GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/10/2022 at 10:46 AM, Ecocharger said:

Here is the brick wall which is blocking the Green Dream, and it will become a major impediment for any sizeable penetration of the EVs into the auto market.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Record-High-Lithium-Prices-Are-Here-To-Stay.html

"The price for lithium is hitting fresh record highs as the parabolic growth in the electrification of vehicles by major automakers increases demand.

Mining companies worldwide are scrambling to increase production and develop new sources of the world's lightest metal.

China, the largest battery-producing country, reported last week that the benchmark price of lithium carbonate was about 300,000 yuan (just over $47k per ton), an increase of about six times from January 2021. Soaring prices come as electric-car makers, such as Tesla, report exponential growth in the US, Europe, and China. 

Lithium is one of the essential elements in battery technology powering electric vehicles that steadily replace combustion engines. As the share of electric cars increases, demand for lithium will increase; thus, conventional wisdom would suggest lithium prices will remain elevated until the battery industry develops new mining projects to expand output. 

According to Bloomberg NEF, global electric car sales were about 5.6 million in 2021, up from 3.1 million in 2020. The significant increase in sales is due to soaring Chinese demand (as shown in the chart above). Further electric car sales in 2022 will only suggest the demand for lithium will outstrip production and deplete stockpiles, helping to keep prices high. "

The lithium itself will get cheaper and cheaper. What is the cost of the entire battery and vehicle. That will show when EVs become affordable. 

Edited January 12, 2022 by ronwagn
error

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, notsonice said:

Coal is increasingly important for America.???? you should open a coal mine or buy one......You will be richer than Elon Musk.....Ha ha ha ha ha . Really, you are not dealing with reality. Coal is having a dead cat bounce in the US only because its alternative Natural Gas is being exported en masse .....money money money......... . In 2022 any new coal fired power plants in the US ???????? 

• COAL | ELECTRIC POWER
•  
• 15 Dec 2021 | 22:16 UTC

US coal capacity to shrink 28% by 2035: EIA

HIGHLIGHTS

Coal-fired generation to drop 59 GW

Plant owners and operators self-report retirement plans

Most retiring units will have about 50 service years left

• •  

• Author
• Morgan Snook 
• Editor
• Aastha Agnihotri 
• Commodity
• Coal,  Electric Power

Coal-fired power plants don't have a mandatory retirement age but 28% currently operating have plans to halt operations by 2035, the EIA said Dec. 15. 

Planned retirement dates were reported to the EIA by power plant owners and operators. The announced retirements would reduce coal-fired capacity by 59 GW by 2035. By way of comparison, about 212 GW of coal-fired electric-generating capacity was operating in the US as of September 2021.

"The units that have reported plans to retire are not necessarily the oldest ones operating; some units built in the 1980s and 1990s are also scheduled to retire," the EIA said. "When they retire, the retiring units will have approximately 50 years of service, based on their planned retirement dates."

The average active coal-fired generating unit in the US is 45 years old, with most coal-burning power plants built in the 1970s and 1980s.

"Planned retirement dates within the next four to five years are considered relatively firm; retirements further in the future are subject to more regulatory and economic uncertainty," the EIA said.

 

All modern plants with good scrubbers should be kept and maintained until the future of wind turbines, solar, and natural gas supply is well over any power demand projections. The cost should be added to users power bills IMHO. That will give us time to continually assess present and future needs including the prices that are affordable to power our nation.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

11 hours ago, notsonice said:

Coal is increasingly important for America.???? you should open a coal mine or buy one......You will be richer than Elon Musk.....Ha ha ha ha ha . Really, you are not dealing with reality. Coal is having a dead cat bounce in the US only because its alternative Natural Gas is being exported en masse .....money money money......... . In 2022 any new coal fired power plants in the US ???????? 

