JM

GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

Recommended Posts

(edited)

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Ha! What idiocy. In volume terms this weights completely toward PEVs. PEVs make up a small fraction of the market but garnered half of the top ratings.

Weightings should be by volume of sales, to give a more accurate picture of actual market share.

Producing a vehicle for a niche market is less of an achievement, involving many fewer satisfied customers.

Edited by Ecocharger
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

Not quite skyrocketing, they are getting some bad publicity, enough to dissuade me from considering one of their products.

Their sales increased by 80% last year, definitely skyrocketing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Their sales increased by 80% last year, definitely skyrocketing. 

Again, 80% of what base?  You need to weight by market share.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

The oil and gas sector is into a major commodity super-cycle which will sustain for a decade or more, especially as the fundamental science basis of Green panic becomes exposed as flawed.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Calls-10-Year-Commodity-Supercycle.html

"Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have released their latest commodities update wherein they expect a medium-term deceleration in both demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth. 

Stanchart has projected demand to average 106.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, based on announced and likely government policies, which would leave demand well above the International Energy Agency (IEA) net-zero emission path, in which demand falls to 78.4mb/d by 2030.

Further, the analysts say all the incremental 5.2mb/d of demand from 2023 to 2026 is likely to come from non-OECD countries, with OECD demand forecast to average 45.8mb/d in 2026, 1.9mb/d less than in 2019 and 4.3mb/d below its 2005 peak.

The analysts say 2022 and 2023 are likely to be more of a challenge for OPEC than 2024 and beyond. The increase in the call on OPEC across 2022 and 2023 is put at 1.4mb/d, suggesting that a return of further Iranian volumes would leave little space for increases elsewhere in OPEC if it occurs before 2024. Luckily for the oil bulls, the outlook becomes tighter after 2023, with the call on OPEC increasing by 3.2mb/d from 2023 to 2026.

Stanchart has raised its 2022 Brent forecast USD 8/bbl to USD 75/bbl and its 2023 Brent forecast USD 17/bbl to USD 77/bbl."

Edited by Ecocharger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

37 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Weightings should be by volume of sales, to give a more accurate picture of actual market share.

Producing a vehicle for a niche market is less of an achievement, involving many fewer satisfied customers.

Every PEV on the list outsold the #1 Corvette and #2 Miata ICE models.

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, 80% of what base?  You need to weight by market share.

How dense can you get? The base is their previous year's sales. From 2020 to 2021 Tesla sales increased by 80%. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Every PEV on the list outsold the #1 Corvette and #2 Miata ICE models.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

How dense can you get? The base is their previous year's sales. From 2020 to 2021 Tesla sales increased by 80%. 

The market share of the vehicle, not percentage increase.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

42 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

 

The market share of the vehicle, not percentage increase.

I'm talking about skyrocketing sales of 80% YoY! If you want to make a post about market share, go right ahead.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

China is one year behind Europe and the US is two years behind China.

China passenger EV sales increased from 6.2% market share in 2020 to 15.5% in 2021. http://en.caam.org.cn/Index/show/catid/54/id/1656.html

 

 

What about India and many parts of the Indian sub continent, S.E Asia and most of S.America + then there is the whole of Africa?

Oil is going to be a key driver and on the increase in these territories IMO.

The US will be more than 2 years behind and never take up EV's like we have seen in Europe mainly due to the distances people need to travel, unless batteries can last 700 miles with aircon/heating on and recharge in 10-15 mins. if they manage that then thats a big game changer for areas like the US. However that isnt going to happen in 2 years Jay you need to get real sometimes.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

43 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

What about India and many parts of the Indian sub continent, S.E Asia and most of S.America + then there is the whole of Africa?

Oil is going to be a key driver and on the increase in these territories IMO.

The US will be more than 2 years behind and never take up EV's like we have seen in Europe mainly due to the distances people need to travel, unless batteries can last 700 miles with aircon/heating on and recharge in 10-15 mins. if they manage that then thats a big game changer for areas like the US. However that isnt going to happen in 2 years Jay you need to get real sometimes.

I said the US would be three years behind Europe. The US will be at 6% PEV market share this year, which is where China was in 2020. You are forgetting that a much higher percentage of the US population lives in single family homes that charge your car to 250 miles or more of range every morning. LIkewise, PEV ranges are increasing and BEV DC charging will be down to 10-15 mins in a few years.

World's fastest EV charging station promises a full battery in under 15 minutes

ABB will open the first station in Europe by the end of this year. Next year, it will expand to the US and around the world.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/fastest-ev-charging-station-full-battery/

Edited by Jay McKinsey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

China is one year behind Europe and the US is two years behind China.

