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GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

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3 hours ago, notsonice said:

Chinese coal production is increasing for the long haul???? same could have been said in 2012.......What happened ????? now with China pushing renewables hard and over 150 pumped storage projects in planning/construction your babble will end up as just BS babble  PS....China is targeting 62GW of operational pumped-hydro facilities by 2025 and 120GW by 2030. Currently, it has 30.3GW of operational pumped-hydro stations......

 

China Coal Production

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months, that is about 20% increase in only a part of one year.

Furthermore, the government has ordered closed coal mines to reopen...that is HUGE.

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8 minutes ago, Boat said:

As coal is replaced and electric car production grows I would guess nat gas would grow market share until that process is complete. It will be interesting to watch. Then there is new demand that has to be filled also. Location will play a role. The south and windy areas will match with batteries. In the North nat gas might do better with batteries. 

In the US at least, it appears that growth of natural gas as a generating fuel for electricity is already over.  I expect it will have a 'long tail' however because it's easy to transport, the plants to burn it in are quick and cheap to construct, and you can turn them on and off in an instant.  Peaker plants which are basically giant grid scale versions of backup generators for whatever else is on the system. 

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(edited)

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months, that is about 20% increase in only a part of one year.

Furthermore, the government has ordered closed coal mines to reopen...that is HUGE.

That's a 55 million tons a year capacity added in the last few months - not 55 million tons a month.  That's not 20% That's 1.5%, since China's annual coal production is in the range of 3,800 tons a year.

Edited by Eric Gagen
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3 hours ago, Boat said:

Why can’t a politician just say the truth. The grid is built for x. If we add enough batteries for a day it will cost x on your bill. Hypothetically that gives the state reserve capacity for 3 days. After that you need to be in a motel out of the storm area. The idea politicians even have a say is offensive to me. They blew it and the power needs to be yanked from their grasp. Hell we pay pay the bills. 
 

I was a manager in factories for a couple decades. I wasn’t allowed to f*ck up like that. I was expected to know my shyt. 

I am making this a seperate response, because it's quite different from my previous one.  How big does X have to be to have significant political effects?  

George H.W. Bush (senior) ran for re-election in 1992.  In his first term in 1988 he pledged no new taxes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Read_my_lips:_no_new_taxes But he raised taxes in 1991 shortly before the '92 election.  It is widely understood that he lost the presidency and Clinton gained it as a result of breaking this pledge.  You may assume that this was a tsunami of new taxation, but it wasn't  https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/91-92inintrts.pdf Scroll down the page 4 of the PDF (page 61 of the original scan) and you can see that between 1991 and 1992 (when the tax rise took effect) the effect for the average filer was an increase of $203 - about $17 a month.  That's the threshold of pain that causes dire consequences to what had previously been a brilliant political career.  I live in a town which switched trash pickup service companies over a difference of $2 a month per household, in spite of overwhelmingly high customer satisfaction - less is less, and never mind any other factors!   

 

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27 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Out of date....renewables are going up in the cost of inputs, not affordable for the general public purse.

It's a week old and here it is in real terms:

 Minnesota co-op credits clean energy transition for stabilizing wholesale rates

Great River Energy, Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative, recently announced that it would not be raising rates for 2022, and it credited wind investments and a shift from coal power.

BY: FRANK JOSSI, ENERGY NEWS NETWORK - JANUARY 27, 2022 6:54 AM

windmills.jpg

A decade-long shift from coal to wind power is helping to stabilize rates for Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative.

Great River Energy isn’t alone among consumer-owned utilities forgoing rate increases for 2022, but the power wholesaler is unique in the region for crediting its clean energy transition for leveling off its prices.

“Wholesale rate stability is incredibly important to our member systems in greater Minnesota that are seeing sharp increases in other costs,” Great River Energy President and CEO David Saggau said. The utility sells power to 28 local utilities, 20 of which will see declining rates this year.

Although Minnesota’s investor-owned utilities have sought rate increases, University of Minnesota associate professor Gabe Chan warns comparing them to generation and transmission cooperatives is challenging because they operate on different business models. Clean energy, he said, has been good for all utilities.

“I’ve got a bunch of studies showing that clean energy is keeping the energy costs low, and more wind and solar are just going to keep those energy costs lower and lower,” Chan said. https://minnesotareformer.com/2022/01/27/a-minnesota-co-op-credits-clean-energy-transition-for-stabilizing-wholesale-rates/

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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It's a week old and here it is in real terms:

 Minnesota co-op credits clean energy transition for stabilizing wholesale rates

Great River Energy, Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative, recently announced that it would not be raising rates for 2022, and it credited wind investments and a shift from coal power.