• COAL | ELECTRIC POWER
•  
• 15 Dec 2021 | 22:16 UTC

US coal capacity to shrink 28% by 2035: EIA

HIGHLIGHTS

Coal-fired generation to drop 59 GW

Plant owners and operators self-report retirement plans

Most retiring units will have about 50 service years left

• •  

• Author
• Morgan Snook 
• Editor
• Aastha Agnihotri 
• Commodity
• Coal,  Electric Power

Coal-fired power plants don't have a mandatory retirement age but 28% currently operating have plans to halt operations by 2035, the EIA said Dec. 15. 

Planned retirement dates were reported to the EIA by power plant owners and operators. The announced retirements would reduce coal-fired capacity by 59 GW by 2035. By way of comparison, about 212 GW of coal-fired electric-generating capacity was operating in the US as of September 2021.

"The units that have reported plans to retire are not necessarily the oldest ones operating; some units built in the 1980s and 1990s are also scheduled to retire," the EIA said. "When they retire, the retiring units will have approximately 50 years of service, based on their planned retirement dates."

The average active coal-fired generating unit in the US is 45 years old, with most coal-burning power plants built in the 1970s and 1980s.

"Planned retirement dates within the next four to five years are considered relatively firm; retirements further in the future are subject to more regulatory and economic uncertainty," the EIA said.

 

Plans can and do change.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

The price of oil is being sustained partly by Green activists who target the fossil fuel industry.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Climate-Activists-Urge-PR-Agencies-To-Drop-Fossil-Fuel-Clients.html

"Clean Creatives, however, wants Edelman and other PR agencies to drop all fossil fuel clients that plan to expand their production of oil, gas, or coal, end work with all fossil fuel companies and trade groups that perpetuate climate deception, and cease all work that hinders climate legislation. 

Australian campaign group Comms Declare criticized the results of Edelman’s client review, saying that it “has everything except what matters most – dropping fossil fuel clients.”

“As you might expect from the world’s largest PR firm, Edelman’s announcement makes all the right noises but fails on concrete, measurable action,” said Belinda Noble, Founder, Comms Declare.

“If Edelman continues to represent companies like ExxonMobil and Viva Energy, it will only further entrench itself as the world’s largest apologist for the fossil fuel sector,” she added."

Edited January 11, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

31 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Plans can and do change.

They sure do. The closure dates for coal plants keep moving forward.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

All modern plants with good scrubbers should be kept and maintained until the future of wind turbines, solar, and natural gas supply is well over any power demand projections. The cost should be added to users power bills IMHO. That will give us time to continually assess present and future needs including the prices that are affordable to power our nation.

I would add, kept and maintained, but not operated unless necessary.  They may not be rapid response units, but older reasonably well maintained coal units might be ideal 'big emergency' response facilities because the fuel is a non degradable solid.  Just make sure the plant is in good operational shape with a giant pile of coal ready to use, and let it sit there until it's needed.  If everything else works well, they won't get used very often, but having them as a backup could prove very useful.  When they get activated to supply the grid, rotate which ones go on in a region so they all stay 'prepared' to generate if required, and to keep the 3rd party infrastructure for purchasing fuel for them in condition.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

They sure do. The closure dates for coal plants keep moving forward.

And the usage of coal keeps growing forward.

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So why is coal so huge here at 12.5?

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

The EV industry is running into a brick wall of rising input costs and consumer limitations. Only 3.2% of car sales last year were EVs and as a percentage of total vehicle stock EVs are a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 1%.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EV-Industry-Has-Convinced-Investors-Now-It-Needs-Consumers.html

"Yet the planned electric vehicle revolution that has had investors scrambling for EV maker stocks and companies pouring billions into new manufacturing capacity is not without its challenges. Batteries are a vital component of electric cars and the most expensive single component. While Ford is offering starting prices of $40,000 for the F-150 and GM has also said the Silverado will begin at $40,000, no one really buys basic models, do they? And the Silverado can cost up to $105,000.

Battery costs have been hailed as falling fast, but this is already changing as the market for metals and minerals swings into a deficit due to a lack of new production and long lead times for new mining projects. Demand for nickel, for example, one of the key battery metals for long-range vehicles, is forecast to soar 19-fold between now and 2040, and miners are already racing to secure supply.