"I said the US would be three years behind Europe."

Nope you definitely said 2 years Jay see above, please make up your mind!

Thats lovely about ABB and its 15 minute charging stations in Europe. Your article states the first 1 in Europe wont be built until the end of 2022! Just how quickly do you think it will take to have a functioning network across ther US? 5 years ? longer?

Edited by Rob Plant
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, Rob Plant said:

Nope you definitely said 2 years Jay!

China is one year behind Europe = 1 year

The US is two years behind China = 2 years

1+2 = 3 years behind Europe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

China is one year behind Europe = 1 year

The US is two years behind China = 2 years

1+2 = 3 years behind Europe.

Ok fair enough!

Edited by Rob Plant

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

LOL just realised your mistake?

I didn't make the mistake, you did. Try reading again. Had your coffee yet?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope ABB do move quickly but we have been talking about fast charging stations for 2-3 years now and I see standard charging stations everywhere but not superfast. There is the odd Tesla supercharging station at some service stations but in reality there are so few that you have to wait whilst others use them so people dont bother anymore.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

I didn't make the mistake, you did. Try reading again. Had your coffee yet?

Nope its still early for me, I'm a night owl kinda guy lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

"I said the US would be three years behind Europe."

Nope you definitely said 2 years Jay see above, please make up your mind!

Thats lovely about ABB and its 15 minute charging stations in Europe. Your article states the first 1 in Europe wont be built until the end of 2022! Just how quickly do you think it will take to have a functioning network across ther US? 5 years ? longer?

The network of fast chargers does not need to be completely built out for rapid EV growth to occur, particularly because so many people here can charge at home. The network will grow in tandem with EV sales. 

  • Downvote 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The network of fast chargers does not need to be completely built out for rapid EV growth to occur, particularly because so many people here can charge at home. The network will grow in tandem with EV sales. 

Yes but for US uptake of EV's by the masses requires a high degree in confidence on range.

Range anxiety is still a problem even in Europe and does stop many from buying EV's coupled with the higher price bracket.

The US would need superfast charging at every service station and plenty of them for this to be resolved.

Resolve that and bring the initial outlay cost for an EV down by 30-40% and youre probably home and hosed. But both are a very big ask and will take many years.

I believe you are waiting for EV's to drop to a reasonable level before taking the plunge and buying one and you must be EV's biggest fan.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Yes but for US uptake of EV's by the masses requires a high degree in confidence on range.

Range anxiety is still a problem even in Europe and does stop many from buying EV's coupled with the higher price bracket.

The US would need superfast charging at every service station and plenty of them for this to be resolved.

Resolve that and bring the initial outlay cost for an EV down by 30-40% and youre probably home and hosed. But both are a very big ask and will take many years.

I believe you are waiting for EV's to drop to a reasonable level before taking the plunge and buying one and you must be EV's biggest fan.

Yes but for US uptake of EV's by the masses requires a high degree in confidence on range.?????

 

no the EV's already have the range for the daily needs of most Americans.......IE Commutes of up to 100 miles round trip. It is all about the upfront cost.......and vehicle selection.....In my neck of the woods SUVs dominate (ice and snow) and all wheel drive vehicles are the rule. When EV prices start getting close to ICE vehicles prices for the same features IE style and functionality ICE vehicles will no longer have an advantage.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Proterra battery technology to power Vicinity Motor Corp. electric transit buses and work trucks

 
Proterra Inc.
Thu, January 13, 2022, 6:00 AM
The Proterra Powered Vicinity Lightning electric transit bus
The Proterra Powered Vicinity Lightning vehicle is expected to begin production in the third quarter of 2022.
 
The Proterra Powered Vicinity Lightning vehicle is expected to begin production in the third quarter of 2022.
The Proterra Powered Vicinity Lightning vehicle is expected to begin production in the third quarter of 2022.
  • Proterra and Vicinity Motor Corp. announce multi-year supply agreement to power the Vicinity Lightning™ and strip chassis platform for commercial electric vehicles with Proterra battery technology

  • Multi-year agreement expected to support next-generation heavy-duty electric transit bus as well as Class 3 and 5 work trucks

  • Includes battery supply for a minimum of 600 Vicinity commercial electric vehicles through 2024

  • Production of the Proterra Powered™ Vicinity Lightning vehicle expected to begin in Q3 2022

VANCOUVER, British Columbia and BURLINGAME, Calif., Jan. 13, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vicinity Motor Corp. (NASDAQ:VEV) (TSXV:VMC) (FRA:6LGA) (“Vicinity”), a North American supplier of commercial electric vehicles, and Proterra Inc (NASDAQ: PTRA) (“Proterra”), a leading innovator in commercial vehicle electrification technology, today announced a new collaboration to power Vicinity’s electric transit buses and work trucks with Proterra’s industry-leading battery technology.

