore do not influence basic monetary policy decisions. If a politician is blaming high oil prices for inflation, that Prez or official is talking through his hat, and no one with any brains should believe him. Or you, apparently.

I find it difficult to accept that the price of fuel has zero effect on the "core rate of inflation".

Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services, but it does not include those from the food and energy. This measure of inflation excludes these items as those prices are volatile. It is most often calculated using the consumer price index (CPI), a measure of prices for goods and services in a "basket".

From the cost of petroleum-derived packaging, to the transportation fuel costs embedded within the cost of goods and services, and everything in between, there is an understandable lag in reflecting the the energy costs within those items.  Just because the cost of energy is not included in the core rate, does not imply it has zero effect on everything it otherwise touches.

Petroleum and energy are way too embedded in our economy to ignore.

Realize that the sun does not care about the price of energy.  It's cost is constant.

Edited February 14, 2023 by turbguy

[specinho + 439]

On 2/12/2023 at 11:13 PM, turbguy said:

There is more to solar photovoltaics than meets the eye.  The band-pass wavelength quantum efficiency (photons collected vs electrons generated) of panels can be adjusted to some degree.

Then, consider the solar spectrum, and see where the real content of solar irradiation wavelengths (power available) are, as shown below.

Then, consider the power available in the long wavelengths, which you can collect very well with solar heating systems.

 

Pardon my ignorant. Physics hasn't been my strength. Started late and barely passed. >.<

But...... I have been wondering....  ...

1. Photons collected vs electrons generated...

- if we assume reactions at the sun generate ray in the forms of...

a) alpha ray, Helium atom

b) beta ray, electron?

c) gamma ray, electromagnetic ray or electron with higher energy?

d) various intensity of colours

By photons, we must have meant electrons from beta and gamma ray?

These electrons have an ability to produce magnetic field when passing on a metal strip.

And then we channel the electrons into a battery to be kept?

Or used as electricity?

Electricity, afterall is moving electrons from one point to another, no?

If yes, could metal conductor be good enough in the panel, instead of silicone, a semiconductor only when melted...? 'o' '-'

And the battery........

I am certain somewhere of my assumption is incorrect.... But, just out of curiosity.....

 

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by specinho

[specinho + 439]

16 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Imagine you get sick and go to the doctor. The doctor says "your sickness will only be statistically significant for two months."

Does that mean you were never sick? 

Does "indistinguishable from zero" mean you fully recovered?

You might have not understood correctly....

1. "Positive correlation for two months and then near to zero" might mean

- you got sick,

- prices increase for two months,

- you recovered,

- government payouts, budget, policies, cause massive increment in prices in the following months and years...

2. It does not mean you were never sick or there is no correlation between oilprice and inflation. There is. At the beginning.

3. Yes, fully recovered. 

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

9 hours ago, turbguy said:

I find it difficult to accept that the price of fuel has zero effect on the "core rate of inflation".

Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services, but it does not include those from the food and energy. This measure of inflation excludes these items as those prices are volatile. It is most often calculated using the consumer price index (CPI), a measure of prices for goods and services in a "basket".

From the cost of petroleum-derived packaging, to the transportation fuel costs embedded within the cost of goods and services, and everything in between, there is an understandable lag in reflecting the the energy costs within those items.  Just because the cost of energy is not included in the core rate, does not imply it has zero effect on everything it otherwise touches.

Petroleum and energy are way too embedded in our economy to ignore.

Realize that the sun does not care about the price of energy.  It's cost is constant.

According to this study, the impact of higher oil prices on core rate of inflation is ZERO. Previous models showing any impact were defective.

[turbguy + 1,391]

On 2/14/2023 at 1:33 AM, specinho said:

Pardon my ignorant. Physics hasn't been my strength. Started late and barely passed. >.<

But...... I have been wondering....  ...

1. Photons collected vs electrons generated...

- if we assume reactions at the sun generate ray in the forms of...

a) alpha ray, Helium atom

b) beta ray, electron?

c) gamma ray, electromagnetic ray or electron with higher energy?

d) various intensity of colours

By photons, we must have meant electrons from beta and gamma ray?

These electrons have an ability to produce magnetic field when passing on a metal strip.

And then we channel the electrons into a battery to be kept?

Or used as electricity?

Electricity, afterall is moving electrons from one point to another, no?

If yes, could metal conductor be good enough in the panel, instead of silicone, a semiconductor only when melted...? 'o' '-'

And the battery........

I am certain somewhere of my assumption is incorrect.... But, just out of curiosity.....

 

 

Most of those non-photon particles you mention are stopped by the atmosphere.  For instance, an alpha particle (helium nucleus) is effectively absorbed via a sheet of paper, an electron (beta particle) is absorbed by the thickness of say, a thick bottle or a millimeter or two of aluminum.  Also, anything with a charge will be deflected by the earth's magnetic field.  Gamma rays (called "zoomies" in the Nuc industry) are VERY high energy photons (not charged) that are highly penetrating, and those are WAY off the chart (super blue) on the left (not very many).

Edited February 16, 2023 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,391]

13 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

According to this study, the impact of higher oil prices on core rate of inflation is ZERO. Previous models showing any impact were defective.

I do find it amazing that we can find a "study" to support whatever position we need to hold dear.

Take for example, the price if eggs.  Do you mean to infer the price of heating does not increase the cost of production?  Chickens do not lay eggs if it is cold.

Do mean to infer the price of transportation of feed, delivery of product, and packaging does not increase the cost of product?

What does your mind tell you?

Edited February 15, 2023 by turbguy

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

Well, Pakistan just said they will be quadrupling their coal capacity at minimum.