There is also the thorny issue of local production. The Biden administration, like the Trump administration before it, has made a big deal out of stimulating local production. But with mining, it has been tricky, with opposition from environmental organizations about as fierce as it is against new oil and gas pipelines. This would mean continued reliance on imports and vulnerability to price swings, which would affect end prices and therefore appetite for EVs, even with federal and state subsidies.

Speaking of appetite, it remains a challenge regardless of enthusiastic reports about surging EV sales. For all the surges - and EV sales in the U.S. did surge by as much as 88 percent last year - they still account for a minuscule portion of total car sales, at 3.2 percent for last year.

Put simply, after winning the trust of investors, EV makers, including majors such as GM and Ford, need to win the trust of the average American driver. The recent GM total recall of Chevy Bolts after faulty batteries caused fires in several of them will not help in this endeavor, and neither will the lack of charging points across the country. A greater variety of models, on the other hand, will help."

Edited January 12, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

14 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

So why is coal so huge here at 12.5?

Because as the graphic clearly states, that is how much coal is getting shutdown in the US this year.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Because as the graphic clearly states, that is how much coal is getting shutdown in the US this year.

What we need is how much electricity is generated by coal, showing how it has increased this past year.

Oh, and incidentally, only 3.2% of car sales last year were EVs and as a percentage of total vehicle stock EVs are a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 1%.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

What we need is how much electricity is generated by coal, showing how it has increased this past year.

Well what you got is how much coal capacity is going to be shutdown this year and no new coal capacity is being added.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:40 PM, Ecocharger said:

The EV industry is running into a brick wall of rising input costs and consumer limitations. Only 3.2% of car sales last year were EVs and as a percentage of total vehicle stock EVs are a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 1%.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EV-Industry-Has-Convinced-Investors-Now-It-Needs-Consumers.html

"Yet the planned electric vehicle revolution that has had investors scrambling for EV maker stocks and companies pouring billions into new manufacturing capacity is not without its challenges. Batteries are a vital component of electric cars and the most expensive single component. While Ford is offering starting prices of $40,000 for the F-150 and GM has also said the Silverado will begin at $40,000, no one really buys basic models, do they? And the Silverado can cost up to $105,000.

Battery costs have been hailed as falling fast, but this is already changing as the market for metals and minerals swings into a deficit due to a lack of new production and long lead times for new mining projects. Demand for nickel, for example, one of the key battery metals for long-range vehicles, is forecast to soar 19-fold between now and 2040, and miners are already racing to secure supply.

There is also the thorny issue of local production. The Biden administration, like the Trump administration before it, has made a big deal out of stimulating local production. But with mining, it has been tricky, with opposition from environmental organizations about as fierce as it is against new oil and gas pipelines. This would mean continued reliance on imports and vulnerability to price swings, which would affect end prices and therefore appetite for EVs, even with federal and state subsidies.

Speaking of appetite, it remains a challenge regardless of enthusiastic reports about surging EV sales. For all the surges - and EV sales in the U.S. did surge by as much as 88 percent last year - they still account for a minuscule portion of total car sales, at 3.2 percent for last year.

Put simply, after winning the trust of investors, EV makers, including majors such as GM and Ford, need to win the trust of the average American driver. The recent GM total recall of Chevy Bolts after faulty batteries caused fires in several of them will not help in this endeavor, and neither will the lack of charging points across the country. A greater variety of models, on the other hand, will help."

Now you can get a Ford ICE truck for $20,000 base. Or two for $40,000. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/the-2420000-ford-maverick-is-a-bare-bones-pickup-truck-that-proves-less-really-can-be-more/ar-AASFEiu

Actually, this is available as a straight ICE for towing 4,000 pounds, or a PHEV?  Which I am shopping for, that gets great mileage. 

https://media.ford.com › content › fordmedia › fna › us › en › news › 2021 › 10 › 21 › epa-estimated-42-mpg-city-all-new-ford-maverick-hybrid.html

DEARBORN, Mich., Oct. 21, 2021 - The all-new 2022 Ford Maverick Hybrid pickup - the first standard hybrid pickup in America - is now officially America's most fuel-efficient hybrid pickup with an EPA-estimated rating of 42 mpg city. 1. The 2.5-liter hybrid has an EPA-estimated rating of 37 mpg combined, 33 mpg highway and an EPA ...