BY: FRANK JOSSI, ENERGY NEWS NETWORK - JANUARY 27, 2022 6:54 AM

windmills.jpg

A decade-long shift from coal to wind power is helping to stabilize rates for Minnesota’s largest generation and transmission cooperative.

Great River Energy isn’t alone among consumer-owned utilities forgoing rate increases for 2022, but the power wholesaler is unique in the region for crediting its clean energy transition for leveling off its prices.

“Wholesale rate stability is incredibly important to our member systems in greater Minnesota that are seeing sharp increases in other costs,” Great River Energy President and CEO David Saggau said. The utility sells power to 28 local utilities, 20 of which will see declining rates this year.

Although Minnesota’s investor-owned utilities have sought rate increases, University of Minnesota associate professor Gabe Chan warns comparing them to generation and transmission cooperatives is challenging because they operate on different business models. Clean energy, he said, has been good for all utilities.

“I’ve got a bunch of studies showing that clean energy is keeping the energy costs low, and more wind and solar are just going to keep those energy costs lower and lower,” Chan said. https://minnesotareformer.com/2022/01/27/a-minnesota-co-op-credits-clean-energy-transition-for-stabilizing-wholesale-rates/

Going forward, it looks bad for renewable energy costs. It won't take long to be reflected in rates.

""Solar panel prices had surged by more than 50 percent in the past 12 months alone. The price of wind turbines is up 13 percent and battery prices are rising for the first time ever"

  • "
Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

Here is what is driving up energy prices, activist Green Dreamers attempting to panic the society into ill-judged decisions on energy investment.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Are-Activist-Investors-To-Blame-For-High-Oil-Prices.html

"Oil companies have been extremely slow to turn on the taps, despite higher prices and tightening supply.

Companies are focused on boosting shareholder value and appeasing activist investors.

Global oil supply is falling short of demand, and whatever the morals of fossil fuels, most investors invest not because it’s the moral thing to do but because they want to make money."

Edited by Ecocharger

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2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

 

Eric, here is the passage.

"The world's biggest producer and consumer of the dirty fossil fuel churned out 357.09 million tonnes of coal last month, up from 334.1 million tonnes in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

Output over the first 10 months of 2021 was 3.3 billion tonnes, up 4% year-on-year.

Since July, China has approved expansions at more than 153 coal mines, which could add 55 million tonnes of coal output in the fourth quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said last month."

So, it seems to me that the percentage is 55/357 which is about 15.4 %, which is a huge increase in output. And no, that 55 million tonnes is not just capacity, but actual output.

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(edited)

It looks like the price of fossil fuels is being accelerated upward by...get this....COLD WEATHER.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Climb-Most-Ever-In-A-Single-Day.html

"U.S. natural gas futures surged 72% just ahead of expiration of the February contract

The huge spike in the February contract is a clear sign that bearish bets were being squeezed out of the market

Cold weather in many parts of the United States have boosted demand for the energy commodity"

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

10 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Eric, here is the passage.

"The world's biggest producer and consumer of the dirty fossil fuel churned out 357.09 million tonnes of coal last month, up from 334.1 million tonnes in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

Output over the first 10 months of 2021 was 3.3 billion tonnes, up 4% year-on-year.

Since July, China has approved expansions at more than 153 coal mines, which could add 55 million tonnes of coal output in the fourth quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said last month."

So, it seems to me that the percentage is 55/357 which is about 15.4 %, which is a huge increase in output. And no, that 55 million tonnes is not just capacity, but actual output.

I can see how the wording of the article makes it possible to read it that way, but a little research and logic suggests that it's not possible.  If it were true, that would be the headline "15% increase in Chinese coal output" instead the headline was about the 4-6% output rise - the biggest and most important number.  Another 'tell' is that if it were true, it would represent an increase far in excess of anything that has ever been accomplished in the past.  During the best years of most rapid economic growth, China never managed such a rapid increase. A third sign that it's not a monthly number is to look at demand for coal in China - their economy doesn't have the need for that much extra coal.  Finally, if the increase were that large, you would expect the futures price of coal in China to crash (since it would now be oversupplied beyond it's capacity to burn it for a profit) and for there to be articles about the collapse of the coal export business in Indonesia, but neither thing has happened.  Therefore, it's logical to conclude that the increase is in tons per year, not per month.  

Until it has actually been mined and accounted for, the 55 million tons is capacity - not output.  Capacity is theoretical ability to produce in the present or in the future - output is what is actually happening in the present, or what happened already.  Never equate future capacity with actual output, becuse there are too many unexpected things that can happen between the two.  The actual output may be above or below the planned capacity additions.  