- ADVERTISEMENT -

Under a new, multi-year supply agreement, Proterra battery systems will power the Vicinity Lightning 28-foot electric transit bus and Vicinity’s strip chassis platform to support several commercial vehicle configurations such as utility trucks, shuttle buses, and box trucks. The agreement is also expected to support Vicinity’s next-generation heavy-duty electric transit bus as well as the VMC 1200 Class 3 work truck and VMC 1500 Class 5 work truck with Proterra battery systems.

Proterra contracted to supply Vicinity with battery systems to power a minimum of 600 Vicinity commercial electric vehicles through 2024. The Proterra Powered Vicinity Lightning vehicle is expected to begin production in the third quarter of 2022.

“We are pleased to announce this new commercial relationship with Proterra, a true battery technology leader,” said William Trainer, Founder and CEO of Vicinity. “I look forward to working closely with the Proterra team to make our vehicles, equipped with their advanced battery systems, a staple in North American public transportation and industrial spaces.”

Proterra batteries will be used in the production of Vicinity Lightning electric transit vehicles at Vicinity’s Ferndale, Washington manufacturing facility. Designed for the U.S. and Canadian markets, the Vicinity Lightning will comply with Buy America requirements for Federal Transit Administration-funded programs in the United States.

“Cities and towns across North America are driving towards a future with clean air and a healthier environment for our kids and future generations. The question now is no longer if communities will transition to zero-emission, battery-electric transportation, but how fast we can get there. Together with Vicinity, we are excited to build on this innovative spirit as we bring more clean transportation solutions to the communities we live in and serve,” said Gareth Joyce, CEO of Proterra.

Designed and manufactured in the United States, Proterra battery packs leverage industry-leading energy density and a customizable design to fit within a variety of vehicles. Proterra’s best-in-class battery systems have been proven through more than 20 million service miles driven by Proterra transit vehicles across North America and selected by world-class commercial vehicle manufacturers to power school buses, work trucks, construction equipment, and more.

About Proterra

Proterra is a leader in the design and manufacture of zero-emission electric transit vehicles and EV technology solutions for commercial applications. With industry-leading durability and energy efficiency based on rigorous U.S. independent testing, Proterra products are proudly designed, engineered, and manufactured in the United States, with offices in Silicon Valley, South Carolina, and Los Angeles. For more information, please visit www.proterra.com.

About Vicinity

Vicinity Motor Corp. is a North American supplier of EVs for both public and commercial enterprise use. The Company leverages a dealer network and close relationships with world-class manufacturing partners to supply its flagship electric, CNG and clean-diesel Vicinity buses, the VMC 1200 electric truck and a VMC Optimal-EV shuttle bus. In addition, the Company sells its proprietary electric chassis alongside J.B. Poindexter business unit EAVX, the Company’s strategic partner, for upfitting into next-generation delivery vehicles. For more information, please visit www.vicinitymotorcorp.com.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Grid gets bigger one transmission line at a time...Hooking up Windy Wyoming to California

 

Ethan HowlandSenior Reporter...Utility Dive

Wind developer joins $3B transmission project poised to be 'backbone' for Western power markets

Published Dec. 7, 2021
 

 

14c1892a5d4db2036ccba2a550c50b37.jpg 
Chuck Schug Photography via Getty Images

Dive Brief:

  • TransWest Express has agreed to sell Power Company of Wyoming (PCW) 1,500 MW of capacity on a transmission line slated to run from Wyoming to southern Nevada, where power can reach California markets, according to a Friday filing at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

  • The agreement between the Anschutz Corp.'s affiliated subsidiaries is another milestone for the $3 billion transmission project that could provide the Southwest with low-cost wind energy, diversifying the West's power supplies and facilitating power markets, according to experts in the region. PCW is building a 3,000-MW wind farm in Wyoming.

  • "If we have a larger, regional market in the West ... this transmission line could be a means or a backbone in providing additional capability to transfer energy," Vijay Satyal, Western Resource Advocates (WRA) regional energy markets manager, said.

 
Dive Insight:

The bi-directional TransWest Express project is slated to run from Sinclair, Wyoming, to the Eldorado substation in southern Nevada where the line could deliver about 1,500 MW to the California Independent System Operator system.

