Boat + 1,222 RG January 26 54 minutes ago, ronwagn said: Where does battery storage fit into the equation in the future? Renewables with batteries can handle all non critical electrical needs including electric cars and air conditioning. They can also handle base load if your far enough south to avoid winter storms like in Texas. A state or area would have to be aware of floods, hurricanes etc. I am no expert at determining how much nat gas reserve margin that sits around and does nothing waiting on a 10 year flood. Nat gas still seems to be the best option. Just don’t have Texas manage it. The state needs to let the public decide. Like we can supply 2 days worth of electricity with the grid and batteries for this price. If you want 10 days of reserve margin it would be x price. Instead of name calling being practical would be smarter. I don’t think politicians are smart enough to think like that though. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 857 DL January 27 (edited) 4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said: I got into the article. My point is it's rising slowly (and unevenly - it has NOT been a steady rise for 7 years) but still below the high (from 10 years ago) and that's with this massive effort and incredibly high prices. If they do in fact beat their previous high, then I'll happily concede, but I really don't think they can. The issue is not beating all-time highs, but whether or not Chinese coal production is increasing for the long haul. It clearly is, and the reduced environmental commitment of China and India at the recent conference makes that clear. Edited January 27 by Ecocharger 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,092 January 27 4 hours ago, ronwagn said: Please flesh out your last paragraph. I do not understand it. The hybrids are coming as soon as Ford can make them. I had to reconsider waiting for one. The next Maverick will be a 2023. The hybrid and the Ecoboost are both in high demand. By the way it also put a end to Ford's hybrid/EV tech...Another shit storm. The above is your concern? That was merely a reference to the past, Ford at one time developed the Escape and the Fusion using hybrid/EV tech. They were both unsustainable and Ford dropped both platform's Alan Mulally Fords new CEO [2005/2006] implemented Ecoboost tech as the future not green tech. The current move back to EV's will not be shut down with the same speed..LMAO at least I don't believe so. Below Everything was green. Mulally thought that was odd for a company losing billions.” https://www.markerbench.com/blog/2013/02/21/Mulally-leadership/ 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eric Gagen + 711 January 27 1 hour ago, Boat said: Renewables with batteries can handle all non critical electrical needs including electric cars and air conditioning. They can also handle base load if your far enough south to avoid winter storms like in Texas. A state or area would have to be aware of floods, hurricanes etc. I am no expert at determining how much nat gas reserve margin that sits around and does nothing waiting on a 10 year flood. Nat gas still seems to be the best option. Just don’t have Texas manage it. The state needs to let the public decide. Like we can supply 2 days worth of electricity with the grid and batteries for this price. If you want 10 days of reserve margin it would be x price. Instead of name calling being practical would be smarter. I don’t think politicians are smart enough to think like that though. I can’t think of many issues that would be worse for the public to do than vote on electrical grid reserve margins. It’s technically obscure, subject to heavy lobbying by groups who want it to be a small number, difficult to calculate what a good or bad number is, and by the time you figure out you got It wrong, it will be years (maybe even a decade or two) before you can undo the mess, while dealing with electricity shortages all along the way. This is a classic sort of example of a problem that really does need to be properly organized and set up by a boring panel of expert economists and engineers. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 January 27 1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said: I can’t think of many issues that would be worse for the public to do than vote on electrical grid reserve margins. It’s technically obscure, subject to heavy lobbying by groups who want it to be a small number, difficult to calculate what a good or bad number is, and by the time you figure out you got It wrong, it will be years (maybe even a decade or two) before you can undo the mess, while dealing with electricity shortages all along the way. This is a classic sort of example of a problem that really does need to be properly organized and set up by a boring panel of expert economists and engineers. Politicians would probably have to be sold on it by industry leaders who really care about the continued reliability of the system under stress. Possible problems involve fires, sabotage, weather, unexpected demand etc. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 January 27 The best solution for large long range trucks, buses, and RVs. http://www.ngvglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Growth-NGVs-to-end-2019.jpg Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 January 27 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Era-of-Cheap-Renewables-Grinds-To-A-Halt.html 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,040 RP January 27 13 hours ago, Eric Gagen said: Personally I don't think it is either, and I would be happy to pay a 'surcharge' say an extra 10% on my electric bill each month for grid hardening, redunant power plants, fuel stocks, etc. Sadlly the average member of the public disagrees, literally violently (as witnessed with protests and riots in Europe over high utility bills) with you and I, and the people who run utility companies will do the absolute minimum to meet legal requirements of this sort, because they are regulated, and don't get to charge extra for improvements beyond the letter of the law. Eric in Europe household utility bills have been going up steadily year on year by 10% or more in many cases. The reason people are literally rioting in the streets now is because they are set to go up 50% or more, old people are going to die as they cant afford to heat their homes, poorer people become poorer or homeless. I'm sure any nation would have riots in the streets if that happenened in their backyard. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,092 January 27 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Rob Plant said: Eric in Europe household utility bills have been going up steadily year on year by 10% or more in many cases. The reason people are literally rioting in the streets now is because they are set to go up 50% or more, old people are going to die as they cant afford to heat their homes, poorer people become poorer or homeless. I'm sure any nation would have riots in the streets if that happenened in their backyard. The severity of the energy crisis in the EU is being severely hidden by the press It is my own opinion it is the very foundation for Putin barnstorming the Ukraine. Where else in the world is the EU going to get gas to power their grid. The guy is bullet proof and he is well aware of it. This green movement is virtually pulling back the world to medieval times. Where Is Germany in the Ukraine Standoff? Its Allies Wonder. Germany’s allies have begun to question what price Berlin is prepared to pay to deter Russia, and even its reliability as an ally, as it wavers on tough measures. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/25/world/europe/germany-russia-nato-ukraine.html Edited January 27 by Eyes Wide Open 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,040 RP January 27 11 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said: The severity of the energy crisis in the EU is being severely hidden by the press It is my own opinion it is the very foundation for Putin barnstorming the Ukraine. Where else in the world is the EU going to get gas to power their grid. The guy is bullet proof and he is well aware of it. This green movement is virtually pulling back the world to medieval times. Where Is Germany in the Ukraine Standoff? Its Allies Wonder. Germany’s allies have begun to question what price Berlin is prepared to pay to deter Russia, and even its reliability as an ally, as it wavers on tough measures. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/25/world/europe/germany-russia-nato-ukraine.html EWO that is spot on! The energy crisis in Europe is only going to get worse and Putin has Germany (the EU powerhouse) over a barrel or maybe that should be over a gas pipeline or 2. 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Richard D + 86 RD January 27 3 hours ago, Rob Plant said: EWO that is spot on! The energy crisis in Europe is only going to get worse and Putin has Germany (the EU powerhouse) over a barrel or maybe that should be over a gas pipeline or 2. The Smart Alec president of France greatly aggravated the energy problem in Europe,for his own glory. He thought that he could count on his nuclear power until a couple of reactors broke down at the worst possible time and left France needing fossil-fueled power. Goldman-Sachs are making billions in energy speculation,at the public expense. Emmanuel Macron used to work for Goldman-Sachs. What a coincidence! 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,222 RG January 27 12 hours ago, Eric Gagen said: I can’t think of many issues that would be worse for the public to do than vote on electrical grid reserve margins. It’s technically obscure, subject to heavy lobbying by groups who want it to be a small number, difficult to calculate what a good or bad number is, and by the time you figure out you got It wrong, it will be years (maybe even a decade or two) before you can undo the mess, while dealing with electricity shortages all along the way. This is a classic sort of example of a problem that really does need to be properly organized and set up by a boring panel of expert economists and engineers. Public voting may be a step to far. But I would disagree it should be technically obscure. That’s why you need experience at the helm with mandated reports. You can’t have a cheap reserve and a resilient long duration reserve. This is what I have learned. You think politicians have? Now what is the right course? Ignore the delima like they did 10 years ago and rely on obscurity and luck? How many dead and how many billions damage can be avoided for what price. Seems like a reasonable question. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gkam44 + 14 January 27 I love it when Climate Deniers go nuts. It is a local trip. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gkam44 + 14 January 27 Being a former engineer for a large power company and having earned a Master of Science in Energy and the Environment, I had PV panels installed six years ago, with my estimated payback of 15-17 years, . . the right thing for an eco-freak to do. Before they could be installed, we acquired a VW e-Golf electric car. The savings in gasoline alone took the solar system payback down to 3 1/2 years. So, we added a used Tesla Model S, P85, and that took the payback down to less than three years, which means we now get free power for household and transportation. But that is not all: We do not need to go to gas stations, we fuel up at home at night with cheap baseload power. During the daytime, the PV system turns our meter backwards powering the neighborhood with clean local power, which we trade for the stuff to be used that night. If we paid for transportation fuel, the VW would cost us 4 cents/mile to drive, and the Tesla would cost 5 cents/mile at California off-peak power prices. No oil changes are a real treat along with no leaks. And since it has an electric motor, it needs NO ENGINE MAINTENANCE at all. We do not go "gas up", or get tune-ups or emissions checks, have no transmission about which to worry, no complicated machined parts needing care. The future got here a few years ago, but many were too busy screaming political nonsense. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,040 RP January 27 Yeah weve heard this several times before mate. Have you got nothing else to say? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eric Gagen + 711 January 27 4 hours ago, Boat said: Public voting may be a step to far. But I would disagree it should be technically obscure. That’s why you need experience at the helm with mandated reports. You can’t have a cheap reserve and a resilient long duration reserve. This is what I have learned. You think politicians have? Now what is the right course? Ignore the delima like they did 10 years ago and rely on obscurity and luck? How many dead and how many billions damage can be avoided for what price. Seems like a reasonable question. Best course for the society, or best course for the politicians? Because the answers are different. Society is better off reasonably well prepared, but for at least some of the politicians they arguing to decide they are better off doing something else. A large chunk of politicians are driven by an ideology which views energy as evil. Another large chunk is greedy and old, and will happily do something else with the money if it profits them now - after all they are likely to be retired in 10 years so they don’t face any consequences for their actions. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 626 DM January 27 19 hours ago, Ecocharger said: The issue is not beating all-time highs, but whether or not Chinese coal production is increasing for the long haul. It clearly is, and the reduced environmental commitment of China and India at the recent conference makes that clear. Chinese coal production is increasing for the long haul???? same could have been said in 2012.......What happened ????? now with China pushing renewables hard and over 150 pumped storage projects in planning/construction your babble will end up as just BS babble PS....China is targeting 62GW of operational pumped-hydro facilities by 2025 and 120GW by 2030. Currently, it has 30.3GW of operational pumped-hydro stations...... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,222 RG January 27 (edited) 1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said: Best course for the society, or best course for the politicians? Because the answers are different. Society is better off reasonably well prepared, but for at least some of the politicians they arguing to decide they are better off doing something else. A large chunk of politicians are driven by an ideology which views energy as evil. Another large chunk is greedy and old, and will happily do something else with the money if it profits them now - after all they are likely to be retired in 10 years so they don’t face any consequences for their actions. Why can’t a politician just say the truth. The grid is built for x. If we add enough batteries for a day it will cost x on your bill. Hypothetically that gives the state reserve capacity for 3 days. After that you need to be in a motel out of the storm area. The idea politicians even have a say is offensive to me. They blew it and the power needs to be yanked from their grasp. Hell we pay pay the bills. I was a manager in factories for a couple decades. I wasn’t allowed to f*ck up like that. I was expected to know my shyt. Edited January 27 by Boat 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 626 DM January 27 (edited) Please note the dead cat bounce in coal in 2021 January 18, 2022 New renewable power plants are reducing U.S. electricity generation from natural gas Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2022 In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that rising electricity generation from renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power plants over the next two years. The forecast share of generation for U.S. non-hydropower renewable sources, including solar and wind, grows from 13% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. We forecast that the share of generation from natural gas will fall from 37% in 2021 to 34% by 2023 and the coal share