Edited by Eric Gagen
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Echocharger will not look at the numbers and attempt to put them in historical context. It’s like the goldfish that reboots and, surprise, what have we here. The motivation for spin by the entire human race is so silly and stupid. But silly and stupid we are. From time to time I allow myself to get partisan but that weakness is a shame and not warrented by logic and simple common sense. I want to thank Eric Gagne for maybe the best discussion on the Texas storm and the affects on Texas citizens, It seemed fair and reasoned. I could tell he made the attempt to look for “root” causes and the difficulties of possible fixes.

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Tha

18 minutes ago, Boat said:

Echocharger will not look at the numbers and attempt to put them in historical context. It’s like the goldfish that reboots and, surprise, what have we here. The motivation for spin by the entire human race is so silly and stupid. But silly and stupid we are. From time to time I allow myself to get partisan but that weakness is a shame and not warrented by logic and simple common sense. I want to thank Eric Gagne for maybe the best discussion on the Texas storm and the affects on Texas citizens, It seemed fair and reasoned. I could tell he made the attempt to look for “root” causes and the difficulties of possible fixes.

Thank you @Ecocharger

I cared about the winter storm for a lot of reasons:

  • I was in it
  • As an engineer, I find failure analysis extremely interesting
  • I would rather not deal with that particular set of circumstances again 

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14 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

It looks like the price of fossil fuels is being accelerated upward by...get this....COLD WEATHER.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Climb-Most-Ever-In-A-Single-Day.html

"U.S. natural gas futures surged 72% just ahead of expiration of the February contract

The huge spike in the February contract is a clear sign that bearish bets were being squeezed out of the market

Cold weather in many parts of the United States have boosted demand for the energy commodity"

Or you can look at the EIA web site and see nat gas right in the middle of the 5 year average chart. 
 

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Another chart shows nat gas production at 5 year highs. 

 

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

 

I say we bill Russia for the rise in FF. Give it to our producers and quit flaring. Lol Now that’s a plan. 

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21 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months, that is about 20% increase in only a part of one year.

Furthermore, the government has ordered closed coal mines to reopen...that is HUGE.

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months????? 55 million over the last year???? not a leap or bound when their output is essentially the same as 2012 and 2013. This is HUGE????? Dude Coal is not being embraced everywhere , in fact it is being shunned everywhere...except in North Korea.

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8 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

I can see how the wording of the article makes it possible to read it that way, but a little research and logic suggests that it's not possible.  If it were true, that would be the headline "15% increase in Chinese coal output" instead the headline was about the 4-6% output rise - the biggest and most important number.  Another 'tell' is that if it were true, it would represent an increase far in excess of anything that has ever been accomplished in the past.  During the best years of most rapid economic growth, China never managed such a rapid increase. A third sign that it's not a monthly number is to look at demand for coal in China - their economy doesn't have the need for that much extra coal.  Finally, if the increase were that large, you would expect the futures price of coal in China to crash (since it would now be oversupplied beyond it's capacity to burn it for a profit) and for there to be articles about the collapse of the coal export business in Indonesia, but neither thing has happened.  Therefore, it's logical to conclude that the increase is in tons per year, not per month.  

Until it has actually been mined and accounted for, the 55 million tons is capacity - not output.  Capacity is theoretical ability to produce in the present or in the future - output is what is actually happening in the present, or what happened already.  Never equate future capacity with actual output, becuse there are too many unexpected things that can happen between the two.  The actual output may be above or below the planned capacity additions.  

Well, Eric, the article also points out that the government has ordered all closed coal mines to reopen. That is one huge number of mines, and one huge amount of additional coal.

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(edited)

38 minutes ago, notsonice said:

Coal production in China is increasing by leaps and bounds...55 million tonnes in just the past few months????? 55 million over the last year???? not a leap or bound when their output is essentially the same as 2012 and 2013. This is HUGE????? Dude Coal is not being embraced everywhere , in fact it is being shunned everywhere...except in North Korea.

Nonsense, coal is hot right now, take a look at this. All-time high usage of coal.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Japans-Coal-Imports-Soar-Amid-Surging-Natural-Gas-Prices.html

"LNG prices for March delivery rose this week by more than 17 percent to $27.00 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu), industry sources told Reuters on Friday. The Russia-Ukraine crisis and the cold weather in Japan were the key drivers of the jump in LNG prices to northeast Asia for March.

The record-high natural gas prices over the past months have forced utilities in many countries, including in developed economies such as Japan and in Europe, to seek to replace gas-fired power generation with coal-fired power plants.