The project, which has been under development since 2005, includes a 3,000-MW, 500-kV direct current line from Wyoming to Delta, Utah, and 1,500-MW, 500-kV, alternating current line from the Utah terminal to south of Las Vegas.

Screenshot_2021-12-07_7.42.18_AM.png
Permission granted by Transwest Express LLC
 

An open season for capacity on the transmission project ended last month with PCW as the only eligible participant in the process, according to the filing at FERC. PCW is building the Chokecherry and Sierra Madre (CCSM) wind farm in south-central Wyoming, which has some of the best wind resources in the United States.

TransWest asked FERC to accept the solicitation results by Feb. 2 "to provide commercial certainty as soon as possible." TransWest plans to start building the transmission project in 2022 and bring it online in 2025. With all major permits in hand, the project is essentially shovel-ready, according to the company.

There is "significant market interest in the high volume of cost-competitive, geographically diverse, clean electricity that the CCSM project can provide," Kara Choquette, PCW and TransWest director of communications and government relations, said in an email Monday. The discussions are confidential, she said.

The project could provide multiple benefits, according to Ron Lehr, a consultant with Western Grid Group, an advocacy organization, and WRA's Satyal.

"This is a very valuable project that captures the resource diversity of the West," Satyal said. "It will be able to harness the wind energy resources in Wyoming and in the intermountain West and bring it down to the Southwest. It will also be able to move excess solar energy from Arizona and Nevada, which is home to a lot of solar rich resources, and potentially take it back up."

If built, the project would enhance the value proposition for a wholesale energy market in the West, according to Satyal. 

"One of the reasons why a wholesale energy market in the West has not been easily justified or easy to pencil out in benefits is that you have higher costs of transmission and energy delivery due to limited infrastructure," Satyal said. "A project like this would allow more capability and more flexibility for utilities to transact in an open organized market."

California would benefit from market development in the West, according to Lehr. 

"California gets access to all kinds of juicy resources around the region that are going to be at times, in different circumstances, more economic than what they can do for themselves," Lehr said, noting wind from Wyoming could be in the $10/MWh range.

However, one of the barriers to market expansion in the West and to PCW finding customers for its power is pressure from labor unions in California that want to limit out-of-state generation so they can build in-state facilities, according to Lehr.

Lehr said California would benefit from out-of-state projects.

"If you look forward at the mountain we have to climb to get enough clean energy to run the California economy, and the rest of the West, that means there's going to be lots of development in California and lots of jobs, but also lots of development elsewhere that feeds into California," Lehr said. "It has got to be a benefit to California to move that transition forward in the most effective way possible."

Pointing to the benefits of geographic diversity for California, Lehr said: "The wind in Wyoming fits right in, the right way, at the right time, with the right price. And we have the transmission. So we're going to take advantage of that."

Also, infrastructure development in California is difficult and expensive, according to Lehr.

"It's hard to site stuff if you're in the same place with 38 million people," Lehr said. "Every place is sacred to somebody.

Despite its potential benefits, the TransWest project, under development for about 18 years, also shows how hard it is to build interstate power lines in the West.

 

 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I'm talking about skyrocketing sales of 80% YoY! If you want to make a post about market share, go right ahead.

The growth percentages need to be weighted by market share, otherwise they are without meaning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I said the US would be three years behind Europe. The US will be at 6% PEV market share this year, which is where China was in 2020. You are forgetting that a much higher percentage of the US population lives in single family homes that charge your car to 250 miles or more of range every morning. LIkewise, PEV ranges are increasing and BEV DC charging will be down to 10-15 mins in a few years.

World's fastest EV charging station promises a full battery in under 15 minutes

ABB will open the first station in Europe by the end of this year. Next year, it will expand to the US and around the world.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/fastest-ev-charging-station-full-battery/

Home charging is many years away from possible in the U.S., the electrical grid infrastructure is non-existent to support widespread home charging.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, notsonice said:

Yes but for US uptake of EV's by the masses requires a high degree in confidence on range.?????

 

no the EV's already have the range for the daily needs of most Americans.......IE Commutes of up to 100 miles round trip. It is all about the upfront cost.......and vehicle selection.....In my neck of the woods SUVs dominate (ice and snow) and all wheel drive vehicles are the rule. When EV prices start getting close to ICE vehicles prices for the same features IE style and functionality ICE vehicles will no longer have an advantage.  

EVs will never be cost-competitive with ICE for equivalent levels of comfort and cache.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.