So much for the "miracles" of solar/wind being "cheap"

[TailingsPond + 460]

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

I do find it amazing that we can find a "study" to support whatever position we need to hold dear.

Take for example, the price if eggs.  Do you mean to infer the price of heating does not increase the cost of production?  Chickens don not lay eggs if it is cold.

Do mean to infer the price of transportation of feed, delivery of product, and packaging does not increase the cost of product?

What does your mind tell you?

Funny that the same people who think nothing can be made without oil seem to think the price of oil doesn't matter.

They also fail to notice that two months of sharply increased inflation followed by removal of the inflationary pressure does not put you back to the starting point. You would need two months of sharp deflation (which doesn't happen) to remove the price bump.

"increase in gasoline prices does cause a sharp increase in U.S. headline consumer price inflation (CPI), the response only persists for two months before becoming indistinguishable from zero."

Edited February 15, 2023 by TailingsPond

[notsonice + 1,063]

20 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

According to this study, the impact of higher oil prices on core rate of inflation is ZERO. Previous models showing any impact were defective.

do you actually believe your own BS??????

the impact of higher oil prices on core rate of inflation is ZERO????

Must be what they teach in economics at Trump U.....You do know that a Trump U education is worthless.

Putins whole attack in the Ukraine was coupled with his attack by restricting  energy supplies to Europe and cutting oil production with his pals in Saudi. Using nat gas and oil as a weapon of war......Ecomomic warfare with the side effects of inflation around the world...and you babble on about the impact of higher oil prices on core rate of inflation is ZERO......

Are you working for Team Putin?

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

17 hours ago, turbguy said:

I do find it amazing that we can find a "study" to support whatever position we need to hold dear.

Take for example, the price if eggs.  Do you mean to infer the price of heating does not increase the cost of production?  Chickens do not lay eggs if it is cold.

Do mean to infer the price of transportation of feed, delivery of product, and packaging does not increase the cost of product?

What does your mind tell you?

The study tells us that oil price changes do not impact the core rate of inflation, contrary to the claims of Biden & Co. That is not surprising if the price changes are not continuous over a long period. 

Does inflation remain continuous if there are price changes related to foreign exchange markets? No. The net effect is not continuous but one-time. Oil appears to work the same way.

",,,how would U.S. inflation have evolved after June 2019 if gas prices had remained at previously low levels? Well, CEPR has modeled this and found that inflation would only be moderately lower. For instance, in May 2022, higher gas prices added ~1.2 percentage points to the 12-month headline consumer price index inflation rate compared with an actual rate of 8.5%, an impact CEPR says can be safely ignored.

 

Source: CEPR"

Edited February 15, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 460]

You have now posted two sources yourself that say not zero.

"The net effect is not continuous but one-time."

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

3 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

You have now posted two sources yourself that say not zero.

"The net effect is not continuous but one-time."

 

You have a reading problem? 

"indistinguishable from zero."

That speaks for itself. Fluctuations in oil prices apparently have no impact on core inflation or on inflationary expectations. They have a short-term one-time impact only.

In other words, all the rhetoric from the Prez is empty bombast. Is he trying to imitate his predecessor? Looks like it. At least the previous guy was not fooled by defective climate models.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 460]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

That speaks for itself. Fluctuations in oil prices apparently have no impact on core inflation or on inflationary expectations. They have a short-term one-time impact only.

 

 

You can't write two sentences without contradicting yourself.

FYI fatal car crashes are a "one-time impact only."

Edited February 16, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

2 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

You can't write two sentences without contradicting yourself.

FYI fatal car crashes are a "one-time impact only."

You have reading comprehension problems...a short term consumer price impact with no long term core inflation impact...you cannot understand that? Man, you need another Econ 101 refresher.

Do you understand the significance of inflationary expectations, which are apparently not impacted by oil price fluctuations?

This is how Biden & Co. succeed in politics, exploiting public disinformation.

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Ecocharger

[specinho + 439]

On 2/14/2023 at 11:33 PM, turbguy said:

Most of those non-photon particles you mention are stopped by the atmosphere.  For instance, an alpha particle (helium nucleus) is effectively absorbed via a sheet of paper, an electron (beta particle) is absorbed by the thickness of say, a thick bottle or a millimeter or two of aluminum.  Also, anything with a charge will be deflected by the earth's magnetic field.  Gamma rays (called "zoomies" in the Nuc industry) are VERY high energy photons (not charged) that are highly penetrating, and those are WAY off the chart (super blue) on the left (not very many).

If we imagine atmosphere is made up of air molecules separated in a far distance, particles of pollutants in different levels of severity, and cloud, it might be safe to assume,  major common obstructor would be the cloud, particularly thick ones?

Recalling childhood favourite shape of sun, it has intermittent long and short lines around the circle. Some photos from nature show the visibility of ray in these forms under different conditions. Morning, or days with clouds, longer-clearer range of ray; clear sky, thin cloud, shorter-less visible ray. This phenomenon might mean radiation comes in at all times, unobstructed. Visible or invisible by the eyes.

Magnetic field in an old experiment might have attracted and accelerated the passage of electrons. Although deflected in path onto the detector, it might have not repelled it. Therefore, magnetic field on earth might be an attracting force, and reason why they are coming in in such a speed?

Another note is how light is converted into electricity in the eyes by proteins. Protein is known to exist in the form of zwitterion, with two charged ends, under normal pH. Only charged particles would be able to activate it and generate electricity. Therefore, negatively charged ray e.g. beta, gamma, might be possible stimulants.

If these assumptions can be tested, there could be a breakthrough in panel design and addressing problem of low efficiency?