The economic rebound from the pandemic took coal power generation to a new record high in 2021, with global coal demand likely hitting another new high in 2022, undermining net-zero efforts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last month. The global recovery in 2021 dashed any hopes that coal-fired power generation may have peaked, the IEA said."

Edited by Ecocharger

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Europe must get serious about renovating homes to ease energy crisis

As prices rise and Russia threatens to ration supply, the EU urgently needs to cut its gas consumption

Before the gas price crisis — and before the pandemic and the highest inflation in decades — 50m Europeans, or one in four households, were already struggling to afford heating. Even those families not personally threatened by energy poverty were directly affected. Gas companies across Europe have folded or shut their doors to new customers. In one case in the Netherlands, 90,000 customers saw their bills suddenly double after their provider was taken over.

Brussels has already pledged a “renovation wave” as part of the EU Green Deal. Now it is time for member states to launch this in earnest. Shortly before the end of last year, the European Commission proposed new legislation to renovate the most energy-hungry buildings ahead of yet another EU leaders’ meeting that discussed the energy price crisis. There is about €1.8tn available, including €670bn from the recovery fund, a third of which is earmarked for climate action. Surveys show that people want to live in energy-efficient homes, and they are looking to their government to speed the transition to greener buildings.

We need to match this political will and public desire with a credibly financed vision of the warm and affordable homes we want to live in, and with the laws and policies to make it happen.

Brussels Response: Crickets.

https://www.ft.com/content/a0dab19e-1b76-49fa-90aa-4973c7ba7341

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https://www.euractiv.com/section/electric-cars/news/for-many-europeans-the-electric-vehicle-revolution-is-a-mirage/

For many Europeans, the electric vehicle revolution is a mirage

Businesses account for a large portion of the electric vehicle uptake, taking advantage of financial incentives aimed at encouraging the move away from polluting vehicles. Corporate fleets make up around 20% of vehicles in Europe.

Financial incentives

Across the bloc, governments are encouraging the purchase of electric vehicles by rolling out tax breaks and subsidies.

But average consumers, unable to draw on corporate accountants and lawyers, often struggle to follow the complex requirements.

In Spain, the government has allocated more than €400 million to incentivise the purchase of electric vehicles and the installation of charging stations. However, the scheme has been criticised for requiring purchasers to advance 100% of the initial investment.

This system of incentives has proven of little help to middle- and low-income consumers, who find it difficult to advance the higher upfront price, particularly given that it is unknown when the financial aid will arrive. EURACTIV understands that many who availed of the system in 2020 are still awaiting reimbursement a year later.

Furthermore, the management of the reimbursement takes place at a regional level, which has caused delays in its implementation.

Romania has the highest eco-bonuses in Europe to support the purchase of an electric or hybrid vehicle at €10,000, but even with the subsidy the price remains outside of the range of most consumers.

The cheapest EV model in Romania is priced above €30,000, an onerous cost in a market where four times more second-hand cars are registered than new purchases each year.

Similarly, the average electric vehicle price in Bulgaria is between 50% and 75% higher than the fossil fuel alternative in the same class, with the price increasing if a customer opts for a larger battery with more range.

The southeastern European country currently has about 3,400 registered fully electric cars and over 15,000 hybrids. To boost this nascent market, the Bulgarian government has scrapped taxes for electric cars.

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Why Europe's energy prices are soaring and could get much worse

Citizens in countries like Spain, Italy, France and Poland are now facing all-time-high energy bills that add to the economic woes caused by the pandemic. The popular discontent has put governments on high alert, with ministers scrambling to come up with emergency measures, even if they're short-term and only partially effective to cushion the impact.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/28/why-europe-s-energy-prices-are-soaring-and-could-get-much-worse

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EV sales break records in Europe

Despite an overall declining automotive market, European EV sales have increased by 113% since beginning of 2020 compared to the same period last year, with a total number exceeding 900,000 plugin hybrid vehicles sold to date. Looking at the month of October only, CleanTechnica reports on a 13% market share for plugin vehicles in Europe (6.5% market shares for full electrics).

https://www.eba250.com/ev-sales-break-records-in-europe/

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(edited)

On 1/28/2022 at 2:47 PM, Ecocharger said:

Well, Eric, the article also points out that the government has ordered all closed coal mines to reopen. That is one huge number of mines, and one huge amount of additional coal.

They didn't order all closed coal mines to re-open.  They ordered 155 (or 145 can't recall) recently closed mines to reopen.  Those mines were shut down because they were small scale and inefficient users of labor.  They will increase employment in coal mining by a measurable degree, but not production.  The numbers of mines and their output often have NOTHING to do with one another.  The largest single mines like Black Thunder or North Antelope are individually capable of producing more than 100 million tons a year of coal. 