Edited January 16, 2022 by ronwagn
reference

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Well what you got is how much coal capacity is going to be shutdown this year and no new coal capacity is being added.

But coal production is up, especially with recent developments and cold weather.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

U.S. Saw Its 4th-Hottest Year On Record In 2021, Fueled By Record-Warm December

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/01/11/u-s-saw-its-4th-hottest-year-on-record-fueled-by-record-warm-december/

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

Study: The Uptake Of EVs In Europe Is About To Explode

One for @Jay McKinsey

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Study-The-Uptake-Of-EVs-In-Europe-Is-About-To-Explode.html

[notsonice + 1,069]

16 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Plans can and do change.

Plans can and do change.??? you planning on buying a coal mine this year???? you real be super rich??? ha ha ha

[notsonice + 1,069]

8 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

But coal production is up, especially with recent developments and cold weather.

dead cat bounce. Comparing an upswing to the crash in coal production during Pandemic 2020 is a fools game. Is coal production up compared to any year prior to 2020????? you will need to dig back to the early 1970's to find a year to use. 

[notsonice + 1,069]

12 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

So why is coal so huge here at 12.5?

because coal is being phased out, do you not understand what Jay presented??????

[notsonice + 1,069]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Study: The Uptake Of EVs In Europe Is About To Explode

One for @Jay McKinsey

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Study-The-Uptake-Of-EVs-In-Europe-Is-About-To-Explode.html

..........The uptake of electric cars in Europe's biggest car markets will accelerate over the next three years, with EVs overtaking internal combustion engine car sales by 2025.........Peak Oil at the summit right now??????? EVs over taking ICE sales ....there is no turning back.

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

5 minutes ago, notsonice said:

..........The uptake of electric cars in Europe's biggest car markets will accelerate over the next three years, with EVs overtaking internal combustion engine car sales by 2025.........Peak Oil at the summit right now??????? EVs over taking ICE sales ....there is no turning back.

I think in Europe yep almostly certainly. Globally not so much, I can see that still increasing up to 2030 and maybe 2035

[notsonice + 1,069]

9 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

But coal production is up, especially with recent developments and cold weather.

Looks like a heat wave is killing your cold weather and coal production...........38 degrees in Minot?????? it is usually only 20 degrees at this time of year.......

 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

dead cat bounce. Comparing an upswing to the crash in coal production during Pandemic 2020 is a fools game. Is coal production up compared to any year prior to 2020????? you will need to dig back to the early 1970's to find a year to use. 

Your graph is old - going to present, the production fell to 535 million tons in 2020:  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48696

A level last seen in the mid 1960's. 

 

It is most definately a dead cat bounce, as can be seen from this report in December of 2021:  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50620

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2021.12.21/chart3.svg

After the economic disaster which was 2020 and early 2021 it's hardly surprising that there has been some rebound.  That doesn't mean that a 'recovery' is coming for coal in general.  

Edited January 12, 2022 by Eric Gagen

[notsonice + 1,069]

46 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Your graph is old - going to present, the production fell to 535 million tons in 2020:  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48696

A level last seen in the mid 1960's. 

 

It is most definately a dead cat bounce, as can be seen from this report in December of 2021:  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50620

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2021.12.21/chart3.svg

After the economic disaster which was 2020 and early 2021 it's hardly surprising that there has been some rebound.  That doesn't mean that a 'recovery' is coming for coal in general.  

yes I know the chart is old.....2021 production will near 600 million tons...last seen in the early 70's....Nothing on the horizon to reverse the long term trend. Anyone rejoicing over a dead cat bounce will be disappointed that the cat is really dead and is headed further down in the long term. 2022 is not the time to be opening a steam coal mine in the US.