will decline from 23% to 22%. One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind. The amount of solar power generating capacity operated by the U.S. electric power sector at the end of 2021 is 20 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and U.S. wind power capacity is more than twice what it was 10 years ago. Another significant shift in the generation mix has been a steady decline in the use of coal-fired power plants since their peak output in 2007 and the increasing use of natural gas, primarily as a result of sustained low natural gas prices. However, that trend reversed in 2021 when the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.88 per million British thermal units, more than double the average cost in 2020. As a result, the share of generation from natural gas declined from 39% in 2020 to 37% last year, while the share of generation from coal rose for the first time since 2014 to average 23%. In our current STEO, we forecast that most of the growth in U.S. electricity generation in 2022 and 2023 will come from new renewable energy sources. We estimate that the electric power sector had 63 gigawatts (GW) of existing solar power generating capacity operating at the end of 2021. We forecast solar capacity will grow by about 21 GW in 2022 and by 25 GW in 2023. We expect that 7 GW of wind generating capacity will be added in 2022 and another 4 GW in 2023. Operating wind capacity totaled 135 GW at the end of 2021. Our forecast of growth in renewable electricity generation over the next two years leads to our forecast of a reduced need for fossil-fueled generation. Although we expect natural gas prices for electric generators to decline, the operating costs of renewable generators will continue to be generally lower than natural gas-fired units. We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation. Principal contributor: Tyler Hodge Edited January 27 by notsonice 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 January 27 22 hours ago, Boat said: I told you not to call me a greenie, lol. National security trumps pollution and climate change. That’s where I draw the line. Nuke in GA yet another Republican disaster filled with promises and government money with incomplete results and 10 years late and counting. I am not against the idea of nuclear. But the problems of waste and cost need to be solved. Solve that and that’s a great base-load if you have the long term water to spare. Democrats often supported nuclear before the green dream came. I don't know of any prominent politician that still does. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,222 RG January 27 2 hours ago, notsonice said: Please note the dead cat bounce in coal in 2021 January 18, 2022 New renewable power plants are reducing U.S. electricity generation from natural gas Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2022 In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that rising electricity generation from renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power plants over the next two years. The forecast share of generation for U.S. non-hydropower renewable sources, including solar and wind, grows from 13% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. We forecast that the share of generation from natural gas will fall from 37% in 2021 to 34% by 2023 and the coal share will decline from 23% to 22%. One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind. The amount of solar power generating capacity operated by the U.S. electric power sector at the end of 2021 is 20 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and U.S. wind power capacity is more than twice what it was 10 years ago. Another significant shift in the generation mix has been a steady decline in the use of coal-fired power plants since their peak output in 2007 and the increasing use of natural gas, primarily as a result of sustained low natural gas prices. However, that trend reversed in 2021 when the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.88 per million British thermal units, more than double the average cost in 2020. As a result, the share of generation from natural gas declined from 39% in 2020 to 37% last year, while the share of generation from coal rose for the first time since 2014 to average 23%. In our current STEO, we forecast that most of the growth in U.S. electricity generation in 2022 and 2023 will come from new renewable energy sources. We estimate that the electric power sector had 63 gigawatts (GW) of existing solar power generating capacity operating at the end of 2021. We forecast solar capacity will grow by about 21 GW in 2022 and by 25 GW in 2023. We expect that 7 GW of wind generating capacity will be added in 2022 and another 4 GW in 2023. Operating wind capacity totaled 135 GW at the end of 2021. Our forecast of growth in renewable electricity generation over the next two years leads to our forecast of a reduced need for fossil-fueled generation. Although we expect natural gas prices for electric generators to decline, the operating costs of renewable generators will continue to be generally lower than natural gas-fired units. We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation. Principal contributor: Tyler Hodge As coal is replaced and electric car production grows I would guess nat gas would grow market share until that process is complete. It will be interesting to watch. Then there is new demand that has to be filled also. Location will play a role. The south and windy areas will match with batteries. In the North nat gas might do better with batteries. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,222 RG January 27 41 minutes ago, ronwagn said: Democrats often supported nuclear before the green dream came. I don't know of any prominent politician that still does. We’ll the plant being built in Georgia is making them look like fools. Who can afford the electricity. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 857 DL January 27 (edited) 13 hours ago, Rob Plant said: Eric in Europe household utility bills have been going up steadily year on year by 10% or more in many cases. The reason people are literally rioting in the streets now is because they are set to go up 50% or more, old people are going to die as they cant afford to heat their homes, poorer people become poorer or homeless. I'm sure any nation would have riots in the streets if that happenened in their backyard. You can thank the Green Dreamers and the panicked politicians who bought into the climate hysteria propaganda for this fiasco...they deserve punishment at the next elections. Edited January 27 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 857 DL January 27 2 hours ago, notsonice said: Please note the dead cat bounce in coal in 2021 January 18, 2022 New renewable power plants are reducing U.S. electricity generation from natural gas Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2022 In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that rising electricity generation from renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power plants over the next two years. The forecast share of generation for U.S. non-hydropower renewable sources, including solar and wind, grows from 13% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. We forecast that the share of generation from natural gas will fall from 37% in 2021 to 34% by 2023 and the coal share will decline from 23% to 22%. One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind. The amount of solar power generating capacity operated by the U.S. electric power sector at the end of 2021 is 20 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and U.S. wind power capacity is more than twice what it was 10 years ago. Another significant shift in the generation mix has been a steady decline in the use of coal-fired power plants since their peak output in 2007 and the increasing use of natural gas, primarily as a result of sustained low natural gas prices. However, that trend reversed in 2021 when the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.88 per million British thermal units, more than double the average cost in 2020. As a result, the share of generation from natural gas declined from 39% in 2020 to 37% last year, while the share of generation from coal rose for the first time since 2014 to average 23%. In our current STEO, we forecast that most of the growth in U.S. electricity generation in 2022 and 2023 will come from new renewable energy sources. We estimate that the electric power sector had 63 gigawatts (GW) of existing solar power generating capacity operating at the end of 2021. We forecast solar capacity will grow by about 21 GW in 2022 and by 25 GW in 2023. We expect that 7 GW of wind generating capacity will be added in 2022 and another 4 GW in 2023. Operating wind capacity totaled 135 GW at the end of 2021. Our forecast of growth in renewable electricity generation over the next two years leads to our forecast of a reduced need for fossil-fueled generation. Although we expect natural gas prices for electric generators to decline, the operating costs of renewable generators will continue to be generally lower than natural gas-fired units. We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation. Principal contributor: Tyler Hodge Out of date....renewables are going up in the cost of inputs, not affordable for the general public purse. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eric Gagen + 711 January 27 2 hours ago, Boat said: Why can’t a politician just say the truth. The grid is built for x. If we add enough batteries for a day it will cost x on your bill. Hypothetically that gives the state reserve capacity for 3 days. After that you need to be in a motel out of the storm area. The idea politicians even have a say is offensive to me. They blew it and the power needs to be yanked from their grasp. Hell we pay pay the bills. I was a manager in factories for a couple decades. I wasn’t allowed to f*ck up like that. I was expected to know my shyt. The easiest answers to your questions are also the saddest, and most likely to be correct: Many politicians don't know what the 'grid' is. Many of their voters don't know either. whatever number X is, a certain number of people will be against it, no matter how much explaining you do, because X costs money A solid portion of people (somewhere between 30 and 50% if I had to make a wild engineering guess) don't know where electricity comes from past 'the wall' or 'the electric company'. And they vote. As the manager of a factory you were expected to produce results of some sort, which was measured, and which you were held accountable for. The objective of politicians is to get re-elected. Any results other than that are superfluous. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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