1920px-Coal_Seam_at_Coal_Mine.png

A cut at North Antelope - the entire thing from top to bottom is coal, from just below the roots of the grass, to the floor (and slightly below) ~ 110 ft/30 meters thick.  

 

By contrast,  many 'artisanal' mines of the sort the Chinese have been shutting down, or which used to exist in Pennsylvania in the early 20th century in the US might produce 50,000 or 100,000 tons a year under perfect conditions, and basically consist of a hole in the ground and a group of poor workers with picks and other hand tools who haul the coal up in baskets or backpacks.  The only thing comparable about them is the word coal in the organization of the setup.  

Edited by Eric Gagen
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(edited)

When will UP and BNSF announce they are putting windmills and solar panels alongside its tracks......They own the right of way and can string power poles without having to buy or lease land

 

Union Pacific orders ten Wabtec FLXDrive battery-electric locomotives, the largest investment by a North American railroad

Scooter Doll

- Jan. 28th 2022 1:03 pm PT

 

@SCOOTERDOLL

 

 
 
Wabtec-FLX-Drive-Union-Pacific.jpg?quality=82&strip=all&w=1600

 

North American railroad Union Pacific announced it has purchased ten FLXDrive battery-electric locomotives from manufacturer Wabtec. The purchase marks the largest number of FLXDrives placed in a single order for Wabtec, as well as the largest investment in battery-electric locomotives by a North American railroad (Union Pacific)North American railroad (Union Pacific).

Union Pacific Railroad ($UNP) is one of the longest-tenured railroads in North America, having been founded in 1862. It currently operates over 8,000 locomotives across 23 of the Western United States, including Illinois and Louisiana.

Union Pacific considers trains the most environmentally-friendly means to transport freight and has recently made further vows to help reduce its own greenhouse gas emissions. This past December, the American railroad published its first comprehensive Climate Action Plan, outlining efforts to significantly reduce emissions throughout its operations.

As part of that plan, UP plans to reduce its Scope 1 and 2 emissions 26% by 2030, and achieve net zero emissions by 2050. That’s why a purchase from Wabtec makes a lot of sense. Wabtec Corporation ($WAB) is a manufacturer and freight company with over 150 years of expertise in locomotives.

Last June, Wabtec began a California pilot program with its FLXdrive battery-electric freight locomotive. Since the FLXDrive has been commercialized, Wabtec has already seen four orders from railroads including Canadian National Railway (CN) and Rio Tinto in Australia.

Wabtec’s fifth order from Union Pacific is the largest for electric locomotives to date.

Union Pacific electric locomotive Wabtec’s FLXDrive electric locomotive from the front / Source: Wabtec Corp.

Union Pacific orders ten electric locomotives for its rail yards

The new purchase from Wabtec was announced earlier today by Union Pacific, along with a statement from the railroad. Chairman, President, and CEO of Union Pacific, Lance Fritz spoke:

Railroads are already the leader in low emissions ground transportation, and we believe battery-electric locomotives are the next step in our journey to eventually reach net zero. This first phase of testing will further enhance the technology, and, ultimately, benefit the entire industry.

To begin, Union Pacific plans to use the FLXDrive electric locomotives to upgrade its rail yard infrastructure. This is a different approach to Wabtec’s previous FLXDrive customers, who plan to use the locomotives for mainline service.

According to the press release, the ten FLXdrives will enable Union Pacific to eliminate 4,000 tons of carbon from its rail yards each year, which is equivalent to removing 800 cars from the highway. Rafael Santana, President and CEO for Wabtec, also spoke to UP’s purchase:

As an industry leader, Union Pacific is pioneering a major application of battery power in its rail yards. Battery power is an ideal solution to reduce the environmental impact and costs of yard operations. Using the FLXdrive in the rail yard can significantly improve local air quality, as well as reduce noise by up to 70% for neighboring communities.

The electric locomotives will be manufactured in the US, and the first units are expected to reach Union Pacific in late 2023.

Edited by notsonice
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On 1/27/2022 at 2:54 PM, Ecocharger said:

Out of date....renewables are going up in the cost of inputs, not affordable for the general public purse.

NIT: IF you live in a desert, solar is a slam dunk bud.  Been true for at least 5 years even if you have to go completely off grid with giant battery bank. 

PS: It is currently cheaper to buy an ENTIRE F150 Lightning truck and use its ability to back feed your home at 9kW, than to buy Tesla power walls.  It is literally 2X cheaper.  Hell, buy 2 F150 Lightnings... 98kWh of battery per PU Truck for $40k. 

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